248  
AXUS73 KABR 131920  
DGTABR  
MNC011-155-SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-  
059-065-069-075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-151930-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
120 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2018 /1220 PM MST TUE FEB 13 2018/  
   
..SNOW DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR MANY AREAS
 
 
SYNOPSIS...  
 
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WINTER AS HEAVY SNOW EVENTS HAVE BEEN NON-EXISTENT OVER THE REGION.  
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAVE BEEN  
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY SO FAR THIS WINTER, WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL COMPARED  
TO NORMAL. SNOW PACK OVER THIS AREA IS ALSO MINIMAL. A SERIOUS OF  
LIGHT SNOW EVENTS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS  
HAS PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COVER, BUT MOISTURE CONTENT HAS  
BEEN LACKING. BECAUSE OF ALL THIS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED  
OVER NORTHEAST AREAS, WHEREAS CONDITIONS HAVE HELD STEADY OVER  
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  
 
D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT COUNTIES: WESTERN CORSON.  
 
D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT COUNTIES: EASTERN CORSON, DEWEY, STANLEY,  
JONES, CAMPBELL, WALWORTH, POTTER, SULLY, HUGHES, NORTHWEST LYMAN,  
MCPHERSON, EDMUNDS, FAULK, BROWN, NORTHERN SPINK, MARSHALL, DAY,  
NORTHERN CLARK, ROBERTS, NORTHERN GRANT, NORTHERN CODINGTON, BIG  
STONE, TRAVERSE.  
 
D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) COUNTIES: LYMAN, HYDE, HAND, SOUTHERN SPINK,  
SOUTHERN CLARK, SOUTHERN CODINGTON, NORTHWEST HAMLIN, SOUTHERN GRANT,  
NORTHERN DEUEL.  
 
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...  
 
STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS:  
NONE KNOWN.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:  
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RELEASE OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA CROP PROGRESS AND  
CONDITION REPORT, THE MONTH OF JANUARY HAD TOPSOIL MOISTURE RATINGS  
OF 64 PERCENT SHORT OR VERY SHORT. THIS IS AN 11 PERCENT INCREASE  
FROM DECEMBER, AND A 23 PERCENT INCREASE SINCE NOVEMBER. SUBSOIL  
MOISTURE WAS RATED 62 PERCENT SHORT OR VERY SHORT. THIS IS A 6  
PERCENT INCREASE FROM DECEMBER, AND AN 11 PERCENT INCREASE SINCE  
NOVEMBER. THESE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO VERIFY THE CONTINUING/WORSENING  
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:  
THE LATEST CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION REPORT RATED WINTER WHEAT  
CONDITIONS AT 21 PERCENT POOR OR VERY POOR.  
 
RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS:  
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FROZEN FOR THE WINTER  
SEASON, BUT MOST OF THEM WERE AT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS PRIOR TO  
FREEZING.  
 
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:  
A SNOW COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW  
WEEKS, THEREFORE GREATLY DIMINISHING FIRE DANGER. ALTHOUGH, NORTHEAST  
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAVE MINIMAL SNOW COVER. IF  
MELTING OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WITH A CONTINUED LACK OF SNOW,  
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS MAY CROP UP SOONER THAN USUAL.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY...  
 
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY WAS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE  
REGION, WHILE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THUS FAR IN  
FEBRUARY, PRECIPITATION IS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST  
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA,  
PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THUS FAR, DUE TO THE  
SERIES OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. TEMPERATURES  
HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.  
 
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...  
 
THE LATEST ONE-MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS  
A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK SHOWS A HIGHER  
PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS FOR PRECIPITATION,  
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOW UP OVER  
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.  
 
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...  
 
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ISSUED BY  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN, THE BIG SIOUX RIVER IN THE  
WATERTOWN AREA HAS BETWEEN A 25 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING  
FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. ALL THE OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS  
ACROSS THE AREA SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF  
REACHING FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...  
 
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MARCH 13TH OR SOONER, IF  
NECESSARY, IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.  
 

 
 
RELATED WEB SITES...  
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT  
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:  
 
US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU  
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV  
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT  
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://HPRCC.UNL.EDU  
LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR  
USDA CROP INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/INDEX.ASP  
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...HTTPS://CLIMATE.SDSTATE.EDU  
SDSU EXTENSION...HTTP://IGROW.ORG  
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP  
 
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...  
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV  
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...HTTPS://WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER  
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...HTTP://WWW.USACE.ARMY.MIL  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
 
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION,  
THE USDA, STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL  
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN  
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES, STATE COOPERATIVE  
EXTENSION SERVICES, THE USDA, USACE AND USGS.  
 
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...  
 
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION  
STATEMENT, PLEASE CONTACT:  
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
TRAVIS TARVER  
824 BROWN COUNTY 14 S.  
ABERDEEN SD 57401  
PHONE...605-225-0519  
TRAVIS.TARVER@NOAA.GOV  
 

 
TMT  
 
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