751
FXUS63 KABR 082030
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
230 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM..TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO SETTLE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MONDAY
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND INCREASES
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE GRIDS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE NEXT 2 DAYS
WILL BE DRY WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
MID TERM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE MID TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAST MOVING WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL BE BE MOVING OVER THE AREA BRINGING ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE CWA. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US FROM THE PACIFIC AND
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND AFFECT THE CWA COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ONWARD. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES IN...KEEPING WARMER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS PRESSURES FALL OUT WEST IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE MID TERM.
LONG TERM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM SET TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF STILL DISAGREE ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ...AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. GFS
PUSHES SYSTEM COMPLETELY THROUGH BY SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF HAS A
SLOWER SOLUTION. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LACK AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM AS WELL. THEREFORE...LEFT SLIGHT POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BOTH.
AVIATION
VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY EARLY EVENING AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES BY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCARLETT
LONG TERM...MOHR/GIONTA
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
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