322  
FXUS64 KFWD 230307 AAB  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
1007 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, LOWERED POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION  
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION AS TD CINDY MOVES FARTHER  
NORTHEAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS. THE CONVECTION WELL TO  
THE NORTHWEST IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS AGAIN NOT EXPECTED TO  
TRACK INTO OUR REGION. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST  
WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TOMORROW WILL  
FIRST BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT AND A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT  
FOR TOMORROW ALONG AND JUST OUTSIDE THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.  
THEN THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES  
SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  
 
JLDUNN  
 

 
 
   
AVIATION
 
/ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017/  
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL  
TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT LINGERING FEW/SCT  
STRATUS BELOW 3 KFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT LIGHT  
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE  
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE  
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO  
NORTH TX. HAVE INCLUDED SOME VCTS IN THE EXTENDED DFW TAF ALONG  
WITH A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY SCATTERED, SO PINNING DOWN THE MOST  
LIKELY TIME FOR THE INCLUSION OF TS WILL PROVE TO BE DIFFICULT.  
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,  
JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF WINDOW.  
 
-STALLEY  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/ISSUED 358 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017/  
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/  
 
T.D. CINDY CONTINUES TO CHURN UP THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY  
AT THIS HOUR WITH SOME ILL-DEFINED RAIN BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE  
WESTERN PERIPHERY. OUTSIDE OF THESE POCKETS OF RAIN, IMPACTS FROM  
CINDY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX HAVE BEEN QUITE MINIMAL. IN  
GENERAL, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM  
FORECAST PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID AS SUBSIDENCE  
ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY OVERSPREADS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.  
THEREAFTER, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS  
THE AREA WHICH APPEARS TO SUPPORT DECENT RAIN CHANCES, FOR AT  
LEAST THE NORTHERN ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX ON  
SATURDAY.  
 
FOR TONIGHT---RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE AS CINDY BECOMES  
ENVELOPED IN THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MUCH OF  
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN  
DEVOID OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. WHILE I CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE  
OF THUNDER OR TWO, I FEEL THE POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW AND I'LL  
SIMPLY CARRY A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEATHER GROUP DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, IT'LL BE A WARM AND VERY HUMID  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.  
 
FOR FRIDAY---A MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE  
PRECIPITATION-FREE AS HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH AND  
CENTRAL TX IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS  
SINKING AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH GENERALLY STAGNANT LOW LEVEL FLOW  
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OPPRESSIVE OUTDOOR CONDITIONS. FLOW WILL  
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF  
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES  
SOARING INTO THE 90S TO THE LOW 100S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 70S APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE HEAT  
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE "TECHNICALLY" NOT MEETING THE TWO DAY  
REQUIREMENT, GIVEN THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED OPPRESSIVE  
CONDITIONS, WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A ONE DAY HEAT ADVISORY  
FOR AREAS NEAR AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. BE SURE TO  
AVOID PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY AND REMAIN  
HYDRATED WITH PLENTY OF WATER.  
 
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING---THE CHANCE FOR MORE  
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME AS A COLD  
FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS GENERALLY  
WEAK, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG AND  
JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CLOSER TO THE 925-850MB  
FRONT). WHILE THE TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT  
IDEAL, THERE IS AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH  
HI-RES AND COARSER MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID, WILL STILL ERR ON THE  
CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 LATE FRIDAY AND INTO  
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT  
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN  
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.  
 
24-BAIN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 358 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017/  
/SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY ELEVATED,  
SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE  
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA  
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT, SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE  
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG  
THUNDERSTORM, RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE  
LIMITED ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE ONGOING  
CONVECTION. WE'LL SHOW A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH  
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.  
 
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE LITTLE  
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT AND EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH THE  
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, EACH  
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH  
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  
SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY AS  
A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PROGRESSIVELY  
DEEPER DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE WEEK  
ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS  
AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
80S. THESE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE  
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 98 72 84 72 / 0 10 60 60 20  
WACO 76 99 74 86 71 / 0 5 40 60 20  
PARIS 73 92 70 81 67 / 20 20 60 30 20  
DENTON 74 98 70 83 69 / 0 10 60 40 20  
MCKINNEY 75 98 70 82 69 / 5 10 60 40 20  
DALLAS 77 99 73 84 72 / 0 10 60 60 20  
TERRELL 74 95 72 83 70 / 10 10 60 50 20  
CORSICANA 73 95 73 84 70 / 10 10 50 60 20  
TEMPLE 75 100 75 88 71 / 0 5 30 50 20  
MINERAL WELLS 71 100 69 83 68 / 0 10 60 60 30  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ091>094-  
102>105-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.  
 

 
 

 
 
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