254  
FXUS64 KCRP 302336 AAA  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
636 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WAS  
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS  
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AREA WEB CAMERAS STILL SHOW ELEVATED TIDAL  
LEVELS.  
 
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES ON MONDAY WITH SOME  
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD  
COVER IS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A  
QUITE BENIGN SHORT TERM FORECAST. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IN LOW  
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BEING AFFECTED BY RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.  
MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT OF WINDS SHIFTING BACK AROUND TO EAST OR  
SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS PRETTY LIGHT HOWEVER, SO SHOULD  
NOT RAPIDLY INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL  
LIKELY HALT COOLING ALONG THE COAST WELL BEFORE SUNRISE AND KEEP  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITHIN 10-15 MILES OF THE COASTLINE.  
INLAND, SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND  
LOWER 50S. CLOUD FREE SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, AND  
WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH 850MB FLOW  
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY, LIKELY BACK TO  
THE LOWER 90S WEST AND MID AND UPPER 80S EAST. WARMING WILL ALSO  
BE AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL MONDAY  
NIGHT. AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT, DPTS RAPIDLY  
INCREASE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WILL ALSO SEE A FEW CLOUDS  
START TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. AT THIS  
POINT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.  
 
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...  
 
GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TO  
ENTER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. GFS DETERMINISTIC  
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE  
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE FOREGOING MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED  
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE  
GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH  
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE PREDICTED TO MOVE NW-SE ACROSS THE SRN  
PLAINS, WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF THE  
CWA/MSA. YET, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS  
THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND TRIGGER SCATTERED  
CONVECTION. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.  
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE MSA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 88 68 85 76 / 0 0 0 10 20  
VICTORIA 55 89 62 86 71 / 0 0 0 10 30  
LAREDO 57 93 64 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 10  
ALICE 54 90 63 89 74 / 0 0 0 10 20  
ROCKPORT 65 84 74 82 76 / 0 0 0 10 30  
COTULLA 53 93 62 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 10  
KINGSVILLE 56 89 65 88 75 / 0 0 0 10 20  
NAVY CORPUS 69 85 73 83 77 / 0 0 0 10 20  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT  
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO  
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY  
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS  
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
TB/78...AVIATION  
 
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