612  
FXUS64 KEWX 210033  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
633 PM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT  
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG  
THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WHILE WINDS BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT  
DRT. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORED EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR  
GIVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCT CLOUDS ALONG I-35, BUT CIGS SHOULD STILL  
REMAIN VFR. WINDS ALONG I-35 VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD  
OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW, WITH THE FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE  
00Z-02Z TIME FRAME. SOME NORTHERLY GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE  
BOUNDARY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20KTS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE  
THROUGH DRT A LITTLE EARLIER AND WE WILL SHOW A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT  
AROUND 18Z. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE EARLY AND WOULD NOT BE TOO  
SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO DELAY THE WIND SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 232 PM CST MON NOV 20 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...  
AS ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT ANOTHER APPROACHES ON  
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST BY  
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO  
MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE  
FAR EASTERN AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. WARMER LOW  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THOUGH WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW  
GUIDANCE DUE TO AN INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS MOST AREAS. WARMER,  
ABOVE NORMAL, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A  
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BRIEFLY DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF  
THE SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK  
AND ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALLOWS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR  
THE COASTAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE  
TO WEAK INSTABILITY THERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF  
THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  
 
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...  
THE SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ENDING THE WEAK  
LIFT AND SHOWERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES  
OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COOL, BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING SUBSIDE AS THE DAY  
PROGRESSES DUE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESS MIXING OF ALOFT.  
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT  
INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO NIGHT. NOT MUCH COOL DOWN EXPECTED  
AS COLD ADVECTION IS MOSTLY SHUNTED TO OUR NORTHEAST. FRONT LIFTS  
BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO  
NEXT MONDAY WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 75 50 64 41 / 0 0 - 0 0  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 75 51 64 39 / 0 0 10 0 0  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 76 51 65 39 / 0 0 - 0 0  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 73 44 62 38 / 0 0 - 0 0  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 44 78 47 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 0  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 74 48 63 38 / 0 0 10 0 0  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 78 48 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 48 76 50 65 39 / 0 0 - 0 0  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 76 53 64 39 / - - 20 0 0  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 50 76 51 66 41 / 0 0 - 0 0  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 48 77 53 67 42 / 0 0 - 0 0  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24  
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05  
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33  
 
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