408  
FXUS64 KCRP 142342 AAA  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
642 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AND  
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ALONG WITH  
A MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TO EXPECT SOME  
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 08-09Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.  
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE INLAND AREAS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME PATCHY  
FOG. WILL SHOW TEMPO GROUP AT ALI/VCT FROM 09-13Z FOR MVFR  
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE COASTAL  
WATERS LATE TONIGHT COULD AFFECT THE PKV AREA MAINLY DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE  
PREVALENT ELSEWHERE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS  
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 238 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...  
 
THIS WILL BE SHORT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN A BIT  
BETTER AND OVERALL THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXCEPT  
POSSIBLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING WITH STREAMER  
SHOWERS OR A VERY ISOLATED CELL FARTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON  
WITH THE SEA- BREEZE (A SHOWER MAYBE AS 700MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE  
10C). BASICALLY A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FORECAST FOR SOUTH  
TEXAS FOR MID AUGUST. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO  
CLIMATOLOGY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY RATHER  
CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE. SOME CLOUDS, WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE SEA-  
BREEZE AND A FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING. ENOUGH SAID.  
 
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...  
 
BORDERLINE SCEC TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL  
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD (MAINLY SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE  
WATERS), BUT OVERALL A BIT LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.  
AGAIN SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TOOK  
THUNDER OUT AS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 10C.  
 
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...  
 
MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA FOR THE  
END OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A  
SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT AND THUS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. WE WILL  
STILL HAVE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE, SO HUMID CONDITIONS, BUT  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES ARE NOTED THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 90S TO A  
BIT ABOVE 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 105 AND  
109.  
 
BY MONDAY, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS...SPECIFICALLY IN  
TERMS OF THE LEVELS OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. GFS MODEL  
REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH LAYER RH VALUES BELOW 50%...WHILE THE WETTER  
ECMWF INDICATES RH VALUES BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT. ECMWF HAS A  
HISTORY OF BEING TOO WET, SO WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS FOR NOW, KEEPING  
THINGS RATHER DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT  
COULD BE PUSHING THROUGH NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS AND COULD LEAD TO  
SOME MOISTURE POOLING, THUS HAVE ALLOWED A 20 POP FOR NORTHERN  
AREAS. ECMWF OF COURSE A LITTLE MORE INTO THE RAIN CHANCES THAN  
GFS. TIME WILL TELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LARGELY UNCHANGED BY  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 93 77 95 77 / 10 10 10 10 10  
VICTORIA 75 96 75 96 76 / 10 10 10 10 10  
LAREDO 78 104 79 103 77 / 0 0 0 10 0  
ALICE 74 97 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 10  
ROCKPORT 82 91 82 92 80 / 10 10 10 10 10  
COTULLA 75 101 76 101 75 / 0 0 0 10 0  
KINGSVILLE 77 97 77 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10  
NAVY CORPUS 82 93 82 92 81 / 10 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
TMT/89...AVIATION  
 
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