924  
FXUS63 KABR 261628 AAB  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1128 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST, AT THIS TIME.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING  
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THIS INITIAL SURGE WITH THE  
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS THIS  
MORNING WITH THE DEEPENING MIXING LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS  
SUSTAINING THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS  
FRONT WILL ALSO COME THROUGH DRY WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT  
ONLY BRINGING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MODELS INITIALLY SHOW  
THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING WITH WARMING 925H TEMPERATURES  
COMING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH MILD  
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. INCREASED HIGHS TODAY A  
FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO A LOT OF THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WITH  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND STEADY WINDS, EXPECT LOWS ONLY IN  
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRODUCE BREEZY  
WINDS AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND - MORE  
TOWARDS CONSMOS VALUES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE EASTERN  
CWA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS APPEARED TO BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY  
TO GO COOLER THAN THE INHERITED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY OVER  
THE EASTERN CWA IN FAVORED COOL SPOTS. TRENDED MORE TOWARDS CONSMOS  
AND EVEN WENT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN ABR.  
 
THE BIG WARM UP REALLY GETS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP NICELY SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING.  
SUPERBLEND WINDS LOOKED TOO LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, SO  
INCREASED SPEEDS MORE TOWARDS CONSMOS VALUES. RATHER WARM 925/850 MB  
TEMPS STREAM OVER THE AREA AS WELL, SO LOOKING AT HIGHS WELL INTO  
THE 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND COULD EVEN SEE 80 DEGREES IN  
PLACES. WILL LIKELY SEE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY, BUT CURRENT  
FORECAST RH KEEPS READINGS HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY HEADLINES.  
 
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO GET A BIG MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
REGION. LEFT INHERITED POPS ALONE AT THIS TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE  
INCREASES ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE  
BOUNDARIES. WE DO GET SOME INSTABILITY UP INTO THE REGION AS WELL,  
SO THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN  
THE FORECAST/GRIDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS  
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DORN  
SHORT TERM...MOHR  
LONG TERM...TMT  
AVIATION...MOHR  
 
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