807
FXUS64 KBRO 091013
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
413 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CURRENT KBRO RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS LOCATED MAINLY OVER CAMERON AND
HIDALGO COUNTY RIGHT NOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. DRY WEATHER WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF NEAR LAREDO. PRECIPITATION WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALS WILL BE OVER RUN BY
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PROLONGED OVERCAST AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND WILL PERSIST TO AROUND FRIDAY.
A NADIR IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
50S...SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A CUMULATIVE INCH TO
INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN ARE IN THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO
BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BE
MEAGER. TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN ITS
WAKE...WITH CLEAR SKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010/
SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX AND SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE BRO AREA BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SO FAR LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AS THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING
SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.75 INCHES. CAA WILL DOMINATE THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN
THE SHORT TERM. MAV TEMP GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM MAINTAINS A
WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS. AGREE WITH THE CURRENT TEMP
TREND WHICH LEANS TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE. EXPECT POPS TO
START INCREASING LATE WED AS THE COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING STARTS
STRENGTHENING AND MEAN RH VALUES BUILD. THE CURRENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST WORDING LOOKS ON TRACK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS
WARMER AND MOIST AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE COOLER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO DEEP SOUTH TX LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST THURS
AFTERNOON MOVES EASTWARD AS A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
MOVES ACROSS EAST TX THURS NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THURS NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FRIDAY. LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RETURN SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES SUNDAY MOVES EASTWARD MONDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTH TX.
MARINE /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 6
PM THIS EVENING AS STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND AS STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
PERSIST OFFSHORE DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MARINE /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A SURFACE TROUGH
OFFSHORE DEVELOPS AND MAINTAINS A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND HIGHER
SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL FORM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND PERIODIC SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
IMPROVED WEATHER WILL OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SURFACE OBS INDICATE CLOUD DECKS AT
A WIDE RANGE OF LEVELS...THE LOWEST AT BRO AT 1500 FEET...WITH
THE HIGHEST AT EBG AT 9K FEET. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH WORSE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CLOUD
BASES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 45 55 48 / 0 0 50 80
BROWNSVILLE 58 44 59 47 / 0 0 50 80
HARLINGEN 58 40 57 44 / 0 0 50 80
MCALLEN 60 44 52 45 / 0 0 50 80
RIO GRANDE CITY 61 43 50 41 / 0 0 50 80
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 45 59 49 / 0 0 50 80
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155-170-175.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
66/54
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page