451  
FNUS71 KAKQ 250416  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CA BURN UNITS...US ARMY, DPW-ENRD-FORESTRY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
1216 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 25.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND GUST UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON, INCREASED HUMIDITIES WILL QUELL ANY FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER) ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A VERY WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60 TO 62 AT IGNITION. HIGH 75.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 TO 65 PERCENT AT IGNITION. MINIMUM 40 TO 44 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 TO 500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO  
3000-3100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).............63 60 57 55 53 57 61 65  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................61 65 68 70 72 73 73 73  
RH..................65 58 52 49 46 44 44 44  
20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD......5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 15 15 15 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....15 16 15 14 12 9 8 7  
LVORI...............2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2  
ADI.................16 18 24 27 36 31 26 22  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....6 8 18 25 29 25 21 18  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52 TO 54.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87 TO 93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH  
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...BECOMING  
LIGHT...BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL LATE  
IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).............69 73 77 72 74 75 76 77 79 77 76 74  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................72 69 66 63 62 60 59 58 57 56 55 54  
RH..................48 53 58 65 70 75 78 77 80 83 86 90  
20 FT WIND DIR......S S S S S S S S SE SE E E  
20 FT WIND SPD......4 3 2 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 10  
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.4 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8  
LVORI...............2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6  
ADI.................17 4 3 5 6 6 6 4 4 4 6 6  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
HAINES INDEX........3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....13 9 6 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72 TO 74.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49 TO 53 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400-3100 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH...INCREASING TO 6 TO 14 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).............72 69 67 65 64 72  
WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................54 54 60 67 70 70  
RH..................90 86 72 59 53 51  
20 FT WIND..........E 4 E 4 E 4 E 4 S 5 S 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)........300 300 1500 2400 3100 3000  
TRANSPORT WIND......S 8 E 8 E 6 SE 7 S 10 S 13  
LVORI...............6 5 3 2 2 1  
ADI.................6 9 10 15 25 30  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 10 30 30  
HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....2 2 8 14 28 33  
 

 
FORECASTER...DEROSA  
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS MCCLELLAND  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1705168.0/AKQ  
.EMAIL CHRISTOPHER.S.MCCLELLAND.CIV@MAIL.MIL  
 
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