544
FXUS61 KALY 080913
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT'S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.
THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.
BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.
WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU
TAF SITES SOMETIME AROUND 14Z. THE CLOUD DECK AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS FOR KALB WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS INITIALLY...THEN TEND TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.
LATER IN THE MORNING THEY WILL SWITCH TO WEST AT UNDER 10 KTS...THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD SUNSET. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO BE
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT
TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...AND CALM
TOWARD SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.
STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
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