337  
FGUS74 KBRO 161720  
ESFBRO  
TXC047-171720-  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
1120 AM CST THU NOV 16 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE LOS OLMOS CREEK BASIN IN DEEP  
SOUTH TEXAS...  
 
THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE  
HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE  
(AHPS) FOR THE LOS OLMOS CREEK BASIN IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE  
THE CHANCE THE CREEK COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS  
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE LOS OLMOS CREEK NEAR FALFURRIAS  
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 11 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE  
THE FALFURRIAS FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 1.8 FEET DURING  
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID [11/15/2017 - 02/13/2018]  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ----- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
LOS OLMOS CREEK  
FALFURRIAS 11.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 3.5  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE CREEK AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS  
CAN BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=BRO  
 
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
HALLMAN  
 
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