131  
FXUS64 KOUN 202325 AAA  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
625 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
21/00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MAJORITY OF AREA  
THROUGH 06Z BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH INCOMING RA/TSRA.  
AS UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION, CIGS WILL FALL AND BY  
12Z AND BEYOND, WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DURING  
AND AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN ACTIVITY MOVES EAST. ADDED TSRA TO ALL  
SITES GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST EMBEDDED TSRA BUT IMPACTS  
SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY TERMINAL.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST  
AREA AS OF 3:30 PM, AND THE AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHORT-RANGE MODELS  
CONSISTENTLY SHOW ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN THAT WILL FORM AHEAD OF  
THIS ONE LATER THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY BRINGING RAIN INTO CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  
 
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN  
COVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY  
TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
 
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY LACKING, AND MOST-  
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND  
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN SHORT, SEVERE STORMS ARE  
UNLIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENT.  
 
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME  
ESTABLISHED. THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN IN WINTER, BUT WE  
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A  
COUPLE OF FRONTS THAT MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS. THE FIRST  
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, AND THE SECOND ONE LATE IN THE WEEK,  
PROBABLY FRIDAY. AGAIN, SEVERE WEATHER IS RELATIVELY UNLIKELY WITH  
BOTH FRONTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 48 56 45 62 / 80 100 60 10  
HOBART OK 48 57 44 66 / 80 90 20 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 52 59 45 67 / 80 80 20 0  
GAGE OK 44 53 41 64 / 90 60 20 0  
PONCA CITY OK 47 54 45 62 / 80 90 60 10  
DURANT OK 51 58 50 65 / 30 90 70 10  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
10/11  
 
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