586  
FXUS62 KILM 271405  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
1005 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATER TODAY,  
FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH MID WEEK.  
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN LATE WEEK AND INTO  
THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN RESIDES  
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX EXPECTED TO  
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS  
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS  
LACKING ATTM SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL, GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT  
DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO REFLECT A RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUDS  
PRESENTLY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TONIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD AS DO 20 POPS AND  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL  
DRAW FEW COMPLAINTS AS THE MUGGY FEEL REMAINS ABSENT FROM THE  
SENSIBLE WEATHER REGIME, AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BORN FROM  
THE UPPER US PLAINS SINKS SE INTO THE CAROLINA SKIES. THIS SHORT  
LIVED VISIT HOWEVER WILL GIVE WAY TO IN THE INEVITABLE RETURN  
OF SUMMER AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIPS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY MAXIMUMS WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL  
VALUES FOR LATE JUNE, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE  
60S AFTER THE BRIEF DRY DIP INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THE  
MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST DIURNAL CUMULUS IS LIKELY EACH DAY,  
BUT VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL BE UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY  
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY THE  
RETURN OF WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JUNE AS BERMUDA HIGH  
PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
PERIOD. LOWS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR REMAINDER OF  
THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DURING THE REST OF THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 010...VFR THIS TAF CYCLE AS CLOUDS REMAIN AT 5 KFT OR  
HIGHER. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING ISOLATED -SHRA BETWEEN  
19Z AND 00Z LATER TODAY, BUT TSTMS WILL BE FEW TO NONE AS  
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OVERNIGHT SKC-SCT100 WITH N-NE WINDS 5 KT  
OR LESS. WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS, MIST AND FOG NOT EXPECTED TO  
CAUSE VSBY RESTRICTIONS.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT N WINDS TO BECOME E TO SE THIS  
AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY AGAIN AS A  
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR  
LESS THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH 15 KT IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST  
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE  
EXPECTED.  
 
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...  
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...VEERING 10-15 KT WINDS START NE THEN E  
THEN SE LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND  
SLIPS OFFSHORE. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SHOWERS OR TSTMS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL MIGRATE TO  
A POSITION BETWEEN THE OUTER BANKS AND BERMUDA. THIS WILL  
PROMPT AN E-SE FLOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS 2-3  
FEET AND WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. A FEW OUTER WATER SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY BUT NOT OF HAZARDOUS CONSEQUENCE. SEAS SE  
IN DIRECTION WITH MIXED PERIODS OF 9 AND 6 SECONDS.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...S TO SW WINDS BY FRIDAY AND PREVAILING  
THROUGH SATURDAY, SPEEDS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY.  
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A FEW 3  
FOOTERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...8  
NEAR TERM...31  
SHORT TERM...MJC  
LONG TERM...RAN  
AVIATION...8  
 
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