141  
FGUS74 KEWX 181600  
ESFEWX  
191000-  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
1100 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH  
CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE  
HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE  
(AHPS) FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE  
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS  
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT GONZALES  
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 31 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE  
THE GONZALES FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 20.4 FEET DURING  
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID 05/17/2017 - 08/15/2017  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
GUADALUPE RIVER  
HUNT 10.0 7.9 7.9 8.5 9.1 9.2 9.6 11.4 17.2 22.7  
KERRVILLE 9.0 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.0 4.5 8.9 15.9 19.8  
COMFORT 21.0 3.6 3.6 4.6 6.0 7.1 9.4 15.6 23.2 27.3  
SPRING BRANCH 30.0 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.7 5.8 7.7 13.3 26.6 35.4  
SATTLER 9.0 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 8.3  
ABV COMAL NB 7.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 5.8 6.6  
BLW COMAL NB 13.0 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.5 14.0 16.3  
SEGUIN 19.0 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.6 18.9 20.9 24.2 27.9  
GONZALES 31.0 14.1 14.5 15.4 16.8 20.4 25.3 32.2 36.2 40.7  
CUERO 24.0 10.2 11.2 12.6 14.3 17.0 18.5 22.9 25.7 32.4  
 
COMAL RIVER  
COMAL 11.0 4.6 3.5 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.7 15.1 21.2  
 
BLANCO RIVER  
WIMBERLEY 13.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.6 5.3 5.7 6.7 7.9 12.4  
KYLE N/A  
 
SAN MARCOS RIVER  
LULING 20.0 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.6 10.4 12.6 14.9 20.7 25.7  
 
PLUM CREEK  
NEAR LULING 23.0 5.0 6.5 7.7 9.4 11.7 18.6 20.5 23.0 24.0  
 
PEACH CREEK  
BLW DILWORTH 23.0  
 
SANDIES CREEK  
NEAR WESTHOFF 21.0 4.1 5.1 7.8 10.1 11.6 13.1 16.0 18.4 21.1  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE CURRENT RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS  
CAN BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=EWX  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
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