228  
FXUS64 KAMA 231120  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
520 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS  
TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW AND SW GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z TUESDAY, WINDS WILL  
DIMINISH AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN TOWARD THE VERY  
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 15 KTS OUT OF THE SW AS A COLD FRONT  
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH  
CLOUDS, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
MECCARIELLO  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 313 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST BY  
LATE TODAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN  
STATES AND GREAT BASIN REGION TODAY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES  
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING  
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE TUESDAY AND THE MIDWEST  
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO  
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW  
MEXICO STATE LINE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS  
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  
 
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK EAST  
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AS A STRONG  
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT  
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY  
LATE TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A REINFORCING  
SHOT OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. A  
MODERATING TREND POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHAPING UP FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE WESTERN...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE  
TODAY. DESPITE THE RECENT PRECIPITATION/RAINFALL...1-HOUR FUELS AS  
OF SUNDAY HAVE NOW FALLEN TO AROUND 5 TO 6 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY  
ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALSO...THE FIRE  
DANGER RATING HAS RISEN INTO THE MODERATE TO HIGH CATEGORY AS OF  
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE A CONTINUED INCREASE TODAY  
AND TUESDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES  
WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20 FOOT WINDS TO  
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH BY EARLY  
THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT  
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE TODAY.  
 
TUESDAY...A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS  
KANSAS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE  
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...A PRE-  
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS  
THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPING 20 FOOT WEST WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45  
MPH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO  
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
PANHANDLES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE  
AGAIN TUESDAY ACROSS A MUCH BROADER AREA OF THE PANHANDLES.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
29/11  
 
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