490  
FXUS64 KFWD 291928  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
228 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE DRY AND MILD  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE  
REGION AND THE GULF REMAINS CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE  
50S AND HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE  
TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE  
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS  
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.  
 
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES  
OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A DRYLINE APPROACHES FROM  
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  
STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER, IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE HOW FAR  
EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX, HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE  
AND HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE. THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT  
TO THE WEST AFTER SUNSET BUT A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL  
OVERTAKE IT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY. LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT  
FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE EXTENDED MODELS  
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SO  
FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. ONCE THE  
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL  
FILTER INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
79  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
/ISSUED 1243 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/  
/18Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT  
NORTH FLOW AND ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. NO SIGNIFICANT  
AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 57 78 60 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 0  
WACO 54 79 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 0  
PARIS 53 79 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0  
DENTON 52 77 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MCKINNEY 53 77 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 0  
DALLAS 57 79 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TERRELL 54 79 56 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 0  
CORSICANA 55 78 58 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMPLE 54 79 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MINERAL WELLS 51 77 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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