862
FXUS63 KABR 142318 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
618 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PEAKING ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S, ROUGHLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE MID-APRIL NORMALS.
- THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO
30 MILES PER HOUR RESULT IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY, LEADING TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 40S) AND PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT AS RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GENTLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BROADER SETUP IN PLACE
IS SUCH THAT A JET STREAK ALOFT ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A RIDGE CLIPS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, LEADING TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OUT OF ANY
DEVELOPMENT, AS DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY OF
THESE RAIN SHOWERS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
PEAKING ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA BRING AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND WILL PUSH 85-MB
TEMPERATURES TO ROUGHLY 15-19 DEGREES CELSIUS, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THESE
SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOUT 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL, BUT
ALL CLIMATE SITES CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL SHORT OF ANY
RECORD HIGHS. THE HEAT WILL HELP CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHEN COMBINED WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED, AND IT REMAINS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE WARRANTED.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, DEVELOPING A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, DEVELOPING
ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE LAST COUPLE OF NBM RUNS HAVE
TRENDED THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE ABERDEEN
FORECAST AREA, BUT STILL LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE MEDIAN VALUES AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN, BUT AS THE FRONT BRINGS
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION A TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR. A WELL-
SATURATED PROFILE WILL SUPPORT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 10:1 OR
HIGHER, BUT QPF IS LIMITED AFTER THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION
SO ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NBM PROBABILITY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MILE PER
HOUR GUSTS IS HOLDING STEADY FOR THE MOMENT, AT A BROAD 10-30%
CHANCE. THESE POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIMES TEND TO BE
UNDERDONE, SO THE GIVEN PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY A BIT LOW. ON THE
OTHER HAND, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T RESOLVE MUCH 40+ KNOT
SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS UNTIL SATURDAY ROLLS AROUND, SO GUSTS
MIXING TO THE SURFACE FRIDAY MAY STILL BE SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL. NBM
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S (10-30%
CHANCE OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA), BUT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER-
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS IT MAY BE MORE REALISTIC TO ACTUALLY REACH 45 MPH
AT THE SURFACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...20
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