359
FXUS64 KBRO 020929
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
329 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2008
DISCUSSION
1027 HPA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. SHOULD STILL SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT YET BE IN PLACE.
BY TONIGHT HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 60S.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WILL KEEP SOUTH
WINDS STRONG. WINDS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SURFACES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
CREEP UP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE MARINE AREAS HOWEVER.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH WITH SOME INITIAL
REDUCTION IN RH. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST LATER ON
THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND WITH WEST FLOW ALOFT SOME
OVERRUNNING WILL DEVELOP. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE AS THE
FRONT STALLS...WITH GRAY OVERCAST AND SOME SPRINKLES INLAND.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE IN THE POST FRONT SCENARIO...
AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE
NORM NEAR THE RIVER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP
OFF AFTER SATURDAY AS THE NEARBY FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO EAST ON SUNDAY...FLUSHING OUT STALE AIR
BANKED UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM A BIT.
BY LATE SUNDAY AN ONSHORE FLOW OF SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
ESTABLISHED ONCE MORE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 754 PM CST MON DEC 1 2008/ EVEN WITH
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS TOMORROW...AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORY LIKELY THAT DAY FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE BRO CWFA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE IF
INDICATION HOLDS...OTHERWISE FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONE
FORECAST.
MARINE
THE 3 AM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 42020 INDICATED WINDS WERE
NORTHEAST AROUND 8 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 3 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 6
SECONDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MRNG HRS...RATHER
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES BY THIS AFTN ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST MDLS INDICATE THE RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH COULD BE PRODUCING SCEC CONDITIONS AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTN FOR THE NEAR AND FAR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. WINDS
ARE FCST TO REACH 20 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN WHILE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY START TO BUILD BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE USED FOR NOW IN THE CWF FOR THE NEAR AND
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TONIGHT AND THRU THE OVRNGT PD. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT THAT TIME AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU ALL OF WEDNESDAY.
WILL GET A BRIEF RESPITE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND LIKELY BRING MORE
SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. EXPECTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY TODAY. THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT THRU THE MRNG BUT
BECOME MODERATE THRU THIS AFTN. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX
AROUND THE BRO AND HRL AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THRU TODAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLDS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT 24 HRS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
TAF SITES AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TX THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 64 83 63 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNSVILLE 77 65 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 78 61 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 62 78 61 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
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