456  
FXUS64 KOHX 221137 AAA  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MOSAIC RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT  
ROUGHLY FROM DANE COUNTY...WI...TO QUINCY...IL...TO FORT  
SMITH...AR...TO TERRELL...TX. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION  
ON THE SOUTHERN PART...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES  
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR AFTER 12Z. BY 12Z THE HRRR...SREF...AND  
RAP HAVE PRECIP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA BUT IT TAKES UNTIL  
21Z TO MOISTEN UP. EVEN AT 21Z THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION  
MODELS STILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF I-65. THE MODELS TRY  
TO PULL THE PRECIP QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY SO DID MAKE  
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME WRAP  
AROUND MOISTURE SO DID NOT REMOVE EVERYTHING AND LEFT CHANCE POPS  
FOR THE EASTERN THIRD MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
QPF AMOUNTS SEEM TO HAVE COME DONE A BIT. HAVE A STORM TOTAL QPF  
OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. INSTABILITY HAS REALLY WEAKENED TOO. SINCE I  
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE HWO LAST NIGHT I REALLY HATE TO TAKE  
IT OUT ESPECIALLY SINCE WPC HAS A SLIGHT AROUND OUR AREA. THERE  
COULD STILL BE SOME TRAINING STORMS AND SOME ELEVATED RUMBLES OF  
THUNDER TONIGHT. DON/T SEE ANY INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO HAVE  
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
STILL LOOKS COOLER AFTER THIS SYSTEM WITH LOW TEMPERATURES  
WEDNESDAY MORNING 35 TO 40 AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE  
50S. CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST  
CONCERNS. A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK  
WEEK.  
 
THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT NEXT  
WEEKEND SO REALLY DIDN'T MAKE MANY CHANGES OTHER THAN TO REMOVE  
THUNDER. SEE ZERO INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE  
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THERE COULD BE  
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL -SHRA BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD  
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEGINNING AFTER 00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT  
LEAST 12Z. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED  
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE -SHRA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO  
INCLUDE ANY TS DEVELOPMENT AS PINPOINTING EXACT TIMING IS FAR TOO  
DIFFICULT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER  
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.  
 

 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION......12  
AVIATION........HURLEY  
 
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