211  
FGUS74 KCRP 151656  
ESFCRP  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
1156 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH  
TEXAS...  
 
THE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE  
SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC  
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER AT GOLIAD HAS A  
FLOOD STAGE OF 25 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE GOLIAD  
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 14.2 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID 06/14/2017 - 09/12/2017  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
SAN ANTONIO RIVER  
GOLIAD 25.0 7.9 10.2 11.7 13.2 14.2 18.2 19.9 23.2 28.0  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?CRP.  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
92  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page