068
FXUS64 KMRX 040229
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
258 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2009
DISCUSSION
FORECAST ON TRACK. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THE
30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD. SON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON/S FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND
BRING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS.
AS A RESULT...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET HAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS
SEASON. ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK...DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...MOISTURE AND LIFT QUITE LIMITED AND
EXPECT MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS GENERALLY
CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUN AND CONTINUITY WAS KEPT WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH VERY BRIEF WEAK
FORCING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT DOES EXTEND UP TO AROUND 700 MBS
FROM BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND NAM-WRF MODELS. HOWEVER...I DON'T EXPECT
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM A PASSING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS. I ADDED THIS TO FORECAST FOR JUST SW VA AND THE NRN MTNS OF
E TN...AND DRY OTHERWISE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS VERY SLUGGISH TO MOVE EAST...
KEEPING LOW MOISTURE ALMOST NON-EXISTANT UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. BROUGHT LOW POPS INTO THE FORECAST AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY...
BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE...IF RIDGING HOLDS LONGER.
TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY...MAINLY A NUDGE UPWARD ON MAX TEMPS GIVEN
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 39 66 42 63 37 / 0 0 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 36 63 40 59 35 / 0 0 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 36 63 40 58 35 / 0 0 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 60 38 57 32 / 0 10 10 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...
BRADLEY...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...JEFFERSON...
KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...NW BLOUNT...NORTH
SEVIER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...
ROANE...SEQUATCHIE...UNION...WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
MJB/TG
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