821
FXUS64 KCRP 210444
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST
ACRS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH STG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS. AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW (DEPICTED WELL ON MSAS) MOVES
EAST...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WL EXTEND SCA OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS 07Z SAT AND
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO 12Z SAT. ISSUED A CFW FOR ENTIRE COAST
UNTIL 12Z SAT OWING TO RECENT TIDE LEVELS/HIGH TIDE. YET...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER HIGH TIDE IN RESPONSE TO NW FLOW AS
WATER WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 530 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT AREA TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ON THE DOWNSWING. WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE SURFACE FRONT
IS NEARLY THROUGH THE CRP CWA THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN WINDS
TAPER DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS ACROSS THE TERRESTRIAL AREAS AND
SUBSIDING TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION FOR
THE COASTAL BEND UNTIL 6 PM WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE... EXPECTING LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS WITH SOME EMBEDDED ISOLD CONVECTION AS
UPPER TROF AND MIDDLE LEVEL COLD POOL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...WITH SOME MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROSSROADS
REGION AND IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EARLY TO MID EVENING. OVERALL RH WILL
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS
DRIER AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SHALLOW RETURN RECOMMENCING AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN IN CONCERT WITH
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW PATCHY TO PERHAPS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MEX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAW A
RETURN FLOW NWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
INCREASING. ANOTHER DEEPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND THE INITAL ONE DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY TOWARD THE TX
COAST BY NOON TUESDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE HOWEVER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AT THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH SO ONLY CARRIED LOW
CHANCE OF POPS FOR TUE. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS YET ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY
REINFORCIG THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS AREA. NO
SIGIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED BEYOND TUE...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS OVERHEAD. LOWERED TEMPS
ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT DIDN'T STRAY TOO
FAR FROM GFS MOS...EXCEPT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING
AS THE SFC FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO
15 FT TDA OVR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS WL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE
NOCTURNAL PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 55 72 52 74 58 / 40 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 53 69 47 73 55 / 60 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 55 77 53 77 59 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 54 76 50 75 57 / 40 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 57 70 56 73 59 / 40 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 50 75 49 75 55 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 54 76 50 75 57 / 40 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 58 71 54 74 61 / 40 10 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
WC/87...SHORT TERM
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