008  
FXUS64 KMRX 281905  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
305 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW  
AND MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY HAVE  
SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE USUAL RIVERS AND LAKES LATE TONIGHT,  
BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE. A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH OVER LA AND MS WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION  
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH THE  
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER  
SHOULD ACT TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW  
GUIDANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.  
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND  
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM  
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 
   
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
 
 
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE AREA WILL BE ALMOST IN A  
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE  
REGIME HAS ALREADY STARTED. AT THAT TIME THE CLOSEST FRONT WILL  
BE A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST STRETCHING FROM  
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER  
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WILL BE AMPLIFYING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE  
GETTING CLOSER TO THE AREA, AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE MUCH  
HIGHER WITH PW VALUES OVER IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE  
AREA.  
 
BY SUNDAY THE SCENARIO GETS MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AS THE MODELS  
DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS--HOWEVER, WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THAT THE  
FRONT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION, BUT THE OVERALL WIND FIELD  
WILL BE WEAK AND WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT. SO ALTHOUGH IF THE  
FRONT IS IN THE GENERAL AREA, IT MAY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A  
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS OR EVEN ORGANIZED FLOODING  
RAINS.  
 
FOR TEMPS AND MUGGINESS--LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START FEELING MORE LIKE  
SUMMER AGAIN AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT FOR SUN, MON, TUE IT  
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMUP MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT 1) IF THE FRONT  
PASSES AND GETS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND/OR 2) WITH  
MORE CLOUDS AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS/LIFT OVER THE AREA WILL  
SUPPRESS TEMPS FROM GETTING REALLY HOT--POPULATED SUPERBLEND TEMPS  
LOOK GOOD OVERALL--WENT ABOUT 1 DEG COOLER FOR TMAX MON AND TUE.  
 
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZE STORMS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND  
SATURDAY EVENING WHILE THE WIND FIELD IS STILL MORE FAVORABLE,  
HOWEVER, THE FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR  
AREAS, BUT WE COULD SEE THE TAIL-END OF THAT CONVECTION AS IT MOVES  
EAST. ONCE AGAIN, BY SUNDAY THE WIND FIELD LOOKS MUCH WEAKER.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 82 70 83 / 10 60 30 70  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 86 68 82 / 10 20 20 50  
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 86 68 83 / 10 20 20 50  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 87 64 81 / 0 10 10 40  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
JB/GM  
 
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