695
FXUS64 KEWX 121135
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2008
AVIATION
VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING MVFR
LEVELS STARTING 05Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL OFF THE
SIERRAS TOWARD KDRT BETWEEN 02-06Z, THEN WEAKEN TO LIGHT SHOWERS
BEFORE REACHING INTERSTATE 35. SE WINDS WILL RETURN TO ALL
TERMINAL BY 18Z...PULLING IN HAZE AT KSAT-KSSF AFT 07Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 444 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2008/
DISCUSSION...
A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AHEAD DUE TO LACK OF CONSENSUS AND
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND WILL GENERALLY TAKE AN
AVERAGE. SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SOME HIGH BASED STRATUS HAS ALREADY WORKED
NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS RADAR PROFILES SHOW SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS. DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TODAY
LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF A DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND OVER THE BURRO MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE, WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT, AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL
INFLOW WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. MAY EVEN BE SOME STRONGER STORMS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND LOWER PECOS VALLEYS. SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES MOVE OVER TEXAS AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LIFT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SPC SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG SHEAR, CAPE,
AND INSTABILITY. PWS AS HIGH AS TWO INCHES, AT TIMES ALSO SUGGESTS
A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAY MENTION IN HWO,
HOWEVER NOT IN OTHER TEXT PRODUCTS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION AND LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO EAST LATE FRIDAY LEADING
TO FAIR WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS GENERALLY WENT
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF MEX GUIDANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 70 87 74 88 / 10 20 10 40 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 68 87 75 87 / 10 20 10 40 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 92 73 94 / 10 20 10 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 71 88 74 91 / 10 20 10 40 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
04/06
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