644  
FXUS64 KEWX 230928  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
428 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
 
 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS  
TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN  
THE PLAINS MAINTAINS A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES A LITTLE WITH  
PWS FALLING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX  
OUT SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WE STILL EXPECT MAXIMUM  
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 107 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, EXCEPT  
LOWER IN THE HILL COUNTRY. SOME SPOTS COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY  
LEVELS OF 108 TO 110 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL GENERATE BREEZY WINDS ALLOWING FOR SOME RELIEF FROM THE  
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL  
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING TO APPROACH THE HILL COUNTRY AND  
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATION DUE TO  
FAVORABLE STORM MOTION VECTORS. HOWEVER, FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT MENTION  
OUT OF THE FORECAST AS NOCTURNAL TIMING FAVORS THE RIDGE AND CAPPING  
DISSIPATING THE ACTIVITY PRIOR TO REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND AN  
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING TO THE WEST ACROSS MEXICO/FAR SOUTH TEXAS WILL  
CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS  
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (PWS INCREASING TO NEAR 2  
INCHES) TO SURGE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HEATING AND WEAKER CAPPING  
SHOULD ENABLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY.  
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES AWAY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A  
MINOR SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MAY ALLOW  
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TO  
HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, THE  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 99 77 97 77 95 / 0 - 0 - 20  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 77 96 77 95 / 0 10 - - 20  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 76 97 76 95 / 0 - 0 - 20  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 95 75 94 / 0 10 0 - 10  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 78 102 78 99 / 0 0 0 - 10  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 76 97 77 95 / - 10 - - 10  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 99 76 96 / 0 0 0 - 20  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 98 76 97 77 95 / 0 - 0 - 20  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 96 77 95 78 94 / 0 - 10 - 20  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 77 97 77 95 / 0 0 0 - 20  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 99 77 96 / 0 0 0 - 20  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY  
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04  
 
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