316  
FGUS74 KCRP 181617  
ESFCRP  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
1117 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH TEXAS...  
 
THE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE  
GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC  
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT VICTORIA HAS A  
FLOOD STAGE OF 21 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE VICTORIA  
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 18.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID [ 05/17/2017 - 08/15/2017 ]  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
GUADALUPE RIVER  
VICTORIA 21.0 8.8 10.1 12.1 13.7 18.0 22.2 25.7 27.4 29.0  
BLOOMINGTON 20.0 15.0 17.3 20.0 21.7 23.6 24.8 25.7 26.5 27.1  
 
COLETO CREEK  
ARNOLD ROAD CR. 15.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 5.0 8.9 9.8 10.8 12.0 16.3  
HWY 59 VICTORIA 25.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 6.0 7.7 9.0 11.8  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?CRP.  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
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