654  
FXUS64 KFWD 191144 AAA  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
544 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
/12Z TAFS/  
 
CEILINGS ARE A VARIABLE MESS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT  
ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL THE TAF AIRPORTS BY  
12-13Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT  
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY THIS EVENING. IF CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TODAY, A RETURN  
TO MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BY 03Z.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH FROM 19-23Z. A BREAK IN THE RAIN  
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF AIRPORTS THIS EVENING, BUT IT  
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THAT SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS  
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF THE  
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING MAY BE SEVERE BUT WILL BE  
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES.  
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE ONE OR MORE OF THESE SEVERE STORMS COULD  
APPROACH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CARRY  
TSRA FROM 06-10Z WITH SHRA BETWEEN 10-15Z. THE LEADING EDGE OF  
THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MAY BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LINE OF STORMS,  
POSSIBLY STRONG OR SEVERE, THAT FORMS FROM EARLIER STORMS TO THE  
WEST. EXPECT IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS RAINY PERIOD WITH  
MVFR CIGS LIKELY CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN HAS  
MOVED EAST.  
 
JLDUNN  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 326 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017/  
A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-20 AREA  
CURRENTLY SEPARATES COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM DEEPER  
MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT  
NORTH THIS MORNING AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND LEE  
SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES. THIS WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE  
TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE  
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER, WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE  
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.  
 
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MOIST AIR ADVECTION WHEN COMBINED  
WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE MOVE  
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP  
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST  
AREA AS MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS.  
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH 50  
KT OF BULK SHEAR IN PLACE, WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW  
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE  
THE PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. DEEP  
LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW MEANS THAT STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE  
NORTH-NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY WEST OF THE I-35  
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
 
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ARRIVE 9PM TO MIDNIGHT AS THE  
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. HIGH-RES MODEL  
SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAPID STORM  
DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.  
A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST DURING THESE LATE EVENING HOURS  
THAT MAY ALLOW FOR INDIVIDUAL CELLS CONTAINING ROTATING UPDRAFTS,  
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST  
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A  
LINEAR MCS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE  
AND A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. INDIVIDUAL CELLS EMBEDDED IN  
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE THE ENTIRE  
LINE SHIFTS STEADILY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. TRAINING STORMS WILL  
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS, BUT  
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT A HIGHER-END  
FLOOD THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED  
WIND DAMAGE DUE TO BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE.  
 
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY  
MORNING, WITH THE BACK EDGE OF LINGERING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION  
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SPLIT MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN HALF RACING OFF TO THE  
NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE AND THE SOUTHERN HALF DROPPING  
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF AS A CUT-OFF LOW. THIS WILL  
LEAVE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE  
RIDGE, KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER  
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH WILL SEND A COLD  
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL COOL THINGS TO NEAR-  
NORMAL, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT MONDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE  
AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION.  
 
30  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 61 73 52 76 / 20 60 30 10 5  
WACO 75 60 72 51 75 / 20 70 40 10 5  
PARIS 74 61 69 53 73 / 20 70 50 10 10  
DENTON 72 59 73 49 75 / 30 60 30 10 5  
MCKINNEY 73 61 72 51 74 / 20 70 30 10 10  
DALLAS 74 62 73 53 76 / 20 70 30 10 10  
TERRELL 77 62 71 53 74 / 20 80 40 10 10  
CORSICANA 77 62 71 54 74 / 20 80 50 10 10  
TEMPLE 75 60 72 52 76 / 30 70 40 10 5  
MINERAL WELLS 72 56 75 48 76 / 40 60 20 5 5  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
82/30  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page