486  
FXUS64 KFWD 210000  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
600 PM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
/00Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
WINDS. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS  
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS IS SPREADING NORTHEAST, BUT SHOULD  
GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA DURING THE  
DAY TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/ISSUED 320 PM CST MON NOV 20 2017/  
/TONIGHT/  
 
TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH A SLIGHT BREEZE. WITHIN CONTINUED  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION,  
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT  
ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL AT THE  
SURFACE, BUT A SOUTHWEST 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL OCCUR AROUND  
THE H925 LEVEL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT,  
SO THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE THE SURFACE, BUT THEY WILL  
ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE H925-850 LAYER.  
 
THE SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME  
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40S ACROSS  
MOST OF THE REGION BY 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS WILL AID IN  
THE WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND AROUND 50 DEGREES.  
SOME LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR WITH THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS  
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT IT'S MORE LIKELY WE WILL SEE A LOW  
CLOUD DECK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IN  
ADDITION, A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN AN AREA FROM CAMERON TO  
PALESTINE, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE WORDED  
FORECAST.  
 
JLDUNN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 320 PM CST MON NOV 20 2017/  
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING NEAR BAJA WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH MIDWEEK,  
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ABOVE TEXAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A  
CONSISTENT SUPPLY OF AUTUMN COLD FRONTS, THE NEXT OF WHICH WILL  
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO OUR WARMING TREND. THE  
PREVIOUS FRONT ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY SCOURED THE GULF, AND THE  
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF TUESDAY'S FRONT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT  
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME  
POSTFRONTAL RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE  
AND THE FLOW ABOVE THE FRONTAL LAYER DOESN'T SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS.  
AS A RESULT, WE'LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.  
 
A CHILLY NORTH WIND WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN  
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 30S AND 40S. HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE DENSE  
ENOUGH TO LIMIT SUNSHINE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY TRANSIT THE  
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WHERE ITS AXIS COINCIDES WITH THE  
PREDAWN HOURS, LOW-LYING SPOTS MAY SEE BRIEF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL DEAMPLIFY LATE IN THE WEEK AS A  
POTENT SHORTWAVE RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, BUT  
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE OUR HEADS. THIS COULD HELP A WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THANKSGIVING DAY, BUT  
EVEN IF IT WERE TO INVADE, IT SHOULDN'T SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT  
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG  
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE GREATER  
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE WEST OF THE I-35  
CORRIDOR. WHILE THIS MAY APPEAR UNUSUALLY WARM FOR THANKSGIVING,  
CENTRAL TEXAS SEES AT LEAST 70F ON TURKEY DAY MORE THAN 40% OF THE  
TIME. IN THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA, 70S OR 80S OCCUR ON  
THANKSGIVING ALMOST A THIRD OF THE TIME.  
 
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY, BUT MILD TEMPERATURES  
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL  
SLIDE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL  
CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH THE OCCASIONAL FRONT WILL REMIND US OF THE  
SEASON, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
ARE PROJECTED TO DOMINATE INTO EARLY DECEMBER.  
 
25  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 68 42 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 0  
WACO 48 72 44 61 37 / 5 0 10 0 0  
PARIS 41 65 38 55 35 / 5 0 0 0 0  
DENTON 44 67 37 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MCKINNEY 44 67 39 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 0  
DALLAS 49 68 42 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TERRELL 45 68 41 58 36 / 5 0 5 0 0  
CORSICANA 46 70 44 59 38 / 5 0 10 0 0  
TEMPLE 47 72 44 62 38 / 5 0 10 0 0  
MINERAL WELLS 42 68 38 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page