417  
FXUS63 KABR 170523 AAC  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1223 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2017  
 
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK, THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS  
TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2017  
 
BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SISSETON HILLS AND EAST WILL QUICKLY  
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE  
THE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE  
H85 TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE  
AND PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION AND AROUND 80 ALONG  
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DRY OUT AS  
A RESULT, FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL SD. WINDS,  
HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2017  
 
THERE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK  
IN TERMS OF THE UPPER/LOW LEVEL PATTERN AND RESULTING  
TEMPERATURE/WIND CONDITIONS BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS. THE MAIN  
THEME FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN EARLY DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
PRESSURE RISES OF 7MB/6 HOURS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR  
GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS ON NORTHWEST WINDS. PROBABLY NOT STRONG  
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY HOWEVER AS BUFKIT MIXED WINDS TOP OUT  
AROUND 30-40KTS AT KMBG.  
 
THE ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKS SOUTH RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT, AND BY THURSDAY WE ARE IN RETURN FLOW. LIGHT PRESSURE  
FALLS AND A 10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST, ALONG WITH  
850MB WINDS UPWARDS OF 40KTS, WILL MEAN THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE  
QUITE BREEZY, MAINLY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND TO THE EAST, BUT  
WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE,  
TOPPING OUT AROUND 1 TO AS HIGH AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE  
CLIMO. MIXING TO THIS LEVEL (WHICH IS INDICATED IN BUFKIT) YIELDS  
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR,  
ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE STRONGER FLOW AT 850MB, WHICH TRANSLATES TO  
EVEN STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE ALSO INTRODUCE  
SOME MLCAPE AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY, AND BEST FORCING IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA, SO LOW POPS  
FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE IS APPROPRIATE FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH  
THE DAY TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DORN  
SHORT TERM...WISE  
LONG TERM...CONNELLY  
AVIATION...DORN  
 
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