847  
FXUS62 KILM 190516  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
1215 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A WARMING TREND  
AND DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES  
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW  
THIS FRONT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK, ALTHOUGH DID ALLOW  
FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING ADJACENT TO THE DEEPER SNOW PACK TO  
OUR NW AND N.  
 
ARCTIC COLD REMAINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL  
DRIVE THE EXPANSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH E/NE FROM THE GULF  
COAST, AND THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAA ALOFT AS RIDGING  
BLOSSOMS FROM THE SW. THESE TWO OCCURRING TOGETHER WILL CAUSE  
THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN, AND WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TO NEAR CALM  
TONIGHT WHILE BACKING TO THE W/SW. WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN  
PLACE (PWATS AROUND 0.2 INCHES) AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. THIS PRODUCES WIDESPREAD LOWS  
OF 22-25 DEGREES, WITH SUBTLY WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED  
POCOSIN SWAMPY AREAS.  
 
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH  
SHIFTS TO PRODUCE SW SURFACE WINDS AND CONTINUED WAA. THERE WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE AN INVERSION JUST ATOP THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHALLOW  
SURFACE LAYER, SO HAVE AGAIN FORECAST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE  
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY, BUT EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPS TO  
CLIMB TO 1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 55 BENEATH FULL SUNSHINE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE FANFARE. IN  
FACT, IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE A WARMUP FOR THE REGION WITH A  
SOUTHWEST FLOW. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AND FEW  
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STREAM BY  
LATE. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO  
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE A WARMUP  
TO SIXTY DEGREES AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF  
THE SE CONUS SUNDAY, ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO  
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL  
BEGIN TO RETURN IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY, WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS ADVECTING IN OFF THE OCEAN DURING THE  
DAY. CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE  
TUESDAY MORNING, AND THAT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING  
THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE LITTLE COLD AIR ARRIVING  
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STILL  
RISING TO AROUND 60. THEY WILL, HOWEVER, DROP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR  
THURSDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE  
NORTHERLY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN  
OUT OF THE W TO SW PICKING UP TO 5 TO 8 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS  
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NW WINDS  
CONTINUING, BUT WITH SPEEDS EASING TO 10-15 KT. WIND DIRECTION  
WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS  
EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST, BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO  
THE SW DURING FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH RIDGES TOWARDS THE AREA, THE  
GRADIENT WILL INITIALLY RELAX ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO FALL TO  
AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 10-15 KT ON  
FRIDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT  
BY FRIDAY, WITH THE 9 SEC E/NE SWELL GRADUALLY DECAYING INTO  
FRIDAY AS A SW WIND WAVE AMPLIFIES.  
 
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...  
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS  
ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES TO  
THE SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW  
TO THE NORTH DRIVE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS,  
LACKING ANY STRONGER WINDS OR ROBUST SWELL COMPONENTS WILL BE  
2-4 FEET.  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WINDS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. WEAK  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15-20  
KNOTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH INCREASING  
COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE  
COAST TUESDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE WIND AFTER FROPA ON TUESDAY  
LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS, IN A  
RELAXED GRADIENT.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RJD/JDW  
NEAR TERM...JDW  
SHORT TERM...SHK  
LONG TERM...CRM  
AVIATION...RGZ  
 
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