995  
FGUS74 KFWD 151555  
ESFFWD  
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-  
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-  
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-160355-  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
1055 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) FOR THE  
SABINE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING  
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SOUTH FORK OF THE SABINE RIVER  
NEAR QUINLAN HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT  
CHANCE THE QUINLAN FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 14.3 FEET  
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID 06/14/2017 - 09/12/2017  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
SOUTH FORK SABINE RIVER  
QUINLAN 15.0 4.6 4.6 8.2 13.4 14.3 15.0 16.3 16.8 17.3  
COWLEECH FORK SABINE RIVER  
GREENVILLE 14.0 3.8 4.2 5.4 6.6 10.7 15.0 16.3 16.6 16.9  
 
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
LK TAWAKONI 435.9 435.9 435.9 435.9 435.9 436.0 436.0 436.3 436.6  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
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