805  
FGUS74 KEWX 161523  
ESFEWX  
170923-  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
1023 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH  
CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE  
HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE  
(AHPS) FOR THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE  
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS  
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER AT ELMENDORF  
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 35 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE  
THE ELMENDORF FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE  
27.1 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID [6/14/2017 - 9/12/2017]  
 
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
MEDINA RIVER  
BANDERA 13.0 4.0 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.9 8.2 11.8 20.1 31.8  
LA COSTE 15.0 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 10.7 22.0  
SOMERSET 18.0 4.4 4.7 5.4 5.7 6.5 7.3 8.1 11.9 23.5  
US HWY 281 20.0 3.5 3.6 4.2 5.1 6.1 7.6 11.0 18.5 28.2  
 
LEON CREEK  
I-35 18.0 2.8 3.0 3.7 7.0 8.2 10.1 11.2 11.9 13.9  
 
SALADO CREEK  
LOOP 13 18.0 6.9 7.4 8.2 9.2 9.9 10.3 11.2 13.0 15.7  
 
SAN ANTONIO RIVER  
ELMENDORF 35.0 14.4 15.8 18.3 23.1 27.1 29.3 32.6 35.1 42.2  
FLORESVILLE 27.0 9.2 11.4 12.7 13.6 16.3 19.2 21.8 23.8 33.5  
FALLS CITY 12.0 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.4 11.2  
RUNGE AT HWY 72 27.0 12.8 14.4 15.7 16.9 18.0 22.5 24.6 27.7 34.0  
 
CIBOLO CREEK  
SELMA 17.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 4.4 5.9 7.5 10.3  
SUTHERLAND SPGS 21.0 6.8 6.9 7.7 10.4 13.3 16.5 18.5 20.4 29.9  
NR FALLS CITY 17.0 1.1 1.2 1.8 3.5 5.8 8.0 10.3 11.9 21.1  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE CURRENT RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS  
CAN BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=EWX  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page