581
FXUS64 KAMA 041936
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
236 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MOVES THIS WAY. PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BROUGHT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BETWEEN THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO NOW WILL MOVE THIS WAY LATER TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BEST.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR WILL HELP MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS DIRECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN GET OVER THE AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE NOT GONE TOO WILD ON THE POPS.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WAY.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OUT ONTO THE PLAINS AS BEFORE. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF KEEPING THE HIGH FURTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN WE MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING POPS FURTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST.
WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE WARM BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOES NOT BUILD AS STRONGLY
INTO THE PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED BY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 67 80 66 85 64 / 60 30 30 20 20
BEAVER OK 66 87 64 91 66 / 30 20 30 10 20
BOISE CITY OK 63 84 64 89 63 / 70 40 50 20 20
BORGER TX 70 88 68 88 67 / 40 30 40 10 20
BOYS RANCH TX 68 84 67 91 67 / 50 30 40 20 20
CANYON TX 66 78 66 87 65 / 60 30 30 20 20
CLARENDON TX 69 85 67 84 64 / 60 30 30 10 20
DALHART TX 65 83 64 89 63 / 60 30 40 20 20
GUYMON OK 66 85 66 90 66 / 30 20 40 20 20
HEREFORD TX 65 78 65 87 65 / 60 30 30 20 20
LIPSCOMB TX 67 90 64 87 65 / 30 20 30 10 20
PAMPA TX 68 89 67 84 64 / 40 20 30 10 20
SHAMROCK TX 70 93 66 88 64 / 50 20 30 5 20
WELLINGTON TX 72 92 68 88 65 / 60 20 20 5 20
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
16/15
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