370
FXUS65 KGJT 251101
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MST WED NOV 25 2009
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GRT BASIN. NO REAL WEATHER TO SPEAK OF
EXCEPT FOR VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING. THIS
FEATURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVER
GILLETTE AND SHERIDAN. DONT REALLY EXPECT MUCH OTHER THAN MAYBE A
FLURRY OR TWO OVER THE NRN MTNS. HAVE SOME VERY LOW POPS THAT
REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING
DAY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. THE GFS AND EC SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION ON THIS TROUGH. THE INCOMING TROUGH SPLITS WITH THE NRN
PORTION TRACKING ACROSS THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER...THE SRN
PORTION DIVES SOUTHWARD AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
ARIZONA. THIS LEAVES COLORADO IN THE MIDDLE WITH LIGHT PCPN
LIMITED TO THE SURFACE FRONT...REACHING NW COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SAGGING ACROSS SW COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 2.5
G/KG...AND DOES NOT HAVE STRONG UPPER AIR SUPPORT. THE MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE POCKET OF COLDEST AIR
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE UTAH SPINE INTO NRN ARIZONA...MISSING OUR
FORECAST AREA. A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SW
COLORADO ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION...BUT
ANY SNOWFALL FROM THIS WILL BE LIGHT. BOTTOM LINE FOR ERN UTAH AND
WRN COLORADO...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH ARRIVES IN TWO PIECES WITH
SPLITTING ENERGY THAT MISSES COLORADO.
PROGRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REPLACES DEPARTING TROUGH ON
MONDAY. A COLDER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...BUT ANY IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM.....MC
LONG TERM......PF
AVIATION.......PF
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