541  
FNUS74 KEPZ 251809  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HEADWATERS...US FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
1209 PM MDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1200 MDT ON APRIL 25.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH  
THE AREA, WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO  
SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX TODAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND  
THURSDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE  
NORTHEAST, SENDS A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT.  
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA, THAN THE  
FIRST FRONT AND HELP FUEL STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY FRIDAY MAINLY WEST  
OF THE RIO GRANDE AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. ACTIVITY WILL BE  
HIGH BASED, WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, AS THE  
MAIN IMPACTS.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS (25-40 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.  
MIN HUMIDITY........10 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......12500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (103900 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........10 20 40  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............67 72 73  
RH..............14 12 10  
20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 8 W 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15  
MIX HGT (FT)....12500 12500 12500  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9 W 9 W 9  
HAINES INDEX....4 5 5  
VENT RATE.......VYGD VYGD VYGD  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.  
MAX HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......11800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 5 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (102600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR  
(0 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM  
SKY (%).........50 40 30 25 5 0  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............69 63 54 49 46 42  
RH..............10 15 25 30 35 40  
20 FT WIND......W 10 W 9 NW 8 W 7 W 7 W 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....11800 11800 11800 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 W 9 NW 7 W 5 W 3 W 3  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4  
VENT RATE.......VYGD VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY  
(40-50 PERCENT). A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OR AN  
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................2.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.  
MIN HUMIDITY........10 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13900 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 11 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (51100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD  
(115600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 AM 8 AM 11 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........0 15 38 45  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE ISOLD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 2  
TEMP............38 46 65 70  
RH..............40 35 20 12  
20 FT WIND......W 7G10 NW 7 NW 10 NW 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....6200 6200 13900 13900  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 2 W 5 NW 10 NW 10  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5  
VENT RATE.......FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD  
 

 
 
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1807734.1/EPZ  
.EMAIL NMSDC@FS.FED.US  
 
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