276
FXUS62 KGSP 071738
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1238 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WHILE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. SFC RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THOUGH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AS THICKNESSES RISE AND
CIRRUS MOVES TO OUR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
FRIDAY. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS COVERED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TONIGHT WITH S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC.
EVEN THOUGH SKIES WILL BE MCLEAR OVERNIGHT...RISING THICKNESS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE U30S-L40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH 30S IN THE MTNS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILD ALONG
THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING A SLIGHT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION/BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/INCREASED THICKNESS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM MAXES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MANY AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE MTN VALLEYS COULD SEE
THE LOWER 70S. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MAY MODERATE TEMPS JUST A BIT. ALTHOUGH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO SETTLE TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...FROST/FREEZE WILL NOT BE A CONCERN DURING THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A SW TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST RESULTS IN COMPLETE BREAKDOWN/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM IDA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP IT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT THIS SCENARIO.
CONSIDERING ITS TRACK RECORD AND SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...IT
APPEARS THE GFS IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH A CONSERVATIVE POP
FORECAST. WE WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
TUESDAY...BUT HAVE ACTUALLY TEMPERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH.
AFTER LINGERING TOKEN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED BY DRY/COOL
HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...SKC WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10
KTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT SSW
DEVELOPING SUN MORN. THE EXCEPTION IS KAVL WHERE WINDS SUN WILL
START OUT LIGHT NLY. FOG LIKELY AGAIN AT KCEU AND THE LAKE NEAR
KAND. VALLEY FOG MORE LIKELY IN THE NC MTNS. GUIDANCE MIXED IF ANY
OF THIS FOG WILL AFFECT KAND OR KAVL. WILL KEEP FCST VFR FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS SEE IF ANY TRENDS DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATE VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. EXPECTED AREAS OF MRNG FOG...MAINLY NEAR RIVERS AND
LAKES. COLD FRONT MOVES IN TUE WITH CHC SHWRS AND CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. FRONT MOVES EAST WED WITH VFR RETURNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...RB/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH
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