884  
FXUS64 KFWD 231128  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
528 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
/12Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS  
BECOMING SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE  
TO 15 TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 337 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017/  
THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS  
THE REGION, ALONG WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AND  
DRIER AIR AS FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES ZIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
CONUS.  
 
TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN VEERING  
SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON. SOME SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL OCCUR OUT  
WEST, BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS  
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE  
INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING  
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS  
FALL, THERE COULD BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT  
SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ATHENS TO CAMERON LINE. HOWEVER, FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WILL BE A VERY THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH  
JUST ENOUGH FLOW OFF THE DECK TO KEEP THINGS MIXED UP. AS A  
RESULT, HAVE FORGONE ANY MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME.  
 
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS  
PARTS OF KANSAS. WIND FIELDS WILL RESPOND, WITH 850 MB WIND SPEEDS  
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KTS. DECENT DIABATIC HEATING, TEMPERED  
ONLY BY SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER, SHOULD ALLOW US TO MIX UP INTO SOME  
OF THIS FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RESULT WILL BE A  
VERY WARM DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY SOARING INTO THE MIDDLE  
AND EVEN UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH GUSTY  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS--POTENTIALLY EVEN APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY  
CRITERIA ACROSS OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. A DRYLINE WILL  
ADDITIONALLY MIX EASTWARD, RESULTING IN VERY LOW AFTERNOON  
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT-RANGE WEST OF  
I-35. THIS LOW MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS AND  
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD WITH  
AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT.  
 
THIS AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE  
REGION TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL  
REMAIN TOO PALTRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT,  
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS JUST SOUTH AND  
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  
 
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE  
MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES--ACTUALLY NEAR-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE PRETTY CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES  
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND MID 30S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL SLIDE  
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, BUT ONCE AGAIN,  
MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF  
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.  
 
CARLAW  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 49 76 43 57 / 0 0 5 5 5  
WACO 70 48 78 42 60 / 0 0 5 5 5  
PARIS 61 45 72 43 53 / 0 0 5 5 5  
DENTON 65 47 74 39 54 / 0 0 5 5 5  
MCKINNEY 63 46 73 41 55 / 0 0 5 5 5  
DALLAS 68 50 75 44 57 / 0 0 5 5 5  
TERRELL 64 47 74 43 57 / 0 0 5 5 5  
CORSICANA 67 49 77 44 59 / 0 0 5 5 5  
TEMPLE 72 49 77 43 61 / 0 0 5 5 5  
MINERAL WELLS 71 48 74 38 56 / 0 0 5 5 5  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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