206  
FXUS64 KFWD 260814  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
314 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/  
 
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL  
ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL  
RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A SECOND COMPACT UPPER  
LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.  
 
POCKETS OF VERY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT  
THE BREEZY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY FROM FALLING TOO  
FAR. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS, HOWEVER. FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN  
SHELTERED/LOW-LYING AREAS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE  
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS MAY GRAZE  
EASTERN PARTS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY  
SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. WITH LARGE  
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THAT RESULTED IN  
WEDNESDAY'S RAIN, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
DAYTIME HOURS.  
 
THE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL  
AMPLIFY AND DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WHILE LOW LEVELS ARE MOISTURE  
STARVED COURTESY OF THE RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION, MID AND UPPER  
LEVELS WILL MOISTEN AND A DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS WILL INVADE THE AREA  
TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. LAPSE RATES ALSO STEEPEN AND GIVEN THE  
PRESENCE OF DECENT LIFT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME HIGH-BASED  
CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY FORMS OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVES SOUTHWARD  
INTO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME, IT'S UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT  
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN  
FACT, IT'S EVEN POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF WHAT DEVELOPS MAY NOT  
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW I'LL  
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST  
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF PALESTINE TO CLEBURNE  
TO GRAHAM LINE.  
 
24  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
/FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND ARE SHAPING UP TO BE PRETTY NICE  
WITH NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY  
MORNING WILL START OFF WITH SOME PASSING CLOUD COVER BEHIND  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, BUT SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES  
WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGING  
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND GULF MOISTURE WILL  
BEGIN A STEADY TRANSITION NORTHWARD.  
 
ON SUNDAY A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND  
WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. AS IT DOES, A SECOND  
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST  
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY LARGE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE  
WESTERN U.S. AS THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH TUESDAY, WE'LL SEE  
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL HELP  
STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL ACCELERATE  
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION. AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF A DEEP  
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER MUCH OF TEXAS FEATURING STEEP LAPSE  
RATES AND A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD OCCUR BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THAT THE BEST  
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL STILL BE TIED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW OVER  
THE SOUTHWEST U.S., WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE DAYS  
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WE'LL LIKELY HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD  
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AND PERHAPS A  
FEW SHOWERS BENEATH THE STRONG CAP. THE DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE  
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT GIVEN THE  
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, THE  
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE  
PLAINS AND THIS MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BETTER COVERAGE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS, AS THESE SLOWER MOVING UPPER  
LOWS CAN OFTEN TAKE LONGER TO EJECT EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY  
FORECAST. IN ADDITION, IT APPEARS THAT MORE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS  
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
 
   
AVIATION
 
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018/  
/06Z TAFS/  
 
VFR WITH LIGHT NORTH FLOW.  
 
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAINY DAY HAS MOVED INTO THE  
ARK-LA-TEX, TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. SOME WRAP-AROUND  
STRATOCU ARE AS CLOSE AS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST  
TEXAS, BUT THESE PATCHY VFR CEILINGS WILL GET NO CLOSER AS THEY  
TOO SHIFT EAST WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE BAND OF CIRRUS  
STRETCHING FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SKIRT  
NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY, BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FREE  
OF CLOUDS.  
 
WINDS DIMINISHED DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AND ALTHOUGH THEY'VE  
TAKEN ON AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS  
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT  
WINDS, AND WET GROUND MIGHT SUGGEST SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY  
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THE VIGOROUS NORTH WINDS ABOVE  
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DISRUPT THE RADIATIONAL  
COOLING PROCESS. AND WITH ONLY SCANT RAINFALL AT OUR TAF SITES,  
THERE IS A NEGLIGIBLE CONTRIBUTION FROM GROUND MOISTURE. AS A  
RESULT, GROUND FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  
 
25  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 55 77 52 81 / 0 20 0 0 0  
WACO 76 50 79 50 82 / 0 10 0 0 0  
PARIS 69 51 73 48 77 / 0 20 0 0 0  
DENTON 75 50 76 47 79 / 0 20 0 0 0  
MCKINNEY 73 50 76 48 79 / 0 20 0 0 0  
DALLAS 75 56 78 54 81 / 0 20 0 0 0  
TERRELL 73 52 77 50 80 / 0 20 0 0 0  
CORSICANA 74 52 79 52 81 / 0 20 0 0 0  
TEMPLE 76 50 80 51 81 / 0 10 0 0 0  
MINERAL WELLS 76 51 77 46 81 / 0 20 0 0 0  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
24/91  
 
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