876  
FNUS75 KGJT 201341  
FWSGJT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG RED FIRE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
741 AM MDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0800 MDT ON AUGUST 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW MOISTURE  
TO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THIS MOISTURE  
INCREASE WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FIRE SITE  
UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WHEN A TROUGH OF  
LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK OVER THE REGION AND  
RESULTS IN A GREATER CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN. FOR THE FORECAST  
PERIOD, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE FIRE SITE  
EACH AFTERNOON WITH ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING  
BEING MORE OF A CONCERN THAN WETTING RAIN.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH, BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (23000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000, INCREASING TO  
GOOD...THEN BECOMING VERY GOOD IN THE LATE MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.  
LAL.................2.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL UNTIL 1100, INCREASING TO 13200 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%), THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
CLOUDY (30-40%).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47 F.  
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900, DECREASING TO POOR (6000-27000  
KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.  
LAL.................1.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......12200 FT AGL UNTIL 1800, DECREASING TO 1600 FT  
AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) IN THE MORNING, THEN  
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) BY AFTERNOON.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73 F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH, BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (18000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 0900, INCREASING TO  
VERY GOOD IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.  
LAL.................2.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......12300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...MATT ALEKSA  
REQUESTED BY...TOM ROERICK  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1714625.0/GJT  
.EMAIL TROERICK@FS.FED.US  
 
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