769
FXUS64 KFWD 071717 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
AVIATION
/18Z TAFS/
TODAY...CIGS IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10-15 KTS.
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL RETURN BY 08Z-10Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST 10 KTS
OR LESS.
SUNDAY...CIGS IMPROVING INTO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND VFR AFTER
18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
UPDATE
WILL BE SENDING OUT A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO UPDATE THE STRATUS
COVERAGE AND ADJUST HIGHS A BIT TODAY LOWERING TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WHERE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HRS. IN GENERAL...STRATUS OVER NORTH TX HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF LIFTING
AND SCATTERING OUT OVER THE PAST HR. THE METROPLEX WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY IF NOT CLEAR SKIES AFTER NOON...AND THEN
AREAS SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S QUICKLY
AFTER CLOUD COVER ERODES.
CAVANAUGH
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP NORTHWARD...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS A PARIS TO DENTON TO COMANCHE LINE BY MID
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY NOON...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING ADDITIONAL GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE HAMPERED BY TROPICAL STORM IDA AND A NON TROPICAL SURFACE
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...AND THUS DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE BOTTLED UP.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND DEGREE OF LIFT WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS BASED ON THE
LIMITED MOISTURE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THESE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT OR
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WORDED
FORECAST MONDAY DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF LIFTING MECHANISMS.
IDA IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A LARGE NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
MID WEEK...WITH OUR WINDS IN NORTH TEXAS GRADUALLY BECOMING
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO CHANGING PRESSURE PATTERN. HARD TO CALL
IT A COLD FRONT SINCE THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE GRADUAL...BUT SOME
COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY NICE WEATHER.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS/WINDS BY FRIDAY
WITH SOME LOW POPS SATURDAY.
TR.92
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 58 74 59 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
WACO, TX 78 58 75 60 77 / 0 5 30 30 10
PARIS, TX 77 52 72 56 75 / 0 5 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 79 55 74 57 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 77 53 73 57 76 / 0 5 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 78 58 75 60 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
TERRELL, TX 77 57 74 59 76 / 0 5 20 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 58 73 59 78 / 0 5 30 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 78 59 74 59 78 / 0 5 30 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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