489  
FXUS62 KILM 190104  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
904 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CRANK UP IN THE DAYS  
AHEAD, AND HEAT ADVISORIES AND EVEN WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO  
MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK, AS A  
COLD FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY LIFT  
NORTH OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 9 PM MONDAY...STRONG CONVECTION, A RESULT OF TEMPS IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PEE-DEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE  
ALL BUT DISSIPATED. REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS THE  
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BOUNDARY  
LAYER WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING  
IN MOST AREAS, EVEN THOSE THAT ENDED UP WITH 1.5 INCHES OF  
RAIN. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR LOW  
TEMPS DUE TO RAIN COOLING. TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WILL HOLD  
STEADY OR COME UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE  
CONVECTION/RAIN WILL EXPERIENCE A MORE TYPICAL TEMP CURVE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT  
COMPLIMENTS OF BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND A STATIONARY  
PIEDMONT TROUGH. SIMILARLY THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY SOAR INTO THE 90S BY MIDDAY AND HEAT INDEX  
VALUES WILL REACH 105/ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAKENING/FLATTENING OF THE  
RIDGE HOWEVER WILL ALLOW A FEW IMPULSES TO CROSS THE AREA. THE WRF  
IN PARTICULAR IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  
AND WITH ITS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES  
ALL THE WAY UP TO 700MB THERE COULD BE A SMALL DOWNBURST THREAT.  
IRONICALLY THOUGH SUCH DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES COULD ALSO ARGUE FOR A  
DEEP, DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND ONLY SPOTTY CONVECTION. WILL TARGET  
MAINLY COASTAL COUNTIES WITH POPS SIMILAR TO WRF BUT WITH TEMPERED  
VALUES. MOST CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY BUT WITH SUCH ANOTHER  
WARM AND HUMID NIGHT AND A CONTINUATION OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES SOME  
20-ISH POPS WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE  
PROGRESSIVE IN TIME AS INITIALLY A MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS  
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SMALL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM  
WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA AT LEAST BRIEFLY FRIDAY  
BEFORE RETREATING WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL  
GOOD POPS FOR THURSDAY VIA A POSSIBLE MCS AND THEN FORCING LATER  
WITH THE FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS DRIED OUT THE MID LEVELS SOMEWHAT  
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE OVERALL JOGGED  
DOWN POPS FOR THESE LATER PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE  
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT NOT EXCEEDINGLY SO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION  
CONTINUES MOVING SE AND OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT, ANY POSSIBLE  
CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS. VFR  
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AT LOCATIONS WHERE  
RAIN OCCURRED. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KLBT DUE TO EXPECTED  
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. WINDS WILL BE WSW OVERNIGHT 2-5 KT INLAND  
TERMINALS, AND 5-10 KT COASTAL TERMINALS. AFTER SUNRISE VFR WITH  
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT BECOMING SW, EXCEPT BECOMING SSW 15-20  
KT AT KCRE/KMYR IN THE AFTERNOON. ATTM CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH POSSIBLE SHORT DURATION MVFR FOG OR IFR  
CIGS INLAND TERMINALS EARLY EACH MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WED, BECOMING SCATTERED THUR-SAT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 9 PM MONDAY...FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT WARRANTED  
ISSUANCE OF SCA EARLIER AND THE THREAT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.  
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT AS BERMUDA HIGH HOLDS STRONG IN THE  
FACE OF TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL  
BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS RUN 3 TO  
5 FT MADE UP MOSTLY OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE.  
 
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...  
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE DURING A HEAT WAVE THE  
MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BERMUDA HIGH-INDUCED  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE MAIN SPEED REGIME WILL BE 10-15KT AND GUSTS  
TO 20KT WILL BE COMMON BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT IN THE WELL MIXED  
ENVIRONMENT. SPECTRAL WAVE BULLETINS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY TWO MAIN  
GROUPS; A 5 SECOND WIND CHOP ALONG WITH A 9 SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY  
SWELL OF LESSER PRESENCE. SIGNIFICANT WAVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN 2-3  
AND OCCASIONALLY 2-4FT; THE HIGHER OFF OF NC COAST.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NOT NECESSARILY THE STANDARD "SOUTHWEST WINDS OF  
10-15 AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET" FORECAST, WELL AT LEAST NOT FOR SOME OF  
THE PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY A  
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN TO THE SOUTH AT LEST BRIEFLY. THERE  
COULD BE SOME NORTHEAST WINDS BUT FOR NOW MAINTAINED THE DIRECTION  
AT EASTERLY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE AND RETREATING FRONT  
WILL BUCKLE THE DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE  
PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET BUT COULD BE A LITTLE  
HIGHER BRIEFLY IF A DECENT NORTHEAST SURGE DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-  
254-256.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SHK  
NEAR TERM...III  
SHORT TERM...MBB  
LONG TERM...SHK  
AVIATION...MRR  
 
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