872  
FXUS64 KFWD 300018  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
718 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
MORNING WILL BE TIMING CONVECTION. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH SUNSET. IMPACTS  
WILL BE BRIEF WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY  
WINDS. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.  
HOWEVER...THE STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD  
ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL  
JET OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES  
BETWEEN ABOUT 05Z AND 10Z. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTH  
AND WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON WACO OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING  
SO WILL JUST CARRY VCTS BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS  
WILL EXIT THE REGION BEFORE MIDDAY MONDAY.  
 
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY WITH AND BEHIND THE STORM  
COMPLEX OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 6 AND 12 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR  
SOME STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
79  
 

 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/  
ANOTHER WEEK, BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME. EACH AFTERNOON,  
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE  
WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST. OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE TIME WITHOUT RAIN THAN WITH  
RAIN, BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK  
AND POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND. SEVERE CHANCES THIS WEEK ARE LOWER THAN  
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE  
PRIMARY THREAT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
FOR TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, THE FORECAST SHOULD SOUND FAMILIAR.  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN ONGOING IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AS  
WELL AS JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT ALONG A DRY LINE.  
THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM THIS EVENING'S MESOSCALE  
COMPLEX, AND WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE, THERE IS SOME  
DESTABILIZATION GOING ON WITH THE SUNSHINE AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE, AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPE  
IS RUNNING FROM 1000 TO 3500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS,  
WHICH MEANS WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP BEFORE 6 PM. EVEN  
SO, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AFTER 9 PM FOR MOST AREAS.  
MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT, AS THE OVERNIGHT STORMS  
WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE DAY, LEAVING MOST OF MONDAY WITH A MIX  
OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS, BEFORE THE CYCLE REPEATS ITSELF.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE  
MORE OF AN IMPACT ON MANY OF US. LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE  
WILL STILL BE WITH US BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE UPPER  
LEVEL LIFT WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO  
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT FRONT GETS HERE.  
ALL OF THIS WILL COMBINE FOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE,  
WHILE THE WIND SHEAR WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE FAVORABLE FOR  
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR WILL  
ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL  
PRODUCERS. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS TRUE, THIS WOULD PRODUCE  
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF 2 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
REGION. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN  
NORTH TEXAS, MAINLY FROM THE RATE OF RAINFALL, AND NOT NECESSARILY  
THE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. AS MORE DETAILS ARE KNOWN,  
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WATCHES BEING ISSUED. SINCE THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE EXACT POSITIONS OF THE SURFACE  
AND UPPER AIR FEATURES, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO  
PINPOINT AREAS FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.  
 
FOX  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 87 70 85 69 / 50 30 30 50 60  
WACO 69 87 68 86 69 / 50 30 30 50 50  
PARIS 67 84 67 82 68 / 30 20 20 40 50  
DENTON 66 86 68 84 68 / 50 30 30 50 70  
MCKINNEY 66 85 67 86 68 / 40 30 20 40 60  
DALLAS 69 88 71 85 70 / 40 30 30 50 60  
TERRELL 69 86 68 86 68 / 40 20 20 40 50  
CORSICANA 69 86 69 85 69 / 40 20 20 40 50  
TEMPLE 68 84 68 84 70 / 50 30 30 50 50  
MINERAL WELLS 67 85 67 84 67 / 60 30 30 50 70  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
79/82  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page