827  
FXUS64 KFWD 230811  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
311 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/  
 
AN MCS MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT IS PUSHING A FAST MOVING  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A JACKSBORO TO EMORY LINE EARLY THIS  
MORNING BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS COMPLEX IS REMAINING NORTH OF THE  
RED RIVER. WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLS TODAY MAY HAVE  
IMPLICATIONS ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS  
NOT TRACKING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL, BUT BASED ON ITS SPEED,  
BELIEVE THIS BOUNDARY MAY REACH THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS BEFORE  
STALLING...AND IT MAY POSSIBLY ADVANCE SOUTH OF THAT. WE WILL HAVE  
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BOUNDARY BUT AT THIS TIME I BELIEVE THE  
BOUNDARY WILL FADE OUT AND/OR RETREAT NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AS  
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE  
CYCLONE TO OUR WEST.  
 
BREEZY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH HOT  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S IN THE EAST TO AROUND 103  
DEGREES IN THE WEST. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE HEAT STRESS  
AGAIN AND WILL FOREGO ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HEAT  
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE UP TO 106 DEGREES TODAY AND TOMORROW AT  
SCATTERED LOCATIONS, BUT CALCULATIONS OF WET BULB GLOBE  
TEMPERATURES, WHICH TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE WIND FACTOR, ARE  
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECOMMENDED VALUES. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL  
BE A HOT DAY WHERE OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS CAN BE OVERCOME BY THE HEAT  
IN THE DIRECT SUNLIGHT IF THEY DO NOT TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT  
THEMSELVES.  
 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING, AS THE CAP WEAKENS NEAR A  
STALLED FRONT JUST OUTSIDE OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER, THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT  
IN HIGH INSTABILITY NEARING 3000-4000 J/KG. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT THESE STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX THAT TRAVELS  
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A SOUTHEASTWARD  
MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AND HAVE HEDGED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST  
THAN GUIDANCE. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE STRONGER TODAY WITH 0-6 KM  
VALUES AROUND 40 KTS, SUPPORTING A SEVERE STORM THREAT. INITIALLY,  
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT AS  
THE STORMS MERGE INTO A COMPLEX, THE THREAT WILL LARGELY BECOME  
DAMAGING WINDS. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST OUTSIDE OF OUR  
AREA DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STALLED FRONT IS AND STORMS INITIATE,  
BUT THE COMPLEX SHOULD BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN RESULTING IN A  
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, HAVE THE  
HIGHEST POPS UP TO 50% WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE COMPLEX WILL  
LIKELY HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK  
SUNDAY.  
 
JLDUNN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
/SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/  
 
MOST OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK  
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WANES AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IS  
ENCOUNTERED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ANY LINGERING  
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE  
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE  
MID AND UPPER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WITH TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ALONE YIELD  
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 105 IN SEVERAL SPOTS, BUT STRONG  
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX  
VALUES BY A COUPLE DEGREES.  
 
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS WITH  
A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO MISSOURI. A  
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND  
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
THOUGH THIS TIME IT WILL INITIATE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SATURDAY  
EVENING ACTIVITY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL ENTER OUR NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
OR MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING  
SEEMS PRETTY REMOTE RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL SYSTEM, AND THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA.  
WILL SHOW SOME BELOW-20 POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND FOREGO THE  
MENTION OF ANY WEATHER AT THIS TIME. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS SET FOR  
MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE SLOW-MOVING  
UPPER LOW, WITH BELOW-20 POPS AGAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE RED RIVER.  
THAT SAID, CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED EACH NIGHT, AND  
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MIGHT  
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF MODELS OR DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES  
TREND FARTHER SOUTH.  
 
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST AND  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. THE ONLY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH  
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE IF SEABREEZE SHOWERS REACH FAR ENOUGH INLAND.  
OTHERWISE, CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITHOUT  
THE BENEFIT OF SHORT-TERM RELIEF VIA THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL MCS.  
 
30  
 

 
 
   
AVIATION
 
/ISSUED 1210 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018/  
/06Z TAFS/  
 
METROPLEX: PREDAWN SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. WIND SHIFTS.  
CENTRAL TEXAS: MORNING STRATUS LIKELY. SOUTH FLOW.  
 
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORIGINATED ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR INTENSITY ON  
THEIR EASTWARD TREK ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF  
THE COMPLEX HAS MAINTAINED ACCESS TO SURFACE-BASED PARCELS AND HAS  
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS. WHILE THE TRAILING ELEVATED  
STORMS ARE NOW WELL BEHIND THE OUTFLOW WHICH IS RACING TOWARD THE  
RED RIVER, THE WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE ALSO  
EXCEEDING 50KTS. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE SOME MOMENTUM AS IT  
APPROACHES THE METROPLEX, ITS CURRENT INTENSITY IS IMPROVING  
CONFIDENCE IN A WIND SHIFT AROUND 0700Z. HEALTHY CROSS-BOUNDARY  
MOISTURE FLUX MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTFLOW  
NEAR/WITHIN THE METROPLEX DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, BUT THE  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BEYOND THE BONHAM CORNERPOST.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD OVERWHELM THE BOUNDARY AFTER DAYBREAK. THE  
MOISTURE-RICH LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SURGE STRATUS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS,  
BUT THE OUTFLOW SHOULD PREVENT THIS DECK FROM REACHING THE  
METROPLEX. ONCE THE SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO THE METROPLEX, SOME  
STRATOCU MAY BRIEFLY INVADE, BUT MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN TO  
THE SOUTH.  
 
DESPITE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY'S RETREAT TO THE NORTH, THE RAIN-  
COOLED AIR AND A LATE-SEASON FRONTAL SURGE WILL KEEP A RATHER  
SHARP BOUNDARY IN PLACE TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ACTIVITY THAT COULD  
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS. WITH THE 06Z PACKAGE, WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING A  
POTENTIAL TIME-FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DISRUPT OR DELAY THE LOW-LEVEL JET SATURDAY  
NIGHT. BUT IF THE CONVECTION ISN'T WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS, A MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS INTRUSION IS LIKELY SATURDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
25  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 100 78 98 78 97 / 10 40 10 5 5  
WACO 100 77 98 78 97 / 5 30 5 5 5  
PARIS 94 76 93 76 93 / 30 20 20 10 5  
DENTON 100 76 98 78 97 / 20 40 10 10 5  
MCKINNEY 98 77 96 76 94 / 20 30 20 5 5  
DALLAS 100 78 98 79 97 / 10 30 5 5 5  
TERRELL 97 76 98 78 97 / 10 20 5 5 5  
CORSICANA 99 77 96 77 95 / 5 20 10 5 5  
TEMPLE 98 76 97 77 95 / 5 30 10 5 5  
MINERAL WELLS 101 76 100 76 98 / 20 50 5 5 5  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
82/30  
 
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