607
ACUS48 KWNS 080829
SWOD48
SPC AC 080829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..DISCUSSION
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO HAVE BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL
BY DAY 4 (WEDNESDAY) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NERN GULF NEAR
THE FL PANHANDLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE...PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE COULD STILL FACE SOME
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO
HIGH AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL POSSIBLY DAY 7 OR 8 WHEN
MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. DIFFERENCES
EXIST AMONG MODELS IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
ECMWF BEING DEEPER AND STRONGER INDICATING A GREATER SEVERE THREAT.
PREDICTABILITY WITH THIS PATTERN REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 11/08/2009
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