812  
FXUS62 KGSP 060602  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
202 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY  
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL  
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PATTERN  
FEATURINGSCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF  
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD  
NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 145 AM MON...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA  
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STARTING TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS  
NEWD...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW AS  
A BROADER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST  
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER  
THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH RADAR RETURNS EVEN DIMINISHING OVER THE NC  
MTNS. MESO MODELS GENERALLY FEATURE NO NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER  
DAWN. SO FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING  
ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING  
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING. HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.  
 
AS OF SUNDAY AFTN...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON  
MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION  
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY  
DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH  
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE  
TROUGH. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR  
ALOFT IN PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE  
RATES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL  
DRY AIR WRAPPING IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS  
SHOULD ARISE. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND  
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER  
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING  
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER  
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN  
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED  
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING  
NORTH OF OUR AREA.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER  
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR  
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL  
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL  
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING  
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.  
 
ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN  
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD  
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER  
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG  
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME  
HEATING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM  
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE  
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA  
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...  
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA  
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE  
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE  
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING  
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.  
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE  
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING  
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS  
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES  
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL  
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY  
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS  
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY  
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND  
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING  
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.  
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR  
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY  
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE  
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND  
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING  
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.  
 
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL  
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED  
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW  
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.  
 
CONFIDENCE TABLE...  
 
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z  
KCLT HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KHKY HIGH 94% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KAND HIGH 99% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
 
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING  
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY  
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS  
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY  
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY  
SHORT TERM...JAT  
LONG TERM...JAT  
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY  
 
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