036  
FNUS21 KWNS 141605  
FWDDY1  
 
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1104 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
 
VALID 141700Z - 151200Z  
 
EXTENDED THE ELEVATED AREA SLIGHTLY EAST IN WYOMING TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR AND DEEP MIXING. THERE IS A  
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITHIN THE ELEVATED  
AREA, PRIMARILY IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING.  
HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH  
TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA.  
 
OTHERWISE, REMOVED THE ISODRYT AREA FROM EASTERN IDAHO, WESTERN,  
WYOMING, NORTHWEST UTAH, AND NORTHERN NEVADA AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED  
TO BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED PUSHING NORTHWARD, THUS KEEPING STORMS  
FURTHER SOUTH. DEBATED REMOVING THE ISODRYT COMPLETELY FROM SOUTHERN  
MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING DUE TO THE LIMITED TIMING FOR STORMS TO  
REMAIN DRY BEFORE THEY BECOME MORE WET AS THEY MOVE EAST. HOWEVER,  
EXPECT STORMS THAT FORM TO INITIALLY BE DRIER AND RELATIVELY FAST  
MOVING, SO DECIDED AGAINST REMOVING IT COMPLETELY SINCE THERE IS  
STILL A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING TRIGGERED FIRE STARTS.  
 
..BENTLEY.. 08/14/2018  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 0147 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018/  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS  
TODAY. AN AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER  
THE AREA. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN  
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUX FROM THE  
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN AND MONSOON.  
   
..SNAKE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING
 
 
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH  
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND AFTERNOON RH FALLING TO 5-15%.  
   
..NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
 
WESTERN  
WYOMING...PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...  
WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, POTENTIAL  
EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL  
UTAH NORTHWARD INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA, WHERE PWAT VALUES OF  
0.5-0.75 INCH WILL COINCIDE WITH STORM MOTIONS OF 35-40 MPH. STORM  
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEVADA,  
HOWEVER, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER IN THIS REGION LEADING TO AN  
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL. A SCATTERED AREA WILL  
NOT BE INTRODUCED FOR THAT REGION.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 

 
 
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