155  
FXUS64 KMRX 290814  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
414 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017  
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
 
RIDGING BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS  
WILL MARK THE SHORT TERM. WARM TEMPERATURES OF 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED, WITH FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL  
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE NC SIDE OF  
THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT MAY FLIRT WITH TN MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES ON  
THE STATE LINE, BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE NON-MENTION OF PRECIP.  
   
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
 
MAIN CONCERN IS A STRONG  
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING EAST FRO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG JET STREAKS  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH  
BROAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THE CIRCULATION AROUND  
THESE JETS WILL PRODUCE STRONG UPPER FORCING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING, A STRONG  
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AS WELL WITH 850MB WINDS OF 50-60KTS  
PULLING ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,  
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  
 
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD  
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE  
TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LONG-LIVED TORNADOES  
ANTICIPATED. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE  
IS IF THESE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAN MAKE INTO THIS FAR EAST INTO  
LESSER ENVIRONMENT. CIPS ANALOGS SUGGESTS THERE IS A THREAT INTO  
THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH SPC PULLING A SLIGHT RISK  
INTO THESE AREAS. FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY, THERE IS A THREAT OF  
DAMAGING WINDS AS THESE STORMS WEAKEN WITH A MARGINAL RISK.  
 
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,  
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING  
CONDITIONS LIMITING CONVECTION. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED  
WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYANMIC CONDITIONS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR  
MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDS FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND  
FOOTHILLS FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WRAP-AROUND  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  
 
UPPER RIDGING RETURNS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT STRONG  
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG DYANMICS WITH  
THIS SYSTEM AS WELL WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 58 80 59 / 0 10 30 80  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 55 76 57 / 0 10 20 80  
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 55 77 57 / 0 0 20 80  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 50 73 54 / 0 10 20 70  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR  
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER  
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST  
MONROE-UNICOI.  
 
VA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
 
 
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