006
FXUS64 KBRO 071937
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
DISCUSSION
CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY MIGRATED NORTH FM ADJ MEX OVR
CAMERON...HIDALGO...BROOKS...KENEDY AND WILLACY COUNTIES ATTM. KBRO
DOPPLER SHOWS SHRAS 75 MILES S OF BRO MVG WEST AT 20 MPH...WITH
ISOLATED SHRAS 130 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF POR MVG NORTH. GULF OF
MEXICO WX IS IN FLUX AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE FM CAMPECHE
AND THE OTHER T.S. IDA...CONVERGE TOWARD THE NRN GULF. AS OUR LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MVS NW TOWARD THE
RGV...SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY THRU EARLY
MONDAY AS BOTH SYSTEMS BLEND INTO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY. AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVR THE CENTRAL
BAJA WILL ARRIVE MONDAY...SHUNTING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED MSTR AND DYNAMICS TO LA/MS/FL WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL XPCTD
IN THAT REGION LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. OUR CONVECTION SHUD BEGIN
BY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY AS THE
INVERTED SFC TROF DRIVES NORTH INTO THE RGV. RESIDUAL -SHRAS XPCTD
EARLY MONDAY THRU MID AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROF DRAGS A WEAK CF
THRU THE REGION. BY LATE MONDAY THE TROF AXIS IS WELL EAST...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND SUNNY AND DRY WX TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEK. LITTLE CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S DURING THE DAY AND MORNING LOWS FROM 58 TO 62 DEG F FOR THE
WEEK. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL
MEXICO. IDA IS FCST TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE TIP OF
THE YUCATAN MONDAY AND REMAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS AND ENTERS AL/FL PNHNDL EARLY TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OF 10 FEET WILL ENTER OUR MARINE AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THE 12 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE
EAST AROUND 12 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 6
FT WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS. MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER TX
COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS
NWD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROF AND A SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME OVRNGT TNGT THRU SUNDAY. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD THRU THIS TIME WITH SCA CONDITIONS
PROBABLY FOR BOTH THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. THINK THE SCA CRITERIA SEAS WILL DEVELOP LATER TNGT OR
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT ON
SITUATION SO TRENDS CAN BE MONITORED BEFORE A DECISION ON THE SCA IS
MADE. TROPICAL STORM IDA CONTINUES TO SLIDE THRU THE CARRIBEAN SE OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. IDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AGITATED THRU THIS TIME
AS A RESULT OF IDA. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE BY LATE SUN INTO MON
WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT THRU WED
ACROSS THE LOWER TX GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THRU MIDWEEK WITH ELEVATED SEAS
PREVAILING. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
SITUATION WITH A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT. AN UPGRADE TO A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNDAY.
AVIATION
THE 3 LOCAL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTN WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. LLVL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THIS AFTN UNDERNEATH MID TO HIGHER LVL CLDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SE OFF THE GULF IN ASSOC WITH A SFC TROF. CLD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS THE TROF LIFTS NWD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE SUN NEAR COASTAL LOCALES. AT THIS POINT...ADDED VCSH TO THE
BRO AND HRL TAFS BEGINNING SUN MRNG. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. ATTM...RETAINED VFR
CONDITIONS THRU SUN MRNG. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE MVFR CIGS IF
SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 80 68 83 / 30 50 20 20
BROWNSVILLE 67 80 67 82 / 20 50 20 20
HARLINGEN 66 82 65 85 / 20 50 20 20
MCALLEN 66 83 66 88 / 10 40 20 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 61 82 63 87 / 10 30 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 80 66 84 / 30 50 30 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
58/54/VEGA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page