326  
FXUS61 KALY 241400  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS  
MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE  
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD  
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER  
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, AS THE FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 945 AM EDT...SPC EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK NORTHWARD WITH  
THE 12Z UPDATE TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON  
VALLEY, SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT. PER THE MESOSCALE HIRES  
FORECAST REFLECTIVITY POINTS TOWARD THESE AREAS WITH THE HIGHER  
POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. THIS IS ASSUMING ENOUGH BREAKS  
IN THE OVERCAST OCCUR AND FORECAST PARCELS PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING  
SUGGESTS CAPES CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND SOME INCREASE OF  
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES. AT THE MOMENT, A FEW SHOWERS HAVE  
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AS WE WILL EXPAND THE POPS THIS  
MORNING. LAYERED H2O VAPOR LOOP PER GOES-16 CLEARLY DEPICTS  
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN APPROACHING  
LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE EXPECTED  
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF  
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  
 
PREV DISC...THE MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE IF ANY BONAFIDE  
CLEARING OCCURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE ST  
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY, AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM  
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW STRATUS WILL  
TAKE ITS TIME BURNING OFF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING  
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE MID  
HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN TACONICS,  
BERKSHIRES, AND NW CT. THE SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER  
50S TO MID 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
EXTREME OF THE FORECAST AREA. A QUICK CHECK OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWS  
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THESE SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT WITH SFC  
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO NOT THINK THE AIR MASS WILL BE  
THAT MOIST, BUT NONETHELESS SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH  
SOME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH  
POCKETS IN THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THE 0-6 KM BULK  
SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE 30-40 KTS WITH INDIVIDUAL DISCRETE CELL  
FORMATION POSSIBLE, BUT LIKING ORGANIZING INTO CLUSTER OR SMALL  
LINES IN THE LATE PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
THE PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE, AS THESE VALUES ARE  
1-2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS. THE MID-  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS/NAM ARE VERY WEAK AT LESS THAN  
6C/KM. SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY BUT THE LACK OF  
ABUNDANT CAPE SHOULD LIMIT THE UPDRAFTS FROM BEING TALL ENOUGH  
FOR A SEVERE THREAT. THERE COULD BE A ROGUE/ISOLATED SEVERE. WE  
WILL SEPARATE OUT THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION, AND  
THE BERKSHIRES IN THE HWO TO MENTION SOME GUSTY WINDS AND  
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT FOR MUCH CLEARING  
IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD  
STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL AMOUNTS  
OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
 
THE LATEST CAMS SUCH AS THE 3-KM HRRR, 3-KM NAMNEST, AND WRF-ARW  
ALL SHOW SOME STRONGER REF CORES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN  
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z TO-03Z. WE HAVE POPS  
GENERALLY LIKELY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH  
AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS  
WILL BE CLOSER TO LATE JUNE NORMALS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF  
THE ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS WITH  
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE MTNS,  
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN GREENS. IT WILL BE HUMID TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT...THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS EVENING  
WITH THE SHORT-WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT MAKING  
STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
MAY RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN  
INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS  
AMPLIFIES AND THE SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DRAMATICALLY DECREASE  
PER THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS. AN INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION  
WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, BUT A BETTER ONE WILL  
COME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY MID TO LATE MORNING.  
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
MONDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER HERE WITH THE  
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW DOWN STREAM OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. THE AXIS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH  
THE COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST OVER CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE KEPT A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER  
SOUTHERN VT, BUT TRENDED THE REST OF THE AREA DRIER. IN THE COLD  
ADVECTION, H850 TEMPS FALL TO +7C TO +11C FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME INSTABILITY CUMULUS OVER OR NEAR THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN, AS IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TOO WITH NORTH TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD BELOW  
NORMAL WITH MID AND UPPER 70S IN MANY OF THE VALLEY AREAS, AND  
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY  
LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS QUICKLY ABATE, AS A CANADIAN  
ANTICYCLONE /1025 HPA/ RIDGES IN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES  
AND NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL  
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG AND  
OVER THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE WENT CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAVMOS  
MINS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, AND A FEW UPPER 30S ARE  
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN DACKS.  
 
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AND THEN SLOWLY SLIDE  
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL  
INCREASE OVER THE REGION. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH  
WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH  
WIDESPREAD 70S AND FEW UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR  
THE WEEKEND.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS LOW, SHOWERS MAY SPREAD  
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE  
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT  
WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,  
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THAT  
BEING SAID, MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST  
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A CHANCE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING  
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXIT  
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
LIFTS FURTHER INTO NEW ENGLAND.  
 
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY, WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH H500 HEIGHTS. DETERMINISTIC,  
BLENDED, AND MOS GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL  
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. STARTING FRIDAY  
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE  
90F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AROUND THE REGION. SUNDAY MAY BE THE  
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH LATEST GEFS SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS +2  
TO +3 S.D., WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE UPPER  
90S. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
IFR TO LIFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW  
MORE HOURS THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS SETTLED IN  
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WITH LIGHT WINDS, THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME  
TO MIX OUT BUT WHEN IT DOES, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR  
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH  
OF KALB. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE/MOVE OUT OF THE REGION  
BY AROUND 04Z/MON.  
 
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE  
TONIGHT, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT. SO  
HAVE TRENDED THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE  
LESS THAN 10 KTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED  
WEATHER TO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERS AND  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DIMINISH TONIGHT, AS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY,  
AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  
 
THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HUMID  
AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH  
VALUES OF 55 TO 85 PERCENT. THE MAXIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE 90 TO  
100 PERCENT TONIGHT, AND THEN LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT BY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS  
MORNING, AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT  
5 TO 15 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL  
FURTHER SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.  
 
AN ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINFALL OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE  
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK ON  
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. MOST OF THE ENTIRE HYDRO SERVICE AREA  
/HSA/ IS UNDER ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST  
US DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED LAST WEEK.  
 
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, COLD FRONT, AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE  
ACROSS THE HSA THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND  
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN  
INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MINIMAL RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER  
RETURNS MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME  
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WASULA  
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA  
SHORT TERM...WASULA  
LONG TERM...JVM  
AVIATION...VTK/JVM  
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA  
HYDROLOGY...NAS/WASULA  
 
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