694  
FXUS64 KFWD 280939  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
439 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN, STORMS, AND SEVERE WEATHER STARTS TODAY  
AND INCREASES TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ENCROACHING ON  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE STEADY PROGRESS EAST, MOVING  
INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY, THE  
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY'S FRONT ARE STALLED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL  
TEXAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY IN  
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW  
MEXICO. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH, 60S DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS, AND A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN TO OUR  
WEST. IT DOESN'T APPEAR ANYTHING WILL IMPEDE THE NORTHWARD  
ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO MOVE  
NORTH AND REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING, IT COULD BE AN AREA OF INCREASED TORNADIC POTENTIAL  
IF STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY, WE THINK  
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON,  
BUT ITS POSITION WILL BE ONE TO WATCH. HERE'S HOW WE ANTICIPATE  
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL EVOLVE TODAY AND TONIGHT...  
 
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH TODAY, ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY  
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THE CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE BEST LIFT WILL STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR  
WEST. THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ON THE  
DRYLINE TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN  
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,  
WE MAY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, AS SOME  
LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THESE STORMS  
COULD BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND  
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING  
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS MAY RESULT IN A FLASH  
FLOOD THREAT.  
 
WHILE THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING NORTH OF  
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST. THIS NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE.  
INITIALLY THIS LINE MAY BE SEVERE, BUT MAY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES  
EAST. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD AND HAIL WILL ALSO  
BE A THREAT. QLCS TORNADOES ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE, AND  
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE  
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IN THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION, BUT UNFORTUNATELY WE DON'T  
LOOK TO BE DONE FOR THE DAY. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE  
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW  
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDING PLENTY  
OF LIFT, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE  
DRYLINE, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS  
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL  
RECOVER FROM THE EARLIER RAINS, AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WOULD  
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE  
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THE LOCATION  
OF THE DRYLINE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED,  
SO LEFT POPS ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO THE I-35  
CORRIDOR. ALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA  
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
ONE LAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS  
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME  
MODELS SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES NEAR THE RED RIVER. IF THIS HAPPENS, THESE  
STORMS COULD POSSIBLY BE ELEVATED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL.  
FOR NOW, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THIS POTENTIAL, AND REASSESS  
THIS THREAT AS MORE HI-RES GUIDANCE COMES INTO THIS TIME WINDOW.  
 
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY MAKING FOR A  
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL  
SYSTEM. THURSDAY'S FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED DEEP INTO THE GULF OF  
MEXICO BUT SOME MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. ANOTHER  
DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN TO OUR WEST AND MOST MODELS PLACE THIS  
DRYLINE NOT TOO FAR WEST OF OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS  
TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN NEW MEXICO WITH HEIGHT  
FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF  
MOISTURE RETURN (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S), THE MODELS  
ARE ATTEMPTING TO CONVECT STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR WESTERN  
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ON  
SATURDAY WITH 20-30 PERCENT RANGING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF  
INSTABILITY NEAR THE DRYLINE IS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE LIMITED  
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN BUT AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE WEATHER RISK  
MAY EXIST FOR NOW. SO FAR, MOST THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE  
MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH PROFILES OF TALL, SKINNY CAPE. SHEAR  
VALUES OVER 40 KTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  
 
THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN MORE RAIN  
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT  
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH, BUT MOST TRACK THE SYSTEM THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.  
IN RESPONSE TO THIS, THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TEXAS  
COAST AND TRACKS EAST. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE BEST RAINS ACROSS  
CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON THE SET-UP, IT'S  
POSSIBLE ANOTHER SQUALL LINE MAY TRACK ACROSS THIS REGION ON  
SUNDAY AS STORMS DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE IN THE HILL COUNTRY.  
AGAIN, SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE A THREAT, AND WE WILL FURTHER  
REFINE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. AREAS  
TO THE NORTH WON'T NECESSARILY COMPLETELY MISS OUT ON ALL THE  
RAIN, BUT THE COVERAGE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS, AND HAVE THE  
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES ON SUNDAY.  
 
