956  
FXUS64 KAMA 232328  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
628 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AT  
NORTHERN TERMINALS.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE DHT VICINITY FOR  
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, MID- AND  
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH  
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.  
 
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO NORTH AT ALL  
TERMINALS AS IT PASSES.  
 
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AT DHT, WHERE GUSTS  
AROUND 35 KT WILL DEVELOP AROUND 14Z. STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AROUND  
2500 FEET MAY THICKEN ENOUGH TO CREATE AN MVFR CEILING.  
 
FOR GUY, SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 12Z  
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH PASSAGE AROUND 17Z. POST-FRONTAL  
SURFACE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED WITH STRATOCUMULUS LAYER  
AROUND 3500 FEET, WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR  
CEILINGS AFTER 18Z.  
 
AT AMA, FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 17Z, WITH SURFACE WINDS IN  
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE, AND MID-LEVEL OVERCAST LAYER TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE VFR RANGE.  
 
COCKRELL  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 441 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OFF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN NM AND  
MAY MAKE WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS. DON'T EXPECT THAT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SURVIVE AFTER  
MUCH AFTER SUNSET, IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER THAT LONG.  
 
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY  
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS THE SOME MODELS  
SUGGEST A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH THE HEATING OF THE  
DAY. POSSIBLE THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PANHANDLES IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THEN PUSH SOUTH BY THE  
EVENING. THERE IS A PRETTY STOUT CAP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PANHANDLES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THERE MAY BE  
SOME FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO GET STORMS GOING NEAR OUR  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE MID AFTERNOON  
TOMORROW, SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THAT ENERGY, BUT THE CAM'S  
DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING AS OF NOW FOR THIS AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION  
THAT'S BEING GENERATED IS POST FRONTAL. THUSLY WILL BE A COLD  
RAIN, WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF THUNDER, GIVEN A FAIRLY STABLE  
SOUNDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN,  
THE EAST IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS.  
 
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL  
BE BREEZY, MIGHT EVEN BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL, BUT STILL NOT  
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE. WILL ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE A  
CLOSER LOOK AND SEE IF HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED.  
 
MOST OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOL, CLOUDY, AND IN THE 60S FOR THE  
PANHANDLES. WE START TO MOVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND THUS, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A RISE,  
WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER WEAK  
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CLIP THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY, THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY, BUT NOT  
BY MUCH AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY  
EVENING. STILL OVERALL HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER  
70S.  
 
MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT FROM HERE, AND MAKE FOR A  
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GFS TRENDING  
TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN MORE RECENT RUNS, HAVE HEDGED TOWARD A  
DRIER WEEKEND, SINCE THAT IS WHAT THE EC HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH.  
WILL NOTE, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST  
PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY.  
 
MODELS DO HINT AND SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
SO STAY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE  
WEEKEND TO SEE WHAT MIGHT BE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK.  
 
WEBER  
 
AVIATION...18Z TAFS...  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE  
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR PERHAPS SOME DISTANT THUNDER IN THE  
KDHT VICINITY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK/SHORT LIVED STORM OR TWO  
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON MESA. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT  
ARRIVES TOMORROW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SWITCH TO THE  
NORTH A KDHT FIRST, FOLLOWED BY KGUY AND KAMA TOWARDS THE END OF  
THIS TAF CYCLE. THE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30  
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS MID  
LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE.  
 
WARD  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 48 66 40 61 41 / 5 20 60 30 5  
BEAVER OK 47 60 40 61 40 / 10 50 60 20 5  
BOISE CITY OK 43 51 36 61 40 / 20 10 30 10 5  
BORGER TX 50 65 41 63 43 / 10 30 60 30 5  
BOYS RANCH TX 47 63 41 64 41 / 10 10 40 20 5  
CANYON TX 47 68 40 61 41 / 5 20 50 30 5  
CLARENDON TX 48 71 42 63 41 / 5 20 80 40 5  
DALHART TX 45 57 38 62 40 / 20 10 30 10 5  
GUYMON OK 45 54 39 62 40 / 20 50 50 20 5  
HEREFORD TX 47 68 40 62 41 / 5 10 40 20 5  
LIPSCOMB TX 48 67 42 62 41 / 10 50 80 40 5  
PAMPA TX 48 65 39 61 41 / 5 40 80 40 5  
SHAMROCK TX 49 71 44 62 42 / 5 30 80 50 5  
WELLINGTON TX 49 74 46 64 42 / 5 20 80 50 5  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
03/36  
 
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