772  
FXUS63 KABR 230850  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
350 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
 
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE  
EASTERN CWA, WITH MORE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE  
RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN  
CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD  
TODAY, BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE  
EAST AS MODELS INDICATE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. RATHER CHILLY AIR  
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, AND IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL BE STUCK  
IN THE 50S TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL  
ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS FEELING COOL.  
 
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING IN. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING  
WE SEE, TEMPERATURES WILL GET RATHER CHILLY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR  
FOR POSSIBLE FROST HEADLINES IF CONDITIONS APPEAR TO WARRANT. WILL  
BE WATCHING CLOUD COVER TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. DROPPED LOWS A  
COUPLE DEGREES AND NOW HAVE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MANY  
AREAS. INSERTED SOME PATCHY FROST INTO THE GRIDS FOR NOW AS  
CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT THIS.  
 
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND 925/850 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO  
RISE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. BY  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD, WITH  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.  
 
THURSDAY IS LOOKING MILD WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD MIXING, ALTHOUGH  
GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH SURFACE WINDS COMPARED TO OTHER  
MODELS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S AS  
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES PUSHING EASTWARD.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OVER CENTRAL CANADA EARLY IN THE  
PERIOD, WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN LOW  
CENTER WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY  
BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION, KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE  
MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEMS OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN TEXAS WILL BE OVER THE  
EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING, THEN PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, UNTIL THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM  
LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
60S TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
 
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY SETTLE IN OVER KABR/KATY AND THEN PERSIST  
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING LATER IN THE DAY. SHOWERS  
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END LATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
AT KPIR/KMBG THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TMT  
LONG TERM...PARKIN  
AVIATION...PARKIN  
 
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