156  
FXUS62 KILM 172329  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
729 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO  
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER  
THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL LIKELY STALL  
NEAR THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA  
NEXT WEEK, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION HAS FADED WITH THE SETTING  
SUN. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT POTION  
OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:  
 
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH  
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE MID 70'S. DO NOT ANTICIPATE  
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOP OR LOW CIGS AS LINGERING MID TO  
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.  
 
ON FRIDAY, WEAK RIDING ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE  
AREA THIS WEEKEND. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90'S AND  
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70'S, ANTICIPATE HEAT INDICES IN  
THE 100'S ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT ALL AREAS TO  
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT IT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL BE  
WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL  
FOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING, LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND  
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OH VLY  
WILL DROP SE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO  
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, DEEP SW FLOW ADVECTS TREMENDOUS  
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES SATURDAY, WHICH  
SHOULD SERVE AS FUEL FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY  
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE WHERE IT MERGES WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THIS IS IN  
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR, WITH MLCAPE OVER  
2000 J/KG LIKELY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN  
AT LEAST THE MID 70S, IF NOT NEAR 80 IN SOME PLACES. MOST OF THIS  
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING, BUT SHOULD REFOCUS  
OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT  
WILL BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN MANY DAYS AS SOME DRY ADVECTION  
WORKS INTO THE COLUMN, PUSHING MINS INTO THE MID 70S, DOWN FROM NEAR  
80 FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STALLED FRONT REALLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY TO  
OUR WEST ON SUNDAY WHILE LIGHT ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW HELPS TO CONFINE  
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. THIS  
FRONT APPEARS TO WASH OUT COMPLETELY BY MONDAY LEAVING BEHIND SOME  
WEAK TROUGHINESS ON MONDAY. THIS DOESN'T ELUCIDATE MUCH REGARDING  
ECLIPSE VIEW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST SINCE IN SUCH A  
SETUP CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND VERTICALLY  
VIGOROUS. TUESDAY SHOULD REPRESENT THE LOWEST RAINFALL CHANCES  
DURING THE PERIOD WITH A PINNED SEABREEZE, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AND A  
PIEDMONT TROUGH TO OUR WEST. ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE NEXT  
COLD FRONT ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE  
THAN THE EARLY WEEK BOUNDARY IN CLEARING THE AREA AT LEAST IN PART  
ON THURSDAY AS THERE IS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND HIGHER SURFACE  
PRESSURES DRIVING ITS PROGRESS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GOOD  
CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY  
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. POTENTIAL BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH  
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN IMPENDING COLD FRONT.  
ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY STRATUS/FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK EACH  
DAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF ONLY 2 FT OR  
LESS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. FORECAST GOOD TO  
GO WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:  
 
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. SEAS OF 2 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE PERIOD, WITH 3 FTERS GRADUALLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OUTER  
WATERS.  
 
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...  
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL  
STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST SATURDAY. THIS LEAVES SW FLOW  
ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE A 3-4 FT/5SEC SW WIND WAVE  
ATOP THE PERSISTENT 8-9 SEC SE SWELL, AND SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT  
ACROSS ALL WATERS.  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DECAYING INTO A WEAK SURFACE  
TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE RUNNING THEIR FAIRLY 'NORMAL' 2-3 AND  
OCCASIONALLY 4 FT. THE TROUGH MAY WASH OUT FOR A TIME MONDAY  
NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BUT IT REFORMS TUESDAY  
FOR A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, LIKELY CAPPED AT  
10KT.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...99  
NEAR TERM...REK/SGL  
SHORT TERM...JDW  
LONG TERM...MBB  
AVIATION...REK  
MARINE...REK/JDW/MBB/SGL  
 
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