874  
FGUS74 KMRX 011401  
ESFMRX  
NCC039-043-TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-  
073-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-153-155-  
163-171-173-179-VAC105-167-169-191-195-520-720-031415-  
 
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
901 AM EST THU MAR 1 2018 /801 AM CST THU MAR 1 2018/  
   
..THE 2018 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR EAST TENNESSEE
 
 
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...  
   
..FLOOD RISK IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FORECAST AREA
 
 
INTRODUCTION...  
 
THIS IS THE 2018 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE FOR EAST  
TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH  
CAROLINA. THIS ISSUANCE OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE  
CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE  
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.  
 
IN SUMMARY, THE 2018 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS DESCRIBE PAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS AND  
FUTURE EXPECTATIONS.  
 
SNOW PACK...  
 
SNOW PACK IS NEARLY ABSENT THANKS TO A WARM FEBRUARY.  
 
PRECIPITATION...  
 
OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS, THANKS TO A WET FEBRUARY, PRECIPITATION HAS  
GENERALLY RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS,  
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, TO OVER 200%  
OF NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MUCH OF  
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.  
 
OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS, PRECIPITATION RANGED GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 85  
PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE  
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE TO SOUTHWEST  
NORTH CAROLINA, TO 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.  
 
BEYOND 60 DAYS, DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL  
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES...  
 
DECEMBER TEMPERATURES AVERAGED ONLY 1 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL. JANUARY  
WAS A LITTLE COOLER, RUNNING 3 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FEBRUARY  
BROUGHT A FEW DAYS OF RECORD WARMTH, AND THE MONTH AS A WHOLE  
AVERAGED 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
DROUGHT...  
 
WHILE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE DISPLAYED BY THE  
DROUGHT MONITOR THIS WEEK IN THE COUNTIES SURROUNDING CHATTANOOGA,  
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING ABOUT THE END OF THOSE  
LINGERING CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE...  
 
FEBRUARY RAINS HAVE BROUGHT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS BACK TO NEAR  
SEASONAL NORMALS. RAINFALL THIS WEEK WILL TEMPORARILY BRING SURFACE  
SOILS TO SATURATION.  
 
STREAMFLOWS...  
 
STREAMFLOWS WERE NEAR TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO PLENTIFUL  
RAINFALL DURING FEBRUARY AND IN RECENT DAYS. THE LOCATIONS LISTED  
BELOW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD DURING THE CURRENT RAIN EVENT.  
HOWEVER, A FEW RIVERS IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE ARE EXPECTED  
TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING TODAY.  
 
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF DAILY NORMAL ARE GIVEN FOR RIVER POINTS  
IN, OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM, OUR HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA:  
 
RIVER... LOCATION... 2/28/18  
N FORK HOLSTON RIVER SALTVILLE VA 89%  
CLINCH RIVER CLEVELAND VA 145%  
CLINCH RIVER TAZEWELL TN 176%  
POWELL RIVER ARTHUR TN 255%  
EMORY RIVER OAKDALE TN 249%  
PIGEON RIVER HEPCO NC 91%  
FRENCH BROAD RIVER ASHEVILLE NC 106%  
 
TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN RESERVOIR LEVELS...  
 
DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD EVENTS, THE PERCENT OF AVAILABLE  
FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE FOR RESERVOIRS IN THE TENNESSEE BASIN ABOVE  
CHATTANOOGA IS DOWN TO 84 PERCENT.  
 
METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...  
 
THE WEEK TWO OUTLOOK FOR DAYS 8 TO 14 SHOWS AN EXPECTATION OF BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE  
TRENDS ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, MEANING THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES  
FOR BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT THERE IS A  
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EXPECTATION FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE LONGER TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF MARCH  
THROUGH MAY INDICATES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EXPECTATIONS FOR ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE 2018 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...  
 
BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD  
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,  
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BASINS.  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
 
THIS OUTLOOK WAS CREATED WITH INPUT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
FORECAST CENTER, THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY AUTHORITY, STATE AND COUNTY OFFICIALS, AND VARIOUS COOPERATIVE  
WEATHER SPOTTERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MORRISTOWN  
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC  
WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS  
WWW.TVA.GOV  
WWW.TENNESSEE.GOV/ENVIRONMENT  
WWW.DEQ.VIRGINIA.GOV  
WWW.NCWATER.ORG  
DROUGHT.UNL.EDU  
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV  
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
YOU MAY ALSO CONTACT...  
 
FOR GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION OF FORECASTS, CALL 423-586-3771.  
 
FOR INFORMATION RELATED TO THIS OUTLOOK, CONTACT...  
 
GLENN CARRIN, SERVICE HYDROLOGIST, AT 423-586-3771  
GEORGE MATHEWS, METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE  
AT 423-586-1964 MEDIA ONLY, PLEASE  
 
OR WRITE GLENN.CARRIN@NOAA.GOV AND GEORGE.MATHEWS@NOAA.GOV  
 

 
 
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