882  
FXUS64 KCRP 252343  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
643 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW CORRESPONDING TO THE 00Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
EXPECT CURRENT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 02Z  
MONDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION  
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING  
NEAR THE COAST/OFFSHORE. A TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR  
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SOUTH  
TEXAS DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.  
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST FLOW OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY, INCREASING TO  
MODERATE BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING FARTHER WEST ACROSS  
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES  
EAST. EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE STABILIZED MUCH OF THE COASTAL  
AREAS, HOWEVER THERE IS ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY TOWARD  
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, WHERE ADDITIONAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR  
DEVELOPMENT. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND FLOW HAS LED TO SLOW  
MOVING STORMS. AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWATS  
AROUND 2.0 INCHES PER KCRP 12Z SOUNDING) HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED  
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TO WANE DURING THE  
EVENING HOURS, BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF  
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS SETUP FOR MONDAY AND  
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, MOVING INLAND WITH DAYTIME  
HEATING. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS KEEPING  
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY HAVE  
ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM IN BETWEEN SHOWERS.  
 
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...  
 
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVERHEAD SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO  
RIDGES MAKES FOR A CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN. AMPLE TOTAL  
COLUMN MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE AND COASTAL  
CONVERGENCE ZONES KEEPS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY. DRIER  
AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE  
SHEAR AXIS BREAKS DOWN AND WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN ALOFT.  
THIS HELPS TO DECREASE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT DOES NOT  
COMPLETELY DRY US OUT. STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TOWARDS THE  
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER THAN NUMEROUS.  
 
THE STRONGER WINDS AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY WILL ACTUALLY HELP TO BOOST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK  
ABOVE AVERAGE. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL PWATS,  
AROUND 1.9-2.0", HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 105 TO 109  
DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 90 77 89 75 / 40 50 30 60 20  
VICTORIA 73 90 73 90 74 / 30 50 30 60 30  
LAREDO 76 94 76 94 75 / 30 40 20 50 20  
ALICE 73 93 73 92 73 / 30 50 20 60 20  
ROCKPORT 78 89 78 89 78 / 40 50 40 60 30  
COTULLA 74 93 74 94 74 / 30 40 20 40 10  
KINGSVILLE 74 92 75 90 74 / 30 50 30 60 20  
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 80 90 79 / 40 50 40 50 30  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON CDT MONDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.  
 
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WC/87...AVIATION  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page