462  
FXUS65 KGJT 220941  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
341 AM MDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE,  
THANKS TO A WEAKENING PORTION OF THE POLAR FRONT JET. A FEW CLOUDS  
ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THIS MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON BUT ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. IN FACT,  
THE JET STREAM HAS BEGUN SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, IT WILL SHIFT EVEN FURTHER INTO CANADA FOR  
MUCH OF THE WEEK. SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, WE CAN  
RETURN TO GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING  
AND PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS FOR THE NORTHERN  
VALLEYS TODAY BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT, NO FLYS IN THIS OINTMENT.  
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR THE ELK AND PARK RANGES  
WHERE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO FORM  
MONDAY MORNING. BY NOON, THE WHOLE CWA SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
 
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN  
CONUS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS IN RESPONSE  
TO AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE EXTENDED  
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THE NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA APPEAR TO BE FAVORED FOR INCREASED  
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO COLORADO  
ON THURSDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE  
GENERALLY RANGE FROM -6 TO -12 DEGREES C ON THE LATEST GFS RUN WHICH  
COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO MOUNTAIN FLOORS BY DAYBREAK  
FRIDAY AS THIS NICE SHOT OF COLD AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION.  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY SET UP ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS  
STORM AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN REBUILDS TO  
OUR WEST WHICH WOULD SEE THE RETURN OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TGR  
LONG TERM...MMS  
AVIATION...TGR  
 
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