951  
FNUS71 KAKQ 110934  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SIXTY FOOT...MARYLAND FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
534 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON MAY 11.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY  
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
RETURNS SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SUNDAY, THEN STALLS ACROSS THE  
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH THIS MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).............11 13 14 15 17 18 20 23 26 28 31 34  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................62 64 66 70 72 75 77 77 78 77 77 76  
RH..................87 81 78 66 59 52 48 47 45 47 45 46  
20 FT WIND DIR......W NW N N N N N N N NE E E  
20 FT WIND SPD......3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.6 3.5 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10 8 8 9 12 14 15 16 16 15 13 12  
LVORI...............5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.................4 6 6 7 18 29 45 57 64 60 53 46  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10  
HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....2 2 2 6 12 20 35 50 63 61 55 48  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5  
TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 7  
TO 9 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).............37 40 43 46 48 51 53 56 58 55 53 50  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................74 71 68 66 64 63 62 62 61 61 63 62  
RH..................50 55 61 65 70 72 75 75 78 78 75 78  
20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD......4 4 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.4 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8  
LVORI...............1 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4  
ADI.................34 4 5 5 5 3 4 4 5 5 5 5  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....29 14 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.  
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-5100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 22  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).............48 44 39 35 31 28  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................62 67 76 83 86 87  
RH..................81 70 58 47 45 45  
20 FT WIND..........S 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 9 SW 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 15 15 20 20  
MIX HGT (FT)........400 600 1300 2700 4900 5000  
TRANSPORT WIND......S 9 S 12 S 12 S 13 SW 16 SW 22  
LVORI...............4 3 2 2 1 1  
ADI.................8 9 18 29 50 66  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 10 0 0  
HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 4 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3 6 13 30 69 94  
 

 
FORECASTER...RUSNAK  
REQUESTED BY...GILBERT WAGNER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1809680.0/AKQ  
.EMAIL GILBERT.WAGNER@MARYLAND.GOV  
 
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