917  
FXUS64 KAMA 190616 AAB  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
116 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, THERE IS A MINOR THREAT OF TSTMS THURSDAY  
EVENING AT KDHT AND KAMA. HOWEVER, DECIDED TO OMIT MENTION OF  
THIS WEATHER ELEMENT DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND  
CORRESPONDING LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE  
THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
ANDRADE  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 615 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...  
GOOD FLYING WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE  
CIRRUS, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ON THURSDAY. NO OVERNIGHT  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED  
WITH NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER EASTERN NEW  
MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE WINDS GUSTING  
INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. UNTIL THEN, LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT  
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT  
24 HOURS.  
 
COCKRELL  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
ANOTHER PRETTY BENIGN FORECAST IS ON TAP WITH JUST A FEW SLIGHT  
CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT... WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN  
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS GUIDANCE  
HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY IN THOSE AREAS. IT'S GETTING KIND OF TOUGH  
TO HAVE LOWS IN THE 50S OUT THAT WAY ANYMORE, EVEN ON THE MORE  
"HUMID" NIGHTS. LEFT THE GOING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A  
STORM FOR THE SW TX PANHANDLE TOMORROW EVENING WITH A PASSING  
SHORTWAVE. SEEMS LIKE ALL SHORTWAVES ARE PRODUCING PRECIP LATELY, SO  
WHY NOT THIS ONE, RIGHT? WE COULD MAYBE GET A RUMBLE OR TWO OF  
THUNDER, BUT THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED ON  
FRIDAY, AND A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE SHRTWV PATTERN COULD PRODUCE A  
STORM OR TWO ALONG A SFC TROUGH IN THE TX PH FRI AFTERNOON/EVE.  
HOWEVER, A PRETTY GOOD INVERSION CENTERED JUST ABOVE H8 WILL  
PROBABLY KEEP MOST CONVECTION CAPPED IN SPITE OF MAYBE UPWARDS OF  
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.  
 
MEAGER STORM CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT, BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT POSITIVELY TILTED SHRTWV PASSES  
SATURDAY WITH MORE DYNAMICS AND BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE FAR  
SOUTHEAST TX PH. ANY THREAT OF STORMS EARLY TO MID SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON IN THE SE TX PH SHOULD QUICKLY PASS THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT  
PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA. HEDGED THE TIMING A BIT, BUT FOR THE MOST  
PART THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE OK PH IN THE MORNING SOMETIME AND  
CLEAR OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING. FOUND THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN  
THE GUIDANCE AND USED THOSE, THOUGH THIS FRONT SHOULDN'T BLOW AS  
HARD AS THE ONE ALMOST EXACTLY ONE WEEK PRIOR TO IT LAST SATURDAY.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY SFC  
WINDS, ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO PASS LATE  
MON OR MON NIGHT, THOUGH TEMPS DON'T LOOK TO BE AFFECTED MUCH.  
 
EVEN WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONTS, TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE ABOVE  
NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH SUNDAY LIKELY BEING THE  
"COOLEST" DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND OUR AVERAGE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR  
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  
 
SIMPSON  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page