132  
FXUS64 KOUN 191024  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
524 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR WILL STILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR A FEW OF THE TERMINALS MAINLY  
THIS AFTERNOON (PNC, OKC, OUN, & SPS) BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO  
MENTION ANY TS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP  
OVER THIS TERMINALS AS WELL. OTHERWISE, A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS  
ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BE  
PREDOMINANT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SE KS EARLY  
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  
WENT AHEAD AND PUT SOME SCHC POPS IN FOR THE NE BUT DEFINITELY DO  
NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, AND MOST SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AS  
THE JET MAX DOES THE SAME. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE  
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP.  
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SW WITHIN AND JUST NORTH OF MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE PLUME, AND NE WITHIN SUBTLE WAA. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS  
MAY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE SE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY, IT WILL BE HOT AND  
STICKY TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105 ACROSS CENTRAL OK. A  
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.  
 
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW BUT HEADLINES SHOULDN'T BE  
NEEDED AS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW 105. ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED POPS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME  
ACROSS THE NW/W SUN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS  
TREND WILL CONTINUE MON, WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE, AS A MID  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO ARRIVE  
MID WEEK WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STOUT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE STILL  
UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FAR MORE  
AGGRESSIVE SINCE IT DEPICTS A DEEPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE UPPER  
MIDWEST. REGARDLESS, COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BY WED AND PERSIST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A ~1022 SFC HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE  
MIDWEST!  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 97 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 10  
HOBART OK 99 76 97 74 / 10 10 10 10  
WICHITA FALLS TX 99 76 98 75 / 10 10 10 10  
GAGE OK 98 72 95 72 / 10 10 20 20  
PONCA CITY OK 98 75 97 74 / 20 10 10 10  
DURANT OK 96 75 95 74 / 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING  
FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>026-028>032-040-042-043-  
048.  
 
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
23/03/03  
 
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