809
FXUS64 KAMA 210531 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1131 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
UPDATE
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
JOHNSON
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BUT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AROUND MIDDAY DUE TO
THE DEEPENING LEE TROF. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 924 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH TX MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE
LEE TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HELP TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST
AND NORTH...WITH MID 30S EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST. MIN TEMPS MAY BE
REACHED A BIT EARLY THAN CLIMO TONIGHT GIVEN THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING A
LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS IN MANY AREAS.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
HAS RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS MEANS CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNRISE...INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS BY
MIDDAY AS THE LEE TROF INTENSIFIES. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 30
KTS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN REMAINS DRY FOR THE SEVEN DAYS...ONLY WITH A COUPLE OF
DRY COLD FRONTS TO SPEAK OF.
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH TOMORROW WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SERVE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE CWA. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN STORE
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR
HIGH TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
SHORT TERM.
12Z GFS/EUROPEAN ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWLY MOVES UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NATION/S MID SECTION. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD STILL KEEP
THE PANHANDLES DRY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCARCE ACROSS OUR AREA.
A FRONT OR TWO STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE ON
MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
TAB
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TAB
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
24/08
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