155
FXUS62 KILM 121725
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH BY MIDDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION BY NEXT SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 9 AM SUNDAY...FINALLY HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND DRIER AIR IS PENETRATING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE RADAR
PRESENTATION HAS SEEN THE RAIN AREA SHIFT A BIT SOUTHWARD AND THE
NORTHERN EDGE IS JUST BELOW CAPE FEAR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH OUT THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
DOMINATE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL COME
UP A DEGREE OR TWO SHY OF GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS...BUT THAT STILL
PUTS US AROUND 80 ON MONDAY AND INTO THE MID 80S ON TUESDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND A VERY DRY COLUMN WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SO MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS CLOSE TO 60
EACH DAY.
FRI-SAT LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED AS THE 00Z GFS HAS COME ON BOARD
WITH THE ECMWF IN ADVERTISING A VIGOROUS EAST COAST UPPER TROF FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING AS THE THE 00Z
ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND THE 00Z
GFS. THEREFORE WILL JUST TREND FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FRI/FRI NIGHT AND TEMPS GETTING KNOCKED BACK TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECREASING
TREND...BUT WILL MENTION VCSH IN MYR/CRE TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ENTIRELY BY 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT BORDERLINE MVFR AT MYR. UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE MORE SOLIDLY BUILDS IN SHUNTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH...3K CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z AT MYR.
NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES...MOIST SOILS AND SLIGHT
COOL AIR ADVECTION THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE INDICATED IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN TAFS DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. AFTER 14Z MONDAY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME
EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 6
FEET AT 41110 TO 7 FEET AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL STILL FORECAST BY THE WAVEWATCH TO
REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...E-NE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH 15-20 KT WINDS...AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SCA
SEAS.
EXPECT SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY EVENING...SO NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HAZARDS. TUE LOOKS MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND 2-4 FT SEAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH LIGHT NW FLOW AND
FLAT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...MRR
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