624  
FXUS64 KCRP 240002  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
702 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW CORRESPONDING TO THE 00Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR BRIEF  
MVFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 281 DURING THE 10-13Z  
TUESDAY PERIOD, AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WEST OF S.R. 16 DUING THE  
PERIOD 11-14Z TUESDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,  
THEN PREDOMINATE ONSHORE AND INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR AT  
LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE  
OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO REALLY SLACKEN OFF.  
THERE IS A BIT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE  
REGION BUT AMPLE SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO KEEP US MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.  
AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL  
BE MAXIMIZED. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST  
NIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST A TOUCH WARMER BUT COULD ALSO  
PROVIDE A BIT MORE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE  
REGION.  
 
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S/LOW-90S  
ACROSS THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE COAST. NEXT SHOT  
OF RAIN, STARTING OFF ACROSS THE WEST, WILL BE LATER WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA  
MADRE'S ALLOWS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH  
LOOKS TO SETUP WHICH MAY SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING  
HOURS, DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW  
BECOMES. EXPECTING A FEW STORMS TO DRIFT INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS  
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, AHEAD OF THE ENSUING COLD  
FRONT.  
 
WITH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT WE COULD SEE AREAS EAST OF HWY 281  
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS. THE BETTER MOISTURE AND  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS  
WHERE WE CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF FOR THE EVENT. WE'VE BEEN  
DRY FOR A WHILE SO IT'S HARD TO FORECAST ANY DECENT RAIN, THAT IS  
MUCH NEEDED, WITHOUT A BIG PATTERN SHIFT IN THE WORKS. SURFACE FRONT  
LOOKS TO BE OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH JUST SOME WEAK  
MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL OCCURRING SO THERE COULD BE A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MID-THURSDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE WE ARE  
DRYING OUT.  
 
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...  
 
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY  
WITH A COUPLE VERY NICE DAYS IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK  
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE GULF  
WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER THE  
SIERRA MADRE ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT  
THE FAR WEST LATER IN THE DAY. ISO-SCT CONVECTION THEN POSSIBLE  
AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE  
BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING. HPC TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 85 64 83 62 / 0 0 10 10 30  
VICTORIA 55 87 61 83 59 / 0 0 10 10 40  
LAREDO 64 93 68 87 63 / 0 0 10 30 40  
ALICE 57 90 63 87 62 / 0 0 10 20 40  
ROCKPORT 65 79 69 79 61 / 0 0 10 10 30  
COTULLA 59 93 64 85 59 / 0 0 10 30 40  
KINGSVILLE 58 89 64 86 64 / 0 0 10 10 30  
NAVY CORPUS 66 82 70 81 66 / 0 0 10 10 40  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WC/87...AVIATION  
 
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