107
FXUS64 KCRP 020931
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
331 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2008
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
COMMENCED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE GULF. LEE CYCLOGENESIS TODAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. WINDS GUSTS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG
CRITERION. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LOW RH VALUES STILL IN PLACE IN COMBINATION WITH
LOW SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR TONIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROCESSES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS A RESULT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WAA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 80S.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
THE GFS/NOGAPS/
CANADIAN/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH
RESPECT TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NGT/EARLY THU. FURTHER...THE SOLNS PROG A HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVR THE MIDWEST/ERN CONUS. THE FIRST
SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO A FROPA WED NGT/THU ACRS THE CWFA/MSA. GFS
INSTABILITY (USING THE LI AS PROXY) SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTION
ALG THE FRONT WL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS WED NGT. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA THROUGH THU. THE GFS PROGS LIMITED
ISENTROPIC LIFT FRI/FRI NGT. WL LOWER POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRATIFORM RAIN FRI/FRI NGT OWING TO FAIRLY HIGH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS. IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH...A FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE IS PROGD TO ENTER THE REGION
SUNDAY. BASED ON THE GFS...ISENTROPIC LIFT ANTICIPATED AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. YET...WL ONLY INCREASE CLOUDS.
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVER THE GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER
THE GULF TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING...
AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 62 82 52 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 72 58 79 45 62 / 0 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 54 86 51 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 78 56 85 48 66 / 0 0 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 73 64 78 52 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 79 53 81 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 76 59 82 52 66 / 0 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 73 66 78 55 64 / 0 10 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GOLIAD...VICTORIA.
GM...NONE.
TM/95...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM
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