768  
FXUS63 KABR 282345 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
645 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH HAS  
STAYED WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
THAT WAY THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK IN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT  
IN THIS CWA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE  
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE.  
 
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT,  
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME  
CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID  
50S TO LOWER 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
AS THE PERIOD OPENS, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS  
STATES, SITUATED BETWEEN LONG WAVE TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND EAST.  
THE WEST COAST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSES  
OFF WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON  
FRIDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE, SO IT APPEARS  
THAT ONLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ON  
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS DECREASES QUICKLY  
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF ILL DEFINED UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH VERY BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.  
MODELS SUGGEST THE REGION PICKS UP AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION  
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. STUCK WITH  
BLENDED GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES ARE  
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT  
AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MOHR  
SHORT TERM...PARKIN  
LONG TERM...SERR  
AVIATION...MOHR  
 
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