866
FXUS64 KCRP 091127
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVELS 2/3 OF 4) THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASED SURF
CONDITIONS/POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHILE GENERALLY
KEEPING SURFACE MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS INCREASES THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS
THE REGION BACK INTO THE 100-110F RANGE. A MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL
2 OF 4) WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MEANING THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION, WOULD
BE GREATEST AT RISK. IN THE LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE GREATEST
OPPORTUNITY OF CLEARER SKIES AND MORE OPPORTUNITY TO RAISE THE
THERMOMETER EVEN FURTHER WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MAJOR RISK (LEVEL
3 OF 4) WHICH WOULD LEAVE ALL PEOPLE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION AT
RISK. THE SEABREEZE WILL DO ITS PART TO SPARK UP SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THESE WILL BE ISOLATED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE AND
WEAK/SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE WITH LOW-END CHANCES OF OCCURRING (10-
20% CHANCES).
THIS WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL PLUMES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION AROUND THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS/YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE
SAME TIME, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS A FRONT INTO RED RIVER
VALLEY. WHILE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT CLOSER TO THE DALLAS
METROPLEX, THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEABREEZE OR STORMS THAT MOVE INLAND. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS OR
TIMING IS LOW RIGHT NOW BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WEEKEND'S SURF CONDITIONS GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES (BF 4-5),
INCREASED SWELL PERIOD, AND THE APPROACH OF NEXT WEEK'S NEW MOON
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. FOR THOSE FROM OUT OF THE TOWN (OR ANY
INTERNATIONAL VISITORS), TAKE PLENTY OF HYDRATION/SHADE BREAKS, IF
GOING TO THE BEACH, HAVE A PLAN TO QUICKLY ESCAPE A SEABREEZE STORM,
FOLLOW ALL BEACH HAZARD FLAGS, AND REAPPLY SUNSCREEN/MOSQUITO
REPELLENT!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR BUT SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AROUND
15Z. THIS AFTERNOON VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST TO MORE EASTERLY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS
PERSISTING THIS UPCOMING AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON WINDS BUT HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN THE TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH 3-4 SEAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW END SHOWERS MAINLY WILL BE FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS, THOUGH THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEK. FROM FRIDAY, SEAS
INCREASE TO 4-6 FT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE ON THE LOW END (10-15%)
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEABREEZE THAT MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAIN REMAINS LOW. THE RECENT GREEN-UP ALONG WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40% WILL KEEP THE FIRE RISK
LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 79 91 79 / 10 10 20 0
VICTORIA 91 76 91 76 / 20 10 20 0
LAREDO 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 0 0
ALICE 91 76 92 77 / 20 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 90 82 91 82 / 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 96 75 97 77 / 20 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 90 77 90 78 / 20 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 88 82 89 82 / 10 10 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-
443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...BF/80
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