660  
FXUS64 KOHX 291209  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
709 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
IT WAS VERY WARM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ALL STATIONS IN THE 70S  
AT 3AM...SOME EVEN IN THE MID 70S...THANKS TO YESTERDAY'S WARM  
FRONT NOW LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH PLUS STEADY SOUTH BREEZES.  
 
ALL THE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION WAS WELL TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT  
AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS  
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAY APPROACH  
RECORD VALUES THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUCH A WARM START TO  
THE DAY. DEEP SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL HELP INCREASE SOUTHERLY  
WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE  
TONIGHT AND HELP CAUSE ANOTHER BALMY NIGHT.  
 
WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL  
PROBABLY BE NEEDED AS GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH. THE NEXT  
THREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MOVES INTO KS. WILL GO  
WITH LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR WESTERN  
COUNTIES...DECREASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDSTATE. HOWEVER, NEAR  
100 POPS AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS BAND OF STORMS SWEEPS FROM WEST  
TN THROUGH MIDDLE TN. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE SUNDAY EVENING  
MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THE RAINS WILL END LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT OVER THE PLATEAU WHERE POPS ARE NEEDED  
THOUGH MONDAY MORNING.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM KS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY  
IN THE WEEK, LEAVING TN IN ZONAL FLOW FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY  
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS DEVELOP A NEW TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL  
U.S. BY MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE  
MIDSTATE BY WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST THEREAFTER IS COMPLICATED BY THE BIG  
DIFFERENCE IN THE WAY THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE TROUGH/LOW LATE  
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS AN INTERESTING PATTERN OF A CLOSED LOW  
MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF TN...WHILE THE  
ECMWF HAS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EITHER WAY, IT  
WILL BE COOLER AND POSSIBLY SHOWERY LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.  
 
WARM FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY EXPECTED TO  
HOLD IN THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH  
TODAY/TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT  
WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY  
CKV/BNA.  
 

 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION......49  
AVIATION........07  
 
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