223  
FGUS74 KCRP 201453  
ESFCRP  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
953 AM CDT THU APR 20 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NUECES RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH TEXAS...  
 
THE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS  
IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR  
THE NUECES RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC  
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE NUECAS RIVER AT CALALLEN HAS A  
FLOOD STAGE OF 7 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE CALALLEN  
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 7.6 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID 04/19/2017 - 07/18/2017  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
ARANSAS RIVER  
SKIDMORE 13.0 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.2 10.7 12.8 16.1 23.6 36.1  
 
ATASCOSA RIVER  
WHITSETT 20.0 2.5 2.9 6.7 10.9 15.0 18.5 22.9 24.7 28.6  
 
FRIO RIVER  
TILDEN 22.0 3.5 4.5 6.4 11.6 17.1 18.5 20.3 22.1 27.3  
 
SAN MIGUEL CREEK  
TILDEN 21.0 2.0 3.1 4.5 5.1 6.0 7.9 12.2 17.4 24.4  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
NUECES RIVER  
COTULLA 15.0 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 14.1 15.3 17.7 18.9 22.7  
TILDEN 14.0 11.3 11.3 13.3 16.1 18.4 19.3 19.8 21.5 22.0  
THREE RIVERS 25.0 8.3 8.6 20.6 24.1 26.4 28.3 30.9 34.7 38.4  
MATHIS 25.0 6.2 8.9 15.1 20.2 22.6 25.2 27.3 28.6 31.3  
BLUNTZER 18.0 12.1 14.5 18.1 22.2 24.1 25.9 29.1 31.2 38.0  
CALALLEN 7.0 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5 8.9  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?CRP.  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
TJC  
 
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