195  
FXUS64 KHGX 222049  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
349 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AFTER A STORMY, GUSTY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH  
THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COOLER,  
DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA, AND WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED  
WHEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY,  
FINALLY KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE WEEK  
AHEAD ALSO LOOKS RATHER DRY, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES IN SIGHT UNTIL  
ONSHORE FLOW FINALLY RETURNS ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE END OF THE  
WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT.  
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS, THE RADAR  
IS NOW CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. EVEN ANY HIGH  
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST, AS THE NEW DAY CLOUD PHASE  
DISTINCTION RGB FOR GOES-16 SHOWS ONLY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE  
HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN  
SLOWER TO REBOUND AS CLOUDS LINGERED LATER INTO THE DAY THAN  
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED LAST NIGHT, SO HIGHS DID HAVE TO BE NUDGED  
DOWNWARD. HOWEVER, WITH THE SUN WE'VE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON, MOST -  
IF NOT ALL - OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 70S LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS EVENING.  
 
OTHERWISE, A QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP. COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN  
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR  
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY DAYBREAK, AND ALLOW FOR LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST. COASTAL SPOTS MAY STICK AROUND  
60, AND CHILLY SPOTS UP NORTH MAY MANAGE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER  
40S. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVER LAND, THOUGH CONTINUED  
GUSTINESS OVER THE WATERS IS DISCUSSED IN THE MARINE SECTION  
BELOW.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]
 
 
VERY LITTLE OF INTEREST TO SEE HERE FOR MOST INTERESTS. THE FRONT  
THAT HAS JUST PASSED WILL KNOCK THINGS DOWN TO TYPICAL SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURE VALUES FOR MONDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL PUSH RH VALUES  
TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER, AND WILL BEGIN TO MAKE FIRE WEATHER A  
FACTOR WORTH DISCUSSING - AND SO IT IS BELOW. A REINFORCING FRONT  
IS SET TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WINDIER  
DAY. AS CURRENTLY FORECAST, WE WOULD NOT NEED A WIND ADVISORY, BUT  
IT'S PRETTY CLOSE AT THE COAST. ANY UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE  
FORECAST BEFORE THEN WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE ONE TO BE ISSUED. AFTER  
THAT, THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE  
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH LOWS BY EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE 40S AND 50S, A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES  
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.  
 
   
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE CHILLY  
START WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING BEYOND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE,  
AND LIKELY A LITTLE BIT COOLER. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOOK FOR THE  
SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT PAST THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WHICH  
MEANS WE SHOULD SEE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TOWARDS ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.  
IT'S PROBABLY NOT GOING TO ACCOMPLISH A WHOLE LOT IMMEDIATELY,  
PERHAPS KEEP MOST FROM SEEING LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
FROM DROPPING BELOW 50 DEGREES. HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY TO  
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP BOOST THURSDAY'S TEMPS TO AROUND 80  
DEGREES.  
 
THOUGH THERE'S FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR MOST OF THE  
WEEK, THINGS START TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND IN HANDLING THE NEXT  
COLD FRONT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH ITS  
FRONT THAN THE EURO, AND WEAKER WITH ITS UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE  
THIS, IT ALSO FOLLOWS WITH A SURGE OF NORTHERLIES AND COLDER AIR  
AT 850 MB. THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER, THOUGH IT'S FINALLY  
MOVED ITS FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SATURDAY, SIMILAR TO AN EARLIER  
CYCLE OF THE GFS. CONVERSELY, IT BRINGS IN A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH,  
BUT NO REAL REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR LACK  
OF A SIGN THAT EITHER SCENARIO IS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE OTHER,  
HAVE MOSTLY GONE AHEAD WITH A BLEND (SLIGHTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE  
GFS) THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASIER NUDGE TO WHAT EMERGES AS THE  
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, NEITHER MODEL IS  
TERRIBLY ENAMORED OF THE RAIN POTENTIAL ON THIS FRONT, LIKELY  
BECAUSE RETURN FLOW DOESN'T REALLY BEGIN IN EARNEST UNTIL THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON - AND WITH RAIN ON FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY, THERE JUST  
ISN'T A TON OF TIME TO BUILD A RESERVE OF MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE GFS DON'T EVEN EXCEED AN INCH  
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, AND DON'T EVEN REACH 1.5 INCHES BEFORE THE  
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. STILL, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BRIEF  
WINDOW WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE UPPER WIND  
FIELDS THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE SOMETHING ON FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY,  
BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]
 
 
A NARROW EAST TO WEST BAND OF CLOUD AROUND 2500-3500FT STILL HOLDING  
ON NEAR UTS TO HOU BUT THESE SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY IN THE COMING HOUR  
OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP AFTER 23Z WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.  
45  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THIS MORNINGS STORMS AND STRONG WINDS HAVE DEPARTED. ABUNDANT  
REPORTS OF 30 TO 50 KNOT WINDS WITH THE STORMS.  
 
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND HAVE HOISTED THE  
SCA. SEAS OF 4 TO 8 FEET WILL BE COMMON AND COULD EDGE UP CLOSER TO  
9 BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND TRAVERSES SETX RELAXING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT  
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY  
WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY  
WITH ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN WITH  
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ALL OF THESE  
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENTS WILL SUPPORT SCA CONDITIONS.  
 
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL FALL TONIGHT ON THE OUTGOING TIDE AND  
SHOULD NOT RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THURSDAY.  
45  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
DRY AIR IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS. MODERATELY STRONG NORTH  
WINDS WILL USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP TO START  
THE DRYING OUT FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL. MOST AREAS GOT 0.25-0.75" OF  
PRECIP AND PLENTY OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS. RH VALUES IN THE  
COMING AFTERNOONS WILL BE LOW TYPICALLY FALLING INTO THE 20-35  
PERCENT RANGE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER  
NEAR THE COAST. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY IS GOING TO FURTHER BOOST THE  
WINDS AND 10-15 WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 WILL BE MORE COMMON WITH A DEEP  
LAYER OF 20+ KNOTS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. WINDS RELAXING SOMEWHAT  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AND EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. SOME MOISTENING  
FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING THURSDAY COULD YIELD A NIGHT OR  
TWO OF GOOD RECOVERY. FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
ARRIVES AND COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL (IF ENOUGH MOISTURE  
GETS BACK) AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A DEEPER CENTRAL  
U.S. UPPER TROUGH.  
 
45  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 49 80 53 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0  
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 79 55 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0  
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 76 63 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP  
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO  
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA  
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO  
FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...LUCHS  
SHORT TERM...LUCHS  
LONG TERM...LUCHS  
AVIATION...45  
MARINE...45  
FIRE WEATHER...45  
 
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