778  
FXUS63 KABR 201559 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1059 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
 
RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL  
SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND LATE THIS MORNING MOVING QUICKLY EAST. DONT  
BELIEVE MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THEM. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS  
TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH SKY COVER AND  
TEMPERATURES. UPDATED FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS JUST  
RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH ABR. BEHIND THIS FRONT, THERE HAS BEEN  
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.  
THERE IS SOME MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO WORK WITH, BUT THE BULK  
OF THE HIGHER VALUES ARE MOVING EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT, WITH MORE  
STABLE AIR BACK TO THE WEST. NONETHELESS, WE HAVE SEEN A FEW CELLS  
TRY TO PULSE UP WITH PERHAPS SOME PEA SIZED HAIL AT TIMES. EXPECT  
THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AS MORE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SHOWING UP OVER WESTERN SD.  
 
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR ECLIPSE  
MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH  
COULD OBSCURE VIEWING OF THE ECLIPSE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AREAL  
COVERAGE AND DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION THOUGH  
AS SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOTALLY SATURATED ALOFT. FEEL THERE SHOULD BE  
SOME BREAKS OR THINNING IN CLOUDS IN PLACES TO PREVENT A TOTAL  
OVERCAST SCENARIO.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
 
LONG TERM WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A  
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE. ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE  
CWA AND WE GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AROUND THE END OF THE  
WEEK/START OF NEXT WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND  
AVERAGE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE  
SURGE OF WARMER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN  
PROGRESSES, HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL JUST  
STICK WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH BASED  
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON FOR KABR/KATY, WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER - BUT TOO  
LOW A PROBABILITY THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AT ANY TERMINALS AND  
THEREFOR DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCTS/TS WORDING IN TAFS.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MOHR  
SHORT TERM...TMT  
LONG TERM...CONNELLY  
AVIATION...CONNELLY  
 
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