641  
FXUS64 KAMA 271133  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY FAVOR A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION, AND START GUSTING NEAR  
20 TO 28KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AND REMAIN MOSTLY  
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
ELSENHEIMER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY. HEATING BENEATH COOLING  
MID LEVELS SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION BY  
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT DEEP  
DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER MAY DEVELOP SINCE POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS MODEST  
AT BEST. STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BY  
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING AND FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH. THIS  
WILL FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE  
PANHANDLES. WEAK FORCING IN A MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD  
RESULT IN CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK  
INITIALLY BUT MAY STRENGTHEN AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS  
INCREASE LATE. ALOFT WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT SO STORM  
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. MODELS SUGGEST  
COLD POOL DRIVEN COMPLEX MAY FORM LATER IN THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO  
THE EVENING POSSIBLY LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL  
FLOODING.  
 
WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEEK WITH A TENDENCY  
FOR GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE  
WESTERN TROUGH WILL PASS FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY AND  
BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF  
THE WEEK. LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WERE RETAINED FOR THURSDAY  
BECAUSE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE TROUGH EAST. ALSO, SEASONAL  
UPTICK IN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH MAY CAUSE CONVECTION TO ENTER THE FAR  
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
BRB  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
18/17  
 
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