106  
FXUS61 KRNK 210529  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
129 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN DRY HEADING  
INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND  
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS  
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE  
AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL  
REFLECT AN INCREASE IN FOG COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHSIDE  
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH  
CAROLINA. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN AT ZERO THE PAST COUPLE  
OF HOURS, AND AN EXPECTED TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. SATELLITE  
FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE ONSET OF  
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAME AREA AS WELL. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED THE  
LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT, AND WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT  
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
AS OF 1015 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO  
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT  
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW. EXPECT  
BULK OF UPSTREAM CIRRUS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT  
AFTER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF  
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO  
LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 40S, COOLER IN THE  
VALLEYS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AS  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REACH  
THE MID/UPPER 70S EAST OF THE RIDGE, LOW/MID 70S WEST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
EXPECT MILD AND DRY WEATHER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE  
IN CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE MS  
VALLEY WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER ARKANSAS. MODELS VARY SOME ON  
TIMING BUT OVERALL SEEM REASONABLE THAT SHOWERS WILL START TO SPREAD  
INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS/VA BLUE RIDGE AFTER SUNDAY DUSK, AND STAY  
AROUND THIS AREA MAYBE NOSING AS FAR NORTHEAST AS FLOYD TO MT. AIRY  
OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
A DEEP TROUGH WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY-WEDNESDAY  
WITH ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN MODELS SHOWING BETTER LIFT AND PRECIP  
COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER  
TROUGH MAY ALLOW SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM TUESDAY, BUT  
OVERALL LOOKING AT MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVIER SHOWERS AS FRONT  
MOVES TUESDAY.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE  
REGION, BUT KEEP COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE ACROSS THE REGION.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY  
THE ALLEGHANYS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NC. POSSIBLY  
EARLY IN THE MORNING, LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESS VALUES  
WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOTHING  
SUPPORTS ANY ACCUMULATION OR MUCH QPF AT THIS TIME.  
 
WITH REGARD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, ALL OF THE EXTENDED  
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH,  
LIFTING IT OUT OF HERE AS QUICKLY AS THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING  
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO MODERATE  
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL DUE TO  
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY RAW  
DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND  
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES ITS  
DEEPEST POINT. THURSDAY-FRIDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION  
AND A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS  
OUT OF THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 125 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL HELP YIELD PRIMARILY VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST TIME PERIOD  
CONCLUDING AT 06Z/2AM SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW HOURS  
AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING OF SOME MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY  
IFR/MVFR FOG AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH  
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, OUTSIDE THE USUAL LATE  
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.  
 
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS  
IN RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND. COLDER, BLUSTERY,  
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERHAPS LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS  
THE MOUNTAINS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DS  
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/MBS  
SHORT TERM...WP  
LONG TERM...RAB/WP  
AVIATION...AMS/DS/MBS  
 
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