297
FXUS63 KABR 021033 CCA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
430 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2008
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDES...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...PCPN TYPE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MANITOBA...WITH A
WARM FRONT DROPPING SSW AND IS BISECTING THE DAKOTAS. TEMPS ARE
SLOWLY RISING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MANY SITES NOW REPORTING
TEMPS IN THE 30S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS.
STILL EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH A NON DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
THROUGH THE CWA AROUND 18Z. THE TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP BETWEEN 20Z TO
22Z AS THE COLD AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT SOME.
AS FOR PCPN TYPE...EXPECT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL AREA OF
RAIN OR SNOW IN MY NE COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE TEMPS MAYBE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE WET BULB NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. HAVE
INTRODUCED RAIN OR SNOW FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER
21Z...AND ALL SNOW AFTER 0Z TONIGHT AS CAA TAKES OVER. 850 MB
TEMPS COOL OFF FROM -2C AT 21Z...TO -5C IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TO
-10C IN THE NORTHERN CWA BY 0Z TONIGHT. THE BEST FORCING FOR
TONIGHT IS OVER MY SW COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER MURDO SHOWS
A GOOD AREA OF OMEGA IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH SOME NEGATIVE
SATURATED GEO POTENTIAL VORTICITY. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN SOUTHERN JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES TO AROUND TWO INCHES. THIS
EVEN MATCHES UP WELL WITH HPC GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...DON'T THINK
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
DOES LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY IN JONES/LYMAN/BUFFALO/AND STANLY
COUNTIES TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE COLD AND SNOWY...WITH CAA
AND OVERCAST SKIES MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN IT WILL SNOW
OR NOT. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. GRANTED WITH SOME FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND AGREE
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN.
THE LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION
AND COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASSES MOVING THROUGH. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. LEFT THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST GOING AS IS. THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE
SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE IF
THEY CAN COME MORE IN LINE WITH LATER RUNS.
AVIATION
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE
REPLACED BY VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER BY
00Z TO MVFR IN THE PIR AND MBG AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE MBG AND PIR AREAS BY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT PIR AND
MBG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PIR WILL HAVE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN
SNOW AS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THIS LOCATION.
VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW A MILE AT TIMES AND CEILINGS COULD
FALL TO IFR IN THE PIR AREA THIS EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
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