098
FXUS62 KILM 260816
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
416 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD
KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOL WITH HELP FROM LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. HIGH
SUN ANGLES AND THIN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK INLAND BY LATE MORNING
FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREAS MAY TAKE LONGER TO SEE
SUNSHINE, BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.
EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SAT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUN NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME, MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP THE EAST COAST. WILL
SEE A MIX OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND HIGHER CLOUDS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH PLUS MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW ALOFT RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. MAY EVEN SEE SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS, BUT NOT INCLUDING ANY PCP CHANCES FOR NOW. BY LATE
SUNDAY, THE HIGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER OFF THE COAST WITH A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ON SAT
WILL PUSH 80 ON SUN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE S TO SW MON INTO MIDWEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE UP THE EAST COAST. WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MON AND
TUES WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM INTO MIDWEEK AS GREATER
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE 80
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED AND THURS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUES NIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME CLOUDS BEFORE RIDGE
BUILDS BACK IN AGAIN WED AND THURS WITH FURTHER HEIGHT RISES AND
THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE THURS. MAY SEE ENOUGH
MOISTURE COMBINING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHWRS
MIDWEEK, BUT BETTER CHC WILL COME LATE THURS INTO FRI AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS TO PUSH INLAND, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR HERE. RESTRICTIONS, IF THEY
DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE BRIEF. ALONG THE COAST, NE FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. HIGH SUN
ANGLES AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR TO FOLLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE OF MORNING FOG THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A NE SURGE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT NEARSHORE
BUOYS AND COASTAL REPORTING STATIONS. GUSTS AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS EVEN AS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-5
FEET. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX, REMAINING CHOPPY HOWEVER.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING FROM MORE OF A NE FLOW TO
THE E AND THEN SE BY SUN, RUNNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BUT
DIMINISHING INTO SUN. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
WINDS HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON INTO LATE DAY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SEAS WILL START OUT 3 TO 4 FT BUT WILL DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
SUN, DROPPING BELOW 3 FT BY MON AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO MORE
OF A SW TO W FLOW WITH A GREATER OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL MIX IN. NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RGZ/21
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