134  
FNUS74 KHUN 111131  
FWSHUN  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MILL CREEK/GRINDSTONE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
631 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON APRIL 11.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH  
SPEEDS RISING INTO THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE AFTER 10 AM. LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND RH  
VALUES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 40 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE. MEANWHILE,  
HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE  
FOR GENERALLY GOOD TO GOOD DISPERSION CONDITIONS AT THE BURN SITE.  
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,  
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS  
RATHER LOW AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH THE BURN SITE AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER ON WEDNESDAY  
MORNING, THOUGH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE BURN  
SITE BY 10 AM. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH. DUE TO THE LIGHT  
SURFACE FLOW, RH VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS  
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING  
LIGHT LATE.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5000-6600 FT  
AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.  
LVORI...............3.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TEMP............68 73 77 79 80 81 81 80 79  
RH..............65 57 48 42 39 37 37 38 39  
20 FT WIND DIR..220 230 220 220 210 220 220 220 230  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 3.9 5.0 5.9 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.210 230 230 230 230 220 220 220 220  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 14 15 14 13 12 12 10 9  
DISPERSION IDX..8 9 86 91 58 53 53 46 39  
LVORI...........4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE  
EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE  
EVENING...DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE  
EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1800 FT  
AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO  
12 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
LVORI...............4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TEMP............77 75 72 69 67 65 63 62 61 61 60 59  
RH..............42 46 53 61 68 75 81 87 87 87 90 93  
20 FT WIND DIR..240 250 280 330 350 000 030 040 030 030 020 020  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.3 3.3 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.220 230 260 320 350 000 030 040 040 060 060 050  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 8 10 12 12 9 8 7 5 5 6  
DISPERSION IDX..41 23 23 23 18 11 4 4 3 2 2 3  
LVORI...........1 2 2 2 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6  
CWR.............10 10 20 30 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 30 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.  
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-6400 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
LVORI...............4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW  
TEMP............58 59 61 64 69 72 76 79 80 81 81 80  
RH..............93 90 87 81 68 61 52 45 44 41 41 42  
20 FT WIND DIR..020 020 020 030 040 040 030 030 030 030 030 030  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.9 4.2 5.2 6.0 6.4 6.1 4.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.020 010 010 020 020 020 020 020 020 020 020 030  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7  
DISPERSION IDX..4 4 4 5 5 25 34 41 46 40 39 39  
LVORI...........6 5 5 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1  
CWR.............20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
 

 
FORECASTER...CHACE  
REQUESTED BY...KERRY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1705959.3/HUN  
.EMAIL KERRYCLARK@FS.FED.US  
 
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