047
FXUS64 KOUN 071842
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT ST DECK WHICH DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER TX TO
SPREAD NWWD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. RH PROGS WOULD IMPLY
TRAJECTORY MORE INTO WRN OK/N TX THEN SPREADING NEWD NEAR OR AFTER
SUNRISE. WILL GO WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT COULD SEE SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OK BRIEFLY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1106 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION
MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION TO THE PACKAGE THIS MORNING... MAINLY
WITH SKY COVER. THE OPAQUE CIRRUS IS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA... WHILE THE CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 519 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... 500-M WINDS ARE DECREASING QUICKLY OVER KS BUT
PROFILERS AND 12Z OUN RAOB STILL HAVE THEM STRONG ENOUGH AND
VEERED ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN FOR A COUPLE HRS
THIS MORNING. STRATUS/FOG OVER TX IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT TO ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO DO SO LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MOIST LAYER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY
SHALLOW SO IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR VSBY IN FOG AND SCT TO OCNL BKN
STRATUS/STRATOCU FROM N TX INTO SW/CENTRAL OK TOWARD END OF
FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E AND WILL TRACK TO OUR S
SUN-MON. THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL ROB US OF MUCH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN... PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME ST/SC BY SUNDAY
BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND LIMIT THEM TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MON AND MON NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME ANOTHER BALMY DAY FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN IN SOME AREAS...
MAINLY OUT W. FRIDAY'S HIGH OF 90 AT GAGE IS A NEW RECORD THERE FOR
NOVEMBER. HIGHS LIKELY TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS AND LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE SFC WIND COMPONENT. FOLLOWING THE
EARLY-WEEK SYSTEM... GULF WILL BE CHOKED OFF BY COMBINED EFFECTS
OF A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH OVER THE E CONUS AND THE CIRCULATION
AROUND TROPICAL STORM IDA - OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS. THAT
AND THE RETURN OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL RE-ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN THE
MILD AND DRY PATTERN INTO TUE-WED. S WINDS WILL INCREASE THU IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED TROFFING OUT W. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY... WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS A MORE FAVORABLE
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM. THUS WE
WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
STILL NO SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT BUILD-UP OF REALLY COLD AIR FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS... AT LEAST NOT ANYWHERE THAT IT WOULD BE
POISED TO HEAD THIS WAY. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT WE WILL GET WELL
INTO NOVEMBER - THANKSGIVING OR BEYOND - WITHOUT A WIDESPREAD
KILLING FREEZE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 53 72 57 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 79 54 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 55 77 55 / 0 0 10 10
GAGE OK 81 49 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 56 73 58 / 0 0 10 10
DURANT OK 77 55 72 58 / 0 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
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