244
FXUS64 KOHX 071819
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1219 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING TO BE POSTED ACR MID TN W/SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SPOTS. R/H IS BORDERLINE AT 30 PERCENT BUT
COULD MIX DOWN LOWER.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1151 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGHOUT. GRAD WINDS PLUS S/B HEATING CAUSED GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH THIS MORNING. PRES GRAD WL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH FLOW TNGT WITH SOME CIRRUS SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
WITH TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY AROUND 70...WILL RAISE
HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS MID STATE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 25 MPH...WILL UPDATE WINDS TO
ADDRESS THIS SITUATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NC WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WELL ESTABLISHED. KOHX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS SFC AND ALOFT. SATELLITE/SFC OBS DEPICTING SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO INCREASED
SWLY FLOW USHERING IN A WARMER AIR MASS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
21 MPH FROM THE SW. CURRENT GRIDDED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN CURRENT VALUES AND EXPECT WAA PATTERN TO CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E...BUT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ACROSS THE MID STATE
TODAY...AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL MINIMAL
AT BEST.
THUS...WILL RAISE HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S WEST OF
PLATEAU...AROUND 70 NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND LOWER 70S SOUTHERN PLATEAU
REGIONS. WILL UPDATE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH
CURRENTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE
AVIATION...
LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH BNA/CSV THROUGH 12Z
SUN. SURFACE WINDS AT 11Z THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
170/05KT AT BNA AND 200/05KTS AT CSV BUT WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 KTS FROM ABOUT 190
DEGS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS. BELIEVE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING FROM
12Z TO 15Z THIS MORNING IN TAFS. SHEAR THROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD
IMPROVE ONCE MIXING GETS ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TAF SITES.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE CYCLE.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC/LL HIGHS CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ...WITH UL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY VICINITY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...WITH UL HIGHS STRENGTHENING SOME OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT STRING OF DRY WEATHER RUNNING THROUGH
THAT TIME.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CENTER OF TD IDA EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHILE A COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SFC/LL HIGHS
BREAKDOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA MOVES LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND UL
TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST US BUT IS MUCH
MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH/EAST. IDA MEANDERS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT AND UL TROUGH AXIS SLIP BY...WITH
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UL RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ULTIMATELY...MAIN BRUNT OF IDA SEEMINGLY NEVER MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE CWA OTHER THAN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EAST AND SOUTH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING WHILE BOUNDARY / UPPER RIDGE PUSH DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PICTURE.
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE FIRMLY BACK INTO THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY...UPPER
RIDGE / LL HIGHS BREAKDOWN ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS LATE...POSSIBLY RETURNING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 44 74 51 71 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 45 75 51 71 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 39 74 45 70 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 43 74 51 71 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 42 74 49 70 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 45 74 52 70 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
04
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