277
FXUS62 KILM 250547
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1247 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE FROM FRIDAY AND EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING BACK MILDER AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...OVERCAST...COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS AT
PRESENT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK WEDGE FORMATION REMAINS IN
PLACE. MAY SEE THIS PATTERN BREAK DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS SYSTEM
BREWING OVER FLORIDA FURTHER ORGANIZES AND MAKES ITS WAY UP THE
COAST. OFF CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SNEAK INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG...BY DAYBREAK.
NOT COUNTING ON IT HOWEVER. SOME OF OUR EXPECTED FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS OCCURRING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
FURTHER NARROW OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WED MORNING. THE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST...ALONG WEAK COASTAL TROF...PASSING EAST OF
THE CAPE FEAR REGION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. 12Z NAM/GFS SPREAD
SOME PRECIP OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING
IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. THEY ALSO DEVELOP A LITTLE BIT
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO
HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS NC. THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A DRY FORECAST AS HAS THE ECMWF WITH BOTH
KEEPING THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THESE IDEAS...SCALED BACK POPS INLAND BUT DID
GO WITH AN INCREASE FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK AND COASTAL NEW
HANOVER/PENDER. STILL KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE HERE...BUT ON
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR COASTAL SC...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS IN NC COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION TO A DIFFICULT POP FORECAST CLOUDS AND TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN FULL CLOUD AND FULL SUN.
FARTHER FROM THE COAST TEMPS ON WED COULD RUN 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAT WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST SHOULD SKIES CLEAR. COAST WILL
REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER...EVEN IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.
CLOUDS THIN THU MORNING AND HEIGHT FALL A LITTLE...LOWS WILL STILL
END UP ABOVE CLIMO...BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.
SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THANKSGIVING RESULT IN A DRY AND
SEASONABLE DAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU
NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER TROF MOVING IN. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL
DEGREES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...BUT COLD AIR FUNNELING IN WILL RESULT IN LOWS
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH REGARDS TO THE
EXTENDED AS THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE LATTER PERIODS BECOMING DOMINATED
BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE WIDESPREAD 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP PHASING AT THE
MID LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ALLOWS A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
INCREASED POPS A BIT HERE BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEDGE WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KLBT AND KFLO. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KMYR/KCRE/KILM WILL BE INTERSPERSED WITH PERIODS OF LOW END MVFR.
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING. THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN ALONG THE
COAST ALSO...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
EDGES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ENDING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING VARIABLE INLAND WEDNESDAY...WITH
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE IFR THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...WEAK GRADIENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MEANS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY...WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO RUN IN THEIR PRESENT 2 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE FLOW ON WED WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY WITH A MARGINAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. SPEEDS WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 KT
LATE WED INTO THU AS LOW PASSES EAST OF WATERS AND BECOMES MORE
DEVELOPED. FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE AS LOW EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THU. NOT MUCH OF A BUILD UP IN SEAS WED NIGHT INTO THU DESPITE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS...DURATION OF STRONGER WINDS IS TOO SHORT
AND THEN THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. SHOULD NOT NEED HEADLINES INTO
THU...BUT MAY NEED HEADLINES LATE THU NIGHT IF STRONG COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE WATERS AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW FLAG
CRITERIA HOWEVER. GRADIENT RELAXES CONSIDERABLY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...HIGHEST EARLY ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY BELOW FLAG
CRITERIA...DIMINISHING LATE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL/RJD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page