196  
FXUS65 KGJT 231001  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
401 AM MDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
 
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS MORNING,  
OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  
FLAT, TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAXING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GUSTY NATURE  
TO THE WIND FIELDS TO EASE UP A BIT TODAY WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS  
ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE  
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE CLIMBING BACK  
TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE  
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY, OR MORE LIKELY INTO THE NOCTURNAL HOURS  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MORE ON THE BELOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
 
PATTERN SHIFTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE ACTIVE REGIME WITH DEEP  
LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SENDING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTHWARD  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING OVER OUR NORTHERN  
ZONES BY LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS LAPSE RATES  
STEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL  
LIKELY STALL ALONG OR NORTH OF THE BOOKCLIFFS (NORTH OF INTERSTATE  
70) DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER PUSH SOUTH  
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY  
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WHILE DOWN SOUTH, WE  
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS  
GRADIENTS SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH AFTERNOON  
HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL A  
LITTLE EARLY FOR ANY SORT OF FIRE HIGHLIGHTS, BUT WILL BE  
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.  
 
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SENDS SHOWERS AND A  
FEW STORMS SOUTHWARD WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM WRAPPING DOWN THE BACK  
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS WAVE SENDS ANOTHER  
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS FRIDAY TO THE NORTH THAT SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
OUTDOOR EVENTS, SUCH AS THE IRON HORSE BICYCLE CLASSIC RUNNING  
FROM DURANGO TO SILVERTON SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS DANCING AROUND. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH  
WITH BULK OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE THE 10K MARK.  
STAY TUNED.  
 
STRONG WESTERN RIDGE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SHIFTING INLAND AS WE  
APPROACH THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE, WHICH IS RIGHT ON TIME AS WE  
MOVE INTO OUR DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND, WITH A QUICK JUMP UP BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
 
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST IN HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS  
THROUGH 15Z MORNING WITH BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ANTICIPATED IN  
LOW CLOUDS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE  
WEST.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JDC  
LONG TERM...JDC  
AVIATION...JDC  
 
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