521  
FXUS62 KILM 260800  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
400 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE UPCOMING  
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SERIES  
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY, AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...MUCH THE SAME AS PREVIOUS DAY AS AN  
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATO CU REMAINS OVER OFF SHORE WATERS AND  
PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE CAROLINAS IN SW FLOW ALOFT.  
THE SE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
ATLANTIC WILL PUSH SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ON SHORE THROUGH THE DAY  
AND SHOULD SEE ANY STRAY SHOWERS STAY MAINLY OVER THE WATERS.  
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND JUST AROUND SUNRISE. THE  
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PLENTY OF WAA HAVE HELPED TO KEEP  
OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSE TO 60. THIS WILL GIVE A JUMP START TO WARM  
DAY AHEAD. THE WAA WILL BATTLE THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING TEMPS  
TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTN.  
 
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL INCREASE  
THE CHC OF PCP INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT  
DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE  
ADVECTION IN SW FLOW ALOFT. PCP WATER VALUES NEAR .65 INCHES  
WILL INCREASE OVER AN INCH THROUGH LATE SUN AFTN. THIS MAY HELP  
TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND MAY SEE A  
STRAY SHOWER REACH FARTHER EAST...MAINLY WEST OF I-95 LATE  
SUNDAY, AS WELL AS INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...CHIEF HEADLINE THIS PERIOD "WARM AND BALMY"  
AND AN OFFERING OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES UNTIL LATE IN THE  
WEEK, IN PARTICULAR ON TUESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE WHISKS OVERHEAD.  
DRYISH MID-LEVEL AIR WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND QPF OUTPUT  
FAR FROM STELLAR. THE LOW-LEVEL HEATING AND DEWPOINT FIELDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM HOWEVER, AND  
A FEW LUCKY FOLKS MAY SEE HIGHER LOCAL RAINFALL DUMPS FROM  
CONVECTION. PRONOUNCED DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS IN WAKE OF THE  
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CURTAIL SHOWERS BY  
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, BUT NO COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE INTRUSION VIA A BACK-  
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY  
WITH A LAG OF COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL  
CROSSING OF THE COAST. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS MAY END UP BEING  
THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE WEEK, BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION  
CRANKS UP AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN  
STREAM IMPULSE. THIS SYSTEM WILL OFFER THE BEST RAIN CHANCE OF  
LATE, AND POTENTIALLY A GOOD SOAKING. RIGHT NOW THE AMPLIFIED  
NATURE OF THE SHOT-WAVE SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FEW  
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY BENEATH THE COLD POOL OF THE  
AMPLIFIED TROUGH, WITH DRYING AND COOLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH  
A COOL MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD  
IN A MILD AND MOIST WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY BE SE TO S UP TO 10 KTS IN THE AFTN BUT OTHERWISE 5  
KTS OR LESS. AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD JUST OFF SHORE MAY GET PUSHED  
ON SHORE IN SE FLOW AND THEREFORE INCLUDED PERIOD OF SCT TO BKN  
DECK AROUND 3 TO 5 K FT...MAINLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL  
TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME CU TO AFFECT INLAND TAF SITES SUN AFTN  
ALSO. THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DRY BUT SW FLOW IN THE MID TO  
UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED CIRRUS OVER THE AREA. A FEW  
SHRA POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INLAND, BUT NOT ENOUGH IN AREAL  
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AS OF YET.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A  
FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON THROUGH TUE AND AGAIN  
THURS NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON  
WED LASTING INTO THURS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE  
AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE  
SLIGHTLY FROM SE TO S REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS NEAR SHORE  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER, IN THE 10 TO 15  
KT RANGE, AND GUSTIER AS THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION  
SETS UP. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS GRADUALLY  
BUT OVERALL WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN  
RIGHT AROUND THE 3 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...  
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD, BUT SE  
SWELL WAVES WILL KEEP SEA HEIGHTS RELATIVELY ELEVATED GIVEN THE  
15 KT OR LESS WIND- SPEEDS. WAVE PERIODS OF AROUND 10 SECONDS  
WILL PREVENT STEEPNESS, AND THIS WILL BE CO-JOINED BY LIGHT TO  
MODERATE S-SW CHOP THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE  
WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
TSTMS. PATCHY MARINE FOG OR MIST IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A  
HEARTY SEA BREEZE WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO 19 KT NEAR SHORE IN THE  
AFTERNOONS. BOTH MON/TUE S-SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS SUSTAINED.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD  
FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY A WIND-SHIFT TO THE N_NE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE 0-20  
NM WATERS. BRIEFLY THIS INTRUSION WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT WIND  
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG AND  
PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SE-S WINDS  
LATE THURSDAY AND AN ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR 25 KT  
GUSTS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS  
AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY ON THE WATER FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MJC  
NEAR TERM...RGZ  
SHORT TERM...MJC  
LONG TERM...MJC  
AVIATION...RGZ  
 
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