422  
FXUS64 KAMA 191125  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
525 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z OVER  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH DIRECT IMPACTS  
EXPECTED AT AMA AND GUY. GREAT VARIABILITY IN VISIBILITY HAS  
BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, SO CERTAINTY IN TIMING OF  
NEAR-TERM CHANGES IS LOW. EXPECT THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL RISE TO  
VFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS EASTERLY.  
 
LOW CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
CONFINED TO EASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA, WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF ALL TERMINALS. DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR  
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG  
EXPECTED DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST.  
 
COCKRELL  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
ADVECTION FOG IS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN  
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO RISE. THE FOG LOOKS TO  
STICK AROUND THROUGH MID-MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE PANHANDLES, WHEN WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE  
SOUTH AND DECREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF UPSLOPE FLOW.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED IN SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS  
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS. HI-RES  
CAMS INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON IS SLIM. THE EASTERN PANHANDLES STILL LOOK TO HAVE THE  
BEST CHANCE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO CUT OFF THE WESTERN EXTENT OF  
THE LIKELY AREA. SPC HAS NOW DROPPED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM THE  
PANHANDLES BECAUSE OF THIS; LEAVING THE AREA IN GENERAL  
THUNDERSTORM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK ANEMIC IN THE INSTABILITY  
DEPARTMENT. THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO EVEN BECOME  
MARGINALLY SEVERE IS LOOKING MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. HAVE  
LOWERED POPS AND CUT BACK ON THE EXTENT BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED  
IF MORE TRIMMING HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE HI-RES MODELS GET  
CLOSER.  
 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AS IT CROSSES THE AREA, THE REGION  
WILL BE PLACED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE  
AND DOWNSLOPING WILL AID IN BRINGING SURFACE TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S  
AND 80S THROUGH MID-WEEK. ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES  
THE AREA AND BRINGS GUSTY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED  
WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS. A WIND ADVISORY ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS  
MAY STAY STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG  
COLD FRONT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF  
THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
 
BEAT  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT THROUGH MOST OF  
THE WEEK. THE CONCERN WILL THUS FALL TO DAYS THAT HAVE THE CHANCE  
FOR WINDS TO INCREASE. MONDAY LOOKS TO HAVE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS. THE BIGGEST DAY FOR CONCERN  
IS THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY AND RH VALUES IN SOME AREAS MAY  
FALL TO AROUND 12 PERCENT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THAT DAY.  
MOST OF THE PANHANDLES COULD BE IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH THE  
REMAINING AREAS IN ELEVATED. WINDS COULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE  
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  
 
BEAT  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 66 41 67 36 74 / 10 5 0 0 0  
BEAVER OK 71 45 71 34 76 / 10 20 0 0 0  
BOISE CITY OK 65 39 66 34 75 / 5 0 0 0 0  
BORGER TX 70 44 70 38 76 / 20 10 0 0 0  
BOYS RANCH TX 68 40 69 34 76 / 5 0 0 0 0  
CANYON TX 67 40 68 36 75 / 10 0 0 0 0  
CLARENDON TX 69 45 70 38 75 / 20 10 0 0 0  
DALHART TX 67 37 68 32 74 / 5 0 0 0 0  
GUYMON OK 70 41 69 35 75 / 10 10 0 0 0  
HEREFORD TX 66 38 68 36 74 / 5 0 0 0 0  
LIPSCOMB TX 71 46 72 35 76 / 20 20 0 0 0  
PAMPA TX 67 43 68 37 74 / 20 10 0 0 0  
SHAMROCK TX 68 46 72 37 75 / 30 30 0 0 0  
WELLINGTON TX 69 47 73 38 76 / 30 30 0 0 0  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
03/16  
 
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