263
FXUS63 KUNR 140853
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
253 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2008
DISCUSSION
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN SK
INTO CENTRAL WY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PER WATER VAPOUR WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES POISED TO MOVE INTO THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME RETURNS IN
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF FIRST WAVE...LIKELY
NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITH ANY FORCE. EXPECT SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE EAST AS COOL FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED -SHRA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. LI/S APPROACH
ZERO THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED
TSRA. HIGHS TODAY COOLEST WEST WITH BEST CLOUD COVER. WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE NORTH THURSDAY AS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING.
FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.
EXTENDED...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
SCT -SHRA WITH SOME ISOLD -TSRA WILL DEVELOP TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
HELGESON/SCHILD
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