911
FNUS74 KEPZ 241749
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR 16 SPRINGS RX...USDA FORES SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1149 AM MDT WED APR 24 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY
..HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ELEVATED CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR AREA
WIDE. MIN RH AROUND 14%. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 12
MPH LEADING TO VERY GOOD SMOKE VENTILATION THIS AFTERNOON.
CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY,
PERHAPS THE MOST SEVERE OF THIS SEASON SO FAR. CRITICAL RH
COMBINED WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 50
TO 55MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (69000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (168100 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........61 61 78
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1
TEMP............68 70 69
RH..............17 15 14
20 FT WIND......SW 12 SW 12 SW 12
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 24
MIX HGT (FT)....8600 8500 8500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 21 SW 22 SW 22
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4
VRATE KT-FT/1K..166 168 168
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT EXNT EXNT
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 29 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (110800 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(9100 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........92 92 75 63 63 56
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............65 59 55 53 52 51
RH..............15 19 21 23 25 26
20 FT WIND......SW 11 SW 11 SW 7 SW 9 SW 9 W 13
20 FT WIND GUST.21 21 15 20 20 29
MIX HGT (FT)....5800 5800 700 700 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 20 SW 20 SW 18 SW 18 W 23 W 23
HAINES INDEX....3 4 5 5 4 4
VRATE KT-FT/1K..111 111 9 9 11 11
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 46 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 31 TO 34
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 35 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 50 TO 52 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (102000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (384100 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........52 36 9 5
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
TEMP............51 57 63 64
RH..............27 21 16 15
20 FT WIND......W 20G41 SW 25G46 SW 31G53 SW 34G55
MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2800 8400 10300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 35 W 35 SW 50 SW 52
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 4
VRATE KT-FT/1K..102 102 384 446
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
FORECASTER...LANEY
REQUESTED BY...MATTHEW BARONE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412306.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MATTHEW.BARONE@USDA.GOV
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