676  
FXUS64 KAMA 282357  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
657 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAFS - VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL  
VARY AROUND EAST WITH SPEEDS AT OR LESS THAN 10KTS OVERNIGHT. BY  
THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15KTS,  
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE AT KDHT AND KGUY.  
 
ELSENHEIMER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE  
OHIO VALLEY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A  
WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED SURFACE WINDS  
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE  
TO SAG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL BRING SLIGHTLY  
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS  
MOSTLY IN THE 70S THEN SLOWLY BACK INTO THE 80S INTO THE WEEKEND.  
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WILL KEEP THE  
FORECAST DRY AT LEAST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN WEAK  
RETURN FLOW SETS UP BRINGING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS  
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SPARK A FEW  
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE  
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  
 
LONG TERM...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE LARGE UPPER  
TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF  
NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE DROPPED THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE JET  
FURTHER SOUTH WITH BETTER DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY  
STORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LOOK TO  
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL  
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF TROUGH WITH EURO A BIT  
LESS PROGRESSIVE AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED COMPARED TO THE GFS  
LEADING TO MORE PRECIP FURTHER WEST. THE EURO ALSO SHOWS A  
STRONGER MID- LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS PANHANDLES WHICH SUGGEST  
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS COMPARED TO GFS. DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE  
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
18/14  
 
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