UNFORTUNATELY THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO BE THE END OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
TRAIN AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS  
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
JLDUNN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
/ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017/  
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED JUST SOUTH OF A  
KSJT-KTPL-KTYR LINE AS OF 04Z WILL START TO LIFT BACK TO THE  
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL  
GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT  
LIFTS NORTHWARD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THOUGH SOME 3500-4000  
FEET CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA 07-09Z. CEILINGS WILL  
CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS  
BY 12Z AND IFR CEILINGS BY 15Z. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS  
POSSIBLE FROM 15Z THROUGH 21Z. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO  
NEAR THE RED RIVER, CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BUT ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE LATE  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD 06Z.  
 
AT WACO...VFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED AS OF 04Z AND EXPECT  
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR 07-09Z. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER  
TO IFR BY 11Z WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG POSSIBLE. SOME LIFR CONDITIONS  
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO  
MVFR BY 18Z AS THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD  
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 21Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO  
INCLUDE IN THE WACO TAF AT THIS TIME. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF  
PERIOD, SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE WACO TAF STARTING AT 15Z.  
 
58  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN, STORMS, AND SEVERE WEATHER STARTS TODAY  
AND INCREASES TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ENCROACHING ON  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE STEADY PROGRESS EAST, MOVING  
INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY, THE  
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY'S FRONT ARE STALLED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL  
TEXAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY IN  
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW  
MEXICO. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH, 60S DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS, AND A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN TO OUR  
WEST. IT DOESN'T APPEAR ANYTHING WILL IMPEDE THE NORTHWARD  
ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO MOVE  
NORTH AND REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING, IT COULD BE AN AREA OF INCREASED TORNADIC POTENTIAL  
IF STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY, WE THINK  
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON,  
BUT ITS POSITION WILL BE ONE TO WATCH. HERE'S HOW WE ANTICIPATE  
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL EVOLVE TODAY AND TONIGHT...  
 
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH TODAY, ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY  
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THE CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE BEST LIFT WILL STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR  
WEST. THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ON THE  
DRYLINE TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN  
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,  
WE MAY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, AS SOME  
LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THESE STORMS  
COULD BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND  
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING  
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS MAY RESULT IN A FLASH  
FLOOD THREAT.  
 
WHILE THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING NORTH OF  
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST. THIS NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE.  
INITIALLY THIS LINE MAY BE SEVERE, BUT MAY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES  
EAST. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD AND HAIL WILL ALSO  
BE A THREAT. QLCS TORNADOES ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE, AND  
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE  
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IN THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION, BUT UNFORTUNATELY WE DON'T  
LOOK TO BE DONE FOR THE DAY. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE  
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW  
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDING PLENTY  
OF LIFT, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE  
DRYLINE, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS  
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL  
RECOVER FROM THE EARLIER RAINS, AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WOULD  
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE  
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THE LOCATION  
OF THE DRYLINE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED,  
SO LEFT POPS ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO THE I-35  
CORRIDOR. ALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA  
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
ONE LAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS  
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME  
MODELS SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES NEAR THE RED RIVER. IF THIS HAPPENS, THESE  
STORMS COULD POSSIBLY BE ELEVATED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL.  
FOR NOW, WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THIS POTENTIAL, AND REASSESS  
THIS THREAT AS MORE HI-RES GUIDANCE COMES INTO THIS TIME WINDOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
MORE INFORMATION/DISCUSSION COMING SOON.  
 
JLDUNN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 65 80 55 68 / 20 100 50 20 20  
WACO 82 65 80 56 72 / 20 100 50 10 5  
PARIS 77 64 74 56 65 / 20 80 70 30 20  
DENTON 76 63 80 52 66 / 30 100 50 20 20  
MCKINNEY 77 65 77 54 66 / 20 100 50 20 20  
DALLAS 80 66 80 56 68 / 20 100 50 20 20  
TERRELL 81 66 78 56 68 / 20 100 60 30 20  
CORSICANA 83 66 77 57 70 / 20 90 60 20 10  
TEMPLE 82 64 81 57 73 / 20 90 50 10 5  
MINERAL WELLS 78 57 80 50 69 / 50 100 20 20 10  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
90/82  
 
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