977  
FXUS64 KCRP 280632  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
132 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW CORRESPONDING TO THE 06Z TAFS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS  
WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT  
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING BREEZY/WINDY  
ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/  
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ESPECIALLY OVER THE  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 912 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST IS DOING JUST FINE. AS A RESULT, SEE NO  
NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A  
PRETTY GOOD CAP BETWEEN 850MB-750MB LEVEL. MODELS PROJECTING THIS  
CAP TO REMAIN THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY THEN ERODE SOME MAINLY OVER  
THE NE CWFA BY 12Z. THIS IMPLIES SOUTHERN-MOST AREAS LIKELY NOT TO  
SEE TOO MUCH IN RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH FORECAST PRETTY  
MUCH IS SAYING. IN SHORT: NOTHING BROKEN SO NOTHING WILL BE  
CHANGED AT THIS TIME.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.  
 
AVIATION...  
 
GOOD LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT, WHICH  
SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND DELAY THE MVFR CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT  
(STILL AM EXPECTING THEM). HOWEVER, WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WE  
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KVCT BEFORE 06Z (GOING ABOUT 03Z), WITH  
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AOA 05Z AT KALI AND AFT 06Z AT KCRP AND KLRD.  
COULD HAVE SOME BKN V SCT OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO  
PRECISE WITH THAT AS OVERALL THE CIGS SHOULD BE MVFR. BORDERLINE  
WIND SHEAR MAINLY AT KCRP AND KALI, BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS  
SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE. APPEARS THAT THE  
CIGS SHOULD LIFT AOA 15Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE  
DAY, INCREASING WITH TIME. NO RAINFALL MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...  
 
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STALLED JUST NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA WITH  
A BAND OF STRATUS AHEAD OF IT. THIS STRATUS IS STARTING TO  
DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALLOW NORTHWEST ZONES TO  
STILL WARM INTO THE 80S DESPITE BEING HELD IN THE 70S SO FAR  
TODAY. THE WIND PATTERN IS RATHER MESSY OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA  
AT THIS TIME, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO A PREDOMINANT  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS MESO FEATURES ALONG THE CLOUD BAND MIX OUT.  
 
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TO  
REDEVELOP. THINK MORE ON THE SIDE OF STRATUS TONIGHT DUE TO  
DEEPENING MOIST LAYER.  
 
NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL  
LEAD TO YET AGAIN A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LOOK FOR  
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ONCE AGAIN. PROGRESSING OF THIS SYSTEM  
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK JUST A BIT SLOWER, AND HAVE BACKED OFF  
ON BEGINNING MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES. WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS  
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO  
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.  
 
MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE APPROACH OF THIS  
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH ECMWF  
REMAINS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH QPF...AND A BIT FASTER. INCREASED  
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO  
CHANCE PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTHWEST.  
 
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...  
 
AN UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS TX WED WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO  
THE CWA WED AND THEN A WEAK FRONT WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. AHEAD OF  
THE DRYLINE ON WED, MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AND POOL ACROSS  
THE EASTERN CWA. MODELS ALSO SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, MODERATE  
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH AN 80KT JET  
NOSING ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SSW  
LLJ AHEAD OF THE SFC BDRY WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A STRONG CAP.  
MODELS DO SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF  
THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NUM SHRA/TSRA'S ACROSS VCT,  
WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER S AND W AHEAD AND ALONG THE DRYLINE  
BDRY. DRIER AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WED NIGHT, HOWEVER  
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST FOR ISOL/SCT  
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN EXIT TO THE E-NE AS  
THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO ALSO EXIT TO THE NE. SPC HAS THE  
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX AND A  
MARGINAL RISK SLIGHTLY FARTHER S AND W ON WED. THE BEST CHCS WILL BE  
TO THE N AND NE OF THE VCT CROSSROADS. THERE MAY BE A FEW STRONG  
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A BRIEF SPINUP IS ALSO NOT  
OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN THE SHEAR IS  
STRONGER. BEHIND THE COLDFRONT THU AFTERNOON, DRIER AND SLIGHTLY  
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE MORE  
NOTICEABLE THU NIGHT. FRI LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS ONCE  
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 72 87 66 84 / 10 10 30 20 10  
VICTORIA 85 71 85 65 81 / 10 30 70 30 10  
LAREDO 94 69 93 64 87 / 10 20 10 10 10  
ALICE 89 71 92 63 86 / 10 10 30 20 10  
ROCKPORT 83 73 82 69 81 / 10 10 50 30 10  
COTULLA 92 67 93 61 85 / 10 40 20 10 0  
KINGSVILLE 88 72 91 65 86 / 10 10 20 20 10  
NAVY CORPUS 80 73 84 69 80 / 10 10 30 30 10  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WC/87...AVIATION  
 
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