081  
FXUS64 KEWX 222331  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
531 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH  
FEW-SCT CIRRUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND FEW ALTOCU DEVELOPING OUT WEST  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY  
WINDS DECREASING RAPIDLY TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS EVENING,  
THEN TURNING MAINLY TO EASTERLY MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY, EXCEPT TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS OUT WEST.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 238 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...  
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH  
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S,  
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. THIS IS  
LEADING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA. WE HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF HOT SPOTS ON INFRARED SATELLITE, BUT  
CALLS TO THE COUNTIES SHOW THESE HAVE BEEN CONTROLLED BURNS AND  
THEREFORE THERE ARE NO ACTIVE WILD FIRES IN OUR CWA AT THE PRESENT  
TIME. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH  
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR ANY RED  
FLAG WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. OTHERWISE, FOR TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE ABLE  
TO REACH INTO THE 30S WITH A POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY  
AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  
 
TOMORROW, LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND WILL BEGIN TO BECOME SOUTHERLY  
IN THE WESTERN CWA AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TO TODAY'S TEMPERATURES  
WITH LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO  
ENSURE THERE BEING NO THREAT FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE  
AREA. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR, IN THE 30S FOR MUCH  
OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY.  
 
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...  
ANOTHER COOL DAY WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES  
RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL  
QUICKLY SHIFT BACK FROM THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL  
FINALLY BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND WITH  
SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY  
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY  
SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION KEEPING THE  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS  
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT, HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERS  
LOW QPF IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE  
ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER WITH THE FRONT WHICH BRINGS IN MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND DRIES OUT THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL  
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND STICK CLOSER TO THE  
ECMWF THAN THE GFS ON THE OTHER FORECAST FIELDS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 38 66 38 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 31 65 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 0  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 33 66 35 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 0  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 34 63 34 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 0  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 34 67 38 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 0  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 33 64 32 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 0  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 33 69 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 - 0  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 35 66 35 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 0  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 65 36 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 36 67 36 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 0  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 35 67 37 63 38 / 0 0 0 - 0  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04  
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH  
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...WILLIAMS  
 
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