424  
FXUS64 KBRO 142335 AAA  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
635 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. PRIMARY STORY  
WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE  
PERIOD. THAT SAID, CAN'T RULE OUT A MVFR OBSERVATION FOR HRL/BRO  
TERMINALS BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. ANY REDUCTION  
SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT): OVERALL WEATHER  
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH  
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S IN THE  
LOWER VALLEY TO AROUND 100F IN THE MID TO UPPER VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES  
WILL BE VERY LOW AND BEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. RH VALUES  
INLAND WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 50% IN THE RGV, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR  
ISOLATED CONVECTION, BUT SEABREEZE INITIATION WILL BE DIFFICULT WITH  
MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT SILENT 10%  
POPS INLAND WITH 20% ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE IN  
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH STRONGER  
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK  
HOT AND GENERALLY DRY FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS  
WEEKEND. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST,  
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY; ALTHOUGH, A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH  
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING MEXICO AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH  
INGREDIENTS FOR ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH  
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.  
 
MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT MID TO  
LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, BUT KEPT  
ACTIVITY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY  
TOP 100 DEGREES IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING MORE LOCATIONS BELOW TRIPLE DIGITS EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM  
105-109 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
MARINE (NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT): MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT OVER  
THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE  
EASTERN GULF WITH LOWER PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT  
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO  
20 KNOTS.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE SEAS OF GENERALLY 2 TO 4  
FEET ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND ON THE GULF OF MEXICO. A  
MODERATE CHOP WILL PERSIST ON THE LAGUNA MADRE, ESPECIALLY DURING  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES INTO  
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS  
INTO THE MIDWEST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE  
CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV  
 
AVIATION UPDATE...FRYE-55  
 
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