026  
FXUS64 KCRP 140453  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
1053 PM CST WED DEC 13 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT DOES NOT REQUIRE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES.  
CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL HELP  
TO KEEP US WARMER THAN PAST MORNINGS.  
 
06Z AVIATION UPDATE IS BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
TONIGHT - THURSDAY...VFR. MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN  
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE  
FLOW EXPECTED. THINKING GROUND FOG WILL BE HARD TO COME BY GIVEN  
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, EVEN AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
CREEPS UPWARD. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE BY LATE THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS,  
MOSTLY NEAR KALI/KCRP, ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 

 
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST WED DEC 13 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA  
WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS INTO A WAVE AS  
IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO  
STREAM ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUD COVER  
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION ALONG THE COAST.  
 
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS ON THURSDAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE  
GREAT BASIN REFORMS THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA  
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH  
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO  
THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO  
MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT  
THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
A VERY STRONG 25H JET OF 150 KNOTS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN  
MEXICO INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TEXAS WILL  
BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE  
SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES  
THROUGH THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE  
295-305K LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL  
INCREASE TO 1-1.25 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST  
AREA. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS  
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL  
BEND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASED LIFT AIDED  
BY SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL  
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
TO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO CUT OFF A LOW AT THE TAIL END  
OF THE TROUGH AND HAVE IT PULL BACK TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA  
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN TROUGH PULLS TO THE EAST AND THE  
LOW DRIFTS TO THE WEST, THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUITE DOWN ACROSS  
SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. ONGOING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO  
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO  
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY RETURNING THE SW-NE FLOW ALOFT,  
NUDGING IT INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH  
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF WILL AIDE IN SHOWERS FOR  
SATURDAY. WITH THE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT, DID CONTINUE MENTION OF  
POSSIBLE THUNDER, ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS.  
IN WAKE OF THE LATE THURSDAY FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE HAD  
TIME TO RECOVER, SO FOR SATURDAY, SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE COLD  
AND RAINY CONDITIONS, AS HIGHS SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING OUT  
OF THE 50S. BY SUNDAY, MODELS QUICKLY LIFT THE MID-LEVEL LOW  
NORTHEAST, LIFTING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND RAIN TO THE  
NORTHEAST AS WELL. MODELS HANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK DIFFERENTLY. THE  
GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE MOISTURE LINGERING NEARBY WHILE THE ECMWF IS  
MUCH DRIER. THE ECMWF HAS A REINFORCING HIGH MOVE IN BY MONDAY WHILE  
THE GFS HOLDS ONTO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE REINFORCING  
HIGH MOVING IN BY MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT  
CHANCE ON MONDAY FOR THE WATERS AND COASTAL REGIONS, BUT THEN DRY  
THINGS BY TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 73 47 55 46 / 0 20 80 40 20  
VICTORIA 45 71 45 57 41 / 0 10 50 20 10  
LAREDO 50 68 47 57 45 / 0 10 70 40 20  
ALICE 48 72 47 56 44 / 0 20 80 40 20  
ROCKPORT 52 70 48 56 48 / 10 20 80 40 10  
COTULLA 45 70 45 59 44 / 0 10 40 20 10  
KINGSVILLE 49 73 47 56 45 / 0 20 80 50 20  
NAVY CORPUS 54 70 49 57 50 / 10 20 80 50 20  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
GH/77...AVIATION  
 
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