525  
FXUS64 KAMA 252341  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY  
POSE A NEAR-TERM THREAT AT GUY, WITH DHT BEING THREATENED  
SLIGHTLY LATER. LESS CERTAINTY FOR TIMING FOR AMA, BUT  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE, PROBABLY  
LASTING MUCH OF THE MORNING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO BE FORTHCOMING  
DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.  
 
COCKRELL  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 410 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
NOT MUCH FOR CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE FORECAST IS  
STILL PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN  
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS IN THE WEST  
TODAY AND COOLER ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA DUE TO CLOUDS  
HANGING ON LONGER THERE. THE BREAK IN CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE  
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS INCREASING THE INSTABILITY TODAY. CAMS  
ARE STILL DISAGREEING SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. FEEL  
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE  
MAJORITY OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY  
AND BETTER SHEAR TODAY, STORMS MAY BECOME STRONGER THAN WHAT WE  
SAW YESTERDAY; SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA  
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE  
PRIMARY THREATS. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING INITIATION IN SHERMAN AND  
MOORE AND EXPECT MORE STORMS TO FIRE UP WITHIN THE AREA OR MOVE IN  
FROM THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW MEXICO.  
 
MONDAY WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SOME OF THE CLOUD  
COVER LINGERING IN THE MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A BREAK OUT OF  
CLOUDS AND THEN STORMS AGAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.  
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DEPENDING ON HOW  
MUCH CLOUDS BREAK OUT, ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY TO BE  
GENERATED. TUESDAY LOOKS TO SEE A WARM UP AS WINDS TURN MORE  
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPING WINDS.  
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THIS  
WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THUS THE FINAL  
DAY FOR STORM CHANCES TO COME IN FROM THE MOUNTAINS. MID WEEK WILL  
SEE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN MORE DOWNSLOPING AND WARMER TEMPS. THE END  
OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UP IN THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO A RETURN OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
BEAT  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 60 82 61 87 67 / 60 40 30 10 10  
BEAVER OK 60 86 63 90 71 / 40 20 30 10 20  
BOISE CITY OK 59 82 60 87 66 / 60 20 20 10 20  
BORGER TX 63 86 64 89 71 / 60 30 20 10 20  
BOYS RANCH TX 61 86 61 89 68 / 70 40 30 10 10  
CANYON TX 60 83 61 87 67 / 60 40 30 10 10  
CLARENDON TX 62 82 62 86 68 / 50 40 30 10 10  
DALHART TX 60 86 61 87 65 / 70 30 20 10 20  
GUYMON OK 62 85 63 90 69 / 60 20 20 10 20  
HEREFORD TX 59 85 61 87 67 / 70 40 30 10 10  
LIPSCOMB TX 64 85 63 88 72 / 40 30 30 10 20  
PAMPA TX 62 84 61 86 68 / 50 30 20 10 20  
SHAMROCK TX 65 85 63 87 70 / 40 40 30 10 10  
WELLINGTON TX 67 85 64 88 71 / 40 40 30 10 10  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
03/14  
 
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