996  
FXUS64 KBRO 281722  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
1222 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
A DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS INFLUENCES FROM A HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW  
IN TOWN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE  
REGION. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH IN WINDS ON  
FRIDAY FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS, KEEPING EXPECTED WIND GUSTS (30-40  
MPH) JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. SAMPLED LOW LEVEL JET (850 MB)  
WINDS RANGE BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. WILL ALLOW FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO  
FURTHER EVALUATE FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT AN  
ADVISORY IS NEEDED. REGARDLESS, FRIDAY WILL STILL FEATURE BREEZY  
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-30 MPH GUSTING UP TO 40  
MPH.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S  
(COOLER ALONG/NEAR THE COAST). OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (WARMER ALONG/NEAR THE COAST).  
FINALLY, HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S  
(COOLER ALONG/NEAR THE COAST).  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PORTION OF THE TOTAL FORECAST CONTINUES  
TO BE WIND. GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOW  
PRESSURE OVER INLAND MEXICO TO CREATE AN ENHANCED PRESSURE  
GRADIENT, WITH THIS GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST ON  
MONDAY. AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY WILL POSSIBLY BE NEEDED ON  
THIS DAY FOR THE THREE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES (CAMERON,  
WILLACY, KENEDY).  
 
OTHERWISE, THE ONLY OTHER NOTABLE EVENT DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE  
THE MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. IN ADVANCE OF THE  
FRONT, WINDS DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE NEIGHBORING HIGHER TERRAIN OF  
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A HEAT SPIKE, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR MONDAY.  
 
FINALLY, WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST, THERE WILL  
LIKELY BE A MODERATE RISK TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE  
LOCAL BEACHES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE  
TAF LOCATIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE  
SCT-BKN CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FEET  
AFTER 14Z FRI. ALSO, SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE SAME TIMEFRAME AS THE INCREASE IN  
CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL BE ALL DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE  
GRADIENT AS PRESSURES FALL EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF THE  
NEXT STORM SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TODAY, LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD LIGHT  
TO MODERATE SEAS AND OVERALL FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS. TONIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE  
MODERATE WINDS WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL YIELD MODERATE SEAS AND MORE  
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE  
CAUTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO DURING A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER INLAND  
MEXICO. BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL  
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE  
CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TO BE NEEDED. FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING  
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BURST OF CAUTION OR  
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS/SEAS IN ITS WAKE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BROWNSVILLE 83 64 80 68 / 0 0 0 0  
HARLINGEN 85 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0  
MCALLEN 87 63 84 67 / 0 0 0 0  
RIO GRANDE CITY 87 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0  
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 73 69 / 0 0 0 0  
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA  
LONG TERM....66-TOMASELLI  
AVIATION...80-MB  
 
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