600  
FXUS64 KFWD 032141  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
341 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY WITH WATER  
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING A STEADY STREAM OF RICH MOISTURE TRAINING  
OVER THE STATE. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A  
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN  
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.  
HOWEVER, ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS  
COUNTIES, AND THIS IS WHERE WE ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL  
REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
 
ONE SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION TO THE  
NORTHEAST, AND THE BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO  
SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE  
ATMOSPHERE, COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE  
NORTH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. ALOFT, SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS  
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW.  
THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ADDITIONAL  
RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN HALF THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK  
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES AND THE ARRIVAL  
OF ANOTHER SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF  
INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL  
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT. SOME OF  
THE RAIN MAY EXPAND NORTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END SUNDAY MORNING.  
MEANWHILE THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.  
 
THE EXTENT OF RAIN COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. OUR CONCERNS  
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAIN LOW AS RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST  
24 HOURS WERE MOSTLY BELOW 1.25-1.5" AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN  
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.  
ADDITIONAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IS  
ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE  
NORTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES  
ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.  
 
THE EXTENT AND LOCATION OF BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL  
DISCREPANCIES, BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE  
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST HALF AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE TEXAS  
COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THESE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY.  
MINOR NUSIANCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR BUT WIDESPREAD  
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A THREAT.  
 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL NOT VARY MUCH WITH LOWS  
IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A WEAK FRONT  
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON  
TUESDAY VARYING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 60S IN  
THE SOUTH. A MORE DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS US  
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR.  
 
THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG  
NORTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL  
QUICKLY, AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY  
COLDER. HAVE KEPT THE LOW RAIN CHANCES IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON  
WEDNESDAY, BUT IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S FRONT, MOISTURE RETURN IS  
SCARCE, AND WE LIKELY WON'T SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION,  
THERE WON'T BE ANY HELP FROM LARGE-SCALE LIFT AS THE SHORTWAVE  
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.  
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HOWEVER,  
WITH THE WINDS, IT WILL FEEL LIKE IT'S IN THE TEENS AND 20S  
THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION  
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR  
SKIES, A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL  
TEXAS. HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES FOR  
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
JLDUNN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
/ISSUED 1230 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2016/  
/18Z TAFS/  
 
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS A  
STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SPREADING NORTH ACROSS OUR TAF  
SITES. THE HEARTIER ECHOES ARE DEEPER SHOWERS, BENEFITING FROM  
DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, THE INSTABILITY ALOFT IS  
WHOLLY INADEQUATE FOR THUNDER; THUS, WE'VE REMOVED THE MENTION IN  
THE WACO TAF. THE VIGOROUS 850MB FLOW WILL BE FOCUSED INTO  
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE CAPE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT  
EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE CEDAR CREEK CORNERPOST IS NORTHWEST OF THE  
BEST INSTABILITY AND SHOULD REMAIN FULLY OPEN THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY  
SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER THIS TIME OF YEAR TYPICALLY RESULTS IN DETERIORATING  
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY, AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE  
TONIGHT. AS THE STRATUS DECK SUPERSATURATES AND DESCENDS, DRIZZLE  
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A RESPITE FROM THE RAINFALL.  
 
25  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 47 53 46 51 43 / 50 20 60 60 20  
WACO 47 51 46 50 43 / 90 60 90 90 20  
PARIS 44 51 42 48 44 / 30 20 40 80 40  
DENTON 45 53 43 51 42 / 40 20 50 50 20  
MCKINNEY 45 52 44 49 42 / 40 20 50 60 30  
DALLAS 47 53 46 50 43 / 50 20 60 70 20  
TERRELL 46 53 46 50 43 / 50 20 60 80 40  
CORSICANA 47 51 47 50 44 / 80 50 90 90 20  
TEMPLE 46 51 46 51 45 / 100 70 90 90 20  
MINERAL WELLS 45 52 44 51 42 / 50 20 60 50 20  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
25/82  
 
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