293  
FXUS63 KABR 261741 AAC  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2017  
 
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS  
TO DECREASE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2017  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS  
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL  
COOLING IN MANY AREAS ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 40S.  
A COUPLE RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ONCE AGAIN BY SUNRISE. THIS HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE  
ON OUR PLEASANT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY  
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
APPROACHES THE REGION. INITIALLY, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP  
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL AND DEWPOINTS WILL  
TRY TO INCREASE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL  
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION FORECAST  
TO BE ACROSS WESTERN SD NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS  
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S AS THEY TRAVEL  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA, AIDED BY A STRONG 60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW  
LEVEL JET. A RIBBON OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR  
MOVES EAST INTO THE JAMES VALLEY, BUT THEN SEEMS TO WEAKEN ACROSS  
EASTERN SD. THEREFORE, HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT SEVERE THREAT EAST OF  
THE JAMES VALLEY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN CWA  
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO MN BY  
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, ANTICIPATE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING JUST FOR  
EASTERN AREAS AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CWA WEST OF THE  
JAMES VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO  
SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY WHICH  
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2017  
 
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO START THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL TRACK  
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, BEFORE NORTHWEST  
FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK  
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME BETTER  
CHANCES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN A MORE WELL DEFINED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH.  
 
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE  
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. MAY SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF A  
WARMING TREND LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID  
80S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE A WIND  
SHEAR FOR KPIR. ALL AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS BY 15Z TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SD  
SHORT TERM...TMT  
LONG TERM...PARKIN  
AVIATION...SD  
 
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