521
FXUS64 KAMA 091129 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
529 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
AVIATION
VFR CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TDA. DRIER DWPTS MOVING
INTO FCST AREA SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MRNG. SFC WINDS
BECOME LIGHT SLY BY LATE AFTN. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVE AND TNGT OVER NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA...WITH VFR FCST
CONTINUING FOR KAMA TERMINAL.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 349 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING AROUND PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. SURFACE
OBS INDICATE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE AIR TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW SNOW FLAKES...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION FROM THESE
FLURRIES. DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE PANHANDLES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE
TEENS. SO THINKING THE CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING IS
ON TRACK AND LIKEWISE FELT PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY
LOOKED JUST FINE. GUIDANCE THEN KEEPS DEW POINTS IN THE 15 TO 25
DEGREE RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH TRENDED VERY WELL WITH
PREVIOUS MORNING LOW TEMP FORECAST. SO REALLY MADE VERY FEW CHANGES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY THOUGH.
00Z MODEL RUNS...AND NOW THE 06Z NAM...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE EURO AND UKMET DO SUGGEST
PRECIP MAY DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
IS FOR A LIMITED SHOT AT PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES. SO FOCUSED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A SLIGHT WARM LAYER
NEAR THE GROUND WHICH COULD EITHER MEAN A COLD RAIN EVENT...OR
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIP. KEPT SNOW MENTIONED IN THE MORNING ON
THURSDAY...BUT THEN INSERTED A RAIN OR SNOW MIX ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED SNOW TOTALS AS A RESULT TO BELOW ONE INCH
AREA WIDE. MODELS WANTED TO BRING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPS AS WELL...BUT
THOUGHT THE CLOUD COVER OR LIGHT PRECIP WOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS AROUND
40 DEGREES IF NOT SLIGHTLY LOWER.
EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO BE ENDING BY 00Z...WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC
GIVEN THE SLOWING TREND IN THE MODELS. ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND WRF WHICH
ARE RUNNING 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS/EURO/UKMET. WITH THESE
SLOWER SOLUTIONS IN PLACE...FELT FRIDAY WOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE
BEFORE THE BETTER WARMING POTENTIAL TAKES PLACE SATURDAY. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING A WAVE APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY...BUT 00Z SOLUTIONS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE PANHANDLES. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE
BANKING MORE ON THE FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE
ANY PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SO
SOME UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT YET TO UP
POPS INTO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE THOUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A LOW
CLOUD DAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES BEING RUNG OUT OF THE COLD AIR THAN
ANYTHING. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN US WITH PRIMARILY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PANHANDLES.
FIRE WEATHER...
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND COOL TO COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT
AND THUS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 32 20 39 25 39 / 5 0 5 10 30
BEAVER OK 26 17 34 25 41 / 5 0 5 5 10
BOISE CITY OK 27 17 38 23 39 / 5 0 5 5 10
BORGER TX 29 21 39 26 42 / 5 0 5 5 20
BOYS RANCH TX 31 23 41 26 39 / 5 0 5 10 20
CANYON TX 34 20 40 26 39 / 5 0 5 10 30
CLARENDON TX 34 21 39 28 40 / 5 0 5 10 30
DALHART TX 29 18 37 23 43 / 5 0 5 10 10
GUYMON OK 27 19 38 25 41 / 5 0 5 5 10
HEREFORD TX 35 21 41 27 38 / 5 0 5 10 30
LIPSCOMB TX 30 15 37 28 42 / 5 0 5 5 10
PAMPA TX 28 21 39 26 39 / 5 0 5 5 20
SHAMROCK TX 34 19 39 27 41 / 5 0 5 5 20
WELLINGTON TX 36 20 40 27 42 / 5 0 5 10 30
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
03/14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page