157
FXUS64 KCRP 072111
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
311 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
VIGOROUS DETACHED
S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST FROM BAJA TO NRN MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS S/CEN TEXAS SUN AND SUN EVENING PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING TO THE REGION.
THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z SUN...TAPERING OFF IN
THE EVENING. THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT UNFORTUNATE
AS IS WILL ACTUALLY LIMIT RETURN FLOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER...THE LOW MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN SIDE DOES NOT REACH THE AREA
UNTIL SUN NIGHT. ALSO...IT STILL APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT TO PROVIDE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS ON SUN GIVEN
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOC W/ THE UPR SYSTEM TO THE WEST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT WITH CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG AND
SHEAR IS NOT STRONG SO UNLESS THINGS HEAT UP MUCH MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...APPEARS SVR TSTMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ QPF SHOWING 1/2-1 INCH TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS
CEN ZONES...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE ECM IS
PROBABLY A BIT AGGRESSIVE...BUT ISOLD AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OR
LITTLE HIGH MAY BE POSSIBLE. BEST POPS IN LIKELY RANGE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CEN/ERN ZONES ON SUN BUT WILL KEEP LINGERING SLT CHC-CHC
POPS SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN WRN ZONES AT 00Z.
GIVEN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THINK FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
A POTENT SRN STREAM S/WV WL
MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. THE S/WV WL TAKE THE SFC LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EWD TWDS IDA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN EFFECT WL BE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MON AS RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG RDG AXIS ALOFT WITH THEN
BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT/WED BEHIND A WK COLD FNT. THIS
FNT WL BE DRAWN THROUGH THE CWA AS DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW MERGES WITH IDA ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY FRI AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
FINALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS ONSHORE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SRN STREAM
S/WV WL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED PCPN. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE PD. TIDAL
LVLS WL LKLY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MON DUE
TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES AND LARGE SWELLS FROM BOTH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IDA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 79 64 80 60 / 20 70 30 10 0
VICTORIA 62 77 60 77 57 / 10 70 40 10 0
LAREDO 66 86 64 83 60 / 10 40 10 10 0
ALICE 64 81 63 82 58 / 10 70 30 10 0
ROCKPORT 68 79 65 79 62 / 20 70 40 10 0
COTULLA 62 77 61 83 56 / 10 40 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 65 80 64 81 59 / 20 70 30 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 79 67 79 64 / 20 70 30 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MJG...SHORT TERM
MB...LONG TERM
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