858  
FXUS61 KALY 290253  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1053 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.  
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL UNDER CLEARING SKIES. ANOTHER STORM  
SYSTEM WITH RAIN AND SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL  
DISTRICT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CLOUDS SHOULD  
REMAIN FAIRLY ABUNDANT OVERNIGHT, SO DESPITE DEVELOPING LOW  
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.  
 
LOWS MAINLY 30S EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR  
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH  
SOME 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN  
MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND IN THE EASTERN  
CATSKILLS.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY  
INITIALLY BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH THE  
MORNING, LEADING TO AREAS OF CLOUDS, BEFORE DEEPER MIXING ALLOWS DRY  
AIR ALOFT TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF  
THE ATMOSPHERE. SO, MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MOST  
AREAS, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING, FIRST IN VALLEYS, LAST FOR  
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD EVEN BE ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OR  
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING AS MIXING FIRST DEVELOPS.  
 
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND  
40S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, ALTHOUGH SOME 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND  
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD PREVAIL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW  
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL BE  
WORKING INTO THE LOCAL AREA, REFLECTED IN A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THIS WILL PROMOTE TRANQUIL WEATHER AND  
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.  
AS THE HIGH IS NOT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED WHICH MAY PREVENT TEMPS  
FROM TUMBLING FURTHER.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE UPPER  
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS IT TRACKS  
EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THOUGH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO  
PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH, THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME NORTHERN-STREAM  
ENERGY TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG THE SAME LONGITUDE AND POTENTIALLY  
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM OFFSHORE. THE ATTENDANT  
COMPOSITE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER  
WAVES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES WITH A SOLID LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK.  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LLJ, IN TANDEM  
WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF  
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET, WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD  
INTO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GOOD  
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO, SO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN  
PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES  
AND RESULTANT P-TYPE CARRY LOWER CERTAINTY. FAIRLY GOOD  
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP BEGINNING AS SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO  
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MIDLEVEL WET BULB TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO.  
AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY, CONTINUED POSITIVE MIDLEVEL WARM ADVECTION  
AND DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING FROM THE LATE MARCH SUN WILL  
BE BATTLING AGAINST COOLING DUE TO UPWARD MOTION AND EVAPORATIVE  
EFFECTS TO EDGE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE NORTHWARD AND TOWARD HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW, AREAS NORTH OF I-90 AND ABOVE 1000' ARE  
FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WILL  
HONE IN ON THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT FOR NOW THE MESSAGE  
IS THAT A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS  
BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL LIKELY NEED HIGH  
RATES TO ALLOW SNOW TO STICK ON THE ROADS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY,  
BUT THAT IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.  
 
MORE UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT  
POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE PRECIP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON  
VALLEY. 12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE ON OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE ENVELOPE,  
WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION. FOR  
NOW, WILL TREND POPS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATTER  
PART OF THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT AT THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE  
AFFECTING US ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH  
MONDAY BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS MAY FLIRT WITH A  
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL  
CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGHS IN VERY  
EARLY APRIL IN ALBANY ARE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE, WITH LOWS  
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
MAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL  
DISTRICT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CLOUDS SHOULD  
REMAIN FAIRLY ABUNDANT OVERNIGHT, SO DESPITE DEVELOPING LOW  
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR BUILDS IN  
AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.  
 
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO CALM WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH  
LATER TONIGHT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL  
INCREASE WEDNESDAY BECOMING BRISK AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING/  
EARLY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 13 TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED  
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.  
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SLEET.  
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO  
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND. SOME OF THE VALLEY AREAS HAVE BARE  
PATCHES, BUT THE MOUNTAINS HAVE A DEEP SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MID-WEEK INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND  
DRIER WEATHER. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH AROUND 25 MPH ON  
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. RAIN AND  
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING. THIS RAINFALL,  
ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED SNOWMELT, WILL CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK  
RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. HOWEVER, THIS RAIN AND SNOWMELT IS  
NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY CONCERN FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME.  
CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE A FEW POINTS GETTING TO CLOSE OR UP TO  
THE ALERT OR ACTION STAGE, BUT NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
FLOWS WILL RECEDE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK WITH A  
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAS BUILDING IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GO  
BELOW FREEZING WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT WITH A NORMAL DIURNAL  
MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK IN SPOTS.  
 
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW IS  
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER  
STORM SYSTEM. THE AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE MODERATE  
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION, RESULTING IN RIVER RISES. HOWEVER, THE  
AIRMASS WILL BE COOL, AND CURRENT MMEFS FORECASTS KEEP THE  
FORECAST SITES BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...IAA/THOMPSON  
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL  
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON  
LONG TERM...ELH  
AVIATION...IAA  
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/THOMPSON  
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/THOMPSON  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab MA Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page