936  
FXUS64 KCRP 191110 AAA  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
610 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
IR FOG CHANNEL SHOWING SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN  
TERMINALS, SO DID INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN 3  
TAFS. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 06Z FORECAST ISSUANCE, WITH  
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SOUTH TEXAS TERMINAL FORECASTS WITH THE WINDS  
PICKING UP BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO  
WEST THEN DYING DOWN THE SAME IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AGAIN,  
COULD HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 20/06Z BUT OVERALL SHOULD  
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SO DID NOT WANT TO PUT IN TEMPOS FOR THE LAST  
FEW HOURS OF THE TERMINALS GIVEN THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...  
 
LOOKS LIKE RAIN PROSPECTS FOR THE INLAND AREAS REMAIN LITTLE TO  
NONE, AND THAT IS WHAT WILL BE FORECAST RAIN-WISE FOR THE NEXT TWO  
DAYS. LOOKING AT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND  
THE SHORTER-RANGE MODELS (MAINLY TTU AND NSSL), ANY CONVECTION WILL  
BE VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. COULD PUT A MENTION OF RAIN AROUND  
CALHOUN COUNTY WHERE ANY PRECIP MAY OCCUR TODAY, BUT PREFER TO HOLD  
OFF AND LET IT BE HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM FORECASTS SINCE ACTIVITY  
WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR COMES IN TONIGHT SO  
NOT EXPECTING MUCH EVEN IN THE GULFMEX. FOR SUNDAY, MOISTURE DOES  
GET A BIT BETTER OFFSHORE AND HAVE KEPT THE 20 POP OFFSHORE;  
OTHERWISE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FARTHER SOUTH AND NE SO  
PREFER TO AGAIN KEEP IT DRY (COULD ADD RAIN ON THE DAY SHIFT OR ON  
MY NEXT MID SHIFT BUT UNLIKELY POPS WILL BE 20 PERCENT AT THIS  
TIME). UNTIL THEN, WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY.  
 
TEMPERATURE-WISE AM EXPECTING MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY  
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AS PER MODEL 2 METER AND 850MB  
TEMPERATURES. MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WILL KNOCK ANOTHER  
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES, BUT IT WILL STILL BE  
WARM AND HUMID. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT INDICES WILL BE 105 TO 109 MANY  
AREAS TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH 110 DEGREES AGAIN AROUND KINGSVILLE AND  
ISOLATED LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST (LIKE NAS CORPUS). ONCE AGAIN,  
WILL HANDLE WITH SPS WHICH WORKED OUT NICELY ON FRIDAY. LOWS SUNDAY  
MORNING CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND VALUES (MODEL HAS BEEN DOING GOOD FOR  
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS).  
 
BOY020 IS REPORTING 2 FOOT SWELLS WITH 6 SECOND PERIODS. MODELS  
INDICATING THESE SWELL PERIODS WILL GO TO 9 OR 10 SECONDS THIS  
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS SWELL HEIGHTS MAY ONLY BE A FOOT OR  
SO. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS 120-140 DEGREES AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, ALONG  
WITH APPROACH OF NEW MOON, THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING THE RIP  
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE (BORDERLINE). WITH IT BEING THE WEEKEND AND  
ALREADY HAVE CALLED FOR MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK, WILL MAINTAIN THE  
MODERATE RISK (AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH SUNDAY).  
 
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...  
 
SHOULD HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ON THE WATERS, WITH WEAK TO  
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE  
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BIT BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE.  
 
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...  
 
A CHANGE WILL FINALLY OCCUR IN THE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WITH THE  
UPCOMING WEEK. A TUTT LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PWAT  
VALUES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL AREA  
ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE WESTWARD  
PROGRESSION OF THE THE TUTT LOW, BUT IT WILL STILL APPROACH THE  
COASTAL ZONES BY MONDAY, LINGERING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A  
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP  
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FURTHER INCREASES OF  
MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO  
LATE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL PROGRESSION OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY  
AFTER IT PASSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE CONSIDERABLE  
UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THIS SYSTEM MAY TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD,  
HAVE KEPT POPS MORE OF A BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MID TO LATE WEEK.  
 
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL ALSO BRING LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAN  
THE REGION HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY "COOL" TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES (AS OPPOSED TO  
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THAT HAVE BEEN ONGOING) DURING THE EARLY TO  
MID WEEK. IF RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES MORE LATE IN THE WEEK, COULD  
CERTAINLY SEE MORE BELOW NORMAL (THOUGH STILL WARM) TEMPERATURES  
LATE IN THE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH  
DAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 78 97 77 95 / 10 10 10 10 30  
VICTORIA 99 77 99 76 96 / 10 0 10 10 40  
LAREDO 104 79 103 78 101 / 0 0 0 10 10  
ALICE 101 76 101 75 98 / 10 0 10 10 20  
ROCKPORT 94 82 94 80 92 / 10 10 10 20 40  
COTULLA 103 77 102 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 10  
KINGSVILLE 100 77 100 77 97 / 10 0 10 10 20  
NAVY CORPUS 95 83 95 81 92 / 10 10 10 20 30  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
GW/86...AVIATION  
 
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