435
FXUS65 KGJT 081036
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
SHORTWAVE OVER SE ID WILL MOVE ACROSS WY THIS MORNING...BRUSHING THE
N. KGJX RADAR AND SFC OBS AT 10Z INDICATED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS NE UT/NW CO AND EXPECT SUCH TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
AS THAT SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY. REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT AND WEAK Q-G
FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS STILL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER TODAY...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET WILL GIVE SUPPORT
FOR A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
THIS BEST SHOWN IN THE NAM. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL GENERATE ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH CLEARING ACROSS ERN UT AND
EXTREME WRN CO MON AFTERNOON. RIDGING BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WEAK LITTLE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHICH MAY CARRY ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN CO AND
EASTERN UT. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE...WITH CLOUD COVER THE THICKEST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE GFS TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER SYSTEM IN
THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HAVE HELD BACK
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND DECREASED IT WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHICH MAY BE UNDER A DRY SLOT TUE NGT
THROUGH WED NGT.
THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS HAD THURSDAY AS THE PRIME DAY FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE 06Z RUN CONTINUED TO SHIFT
ITS SOLUTION TO THE SLOWER ECMWF. AGAIN...EMPHASIS WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF I-70 WHICH WILL BE UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH BETTER MOISTURE.
HAVE DECREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP SOUTH OF I-70.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 06Z GFS CAME IN SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS DIGS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST
THU NIGHT AND FRI...PRODUCING A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM OVER THE SW U.S.
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING AN
OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
IMMEDIATELY BY A DEEPENING LOW THAT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE SINGLE HUGE LOW
OVER AZ SAT. AHEAD AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...PLENTY OF
DYNAMIC LIFT FROM DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND A TAP OF WARM MOISTURE FROM
BAJA IS PROJECTED OVER MUCH OF COLORADO. IF THIS COMES TRUE SAT COULD
BE QUITE CONVECTIVE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW PASSES
EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN MORNING. WITH SUCH LARGE SWINGS IN SOLUTIONS
BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN...THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MTS OF
NE UT AND NW CO...WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS AND ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN POSSIBLE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD EXPAND TO THE CENTRAL MTS TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM.....JAD
LONG TERM......CJC
AVIATION.......JAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page