491
FXUS64 KAMA 130803
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
303 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2008
DISCUSSION
GIVEN THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED PREVIOUS SHIFT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND POPS WILL NEED TO BE KEPT HIGH...WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH CHANGES THIS MORNING. TWEAKED QPF...TEMPS...AND
WINDS...OTHERWISE LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT. COLD FRONT PUSHING
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH KGUY AND KDHT. FROPA IN KAMA IS FORECAST TO BE
SOMETIME AROUND 10Z TO 11Z THIS MORNING. WITH ALL OF THE RECENT
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
WEEK WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AS THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE UPWARDS OF 0.5 INCHES TO
1.50 INCHES OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST. PWATS FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL AS HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS IT WAS
THIS PAST WEEKEND.
UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 60S INTO THE 40S FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING. FEEL TEMPS
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...PRECIP CHANCES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OVER THE PANHANDLES AND PLAINS STATES
THIS WEEKEND.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LITTLE TO NONE AS THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
PERSISTS FOR THIS FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...20 FOOT WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH WITH
MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 55 42 48 43 64 / 60 70 70 50 5
BEAVER OK 53 43 45 41 65 / 70 70 80 50 5
BOISE CITY OK 46 38 45 38 65 / 60 60 70 30 5
BORGER TX 55 44 47 45 65 / 60 70 80 50 5
BOYS RANCH TX 52 41 48 41 65 / 60 60 70 40 5
CANYON TX 57 42 49 42 64 / 60 70 70 50 5
CLARENDON TX 60 46 51 46 66 / 70 70 70 50 5
DALHART TX 48 39 48 39 66 / 60 60 80 30 5
GUYMON OK 50 41 47 41 68 / 70 60 80 40 5
HEREFORD TX 57 41 50 41 66 / 60 60 70 40 5
LIPSCOMB TX 58 43 50 42 66 / 70 70 80 50 5
PAMPA TX 56 43 47 45 65 / 70 70 70 50 5
SHAMROCK TX 61 47 53 47 67 / 70 70 60 50 5
WELLINGTON TX 66 47 56 48 67 / 70 70 60 50 5
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.
16/11
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