674  
FGUS74 KFWD 161625  
ESFFWD  
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-  
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-  
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-170425-  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
1025 AM CST THU NOV 16 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) FOR THE  
TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING  
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE WEST FORK OF THE TRINITY RIVER  
NEAR JACKSBORO HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT  
CHANCE THE JACKSBORO FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE  
11.3 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID 11/15/2017 - 2/13/2018  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
WEST FORK TRINITY RIVER  
JACKSBORO 20.0 5.0 6.3 6.5 7.4 11.3 16.5 18.6 19.6 21.2  
BOYD 16.0 7.6 7.6 8.9 11.4 12.4 14.3 16.4 17.1 18.3  
FORT WORTH 20.0 1.9 2.3 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.4 6.0 7.5  
GRAND PRAIRIE 30.0 9.5 11.4 12.5 13.3 14.4 15.7 17.9 20.8 29.5  
BIG SANDY CREEK  
BRIDGEPORT 12.0 1.5 2.9 4.0 4.7 5.3 7.2 9.2 9.8 11.4  
CLEAR FORK TRINITY RIVER  
WEATHERFORD 15.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.1 8.6  
FORT WORTH 15.0 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.2 12.9 14.3  
DENTON CREEK  
JUSTIN 10.0 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.7 8.1 8.9 14.4  
ELM FORK TRINITY RIVER  
GAINESVILLE 22.0 3.9 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.4 9.0 9.7 10.2 12.3  
CARROLLTON 8.0 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.9 8.6  
CLEAR CREEK  
SANGER 25.0 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.4 9.5 10.4 11.3 12.8 15.7  
SISTER GROVE CREEK  
BLUE RIDGE 24.0 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.8 14.9 16.6 20.7  
EAST FORK TRINITY RIVER  
MCKINNEY 16.0 6.3 7.4 8.4 9.6 10.8 12.9 17.0 19.5 20.4  
CRANDALL 18.0 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.4 4.0 13.0  
CHAMBERS CREEK  
RICE 24.0 3.9 6.6 8.9 9.8 12.1 13.3 16.3 19.4 28.5  
TRINITY RIVER  
DALLAS 30.0 23.3 25.6 26.9 28.2 28.9 31.5 32.7 34.8 38.8  
ROSSER 31.0 8.8 11.4 12.6 13.6 14.1 17.7 19.0 22.3 34.2  
TRINIDAD 33.0 13.9 17.0 18.3 19.7 21.6 25.4 27.8 42.7 46.1  
LONG LAKE 35.0 10.5 12.1 14.9 15.1 18.3 18.8 20.7 38.3 41.8  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
LK WORTH 597.0 594.0 594.1 594.1 594.2 594.2 594.4 594.7 595.4 596.2  
LK ARLINGTON 544.9 545.7 545.9 546.3 546.7 548.0 548.5 549.3 551.8  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
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