201  
FXUS64 KEWX 262347  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
647 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH CAUSED WIND GUSTS  
AROUND 40 KTS. THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO  
THE NORTH. STRONG WINDS WILL NOT REACH AUS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS  
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE  
MORNING THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 326 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...  
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL  
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD  
ACROSS MEXICO THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW, DEEP  
LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP USHER SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO  
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN IMPACT SHOULD BE SOME  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIO  
GRANDE PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. SIMILAR  
TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS  
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 PM.  
 
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY  
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WE  
COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRT WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105-108  
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN EAGLE PASS TO AUSTIN LINE.  
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO  
SHOW SOME LOWER DEW POINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST AREAS  
WILL REMAIN DRY, ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY  
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.  
 
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...  
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LATE  
IN THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAINS  
INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO  
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 100-105 FOR MOST AREAS,  
EXCEPT UPPER 90S IN THE HILL COUNTRY. THE MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF  
SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO  
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR OUR AREA. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE  
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR 100  
TO NEAR 105 AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BE  
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35  
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK  
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, IF THIS FRONT DELAYS  
IT'S SOUTHWARD PROGRESS, IT WILL BE VERY WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE  
COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL  
PROVIDE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
FOR NOW, WE WILL GENERALLY KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30% RANGE.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE ALOFT RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 101 77 102 78 / 10 - - 0 -  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 100 76 101 76 / 10 - - 0 -  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 75 101 75 / 10 - - 0 -  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 74 99 74 / 10 0 0 0 -  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 100 78 102 78 / - 0 0 0 0  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 77 100 77 / 10 0 0 0 10  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 101 74 103 75 / 20 - - 0 0  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 75 101 75 / 10 10 - 0 -  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 99 76 101 77 / 10 10 - - -  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 99 77 101 77 / 10 - - 0 0  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 76 101 76 / 10 10 - 0 0  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05  
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17  
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...YB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page