614
FXUS64 KEWX 071739
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1139 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SE SFC WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FEW-SCT STRATOCU TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT WITH AN MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK. A RECURRENCE OF FOG IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH VSBYS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO
LIFR/VLIFR. SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AS A DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL GULF LOW STREAMS UP THE TEXAS
COAST. GENERALLY EXPECTING SHRA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ISOLATED
TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1115 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED.
DISCUSSION...
SUN HAD ERODED FOG AND VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
CWA...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
TO ADJUST DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION...
FOG IS ERODING AROUND THE EDGES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE CANCELLED IT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST AND EXTENDED IT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND DOWN I37 UNTIL NOON.
VIS IS SLOW TO INCREASE FROM TRAVIS TO UVALDE COUNTIES AND SOUTH
THROUGH ATASCOSA. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE FOG FREE BY NOON AS SUN
CONTINUES TO ERODE IT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
BKN-OVC STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS MORNING WITH VLIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STRATUS AND FOG
WILL MIX OUT LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR SKIES OF FEW STRATOCUMULUS
AND SCT CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS AND FOG
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY LEADING TO CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. SELY WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF TODAY WITH LIGHTER AND VARIABLE AT OTHER TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOME LOW STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IS LIKELY PROVIDING PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM,
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO APPEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS TX SUNDAY, AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
SHOULD BUILD IN ITS WAKE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MILD TO COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT, BUT A FEW STRONG STORM CELLS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
TIMING OF AFTERNOON HEATING. SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF
TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-35. THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA
OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
OVER TX TUESDAY IS SHOWING WEAKENING TRENDS WITH EACH NEW MODEL
RUN AS IS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. THUS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
PICTURE FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WEAK FRONT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO REMOVE
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EARLY MORNINGS LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 59 74 60 77 / - 10 40 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 56 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 58 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 57 70 56 73 / - 10 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 60 75 61 77 / - 10 30 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 58 73 59 75 / - 10 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 58 75 59 77 / - 10 40 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 57 74 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 60 75 61 77 / - 10 50 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 59 74 61 77 / - 10 40 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 59 75 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
05/25
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