978  
FXUS64 KCRP 222020  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
320 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
 
 
CONCUR WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/NAM THAT THE UPPER RIDGE  
WITH AN APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS ACROSS THE SRN CONUS WILL REMAIN  
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE PERIOD. NAM DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS  
CONTINUED DRYING WITH BELOW NORMAL PWAT VALUES BY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA. THUS NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE  
EXPECTED PROGRESIVE PATTERN NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING MSLP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS WHICH  
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH SCEC CONDITIONS  
OVER THE MSA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF NEAR  
SURFACE MOISTURE AND DRYING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY  
FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. WIND SPEEDS MAY PRECLUDE  
FOG SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
AND TEMPERATURE SUGGEST 105-109F DEGREE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX  
VALUES, WITH 110F DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR LESS THAN 2 HOURS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
 
 
SUNDAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-109 RANGE,  
POSSIBLY AROUND 110 IN A FEW PLACES. A EASTERLY WAVE IS PROGGED TO  
APPROACH S TX SUNDAY BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND  
LEADING TO ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TO A  
CHANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND MONDAY. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE  
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MON, BUT NOT AS HIGH AS WITH THIS LAST RAIN  
EVENT. ALSO, THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING FASTER AND SHOULD BE WELL WEST  
OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP  
TUE. MX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER MON/TUE DUE TO THE  
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK, RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD,  
BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED SEA  
BREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WORK WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CAUTION LEVELS  
SUN/MON, POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE  
WATERS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 91 79 92 79 / 0 0 10 10 20  
VICTORIA 76 92 78 93 77 / 10 10 10 10 10  
LAREDO 77 101 78 102 79 / 0 0 0 10 10  
ALICE 76 96 78 96 77 / 0 0 10 10 20  
ROCKPORT 80 87 81 89 80 / 10 10 10 10 20  
COTULLA 76 102 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 10 10  
KINGSVILLE 77 95 79 94 78 / 0 0 10 10 20  
NAVY CORPUS 80 87 81 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 20  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WC/87...SHORT TERM  
TE/81...LONG TERM  
 
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