457
FXUS64 KOUN 210822
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
322 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
DISCUSSION
EARLY MODEL DIVERGENCE AND PERIODIC CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LEAD
TO A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER SATURDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS WITH SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH PRIMARY EMPHASIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS FROM WICHITA
FALLS EAST.
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR
A DAY OR TWO.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SERIES
OF CHANCES FOR RAIN AS A LONG PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. EVEN IF THE MODEL FORECASTS WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT...THE TIMING OF SUCH WAVES IS DIFFICULT IN THIS TIME
FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 55 80 61 / 60 10 10 20
HOBART OK 78 54 87 61 / 40 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 57 89 64 / 60 10 10 10
GAGE OK 81 51 85 56 / 10 10 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 77 53 79 57 / 20 10 10 20
DURANT OK 82 60 85 64 / 80 40 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
17/23
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