266
ACUS48 KWNS 270904
SWOD48
SPC AC 270903
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
..DISCUSSION
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WILL REMAIN TIED
TO SRN STREAM UPPER LOW /FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND/ AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH LIFT THE SYSTEM QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SERN
U.S. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE GFS BEING APPROXIMATELY 12 HR
FASTER. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/. THE ECMWF LIFTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MORE NNEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER
LOW...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE ENEWD TRACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
REGARDLESS...APPEARS SOME GRADUAL RECOVER WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND PERHAPS SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR DAY 6-7. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING BOTH QUALITY OF PRECEDING AIR
MASS/INSTABILITY AND WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF ENSUING SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO WARRANT A
RISK AREA ATTM.
..EVANS.. 11/27/2009
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