260  
FNUS74 KFWD 241347  
FWSFWD  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CLEAR LAKE RX...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
847 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 24.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
 
   
..WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE  
MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FIRE  
LOCATION WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S BY NOON AND INTO THE  
TEENS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE  
INCREASE AS THEY GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY,  
AND EVENTUALLY AROUND TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WIND  
SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED  
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THESE  
CONDITIONS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING  
WHICH INCLUDES THE FIRE LOCATION. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE  
RAPIDLY AFTER SKIES CLEAR BY LATE MORNING, REACHING AROUND 8 KFT  
BY MIDDAY AND PEAKING AROUND 11 KFT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.  
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO  
40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO  
9600-11000 FT AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 39 TO  
48 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........62 50 38 26 14 17 20 23 26  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............64 67 70 74 77 80 82 82 81  
RH..............70 63 49 35 28 22 18 16 17  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..14 15 17 21 22 23 24 23 21  
20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 30 30 35 35 40 35 35  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.4 3.8 5.3 6.8 8.2 9.6 11 11  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.31 31 35 39 44 46 48 48 47  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.  
MAX HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 30 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......10700-10800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-700 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 35 TO 44 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 22 TO  
29 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........29 32 30 28 25 23 21 18 16 14 12 10  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............79 76 73 70 67 64 63 61 59 57 54 52  
RH..............19 22 25 29 33 37 39 42 47 51 59 63  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W W W W W NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..20 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.30 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...11 11 7.3 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W W W W W W W NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.44 40 35 29 25 24 25 26 26 25 24 22  
HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-5300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 23 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........8 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............50 50 51 53 56 59 62 65 68 70 71 72  
RH..............66 66 66 64 59 53 48 43 39 35 34 33  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 9 10 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 20 15 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 17 18 22 23 22 20 17 17 17 17 16  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5  
 

 
FORECASTER...STALLEY  
REQUESTED BY...JERRY ANDERSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1704449.8/FWD  
.EMAIL JERRYANDERSON@FS.FED.US  
 
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