557
FXUS64 KCRP 042304 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
604 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
DISCUSSION
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL BE WIND. A NUMBER OF OBS SITES ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND ARE SHOWING 20G30 KNOTS AT THIS TIME AS A LOW LEVEL
JET IS DEVELOPING. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THIS
EVENING THEN WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO HOW HOT
IT IS OUTSIDE WHICH IS CAUSING TURBULENT MIXING ALLOWING THE WINDS
TO CONTINUE. ONCE WINDS DO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE LOWEST 1000-2000 FEET EVEN AS
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AFTER 09Z.
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE HEAT IS ON AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY...AS DRY AIRMASS...COMPLIMENTS OF UPPER
RIDGE...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND DRY SOILS ARE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH RECORD HIGHS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT ON
TAP AS WINDS STAY UP AND KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. ANOTHER
DEGREE OR SO WARMER FOR SUNDAY...THEN BETTER MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BRINGS IN SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. GFS BRINGS A BOUNDARY CLOSE TO AREA (MAYBE NORTHEASTERN
CWFA BY 12Z MONDAY)...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW AS IT IS
JULY AND VERY HOT. THUS...CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH NO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AN ISSUE
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN MORE TODAY THAN MODELS HAVE
SHOWN AND WITH A BIT DRIER AIRMASS ON SUNDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO USE
DEWPOINTS SEEN TODAY FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES JUST
BELOW 110F OVER MOST AREAS. WILL NOT ISSUE NPW FOR NOW BECAUSE OF
THIS AND SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THIS FIRST PERIOD
PRODUCT.
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WINDS WILL BE NEAR SCA
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE/BAYS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR
NOW. AFTERNOON SHIFT CAN DECIDE AFTER A WHILE IF WINDS GO ABOVE
CRITERION OR STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LESS ON
SUNDAY WITH WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF CWFA.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ERODING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...
RESULTING IN A WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. PWS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN DOORSTEP OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM...THE
WEAKNESS ALOFT...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE & BETWEEN THE
SEA-BREEZE AND AFOREMENTIONED WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL ALL AID TO
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST CWA EARLY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS
POOLED OVER THE CWA INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH WEAKNESS...AND
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE ACROSS
THE INLAND SOUTHERN CWA.
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY LOOK DRIER IN THE 12Z RUNS WITH
SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDING BACK TOWARDS THE REGION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP BOTH DAYS. GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A WAVE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF ARRIVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO
THE COASTAL BEND. HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THIS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW POPS FOR NOW. PERSISTENT WARM TEMPS ON THE
HIGHS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 100 78 98 77 / 0 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 78 103 77 100 76 / 0 10 10 20 10
LAREDO 82 109 81 107 82 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALICE 79 104 78 103 77 / 0 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 82 96 81 94 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 77 106 76 103 77 / 0 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 102 77 101 77 / 0 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 96 81 93 80 / 0 10 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM.
JAR/19...AVIATION
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