305  
FXUS64 KBRO 230005 AAA  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
705 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
BRINGING VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SEABREEZE  
CONVECTION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH EASTERLY  
WINDS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 420 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT): 500MB RIDGE ACROSS  
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE 500MB INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST  
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE A NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER  
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY WILL MOVE  
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY REDEVELOP INTO A  
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE  
HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
REMNANTS OF HARVEY. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS  
AFTERNOON AND THE 18Z BRO SOUNDING MEASURED 2.18 INCHES OF  
PRECIPITABLE WATER. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND SOME  
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA  
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE WED MORNING AND MOVE INLAND WED  
AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG  
TERM REMAINS LARGELY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT  
OF HARVEY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN-GEM CONTINUES TO TREND  
WITH ITS FORECAST TRACK TO MOVE OVER, VERY NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST  
OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THE RIO  
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE  
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A DEEP SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL  
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN  
CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH (50-70 PERCENT) THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE  
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-69C  
CORRIDOR. HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY IN  
STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS. NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE  
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED RIP  
CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AREA BEACHES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY.  
 
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT): SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET  
WITH EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST  
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THE REMNANTS OF  
HARVEY MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE  
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS HARVEY POSSIBLY REDEVELOPS  
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE FAR OFFSHORE  
WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS  
MORNING.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS  
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE  
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF HARVEY. LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO  
TREND WITH ITS FORECAST TRACK TO MOVE OVER, VERY NEAR OR JUST  
NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH  
FOR SOME IMPACTS FOR HIGHER SEAS, GALE FORCE WINDS AND WIDESPREAD  
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY  
IMPROVE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV  
 
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