637  
FXUS61 KALY 210908  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
408 AM EST WED FEB 21 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RECENT  
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, USHERING IN  
COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY WITH SOME SNOW  
POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR  
HERKIMER, HAMILTON, AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...  
 
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, THE AREA REMAINS  
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.  
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S UP TO THE LOW 50S  
WITH ANONYMOUSLY HIGH DEW POINTS. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS EASTERN  
WINDHAM COUNTY, MAINLY NEAR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. A LIGHT  
BREEZE HAS LIMITED ADDITIONAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG FROM FORMING  
BUT CANNOT RULED OUT AS WE NEAR DAWN.  
 
TODAY THE MAIN STORY ARE THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES  
EXPECTED TO BE SET AT CLIMATE SITES ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE (SEE  
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS). ACHIEVING THESE RECORD  
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE ABILITY TO SCOUR OUT ANY MORNING  
FOG OR LOW STRATUS. HOWEVER, AT THE MOMENT, SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY  
CLEAR WITH DRY AIR PRESENT AT LOW LEVELS, PER LATEST GOES-16  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND POTENTIAL  
MIXING, WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 60S  
TO LOWER 70S FOR AREAS AROUND I-90 AND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT  
SOUTHWARD. A FAVORABLE SW FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALONG WITH  
ANOMALOUS WARMTH AT 850 MB +2 TO +3 LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE  
IN THE WARMTH. THE ALL-TIME FEBRUARY RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 74 AT  
ALBANY SET JUST LAST FEBRUARY, MAY BE CHALLENGED. AGAIN, AREAS  
IN NY NORTH OF I-90 WILL BE COOLER WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE  
FORECAST IN HIGH TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SE ACROSS  
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH  
TO NOT AFFECT THE WARMING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF  
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY START TO DROP DURING THE  
MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.  
MAINLY SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD  
FRONT DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND DYNAMICS DESPITE THE  
UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS.  
 
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING THE FLOW TO  
TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AND CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLDER AIR.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OFF OF THE  
FLORIDA/CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL PERSIST BUT BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON  
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TO RIDE ALONG THE EDGE  
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND LEAD TO  
A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE,  
WE COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SOME SLEET DURING THURSDAY  
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND  
POINTS SOUTH. WE COULD ALSO SEE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, AS SURFACE RIDGING  
HOLDS STEADY OVER NEW YORK. LOW TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR  
LATE FEBRUARY, MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A  
PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
AS THE CURRENT ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF  
THE FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS VERSIONS ALONG WITH THE GFS/GGEM ALL  
SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE  
FRIDAY AS THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT ADVECTS NORTHWARD WITH CHANCES  
FOR PRECIPITATION QUICKLY INCREASING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A  
CHALLENGE AS WARM ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS A COOLER SURFACE FOR A  
PERIOD OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ALL POSSIBLE WITH A  
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE  
DAY AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, LOCATIONS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE I84 CORRIDOR MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR THE CHANCE  
OF ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. OTHERWISE, LARGE SURFACE HIGH  
IS EXPECTED TOO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND.  
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DRY WITH NEAR  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES. THIS  
WILL HAVE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF  
THE MAIN COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST  
THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE  
NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH, HOWEVER, NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS HAS  
BEEN SEEN THUS FAR DUE TO HIGH SCT-BKN CANOPY OF CI/CS AND WIND  
MAGNITUDES. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS  
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW THAT WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR  
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  
 
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GUSTY  
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT  
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON YET SHOWER POTENTIAL IS LESS THAN IDEAL  
SO WE WILL INCLUDE A VCSH NORTH OF KPOU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD  
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...RA...SN.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.  
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, WITH  
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS WELL. IT WILL BE  
RELATIVELY COOLER FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT,  
ALTHOUGH SNOWMELT WILL STILL OCCUR. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
WILL OCCUR, WITH GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF  
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A COLD FRONT  
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN  
TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THURSDAY.  
 
THE MAIN WILD CARD WITH REGARDS TO RUNOFF WILL BE SNOWMELT.  
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR HERKIMER, HAMILTON, AND  
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING HAS  
DECREASED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE  
LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER. ALSO,  
MMEFS SHOWING NO NEAR TERM FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE DAYS. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH  
THOUGH, BUT WILL NOT BE EXPANDING THE WATCH AREA.  
 
WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHERE CURRENT ICE JAMS ARE IN  
PLACE FOR POSSIBLE MOVEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLOWS MAY  
NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE ABSENCE  
OF RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN  
PREDICTING ICE JAM MOVEMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS  
CLOSELY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LARGER ICE JAMS AROUND SCHENECTADY  
AND THURMAN IN WARREN COUNTY.  
 
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION, SOME FROZEN, IS EXPECTED THURSDAY  
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RIVERS LEVELS COULD RISE FURTHER  
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL QPF.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.  
 
TUE FEB 20TH  
CURRENT RECORD HIGHS:  
KALB 66F SET IN 1930  
KGFL 58F SET IN 1981  
KPOU 63F SET IN 2016  
 
WED FEB 21ST  
CURRENT RECORD HIGHS:  
KALB 65F SET IN 1981  
KGFL 65F SET IN 1981  
KPOU 67F SET IN 1953  
 
ALL-TIME FEBRUARY HIGHS:  
KALB 74F SET FEB. 24, 2017  
KGFL 70F SET FEB. 25, 2017  
KPOU 73F SET FEB. 24, 2017  
 
RECORDS FOR KPOU DATE BACK TO 1949... HOWEVER...DATA IS MISSING  
FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038-042.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JPV/JVM  
NEAR TERM...JVM/JPV  
SHORT TERM...JPV/JVM  
LONG TERM...BGM  
AVIATION...BGM  
HYDROLOGY...JPV/JVM  
CLIMATE...  
 
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