823  
FXUS63 KABR 180003 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
A SURFACE FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CWA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME SURFACE BASE CAPE  
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS,  
HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHARE IS LACKING. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FAR  
EAST, INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
LIMITED. PWATS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, WHICH LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL OF  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN OUR SE. BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS, HEAVY  
RAINFALL MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS CWA AS WELL. CAMS SUGGEST PCPN  
REMAINING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
NUDGES SOUTHWARD.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON  
MONDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED  
INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH COOL SURFACE TEMPS, EXPECTING SHOWERS FOR  
THE WESTERN CWA. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER IN OUR  
SOUTHEAST CWA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRANSITION FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE PLAINS  
BY WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW, AS  
WELL, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SFC LOW WILL ENHANCE  
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. OVERALL, A VERY  
WET PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. EVEN AFTER THE FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST, ANOTHER ONE IS  
IN LINE TO MOVE IN AND AFFECT THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
WITH ALL OF THE UPPER TROUGHS AND LOWS, CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT THIS  
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL ONLY  
TOP OUT IN THE 70S MOST DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING ON.  
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT PIR AND ATY THIS  
EVENING. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PIR WHICH MAY HAVE SOME  
SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOWER CEILINGS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MOHR  
SHORT TERM...SD  
LONG TERM...WISE  
AVIATION...MOHR  
 
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