043  
FNUS71 KBTV 181139  
FWSBTV  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FLAT ROCK FIRE...DEC FOREST RANGERS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
739 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1400 EDT ON JULY 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (802) 658-0207, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND  
CONTINUE FOR THE REMINDER OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY  
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 27% TO 33% RANGE  
DAILY. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND  
TERRAIN DRIVEN ON THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO  
15 MPH BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL TODAY, BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY  
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........2 1  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0  
TEMP............72 75  
RH..............38 33  
20 FT WIND......NW 12 NW 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 14  
MIX HGT (FT)....4900 5000  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 15 NW 16  
HAINES INDEX....4 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.  
MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........1 2 1 1 2 3  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............73 67 61 57 55 52  
RH..............37 49 60 69 72 77  
20 FT WIND......NW 9 W 6 W 6 W 6 W 5 W 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....3500 400 200 100 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 13 NW 8 W 6 W 6 W 5 SW 5  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.  
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-6100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 7 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........3 3 3 4 7 5  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............54 61 70 76 79 81  
RH..............77 67 51 42 36 35  
20 FT WIND......W 5 W 5 W 5 W 5 W 5 W 5  
20 FT WIND GUST. 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 700 4100 5900 6100 6000  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 W 6 W 7 W 7 W 7 W 7  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...HASTINGS  
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT ROGERS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1812844.4/BTV  
.DELDT 07/18/18  
.EMAIL ROBERT.ROGERS@DEC.NY.GOV  
 
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