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FGUS74 KMRX 141659
ESFMRX
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
...ATTENTION! STARTING JUNE 10, 2008 THIS PRODUCT WILL ONLY BE ISSUED UNDER
THE NEW AWIPS HEADER MEMDGTMRX OR WMO HEADER AXAA71 KMRX...
...DROUGHT HOLDS IN EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND CHEROKEE
AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...
SYNOPSIS...
THIS STATEMENT IS...UNTIL JUNE 10, 2008...ALSO ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MEMPNSMRX, AND WMO HEADER NOUS44 KMRX.
ALL GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS ARE APPROXIMATE.
D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, AND IN SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. SUCH CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST IN CHEROKEE AND
CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA.
D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT EXISTS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM DEER LODGE
TO KNOXVILLE (INCLUDING THE KNOXVILLE METRO AREA) TO DANDRIDGE TO KINGSPORT, IN
EAST TENNESSEE. THIS INCLUDES THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS, AND MOST OF THE
TRI-CITIES METRO AREA. IN VIRGINIA, THEY EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
WASHINGTON COUNTY. IT ALSO INCLUDES THE CITY OF BRISTOL.
D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) CONDITIONS EXIST IN EAST TENNESSEE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
DEER LODGE TO KNOXVILLE (EXCLUDING THE KNOXVILLE METRO AREA) TO DANDRIDGE TO
KINGSPORT, AND IN VIRGINIA IN LEE, SCOTT, WISE, RUSSELL, AND THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NORTON.
A SMALL SLIVER OF SCOTT COUNTY, TENNESSEE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER IS IN A
NEAR NORMAL STATE OF WETNESS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
NO WIDESPREAD SERIOUS LOCAL OR STATE WATER SUPPLY, FIRE, NAVIGATION, OR
RECREATIONAL IMPACTS ARE KNOWN, ALTHOUGH SOME RECREATIONAL RIVERS ARE LOWER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE DATE. SOME SMALL SPRINGS AND WELLS ARE STILL LOWER THAN
NORMAL AROUND THE REGION, WHICH AFFECT LOCAL OR INDIVIDUAL WATER SUPPLIES. FOR
INFORMATION ON LOCAL WATER RESTRICTIONS, PLEASE CALL YOUR LOCAL WATER BOARD.
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE RESTRICTIONS ARE KNOWN TO EXIST, HOWEVER CONTACT LOCAL
AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR PERMITS.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN
AREA'S PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC
REPRESENTATION A REGION'S RAIN SITUATION. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE MAIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVATION POINTS FOR THE PERIOD STARTING
JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY, MAY 13, 2008:
SITE RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM
CHATTANOOGA 57.11 77.12 -20.01 74
KNOXVILLE 51.75 68.05 -16.30 76
OAK RIDGE 55.96 76.83 -20.87 73
TRI-CITIES 36.75 57.28 -20.53 64
NWS MORRISTOWN 45.58 63.48 -17.90 72
RAIN TOTAL OVER LARGE AREAS SUCH AS RESERVOIR DRAINAGE BASINS IS A MUCH
BETTER INDICATOR OF AN AREA'S "RAIN HEALTH" THAN SIMPLE POINT TOTALS. BELOW
ARE THE DATA FOR THE TVA BASINS IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER DRAINAGE FOR THE
PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY,
MAY 14, 2008:
BASIN RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM
SOUTH HOLSTON 46.13 60.29 -14.16 77
WATAUGA 46.41 63.64 -17.23 73
BOONE 42.76 61.91 -19.15 69
CHEROKEE 44.15 60.62 -16.47 73
DOUGLAS 46.43 64.39 -17.96 72
FONTANA 60.27 82.22 -21.95 73
NORRIS 46.57 63.44 -16.87 73
MELTON HILL 51.87 68.74 -16.87 75
CHATUGE 51.26 82.23 -30.97 62
NOTTELY 57.88 76.30 -18.42 76
HIWASSEE 53.92 79.87 -25.95 68
FT. LOUDOUN/TELLICO 46.58 67.67 -21.09 69
WATTS BAR 53.12 71.51 -18.39 74
CHICKAMAUGA 45.60 74.68 -29.08 61
NICKAJACK 44.71 75.66 -30.95 59
GUNTERSVILLE 43.52 76.87 -33.35 57
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SO FAR IN
MAY. DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS, A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THROUGH ABOUT MAY 23, GENERAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE REGION AS A WHOLE. INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS MAY VARY.
THE LAST WEEK OF MAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL.
THE PERIOD OF JUNE THROUGH AUGUST IS EXPECTED TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL.
THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS OUTLOOK ARE THAT LOWER THAN NORMAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
COULD OCCUR. LESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MEANS THAT TOP SOILS COULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY
WETTER THAN NORMAL, AND STREAM FLOWS WOULD BENEFIT, TOO. FOR RESERVOIR LEVELS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY, MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RAIN MUST OCCUR. THIS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE BULK OF EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED. ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TENNESSEE, AND FOR
VIRGINIA AREAS ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MAY, STREAMS IN THE REGION EXPERIENCED A GENERAL DROP
IN WATER VOLUME DUE TO SPORADIC RAINS FOR THE SEASON. ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR
FLOODING DID OCCUR ON SMALLER STREAMS AND IN SOME URBAN AREAS FROM LOCAL
THUNDERSTORMS, THE WATERS RECEDED MORE RAPIDLY THAN NORMAL. FLOWS FOR THE DATE
ARE STILL IN THE LOWER THAN NORMAL RANGE WITH THOSE IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
RUNNING NEAR RECORD LOWS, AGAIN.
BECAUSE OF THIS, RESERVOIRS ARE FILLING MORE SLOWLY THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD.
WHILE TOP SOILS ARE WETTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN WEEKS, GROUND WATER IS STILL
LOW.
THE OUTLOOK FOR LARGE TRIBUTARIES OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH EARLY SUMMER
IS FOR A LESS THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM AND THE NUMBER OF HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE
PERIOD. BUT IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE HYDROGRAPHY OF THE INDIVIDUAL STREAM.
THINGS LIKE LOCAL GEOGRAPHY, WHETHER SINKHOLES ACCOUNT FOR MUCH UNDERGROUND
STORAGE, LOCAL LAND USE, FLORA, AND SO FORTH, WILL ALSO MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
TROPICAL STORM SEASON BEGINS JUNE 1 AND CONTINUES THROUGH OCTOBER. THE PASSAGE
OF A FEW SUCH STORMS THROUGH THE REGION, WITHOUT DOING ACTUAL DAMAGE, WOULD
GREATLY BENEFIT STREAMS, RESERVOIRS, AND AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR BEFORE JUNE 6, 2008,
DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. IF NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES OCCUR IN THE DROUGHT
SITUATION, IT WILL BE LATER THAN SOONER. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND KEEP
YOU ABREAST.
RELATED WEB SITES...
FOR ONE-STOP SHOPPING ON THE DROUGHT IN THE REGION GO TO
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX/HYDRO/DROUGHT07/MAIN.PHP
OR YOU CAN GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV THEN CLICK ON THE EAST TENNESSEE REGION, AND
THEN CLICK ON THE DROUGHT INFORMATION LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE HOME PAGE.
YOU MAY ALSO VISIT WWW.TVA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LAKES LEVELS,
STREAMFLOWS AND RAINFALL IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY SYSTEM.
STREAMFLOW DATA CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
AT HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT AND THEN CLICKING ON YOUR STATE OF
INTEREST.
ADDITIONAL LONG TERM STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED AT THE NWS
MORRISTOWN "ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES" WEBSITE AT
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MRX
FOR SPECIFIC DATA, DROUGHT INDICES, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT PICTURE WITH
CLICKABLE ZOOMING, GO TO HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
APPRECIATION FOR THE DATA IN THIS DOCUMENT GO TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AUTHORITY (TVA), UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS), THE STATES OF
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA, THE COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA, THE U.S. ARMY
CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE), THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE (NPS), THE NATIONAL
FOREST SERVICE (NFS), THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA AT LINCOLN FOR HOSTING THE
DROUGHT MONITOR WEBSITE, AND NUMEROUS COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS. ALSO, THANKS
GO TO VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS INCLUDING TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS AND
NEWSPAPERS, FOR ASKING THE QUESTIONS THE DRIVE THE GATHERING OF DATA AND
IMPACT INFORMATION.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS PLEASE CONTACT:
BRIAN BOYD
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST/METEOROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
5974 COMMERCE BLVD.
MORRISTOWN, TN 37814
423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY; FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE)
423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS; MAY GET VOICE MAIL)
423-586-6429 (FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE, NON-MEDIA CALLS, IF 2296 IS NOT AVAILABLE)
EMAIL: BRIAN.BOYD@NOAA.GOV
WEBSITE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX
NOTE: IN THE EVENT THE ABOVE PERSON IS NOT AVAILABLE, OTHER STAFF MEMBERS WILL
BE ABLE TO HELP YOU.
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