710  
FXUS64 KBRO 272004  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
304 PM CDT THU APR 27 2017  
 
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT):BROAD 500MB TROUGH  
ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN  
UNITED STATES FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS  
WILL ALLOW THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY  
THIS AFTERNOON TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST WINDS  
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE  
TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL TX FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE  
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE  
FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI  
AFTERNOON. WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TX  
COAST FRIDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT...NO RAIN CHANCES ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  
 
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY):ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH  
TEXAS ON SATURDAY AS FLOW AT 750 TO 850 MB REMAINS OUT OF THE  
WEST SOUTHWEST AND 850 MB TEMPS STILL LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE 23 TO  
27C RANGE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING HOT AND DRY AIR THANKS TO  
DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE SIERRA MADRE.  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PUSH WELL PAST THE 100 DEGREE MARK ONCE  
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, NUDGING TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR.  
THINK THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE  
LOWER VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS REDEVELOP BY  
LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS  
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY AND AND ALONG THE COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE  
CONTINUE SHOW WINDS STAYING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH  
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 24 KNOTS AT BRO AND HRL AND 25 KNOTS AT PIL.  
 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY LIFTS  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PUSHING A COLD FRONT  
SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER  
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PUSH  
THROUGH THE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE, BRINGING A NOTICEABLY  
COOLER DAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES  
LOWER THAN SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE POOLING WITH  
THE FRONT, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED, WITH A DEEP DRY  
LAYER ALOFT. THE LIFT FROM THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE MINIMAL  
MOISTURE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG  
THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE  
THE GREATEST), SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
AS DRY AIR MOVES IN ON MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS,  
DROPPING RH VALUES INTO THE 12 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN REMAIN THE WESTERN  
COUNTIES, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR THAT LINE TO SHIFT  
EASTWARD. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK AS  
SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS ONLY TEMPORARY WITH  
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WEEK AND  
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S BY TUESDAY.  
 
MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING  
THE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME, BRINGING OUR NEXT  
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
 
.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT): SEAS WERE NEAR 6 FEET WITH  
EAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE  
TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS  
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE  
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WILL WORD SCEC FOR THE FAR  
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE  
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL VEER TO  
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE  
NEEDED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY. STRONG  
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE  
EXTENDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE IMPROVING. STRONG  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET DUE TO INCREASED SWELLS.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR  
ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH BRIEFLY LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SUNDAY MORNING,  
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF THE  
FRONT, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE GOING INTO  
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SLIDES EAST, ALLOWING WINDS  
TO RELAX AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 95 80 92 / 10 10 10 10  
BROWNSVILLE 77 95 79 95 / 10 10 10 10  
HARLINGEN 74 96 78 99 / 10 10 10 10  
MCALLEN 75 101 78 101 / 10 10 10 0  
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 106 77 105 / 0 10 10 0  
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 89 80 85 / 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV  
 
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