745  
FNUS71 KRNK 112136  
FWSRNK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ROUGH MOUNTAIN...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
536 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1800 EDT ON JULY 11.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE WILDFIRE SITE, WITH  
CUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN WITH SUNSET. A BRIEF SHOWER IS  
POSSIBLE NEAR THE SITE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR BUT SHOULD REMAIN  
LARGELY DRY. BIGGEST IMMEDIATE CHANGE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A  
WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 5-10 MPH THROUGH MID-  
EVENING, THEN SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AND  
LIGHTEN AS THEY DO SO. MIXING DEPTH WILL ALSO SHRINK TO WITHIN A  
FEW HUNDRED FEET OF THE GROUND, WITH SMOKE LIKELY TO DISPERSE  
TOWARD THE SOUTH, IN VICINITY OF GRIFFITH ROAD. RH'S WILL RECOVER  
QUICKLY FROM AFTERNOON MINIMUMS WITH SUNSET.  
 
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. EXPECT MIXING  
DEPTH TO INCREASE BY AROUND 9-10 AM ONCE OVERNIGHT RADIATION  
INVERSION MIXES OUT. SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER WINDS OUT OF THE EAST  
THURSDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LOFT SMOKE TOWARD THE GAP IN THE  
RIDGE. SPEEDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, AROUND 5-8 MPH.  
FORECAST RH VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 40-50 PERCENT IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND  
5 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN  
THE EVENING.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................15 DECREASING TO 3.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........56 52 49 50 50 50 50 50 49 47 44 40  
WEATHER COV.....ISO  
WEATHER TYPE....RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............86 82 80 78 76 74 72 71 69 68 66 65  
RH..............54 57 61 65 66 69 72 75 78 81 85 89  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
MIXNG WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
MIXNG WIND SPD..6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6  
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5  
ADI.............15 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........EAST 3 TO 8 MPH.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................6 INCREASING TO 14 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 27 IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 17 EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 26.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........37 34 35 39 43 41  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 10 10  
TEMP............63 66 74 80 84 85  
RH..............94 85 65 53 47 46  
20 FT WIND......NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 E 5 E 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....600 1300 3900 5300 5500 5800  
MIXING WIND......NE 6 NE 8 NE 8 E 7 E 5 E 3  
LVORI...........5 4 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............3 14 30 27 18 15  
HAINES INDEX....2 3 2 2 3 3  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................33 DECREASING TO 3.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........39 38 38 38 39 38  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............82 76 72 69 67 66  
RH..............52 63 71 76 80 86  
20 FT WIND......E 3 E 3 E 2 E 2 NE 2 NE 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....5400 4400 1800 400 300 300  
MIXING WIND......E 6 E 8 E 6 E 3 E 2 NE 2  
LVORI...........1 3 3 4 5 6  
ADI.............33 4 2 1 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 2 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...LOCONTO  
REQUESTED BY...IC FRANK SIMMONS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1812642.1/RNK  
.DELDT 07/11/18  
 
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