204  
FXUS61 KRNK 181850  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
250 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER  
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY  
THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE INCLUDING DAILY ROUNDS OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH TO WEDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE  
UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. COLUMN STILL REMAINS QUITE  
DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S UNDER CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION  
ALOFT. THUS APPEARS OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME TRAPPED STRATO-CU  
FAR WEST AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG, WILL SEE A MAINLY  
CLEAR/COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY  
WARMER MAV MOS PER MID JULY TIMING, BUT STILL COULD SEE A FEW  
VALLEY SPOTS DROP WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN GOOD RADIATIONAL  
COOLING PENDING ANY FOG FORMATION. ELSEWHERE, LOOKING AT MAINLY  
MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO 60-65 SOUTHEAST.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTH  
INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL  
REMAIN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF WEST  
VIRGINIA WHERE THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND IN THE VICINITY OF AN  
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO  
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA AS  
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED, LIGHT, AND BRIEF. EVEN  
THOUGH WE WILL HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS (DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT  
SUNSHINE) TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS  
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 202 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
AS THE HIGH CENTER SLIDES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY  
NIGHT, A SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. ANY ISOLATED  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SHOULD FIZZLE  
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO A QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT.  
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM AROUND 60  
DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.  
 
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOME MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN SOUTH  
CAROLINA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW WILL LIFT  
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT REACHING NORTH  
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE, THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE  
MIDWEST TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE  
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  
 
THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE  
LOW MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW  
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SPC'S DAY-3 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTED  
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK TO OUR WEST WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED FOR OUR REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR IN THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY  
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE  
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.  
 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM  
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL  
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE THE MID  
80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 202 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, THEN A WEAK COLD  
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER  
CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY NIGHT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH HEATING OCCURING UNDER THE COLD  
POOL.  
 
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK  
AS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE DRIFTS WESTWARD IN THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
LIKELY EACH DAY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 145 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
DRIER AIR HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THE VFR TREND FOR MOST SITES THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE WITH POSSIBLE RIVER VALLEY  
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION WITH COOLER AIR OVER WARM WATER. APPEARS  
BEST SHOT AT SEEING POSSIBLE IFR OR WORSE WILL BE AT KLWB WHERE  
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS COULD BRING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE  
AIRPORT. ELSEWHERE CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB  
BUT GIVEN SUCH DRYING TODAY, ONLY HAVE MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS  
BEFORE SUNRISE.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION...  
 
RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY BUT STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH  
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
HOURS.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RCS  
NEAR TERM...RCS  
SHORT TERM...KK  
LONG TERM...KK  
AVIATION...RCS  
 
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