504  
FGUS74 KFWD 201950  
ESFFWD  
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-  
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-  
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-210750-  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
250 PM CDT THU APR 20 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) FOR THE  
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE BRAZOS RIVER NEAR SOUTH BEND HAS A  
FLOOD STAGE OF 21 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE SOUTH  
BEND FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 11.8 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID 4/19/2017 - 07/18/2017  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
BIG SANDY CREEK  
BRECKENRIDGE 24.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.2 4.3 4.8 5.5 16.5 25.0  
UPPER BRAZOS RIVER  
SOUTH BEND 21.0 6.9 8.8 10.4 11.0 11.8 13.3 16.7 19.0 22.2  
PALO PINTO 18.0 2.6 4.5 5.7 5.9 6.5 8.3 10.1 11.2 13.2  
DENNIS 25.0 3.0 4.7 6.4 6.9 7.6 9.1 10.8 13.6 15.0  
GLEN ROSE 29.0 6.1 7.9 8.5 8.9 9.7 11.0 12.2 14.9 16.9  
AQUILLA 29.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.4  
PALUXY RIVER  
GLEN ROSE 22.0 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 6.0 6.5 7.1 8.3 14.5  
NOLAN RIVER  
BLUM 24.0 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.6 5.8 6.6 15.3  
LOWER BRAZOS RIVER  
WACO 27.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 9.4 17.7 19.6  
HIGHBANK 35.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.8 11.2 14.5 23.2 26.9  
NORTH BOSQUE RIVER  
HICO 24.0 6.7 7.2 8.0 8.6 9.3 10.5 11.4 13.2 18.5  
CLIFTON 23.0 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.8 6.0 7.0 8.5 9.9 14.2  
VALLEY MILLS 36.0 6.9 7.0 7.7 8.3 9.9 11.2 13.4 16.2 23.7  
HOG CREEK  
CRAWFORD 14.0 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.8 5.6 6.8 8.1 11.1  
MIDDLE BOSQUE RIVER  
MCGREGOR 20.0 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.4 7.8 12.6 17.8  
SABANA RIVER  
DE LEON 19.0 5.0 7.2 8.5 9.6 11.6 14.8 17.5 19.5 21.1  
LEON RIVER  
DE LEON 12.0 1.9 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.0 4.7 6.3 7.9 10.5  
HAMILTON 26.0 6.7 8.0 8.6 9.9 10.5 11.6 12.3 14.9 24.3  
GATESVILLE 22.0 5.7 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.9 8.3 9.5 13.1 26.6  
BELTON 14.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.7  
COWHOUSE CREEK  
PIDCOKE 20.0 7.8 8.9 9.2 10.3 11.5 13.0 14.3 26.9 32.7  
LAMPASAS RIVER  
KEMPNER 18.0 3.5 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.8 7.7 9.4  
LITTLE RIVER  
LITTLE RIVER 30.0 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 16.1 18.8  
ROCKDALE 30.0 16.7 18.1 21.2 22.5 24.5 26.1 27.6 31.0 33.8  
CAMERON 30.0 12.1 12.1 12.3 13.9 15.9 18.0 19.2 23.9 29.1  
NAVASOTA RIVER  
GROESBECK 7.0 3.0 3.7 3.9 4.3 5.4 6.8 8.4 10.1 11.1  
EASTERLY 19.0 13.2 15.2 18.6 20.4 21.4 22.1 23.0 23.7 24.7  
 
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%  
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
LK GRAHAM 1074.8 1074.8 1075.0 1075.4 1075.7 1076.1 1076.4  
HUBBARD CR LK 1183.0 1183.0 1183.0 1183.1 1183.2 1183.5 1183.8  
LK LEON 1372.7 1372.7 1372.8 1372.8 1373.0 1373.4 1374.4  
20% 10%  
--- ---  
LK GRAHAM 1076.8 1077.1  
HUBBARD CR LK 1184.3 1185.6  
LK LEON 1375.1 1376.2  
 
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
LK PALO PINTO 866.7 866.8 866.9 867.0 867.1 867.1 867.2 867.3 867.8  
LK PAT CLEBURNE 733.8 733.8 733.8 733.8 733.8 734.0 734.3 734.7 736.0  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
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