027  
FNUS74 KHUN 241044  
FWSHUN  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MILL CREEK/GRINDSTONE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
544 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 24.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ONE MORE DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION, BEFORE A SYSTEM  
NEARING FROM THE WEST BRINGS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE BURN SITE, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD WARM TO  
AROUND 74, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON  
AROUND 51 PERCENT. GENERALLY GOOD TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION  
RATES ARE FORECAST TODAY, WITH SURFACE IN THE 10 MPH RANGE AND  
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 22-26  
MPH RANGE WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 4000 FEET ABOVE GROUND  
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THE ABOVE NOTED SYSTEM WILL START BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BURN AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK  
SATURDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS  
THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
WESTERN ALABAMA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH STRONG TO  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 MPH, GUSTING AT TIMES  
TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE,  
AT TIMES HIGHER, RESULTING IN GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION RATES.  
RAINFALL TOTALS INTO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE BURN  
AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3800-4200 FT  
AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 22 TO 26 MPH.  
LVORI...............2.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TEMP............63 66 68 70 72 73 74 74 73  
RH..............67 61 59 55 53 53 51 51 53  
20 FT WIND DIR..160 160 160 170 170 170 170 170 170  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.160 170 170 180 180 180 180 180 180  
TRANSP WIND SPD.25 26 26 26 25 24 23 23 24  
DISPERSION IDX..34 36 58 63 64 65 64 65 68  
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.  
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 900-1600 FT  
AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 24 MPH...DECREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH  
LATE.  
LVORI...............3.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TEMP............72 71 68 67 65 64 63 63 62 61 60 60  
RH..............53 55 61 61 65 67 72 72 72 75 75 75  
20 FT WIND DIR..160 160 160 160 160 160 170 170 170 170 170 170  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 3.4 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.170 170 160 160 160 160 170 170 170 170 170 170  
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 24 22 18 16 18 21 23 21 16 14 16  
DISPERSION IDX..66 62 48 31 19 21 19 26 23 14 12 14  
LVORI...........1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0700...THEN 3 UNTIL 1000...THEN 4 UNTIL  
1300...THEN 5.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600-5100 FT  
AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 29 MPH...INCREASING TO 31 TO 33 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 23  
MPH LATE.  
LVORI...............3.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY  
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TEMP............59 59 60 63 65 66 68 69 70 71 71 70  
RH..............78 78 75 67 65 65 63 63 63 63 63 66  
20 FT WIND DIR..170 160 160 160 160 170 170 170 170 180 180 170  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.4 5.0 5.1 3.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.170 170 170 170 170 170 180 180 180 180 190 180  
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 23 23 23 23 25 29 31 33 33 31 23  
DISPERSION IDX..22 26 26 26 26 52 68 81 97 102 96 63  
LVORI...........4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
CWR.............10 50 50 50 60 60 60 80 80 80 80 80  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 50 50 50 60 60 60 80 80 80 80 80  
LAL.............1 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5  
 

 
FORECASTER...BOYD  
REQUESTED BY...KERRY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1705109.0/HUN  
.EMAIL KERRYCLARK@FS.FED.US  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab TN Page Main Text Page