691  
FNUS71 KAKQ 010312  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSHY HOPE...MARYLAND FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
1112 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MAY 01.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY, RESULTING  
IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION  
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.  
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1800 FT AGL, INCREASING TO 2400-4100 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 24 MPH, INCREASING TO 26 TO 35  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).............25 33 41 49 38 27 39 51 62  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................73 77 80 82 84 85 85 85 84  
RH..................68 62 54 51 48 46 46 45 46  
20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD......10 11 13 14 14 14 14 14 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.....25 30 30 30 30 35 35 35 35  
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW SW S SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....26 29 30 30 29 29 31 33 35  
LVORI...............3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.................38 52 63 70 75 80 85 90 89  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....28 45 63 77 89 102 106 109 105  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT), THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY  
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35  
MPH, DECREASING TO 25 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL, DECREASING TO 300-500 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24 TO 30 MPH, DECREASING TO 20 TO 29 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST  
28 TO 32 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).............67 72 77 83 90 97 92 87 82 67 52 36  
WEATHER COV......... CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV............ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP................82 79 76 74 73 71 70 69 68 66 65 65  
RH..................49 54 62 64 66 71 73 73 76 78 78 75  
20 FT WIND DIR......S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD......14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.....35 35 35 35 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 25  
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.7 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....30 24 20 20 23 25 29 31 32 31 30 28  
LVORI...............1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
ADI.................68 27 18 18 20 23 25 28 29 28 26 25  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 40 40 40 70 70 70 30 30 20 20  
HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....71 40 19 14 11 6 6 7 7 7 7 6  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO  
30 MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1800 FT AGL, INCREASING TO 2700-4500 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 33 MPH, INCREASING TO AROUND 35 MPH  
LATE.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).............28 10 8 8 7 13  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................64 65 69 73 76 76  
RH..................75 65 51 40 33 31  
20 FT WIND..........SW 10 W 10 W 11 W 11 W 12 SW 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.....25 25 25 25 30 30  
MIX HGT (FT)........500 900 2700 3900 4500 4400  
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 29 W 31 W 28 W 25 W 26 W 33  
LVORI...............3 3 1 1 1 1  
ADI.................26 36 64 70 77 98  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 0 0 0 0 0  
HAINES INDEX........5 4 4 4 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....12 24 66 88 104 130  
 

 
FORECASTER...RUSNAK  
REQUESTED BY...GILBERT WAGNER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1708072.0/AKQ  
.EMAIL GILBERT.WAGNER@MARYLAND.GOV  
 
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