860  
FXUS62 KGSP 241058  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
658 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION  
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 655 AM...FCST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.  
 
AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING  
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN  
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL  
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES  
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY  
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO  
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE  
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN  
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO  
FRESHEN WORDING.  
 
FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL  
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A  
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A  
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO  
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS  
CAA AND WIND.  
 
TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER  
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS  
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID  
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE  
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF  
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE  
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE  
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND  
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST  
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS  
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER  
40S EAST.  
 
ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND  
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF  
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A  
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN  
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT  
SFC WINDS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER  
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A  
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF  
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW  
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY  
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS  
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK  
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT  
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL  
TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES  
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID  
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY...THEN GENERALLY CLEAR BY THIS  
EVENING THRU TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU  
THIS MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CALM WIND  
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF FOG...ESP AT KAVL. I  
WILL ADD A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP  
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-  
053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NED  
NEAR TERM...ARK  
SHORT TERM...NED  
LONG TERM...NED  
AVIATION...ARK  
 
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