162  
FXUS64 KAMA 310546  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1246 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR 06Z TAFS...SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG WITH SHOWERS IN THE  
VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS PERIOD WILL LEAD TO  
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG  
WITH GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE A VERY LIGHT WINDS DURING THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS. LATE MORNING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT SOME BUT MVFR  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAY  
BREAK...SO KEPT PREVALENT SHOWERS AT KAMA AND KDHT WITH VICINITY  
SHOWERS FOR KDHT. PUT IN PROB30 FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS  
AIRMASS DOES BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER DURING THAT TIME.  
 
WARD  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/  
 
UPDATE...  
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASE IN PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AND  
FOR AREAS OF SHRA TO DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA. THIS IS  
PARTLY TO DO WITH AMOUNT THE AREA WAS WORKED OVER TODAY AND DIVERGENT  
FLOW AT THE SFC. CAMS ARE NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP  
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL. BASED ON THIS, DID  
QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS TO SCT MOST AREAS WITH LIKELY CONFINED  
TO NE WHERE RAIN IS ONGOING. ALSO WARMED LOWS A TAD CLOSER TO RAW  
MODEL BLEND WHICH ALSO IS CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE. EXPECT SHRA WILL  
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH MINIMAL HEATING.  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO  
AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO  
BRING RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE,  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER  
THE REGION.  
 
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FINALLY GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF  
THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD  
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST AS THE UPPER HIGH  
SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES AND A STRONGER  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS GREAT BEYOND THURSDAY GIVEN THE DRIER  
ATMOSPHERE.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE  
EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AROUND  
NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND AND FOR LABOR DAY. SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE FOR  
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION  
WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S.  
 
HYDROLOGY...  
WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE  
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE CREEKS AND RIVERS,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE, HAVE SEEN SOME RISES.  
IN FACT, THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE HAS  
RISEN OVER A HALF OF FOOT IN JUST 15 MINUTES. THE RIVER SHOULD STAY  
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN, BUT IF MORE  
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS NEAR THE GAGE SITE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARMSTRONG  
COUNTY IT COULD PUSH THE RIVER TO AROUND FLOOD STAGE.  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...  
HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...  
ROBERTS...WHEELER.  
 
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  
BEAVER...TEXAS.  
 

 
 

 
 
7/14  
 
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