609  
FXUS64 KAMA 280903  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
403 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVER  
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING THIS  
MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS  
LOW WILL HELP TO SPARK SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
PANHANDLES AS EARLY AS 6 AM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS WE COULD SEE  
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A GUYMON TO  
AMARILLO LINE AROUND 9AM. WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE  
FAIRLY LIMITED THIS MORNING, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60KT COULD BE  
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. THESE STORMS ARE  
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS THE  
UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLES OVER THE COURSE OF THE  
DAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW TO  
BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THIS, AS  
WELL AS MORNING CONVECTION, WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WARM FRONT  
FURTHER SOUTH THAT PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THE RESULT IS THAT THE WORST  
OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A WINDOW FOR  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS MU CAPE  
INCREASES TO 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS  
PANHANDLE. THESE WOULD BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS AND WOULD  
PRESENT A HAIL THREAT. HI-RES CAMS FOR THE EVENING HOURS SHOW THE  
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR ORIENTATION.  
THIS WOULD KEEP THE RISK FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST POSSIBLE.  
 
AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING WILL  
BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA TO BRING OUR SEVERE RISK TO AN END.  
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE FAR TO WEAK TO WARRANT  
ANY SEVERE RISK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AS OUR  
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. THERE IS A CHANCE  
ON FRIDAY THAT WE COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR  
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT THIS THREAT COULD EASILY BE  
DIMINISHED BY WETTING RAINS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.  
 
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DIVE  
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WHILE THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL  
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS, EACH MODEL SHOWS PRECIP  
GETTING INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. SHOULD THE  
SOUTHERN OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY, IT WOULD MEAN A BETTER COVERAGE  
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF RIGHT NOW, ANY STORMS THAT DO  
FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 60 41 58 36 66 / 80 50 50 20 5  
BEAVER OK 54 44 58 36 62 / 90 80 80 50 10  
BOISE CITY OK 52 36 46 32 64 / 70 80 80 50 5  
BORGER TX 58 44 58 38 67 / 80 60 60 30 5  
BOYS RANCH TX 64 40 56 35 69 / 60 50 60 20 0  
CANYON TX 65 40 60 36 68 / 70 40 50 20 0  
CLARENDON TX 60 45 66 38 67 / 90 50 40 20 0  
DALHART TX 60 38 49 32 66 / 60 60 70 30 0  
GUYMON OK 53 40 50 34 64 / 90 80 80 50 5  
HEREFORD TX 71 39 59 35 69 / 60 40 50 20 0  
LIPSCOMB TX 55 48 65 39 63 / 90 70 60 40 5  
PAMPA TX 57 44 60 36 63 / 90 50 50 30 5  
SHAMROCK TX 60 47 69 40 65 / 90 60 40 20 5  
WELLINGTON TX 63 48 71 41 67 / 90 50 30 20 5  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
3/14  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page