413  
FXUS64 KFWD 300019 AAA  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
719 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
/00Z TAFS/  
 
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS HAVE  
ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. WITH LITTLE DAYLIGHT  
REMAINING, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON APPROACHING OUTFLOW LOOKS  
UNLIKELY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO NORTHWEST ARRIVALS ARE  
EXPECTED, AND THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF METROPLEX TAF  
SITES. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DAYTIME  
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY.  
 
THERE IS NOW A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE  
METROPLEX, WITHIN WHICH THE COMMERCIAL AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN IN  
SOUTH FLOW. WACO HAS BEEN SLOWER TO VEER, BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL  
BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
25  
 

 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/  
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS, DRIER AND  
COOLER AIR HAS INFILTRATED THE REGION AND CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY  
MORE PLEASANT TODAY. SOME WEAK CONVECTION POPPED UP WEST AND  
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA EARLIER TODAY WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY  
RESIDES, BUT WHAT'S LEFT OF THIS ACTIVITY NEAR VERNON SHOULD  
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. CLEAR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD  
PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S  
FOR LOWS. ANOTHER VERY WARM, SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON  
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL  
RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WHICH RAISES  
THE CONCERN THAT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL IMPACT  
THIS REGION. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN JUNE IS NOTORIOUS  
FOR BRINGING SURPRISE CONVECTIVE EVENTS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN  
THE MODELS FORECAST, SO CERTAINLY IT IS SOMETHING THAT WARRANTS  
OUR ATTENTION. FOR TONIGHT IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL TEND TO  
ORIGINATE TOO FAR NORTH TO SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR CWA.  
IN ADDITION THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOCATION OF THE LOW  
LEVEL JET SUGGESTS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS  
NORTHWEST TEXAS WOULD BE THE FAVORED ZONE FOR ANY LONG-LIVED  
SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY MORNING.  
 
HOWEVER, ON THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE FRINGE OF THE UPPER  
HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND REACH OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN  
SHOWING RISING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING  
THE DAY (AN INDICATION OF LIFT ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
CONVERGENCE). THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THURSDAY  
EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT,  
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANDER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND IMPACT  
THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE INSTABILITY  
OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE RECENT INTRUSION OF DRIER  
CONTINENTAL AIR AS WELL AS A LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING, DO NOT  
EXPECT ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZED MCS OR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER  
TO SURVIVE OR IMPACT THE CWA. INSTEAD THIS WOULD BE MORE ELEVATED  
SHOWER/STORM TYPE ACTIVITY THAT DISSIPATES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
FRIDAY MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE  
MORNING HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL ENSURE  
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE CWA ON  
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ANOTHER DEGREE  
OR TWO. HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO  
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS  
TO INCREASE. WHILE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL CERTAINLY KEEP  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER (AND NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS), IT WILL  
LIMIT HOW HOT WE WILL GET DURING THE DAY AS WELL. UPPER 90S TO  
NEAR 100 ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT DFW AND WACO MAY  
NOT NOTCH THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.  
REGARDLESS, THESE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE  
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES ALSO  
REACHING 105 SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY REQUIRE HEAT  
ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED.  
 
THERE IS ONE SHOT OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST  
THAT LOOKS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE 4TH OF JULY. THE UPPER  
RIDGE WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN QUITE A BIT BY SUNDAY AS THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE  
WEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY  
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL  
GUIDANCE IS A BIT SPREAD ON THE PROSPECTS FOR RAINFALL, WITH THE  
GFS AND CANADIAN THE WETTEST, SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING  
TO NEAR 2.3 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND RESULTING IN SOME CLUSTERS OF  
INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS DRIER, HOWEVER  
ITS LATEST RUN DID TREND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRONGER LIKE THE  
GFS AND HAS BROUGHT QPF INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY  
MORNING. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, BUT HAVE SHOWED A 20%  
CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OVER GENERALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF  
THE REGION. AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, DRY WEATHER  
LOOKS TO PREVAIL FOR QUITE SOME TIME AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOME  
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.  
 
TR.92  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 97 78 97 78 / 0 5 10 10 5  
WACO 73 96 75 96 75 / 0 0 5 10 5  
PARIS 71 95 72 95 73 / 0 10 20 10 5  
DENTON 72 96 73 95 75 / 0 10 20 10 5  
MCKINNEY 72 95 74 95 75 / 0 10 20 10 5  
DALLAS 77 97 79 97 79 / 0 5 10 10 5  
TERRELL 74 95 74 96 75 / 0 5 10 10 5  
CORSICANA 75 97 76 97 75 / 0 0 10 10 5  
TEMPLE 73 95 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 5 5  
MINERAL WELLS 70 96 71 96 73 / 5 5 10 5 5  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
25/05  
 
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