931  
FNUS74 KEPZ 280026  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CORRAL...GILA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
626 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1900 MDT ON JUNE 27.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING BACK TO AROUND LOW 90 FOR THE BURN  
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE  
DIGITS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE SURGE IN  
MOISTURE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING  
ABOUT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.  
MAX HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH  
UNTIL EARLY MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......12300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (208400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR  
(1300 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM  
SKY (%).........56 56 56 21 21 21  
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 0 0 0  
LAL.............2 2 2 1 1 1  
TEMP............79 70 61 56 52 52  
RH..............19 22 25 25 26 23  
20 FT WIND......W 13 W 11 W 11 W 9 W 7 W 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 20 20 15 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....12300 12300 12300 200 200 200  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 16 W 8 W 8 W 8 W 7 W 6  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 6 5 4 5  
VENT RATE.......EXNT EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-87.  
MIN HUMIDITY........8-9 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10100 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 19 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (97700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT  
(153400 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........31 31 31 46 46 46  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............50 61 76 82 85 85  
RH..............24 16 10 9 9 9  
20 FT WIND......W 6 W 9 W 13 W 16 W 16 W 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 25 30 30 30  
MIX HGT (FT)....6600 6600 6600 10100 10100 10100  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 6 W 13 W 17 W 17 W 16 W 17  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5  
VENT RATE.......GOOD GOOD GOOD EXNT EXNT EXNT  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-52.  
MAX HUMIDITY........36-39 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 11 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (141400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR  
(1500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........14 14 14 14  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............84 71 59 53  
RH..............11 18 27 35  
20 FT WIND......W 12G25 W 8G15 NW 6G10 NW 6G10  
MIX HGT (FT)....8300 8300 200 200  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 20 W 10 W 10 W 10  
HAINES INDEX....5 4 5 5  
VENT RATE.......VYGD VYGD POOR POOR  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-88.  
MIN HUMIDITY........10-11 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 19 TO 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (93500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD  
(144400 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........36 36 36  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............51 77 85  
RH..............38 15 11  
20 FT WIND......NW 7G15 W 7G15 W 9G15  
MIX HGT (FT)....5500 5500 9500  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9 W 18 W 18  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 5  
VENT RATE.......GOOD GOOD VYGD  
 

 
FORECASTER...PAZOS  
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1711287.8/EPZ  
.EMAIL NMSDC@FS.FED.US  
 
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