186
FXUS65 KGJT 241228 CCA
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
428 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2008
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE LARGE SCALE WEATHER FEATURE
FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER SUNRISE AS THIS WAVE PROGRESSES
EAST. THIS WAVE MAY ALSO GIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE A BOOST LATER TODAY.
MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE A LITTLE DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE POP FORECAST FOR
TODAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH. ISOLATED STORMS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SLOW MOVING STORMS AGAIN TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEATING OF THE DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE THEM
DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WEAK FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
AGAIN YIELD POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS.
EDGED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
DUE TO A LITTLE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GENERALLY STUCK WITH
PERSISTENCE ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE FOR TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN UTAH WHICH PRODUCES A
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING ALOFT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM. THIS WILL KEEP
CONVECTION FIRING IN THE SOUTH. DEEPER MOISTURE GETS TAPED SUNDAY
WITH REMNANTS OF OLD HURRICANE DOLLY MOVING INTO THE SRN PART OF
THE CWA SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WIDESPREAD DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE PROVIDING INCREASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION RESULTS IN
RESERVED CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GENERAL MONSOONAL PATTERN
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING MORE PLENTIFUL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION.
THE LATEST RUN SHOWS A LITTLE DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE THETA-E RIDGE GETS FLATTENED. HOWEVER...SINCE THE
GENERAL PATTERN PERSISTS...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. I
DID MAKE SURE THAT ALMOST ALL ZONES HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE PLENTIFUL POPS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
CENTRAL AIRPORTS FROM KRIL TO KEGE AND KASE AND KGUC THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM VAIL PASS TO KRIL TO KCNY...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE
NORTH. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND MVFR
TO IFR VSBYS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO
NONE.
UT
NONE.
SHORT TERM.....TAL
LONG TERM......MC/EH
AVIATION.......TAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page