351  
FXUS65 KGJT 240558  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
1158 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
AS EXPECTED, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN TIER OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS  
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO TRAILING MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING STORM  
SYSTEM. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OF THE "POP-AND-DROP"  
VARIETY BUT THERE WAS A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED JUST  
SOUTH OF RANDLETT, UTAH AROUND 1400 THAT PICKED UP A NICE HAIL  
SIGNATURE ON RADAR. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET  
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, RESULTING IN A QUIET AND MILD  
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY WITH THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF  
RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL FUEL SOME  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH  
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY,  
ALLOWING FOR THE BENIGN WEATHER TO CONTINUE. MANY LOWER VALLEYS  
WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THE NEXT PACIFIC  
LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS  
INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE  
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND  
WESTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH  
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE  
INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE  
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO, HAVE  
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR SATURDAY FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED CRITICAL. MORE  
ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.  
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO STALL ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW  
WORK WEEK WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM  
REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME  
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THIS SYSTEM SITS  
TO OUR WEST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS TRANSITIONING  
THE CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN WAVE BY MID NEXT WEEK AS IT IS FINALLY  
ALLOWED TO LIFT OUT OF ITS NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION, WHICH MAY  
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR REGION. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM  
IS, HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
SKY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THE NEXT  
24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE  
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY,  
RESULTING IN A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE  
NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN  
ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AS WELL AS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO. AS A RESULT, FIRE WEATHER WATCHES  
WERE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO FOR  
SATURDAY WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED CRITICAL. HOWEVER, RECENT  
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY HAVE CHANGED SOME FUELS TO  
NOT CRITICAL, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. IF SO, WOULD  
ENCOURAGE OUR PARTNERS TO UPDATE THEIR RESPECTIVE ZONES AS SOON AS  
POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY  
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-207-290-294.  
 
UT...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MMS  
LONG TERM...MMS  
AVIATION...TGJT  
FIRE WEATHER...MMS  
 
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