673  
FNUS74 KMAF 232111  
FWSMAF  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR KELLAR...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
411 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1600 MDT ON MAY 23.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS  
AND WILL PRODUCE STRONG, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING STRIKES, BUT ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT,  
RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE EXCELLENT, WHILE MINIMUM RHS THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 35%. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY, THEN MOSTLY CLEAR LATE  
(25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 0100, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MAX HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 11 MPH.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......9900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 10 10 10  
LAL.............3 3 3 1 1 1  
TEMP............71 66 62 61 62 61  
RH..............41 50 60 67 65 70  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S E SE SE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 7 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....9900 4000 200 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S SE E E NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 14 12 24 20 14  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 5  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300, THEN 1-8 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10900-11100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING,  
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 20 20  
LAL.............1 1 2 2  
TEMP............60 71 82 76  
RH..............72 53 38 40  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD.. 5 5 6 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 1700 4400 10000  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE SE S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 3 6 9  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.  
MAX HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......10200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST  
AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............74 71 66 66  
RH..............37 41 52 54  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE E SE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..11 13 9 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....10200 2100 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SE NE NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 18 17 15  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4  
 

 
FORECASTER...LYSTER  
REQUESTED BY...BRYCE DOWDY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1810515.1/MAF  
.DELDT 05/23/18  
 
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