815  
FXUS64 KMRX 200744  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
344 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
   
SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW NIGHT)
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TERM PERIOD. UPPER  
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS A DEEP UPPER LOW BEGINS TO  
EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. THUS, EXPECT A WARMING TREND  
TODAY INTO TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S  
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WIND  
FIELDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HINTING AT  
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS  
DUE TO WEAK DOWNLOPE FLOW. CHOSE TO STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR  
THE TIME BEING AS THERE IS A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME MODELS  
SHOW THIS OCCURRING. HARD TO SAY JUST HOW MUCH WARMER THIS WOULD  
HELP PUSH HIGHS.  
 
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CREEPS CLOSER RAIN WILL RETURN TO  
THE FORECAST, BUT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE DURING THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD. DO HAVE SOME VERY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FAR  
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, NAMELY TO THE WEST AND  
NORTHWEST OF CHATTANOOGA, LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT MOST MODEL  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
   
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
 
 
THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM H5 RIDGE TO  
TROUGH, AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,  
SPREADING PRECIP INTO THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVING  
CLOSED LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SECOND TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO  
IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THANKS TO THESE, CLOUDINESS  
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE  
NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 41 71 50 / 0 0 0 20  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 39 70 48 / 0 0 0 0  
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 38 70 47 / 0 0 0 0  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 35 67 43 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.  
 
TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY  
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-  
JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY  
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST  
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.  
 
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR  
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-  
JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH  
SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-  
UNION.  
 
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-  
WASHINGTON-WISE.  
 

 
 

 
 
CD/GC  
 
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