271  
FXUS64 KFWD 282237 AAA  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
537 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY MONDAY  
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT THE CHANCES AT THE TAF SITES ARE TOO LOW  
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT TAF  
ISSUANCE TIME WILL BECOME EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND  
NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING.  
 
AT WACO...SOME 5SM BR BKN015 IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z  
MONDAY; OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING  
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
FOR NOW WILL JUST PLACE VCSH STARTING AT 18Z. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10  
KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING.  
 
58  
 

 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS  
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.  
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES  
FOR SOME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
 
 
AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS  
NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE NOSE OF VERY MOIST AIR AS  
OBSERVED BY TOTAL BLENDED PWAT PRODUCTS/RAP MESOANALYSIS WAS JUST  
NOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TX THIS  
AFTERNOON. WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY THE OH RIVER  
VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE TX  
COAST...ADDITIONAL LOBES OF VORTICITY, FAIRLY MOIST AIR AND  
SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE EASTERN PORTIONS  
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
EXPECTED, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY  
OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN. ELSEWHERE, SLIGHTLY  
LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING,  
OUTSIDE OF DAYTIME HEATING, TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
FOR TONIGHT---MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECAY WITH THE LOSS  
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE COULD BE SOME REMNANT LIFT ALONG OLD  
OUTFLOW AND/OR WEAK ASCENT WITH MEAGER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBES, BUT  
THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT  
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS  
NIGHTS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE EAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, THERE MAY BE SOME VERY  
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX, BUT WITH  
VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 5 MILES, I'VE NOT  
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 
FOR MONDAY---MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW PERTURBATIONS WILL  
CONTINUE IN THE GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW. WITH THE MOIST  
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONLY NEED TO BE AIDED  
BY MODEST ASCENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION. THAT BEING  
SAID, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE A BIT TOO  
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. MOST CAMS,  
MOST NOTABLY THE TTU WRF, OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE REALISTIC SOLUTIONS  
AND AS A RESULT, I'LL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS  
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. THE BETTER RAIN  
CHANCES WILL GENERALLY FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COMANCHE TO WACO  
TO CENTERVILLE LINE ON MONDAY CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE MID-  
LEVEL VORT MAX. WHILE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS TO THE  
NORTH, IT APPEARS THAT THE OH RIVER VALLEY RIDGE WILL SLIDE  
TOWARDS THE WEST AND SOUTH. THIS MAY INDUCE SUBSIDENCE RESULTING  
IN A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
FOR TUESDAY---RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH MORE  
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT  
WITH REPOSITIONING THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE OZARKS/CENTRAL PLAINS  
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS  
SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS CENTRAL TX. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TOWARDS THE MID-90S ON TUESDAY ACROSS  
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER  
90S ELSEWHERE (DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN).  
 

 
   
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
 
 
FOR WEDNESDAY---I'VE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE  
AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE  
APPEARS TO BE SMALLEST. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY  
BE RE-VISITED IN THE FUTURE AS MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SUBTLE TREND OF  
WEAKENING THE RIDGE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IF THESE  
TRENDS CONTINUE, HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MAY BE WARRANTED. OTHERWISE,  
WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE HEAT SHOULD RETURN TO NEARLY ALL OF NORTH AND  
CENTRAL TX.  
 
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY---A FAIRLY DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL SLIDE  
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EFFECTIVELY  
END THE INFLUENCE OF THE DWINDLING RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH  
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF  
THE TROUGH, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN,  
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20 ON THURSDAY. THE GFS IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE  
WITH REGARDS TO BUILDING A LARGE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ON  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS SOLUTION SEEMS A BIT  
AGGRESSIVE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE  
12 UTC ECMWF. ULTIMATELY, THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY.  
 
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY---IT APPEARS THAT THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL  
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE OZARKS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY,  
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE  
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH REGARDS TO  
HOW QUICKLY IT BUILDS THE RIDGE. ULTIMATELY, THIS MEANS THAT THE  
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND, IF THE ECMWF IS TO BE  
BELIEVED. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY  
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS SOLUTION WITH A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE H5 HIGH  
AND THUS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS  
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MULTITUDE OF  
OUTDOOR EVENTS AND FESTIVITIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  
 
24-BAIN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 93 74 93 76 / 30 20 10 20 10  
WACO 73 90 72 92 74 / 30 40 20 20 10  
PARIS 72 93 72 93 73 / 40 20 10 20 10  
DENTON 73 92 72 93 73 / 30 20 10 20 10  
MCKINNEY 73 92 72 93 74 / 30 20 10 20 10  
DALLAS 75 93 76 93 77 / 30 20 10 20 10  
TERRELL 73 91 74 94 74 / 40 20 10 20 10  
CORSICANA 74 90 74 93 75 / 40 30 20 20 10  
TEMPLE 72 89 71 91 73 / 30 40 30 30 20  
MINERAL WELLS 72 90 71 92 72 / 20 30 10 20 10  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
58/90  
 
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