734  
FXUS64 KEWX 281611  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
1111 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS GOOD. THE COLD FRONT IS JUST  
ENTERING OUR NORTHWESTERN AREA. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS NO CHANGE  
FOR OUR CWA WITH MOST OF IT IN THE SLIGHT RISK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
SHOWING AROUND 4000 J/KG CAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AROUND MAX  
HEATING, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ONLY 20-30 KTS. SHORT TERM  
MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND  
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE SET-UP SUGGESTS SOME STORMS  
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LESS LIKELY. THE  
LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOLUTIONS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING FIRST FROM  
BURNET TO GILLESPIE COUNTIES AND SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017/  
 
AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/  
CIGS THIS MORNING ARE MVFR ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND VFR AT KDRT.  
AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW  
CIGS WILL VARY FROM MVFR TO VFR. EXPECT AFTER 16Z-17Z ALL LOCATIONS  
WILL BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE TERMINALS  
WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA AROUND 20Z-21Z. THERE SHOULD  
BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES SOUTH  
ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS BECOME N-NE AT 10-15 KNOTS.  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA  
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT  
IMPACTS WILL BE REDUCED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT FOR NOW HAVE  
CONTINUED -TSRA/-SHRA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. LATER  
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ADJUST TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR OVERNIGHT  
ACTIVITY.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...  
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AT  
THE SURFACE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTH WITH  
THE HELP OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OFF THE GULF. THERE MAY BE A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OVER FEW SPOTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT THIS  
MORNING, OTHERWISE, CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-  
THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO  
GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.  
 
AS THE DAY GOES BY AND WE ENTER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
PERIOD, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND  
PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY FORM  
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS SOON THE CAP WEAKENS AROUND 4 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE ESCARPMENT LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE  
HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLOW  
DOWN ONCE IT GETS TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS COULD RESULT IN  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER SOME AREAS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
WILL BE BETWEEN 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO AREA FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS AND HIRES SOLUTIONS.  
 
THE TEXAS TECH, ARW AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER IN THE  
EVENING AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPS. IF THIS  
SOLUTION IS RIGHT, THEN STORMS WILL CONCENTRATE OVER THAT REGION AND  
THEN MOVING ON TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORPUS CHRISTI CWA LATE  
TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL OCCUR ACROSS  
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES, HOWEVER,  
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES AND LOCALIZED FLASH  
FLOODING INCREASES OVER THAT REGION.  
 
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH SHOWERS  
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG  
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE FOR THIS  
PERIOD.  
 
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...  
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR  
THE SEVERAL DAYS AND WE ARE CARRYING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S  
DUE TO WET GROUNDS AND CLOUDINESS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 69 82 67 86 / 40 50 50 30 30  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 69 81 66 85 / 30 50 50 30 40  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 80 66 85 / 30 60 50 30 40  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 67 80 65 83 / 50 40 30 30 30  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 71 85 68 84 / 40 40 30 30 30  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 81 66 84 / 50 50 40 30 30  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 71 83 67 86 / 30 60 40 30 40  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 68 82 66 85 / 30 60 50 30 40  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 70 82 67 85 / 20 70 70 40 40  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 70 82 68 85 / 30 60 50 30 40  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 70 80 68 85 / 20 60 50 30 40  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24  
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05  
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33  
 
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