030  
FXUS64 KAMA 201621 AAB  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1121 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT DHT DUE TO SMOKE MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE  
WESTERN U.S. FIRES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
AFTERNOON. "HAZY" CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT GUY AND AMA, BUT  
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY AT 6 MILES OR GREATER FOR MOST OF THE  
TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND  
THEN THEY WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018/  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
WINDS WILL BE TURNING FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY AFTER 01-03Z. GUY  
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25KTS DURING THE DAY.  
 
BEAT  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
BENIGN WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR  
TEMPORARILY INVADES THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW  
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL  
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES WILL COMMENCE ON  
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH  
SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH STEERING FLOW  
WEST TO EAST. THIS FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING SHOWERS AND  
TSTORMS EASTWARD FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INTRODUCED SLGT CHC  
POPS FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
CONSIDERING THE PROGGED MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW, THERE  
WILL BE A RATHER TIGHT POP GRADIENT WITH THE OK PANHANDLE THE MOST  
LIKELY TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION WHILE THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS  
PANHANDLE WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITY. LIKELY POPS WERE  
PLACED IN THE OK PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF  
VALUES DECREASING SOUTHWARD TO NON MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE  
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL  
TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND  
HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS EXPECTED  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH OVERALL HIGHEST POPS ACROSS  
THE OK PANHANDLE, DECREASING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD TO NON MENTIONABLE  
VALUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AGAIN, SOME STORMS  
MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND  
HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE  
STRONGEST, SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING  
THREAT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE  
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND WERE ACCEPTED.  
 
IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND  
TSTMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN HALF OF  
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
EXPANDS AND PUSHES THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED WEST TO NEW MEXICO AND  
ARIZONA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS  
IDEA. HAVE INCORPORATED SLGT CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE OK  
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, THEN  
NON MENTIONABLE VALUES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BASED ON THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO ABOVE  
NORMAL VALUES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE.  
 
ANDRADE  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
15/24  
 
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