751  
FXUS61 KALY 141713  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
113 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING OCCASIONAL  
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING  
POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY  
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 100 PM, LOW PRESSURE AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND  
EASTWARD. LATEST RADAR SHOWING STRONGEST RETURNS ACROSS THE  
NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS, CATSKILLS AND THE BERKSHIRES. ACROSS  
THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION  
RADAR IS QUIET RIGHT NOW AS WE ARE IN THE DRY SLOT. AS THE  
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, THE RADAR SHOULD FILL IN.  
 
HAVE UPDATED TEMPS, SKIES AND DEWPTS BASED ON LATEST  
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY,  
THE SARATOGA AND GLENS FALLS REGION, CAPITAL DISTRICT, MID  
HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS, MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND  
EASTERN CATSKILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY  
TRACK EASTWARD TODAY, WITH THE CORE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NY  
BY LATE IN THE DAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE IN OUR  
AREA, AS WE WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL  
JET STREAK EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CORE. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE  
FORCING COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUS DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT  
ANOMALIES AROUND +1 STDEV) AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE OF 1000-1500  
J/KG, WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE TALLER  
CONVECTIVE PLUMES. WIND FIELD WILL BE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND  
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SO CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING. WE  
HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MUCH OF EASTERN  
NY EXCEPT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. SOIL MOISTURE/ANTECEDENT  
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RUN WET IN THE WATCH AREA, BUT MUCH DRIER  
IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH HEAVY  
RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR WESTERN NEW  
ENGLAND, THE MAIN QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN TALLER CONVECTIVE PLUMES BY LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES  
THERE FOR NOW, BUT MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
AS INSTABILITY WANES LATER THIS EVENING, INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF  
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE. ALSO, MODELS INDICATING THE UPPER  
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVERNIGHT. SO WILL  
END THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY MIDNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS  
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES  
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.  
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL START TO MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. IT STILL BE  
WARM AND MUGGY, WITH NO DISCERNIBLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
WEDNESDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE  
AREA. HOWEVER, DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MODELS ARE  
INDICATING A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING  
THROUGH NORTHERN NY. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE  
HEATING WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6  
KM INCREASING TO AROUND 25-30 KT. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY  
AND SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS  
THE ADIRONDACKS. COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE WIDELY SCATTERED  
THOUGH, AND ISOLATED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WITH MORE SUNSHINE  
AND BETTER MIXING THAN RECENT DAYS, IT WILL BE BECOME VERY WARM  
WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
 
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING AND THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WARM/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN EXPECTED  
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND  
HUMID ON THURSDAY, WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING THROUGH AT LEAST THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN ANOTHER  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES MAY TRIGGER  
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.  
WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, WITH THE HIGHER  
PROBABILITIES WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A TROUGH AND LOW  
PRESSURE APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL HAVE  
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION AS A  
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH. HAVE POPS  
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY FOR  
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED LINGER  
INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT FOR HOW  
LONG THIS SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE  
AREA FOR SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. BY MONDAY  
THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT SOME RIDGING SHOULD BUILD INTO THE  
REGION AS ITS INDUCED AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH WITH INDICATIONS  
ALONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL  
OCCUR BUT DOES INDICATE MORE UNSETTLED WET WEATHER.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY DESPITE  
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS WE START OUT MILD AND HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
SEASONABLE READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE ABOVE  
NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION  
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VSIBILITIES WILL BE VFR THIS  
AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTION IS ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR TO IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY  
STORMS. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING  
HOWEVER OVERNIGHT WHERE CLOUD COVER DECREASE FOG AND/OR STRATUS  
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS TODAY.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND  
10KTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING OCCASIONAL  
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING  
POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY  
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING OCCASIONAL  
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEP  
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT PUSHES EAST. SOME STORMS  
WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A  
RESULT, THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH  
OF EASTERN NEW YORK EXCEPT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS, WHERE ANTECEDENT  
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MUCH DRIER. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, IT  
HAS BEEN WET OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, WITH SOIL MOISTURE  
ALREADY RUNNING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH.  
 
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,  
HOWEVER THE SCHOHARIE BASIN IS RUNNING HIGH SO ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN RENEWED FLOODING ALONG THE SCHOHARIE  
CREEK AT GILBOA BRIDGE, OR NEW FLOODING AT PRATTSVILLE.  
 
SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. THIS  
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN THREE HOURS OR LESS, THUS RESULTING IN A  
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE  
OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPERING OFF.  
 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEN, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038>041-  
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JPV  
NEAR TERM...VTK  
SHORT TERM...JPV  
LONG TERM...IAA  
AVIATION...VTK  
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV  
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV  
 
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