618  
FXUS62 KGSP 011310  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
910 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED OVER THE CAROLINAS  
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. TO  
THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST  
ALLOWING DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA.  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER  
CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BERMUDA STRENGTHENS TO OUR  
EAST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AT 910 AM EDT...AN UPPER LOW REMAINED OVER EASTERN CANADA...WITH A  
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE GULF COAST. A  
SHORTWAVE WAS EXITING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS...  
WHILE ANOTHER WAS DIVING INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS RIVER  
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING  
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH ALMOST NO  
ACTIVITY IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  
 
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING NEAR  
THE COAST TODAY...WITH ROBUST MOISTURE EXTENDING INLAND OVER THE  
BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS THE PIEDMONT...AND LESSER MOISTURE WEST TO  
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...BUT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS  
BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVED YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA  
STILL RECOVERING FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED FLOODING  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF  
THE WILL BE CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO  
LINGERING CLOUD COVER.  
 
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SE OF THE FA OVERNIGHT...  
ROBBING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS DEEP CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE  
COAST. MINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID TO UPPER  
60S NON/MTNS AND L60S MTN VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON  
SATURDAY WITH THE WET PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE  
APPALACHIANS THRU THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD EARLY  
NEXT WEEK...DEAMPLIFY A BIT...AND TAKE ON A MORE POSITIVE TILT.  
 
ON SATURDAY...AS THE WEDGE PATTERN PERSISTS DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL  
REMAIN OVER THE CWFA WITH THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS  
INDICATE THAT THE GREATEST QPF IS MORE LIKELY SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING  
AS NUMEROUS LOBES OF PVA ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND OVER THE  
FCST AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE  
SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST ANOTHER QUARTER TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL OVER  
THE CWFA BY EARLY SUN.  
 
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE  
WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE NW BUT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER  
THE NC PIEDMONT WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. OVERALL QPF POTENTIAL DOES  
NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE OVER MOST OF THE CWFA WITH THE GREATEST  
AMOUNTS LIKELY JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE STALLED BNDY.  
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP COULD OF COURSE SHIFT DEPENDING ON HOW  
FAR SOUTH THE BNDY ACTUALLY MAKES IT. AT ANY RATE...I KEPT POPS AT  
HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH VALUES TAPERING  
OFF FROM THE NW TO SE BY THE END OF MY PERIOD 12Z MONDAY. TEMPS WILL  
VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS  
NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1220 AM FRIDAY...THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z  
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE  
APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE ZONAL  
WEST TO EAST FLOW IN MID WEEK. AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN...A WEAK  
UPPER LOW WILL BE LEFT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE  
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN MID WEEK...OUR AIRMASS WILL  
BECOME DRIER AND TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. ON MONDAY...THE  
STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT FROM NRN FL TO ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST  
WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THE  
TROPICAL LOW BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS OUT  
TOWARD BERMUDA ON TUESDAY AS IT TURNS FROM NW TO N THEN NE AVOIDING  
THE EAST COAST. BY WED AND THUR WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME  
PATTERN OF PM TSTORMS FAVORING THE MTNS WITH LESS OUT OVER THE  
PIEDMONT. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE  
THURS...BUT MOST EFFECTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE  
CURRENT FORECAST.  
 
MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN REBOUND  
TO NEAR NORMAL WED AND THURS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO COME AND GO  
AT CLT THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED LOW OF CIGS MVFR...POSSIBLY  
IFR... THROUGH 16Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC  
HEATING WILL BE SLOW. THE TAF REMAINS PESSIMISTIC WITH MVFR CIGS  
EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY THEN A DROP BACK IFR LATE ARND 03Z. THUNDER  
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30 MENTION AFT 21Z.  
 
ELSEWHERE...A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON THE  
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN LOW  
MVFR...IF NOT IFR...THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR CIGS. KAND SHOULD REMAIN  
VFR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM  
THE WEST. OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY TEMPO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE  
DAY...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDER  
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR VCTS MENTION ALL SITES THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
CONFIDENCE TABLE...  
 
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z  
KCLT MED 67% MED 75% MED 69% HIGH 90%  
KGSP MED 76% MED 78% MED 64% MED 62%  
KAVL MED 77% MED 64% HIGH 82% HIGH 82%  
KHKY HIGH 80% HIGH 93% MED 74% HIGH 85%  
KGMU MED 78% MED 76% MED 61% LOW 49%  
KAND MED 69% MED 65% LOW 51% LOW 59%  
 
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING  
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE  
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE  
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THE PLANNING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS DUE  
TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JPT  
NEAR TERM...JAT/SBK  
SHORT TERM...JPT  
LONG TERM...DEO  
AVIATION...SBK  
FIRE WEATHER...JAT  
 
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