658  
FNUS74 KEPZ 170004  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SOLDIER CANYON...BIA-MESCALERO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
604 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JUNE 17.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BEGIN ON SUNDAY AFTER SATURDAY'S  
CLOUDS AND RAIN. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR  
SOME AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE  
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
 
...PERCENTAGES SHOWN IN THE SKY/WEATHER PORTION REFLECT  
SKY COVER AMOUNT...  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6600 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 11 TO 12 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........35 35 35 30 30 30  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............53 58 70 71 74 76  
RH..............80 64 39 36 32 30  
20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 SW 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 10 10 11 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 500 6600 6600 6600  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8 W 12 W 13 SW 12 SW 13 SW 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 3 3  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.  
MAX HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........20 20 20 20 20 20  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............73 69 62 59 56 55  
RH..............31 36 46 51 57 61  
20 FT WIND......SW 9 W 8 W 7 NW 6 NW 6 N 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 11 10 7 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1200 1200 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 W 3 W 3 SW 7 SW 8 SW 6  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 2  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.  
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7800 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 7 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........18 18 18 18  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............53 69 75 80  
RH..............66 37 31 26  
20 FT WIND......N 4G6 NW 5G7 W 6G10 SW 7G10  
MIX HGT (FT)....200 200 7800 7800  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 2 SW 5 S 2 S 5  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...BRICE  
REQUESTED BY...DANIEL DYER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1811589.0/EPZ  
.DELDT 06/16/18  
.EMAIL NDNDYER@HOTMAIL.COM  
 
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