417  
FNUS71 KBTV 191142  
FWSBTV  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TWIN LAKES FIRE...NYS DEPT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
742 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 19.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (802) 658-0207, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING BY LATE THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS  
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY (AS OF 735AM) IS PROGRESSING STEADILY  
NORTH AND WILL BE REACHING THE FIRE AREA SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. ON AND OFF  
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL  
HAVE A LULL DURING THE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL  
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A WETTING  
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOUT 1/4". ANOTHER 1/4" OF  
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  
 
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWEST LATE THIS MORNING, JUST PRIOR TO THE RAIN,  
AND STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THE RAIN AND  
THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING DURING THE LULL IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING  
JUST PRIOR TO NOON, AND CONTINUING IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...BEGINNING 11AM-12NOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 23  
TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........81 90 98 100 97  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE OCNL DEFNTE LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 80 100 70  
TEMP............52 60 60 59 57  
RH..............52 41 46 57 69  
20 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 12 SE 13 SE 14 S 16  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 17 19 21 23  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 1500 1700 1000 1300  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 SE 17 SE 18 SE 18 S 23  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...CONTINUING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.  
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 24 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 23 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........98 93 72 83 77 90  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY OCNL  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 30 30 30 70 80  
TEMP............59 58 58 57 58 57  
RH..............67 75 80 86 86 93  
20 FT WIND......S 15 S 13 S 14 S 14 SW 13 SW 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.24 20 19 21 20 19  
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1000 1000 1000 900 900  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 18 S 18 S 18 SW 17 SW 17  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING,  
THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...ENDING AFTER 12NOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 18 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-3800 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 17 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........98 99 96 91 80 58  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).90 90 70 50 20 20  
TEMP............58 59 59 60 63 65  
RH..............93 93 83 72 62 50  
20 FT WIND......SW 12 W 10 W 9 W 9 W 10 NW 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 16 12 11 11 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....900 900 1500 1800 1900 3100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 W 16 NW 15 NW 15 NW 15 NW 16  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...NASH  
REQUESTED BY...FR ADAM BALDWIN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1810308.0/BTV  
.DELDT 05/19/18  
.EMAIL ADAM.BALDWIN@DEC.NY.GOV  
 
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