803  
FXUS64 KOUN 252304  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
605 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHRA AT BOTH  
GAG/WWR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND WILL INTRO A CHANCE AT PNC. COULD BE  
A FEW SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTH TX DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO MENTION IN  
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 
30  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017/  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES NOW  
THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BELIEVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MAINLY WESTERN  
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LIGHT RADAR ECHOES OVER SOUTHWESTERN  
OKLAHOMA AS OF 245 PM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE  
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, ENCOUNTERING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE  
AIRMASS. MOST RAIN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM KANSAS, LIKELY FROM  
A STRONGER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN MID/UPPER FLOW.  
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, AT LEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND GENERALLY IS  
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR.  
REGARDLESS, INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING ACROSS  
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER  
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES  
100-700 J/KG ARE FORECAST, THOUGH NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED  
FROM THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE  
MOST PART AND UNDER 0.25".  
 
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, NOT SURE WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN, BUT  
KEPT 20% CHANCES FOR WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A  
SEYMOUR, TX TO CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE WHERE THERE SEEMS TO BE  
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MODEL QPF SIGNAL. MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS  
ABUNDANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, SO EVEN WEAK ISENTROPIC  
MID LEVEL LIFT COULD TRIGGER SOME WEAK HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND  
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS.  
 
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES  
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK SHOWERS AND  
STORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THIS AREA. WESTERN NORTH TEXAS  
MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE AIR BECOMES INCREASING MOIST (PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES 1.5-1.9") AND UNSTABLE (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG) WHICH  
WOULD SUPPORT PERHAPS A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL  
HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY  
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND MAINLY IN THE 80S.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNAL THAT  
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA FROM  
KANSAS. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AS THESE STORMS WOULD BE WEAKENING AS  
THEY HEAD SOUTH SINCE THE AIR SHOULD BE MORE STABLE IN NORTHERN  
OKLAHOMA COMPARED TO KANSAS. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS  
MAY BE ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  
 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE BREEZY, HOTTER, AND MORE HUMID.  
INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER  
CAPPING, DECREASING CLOUDS, AND DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR RAIN.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BREEZY AND HUMID  
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BREEZY TO WINDY AND HOTTER WEATHER CAN BE  
EXPECTED. THIS MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY, THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE  
SIGNAL FOR WETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, DURING THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING INSTABILITY  
AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING  
AND PERHAPS A WEAK FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE, AND PRODUCE  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST IN MANY  
AREAS. NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR.  
RAIN CHANCES MAY DECREASE BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HOTTER  
CONDITIONS AS POSSIBLE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
MBS  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 85 66 88 / 20 10 20 10  
HOBART OK 64 84 66 89 / 20 20 20 10  
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 85 68 89 / 10 20 10 10  
GAGE OK 61 84 64 88 / 50 20 20 20  
PONCA CITY OK 62 86 64 88 / 20 10 40 20  
DURANT OK 66 86 67 88 / 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
23/17  
 
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