085  
FNUS74 KEPZ 161921  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH SPRINGS...NM-MEA (BIA)  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
121 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1400 MDT ON AUGUST 16.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE FIRE WEATHER  
ZONES TODAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN  
DAILY ROUNDS OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL  
BRING READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID- AUGUST. CLOUDS WILL  
INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FED BY AMPLE DAYTIME  
HEATING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH SOME STORMS, AND THUS  
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. DRIER AIR AND FEWER  
STORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN RH VALUES  
WILL RUN IN THE 30S LOWLANDS AND 40S AND 50S HIGHLANDS FOR  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200, THEN 4.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80-85.  
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........ESE 3 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 4 TO  
5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (54000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........73 73  
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........SCTTRD SCTTRD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40  
LAL.............4 4  
TEMP............78 77  
RH..............42 43  
20 FT WIND......SW 6 S 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....9000 9000  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 W 5  
HAINES INDEX....3 3  
VENT RATE.......600D GOOD  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400, THEN 3.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND  
5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 2 TO 3 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........76 76 76 79 79 79  
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 20 20 20  
LAL.............4 4 4 4 4 4  
TEMP............76 73 67 64 61 59  
RH..............45 49 61 67 72 78  
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 6 S 5 S 3 S 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 7 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....9000 400 400 100 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 6 W 3 W 2 W 1 N 2 N 2  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VENT RATE.......GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................4 UNTIL 1200, THEN 5.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.  
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (400-45900 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........70 70 70 70  
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 60 60  
LAL.............4 4 5 5  
TEMP............58 68 77 76  
RH..............80 57 43 46  
20 FT WIND......SE 5G6 SE 5G7 S 6G8 S 6G8  
MIX HGT (FT)....200 200 600 600  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 2 E 5 SE 6 S 6  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3  
VENT RATE.......POOR POOR FAIR FAIR  
 

 
FORECASTER...NOVLAN  
REQUESTED BY...GEORGE GALLARDO  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1814619.0/EPZ  
.DELDT 08/16/18  
.EMAIL NMADC@FS.FED.US  
 
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