106
FXUS64 KFWD 091125 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
AVIATION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
CLEARING ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SKC WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING
BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION. INCREASING HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
82/JLD
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 354 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY SOME HEATING FROM THE SUN AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A GUSTY NORTH WIND THIS MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT
WIND...DRY AIR...AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING INTO THE 20S.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER BAJA. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY ELEVATED.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WITH FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL
THICKNESSES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS TEXAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
WARM WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL BE
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE GOOD...THE IMPACTS FROM THE
SNOW MAY NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WE STILL EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 3 INCHES...OF SLUSHY/WET SNOW ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS
COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FREEZES...
ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER WATCH DUE TO THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WATCH IF NEW
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH BRIEF RIDGING
ALOFT AND SOME SUN. SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP PRECIP AS ALL RAIN AND END
THE PRECIP BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
79
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 42 27 46 32 37 / 5 5 10 30 80
WACO, TX 46 28 45 32 37 / 5 5 20 30 80
PARIS, TX 41 24 43 28 39 / 5 5 10 20 60
DENTON, TX 40 23 44 31 37 / 5 5 10 30 80
MCKINNEY, TX 42 27 45 30 37 / 5 5 10 30 70
DALLAS, TX 43 31 44 34 39 / 5 5 10 30 80
TERRELL, TX 44 28 45 30 37 / 5 5 10 20 80
CORSICANA, TX 45 27 46 32 38 / 5 5 10 30 80
TEMPLE, TX 45 29 44 33 38 / 5 5 20 30 80
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
82/79
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page