430  
FNUS74 KMAF 282213 CCA  
FWSMAF  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR NESTER/BALL/BUCK...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
513 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1700 MDT ON MARCH 28.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, WITH  
ONLY FAIR NOCTURNAL RECOVERY AS RHS REACH 30-35% AT THE PROPOSED  
BURN AREA. 20FT WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASING  
TO AROUND 20 MPH BY 1100-1200 MDT, WITH INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS  
TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RHS DROP BELOW 15%  
BY 1000-1100 MDT, BOTTOMING OUT AT 9%. RFTIS RANGE FROM 4-6 IN  
THE VICINITY OF THE PROPOSED BURN AREA, AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS  
AND CRITICAL RHS, A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY  
EVENING. WINDS FRIDAY EVENING REMAIN WESTERLY, BUT BECOME LIGHTER  
AFTER SUNSET.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MIN HUMIDITY........9 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 21  
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 26 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 31 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (93900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (171700  
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 AM 8 AM 11 AM 2 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............45 50 72 76  
RH..............32 29 12 10  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 17 21  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 22 26  
MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 6600 8600  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 30 30  
HAINES INDEX....4 5 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 4 172 223  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR EXNT EXNT  
 

 
FORECASTER...PHILLIPSON  
REQUESTED BY...DOMINIC BELL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2408818.0/MAF  
.DELDT 03/28/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL DLBELL@BLM.GOV  
 
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