640  
FXUS61 KALY 201735  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
135 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO  
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 1237 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE  
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND NOT SHOWING  
ANY SIGNS OF DISSIPATING TODAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS  
CLOUDS, SOMEWHAT DENSE AT TIMES, FROM TROPICAL STORM JOSE ARE  
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS  
SUGGEST THAT A FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY SHOULD BE IN PLACE  
THROUGH THE DAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP UP ACROSS SOUTHERN  
VT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A  
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.  
TEMPERATURES ARE TRACKING CLOSELY TO FORECASTS DESPITE DENSE  
CIRRUS AND STRATUS CLOUDS, SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.  
 
AS FAR AS TROPICAL STORM JOSE GOES, THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE  
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ALONG WITH  
GRADUAL WEAKENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
FOR FORECAST AND OTHER DETAILS ON JOSE. AGAIN, NO IMPACTS IN  
OUR AREA FROM JOSE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENS AT ALL  
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND CONTINUED  
WARM WEATHER FOR THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM JOSE WILL MEANDER OFF  
THE EAST COAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. PLEASE REFER TO THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FORECAST AND OTHER DETAILS.  
 
IT WILL NOT BE A MUGGY/HUMID AS DEW POINTS GRADUALLY DROP  
EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
COOLER NIGHTS COMPARED TO RECENT ONES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURING A FULL-  
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND  
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN US. PER THE LATEST GEFS, THIS RIDGE IS  
FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2 SD AT H500. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING  
TEMPERATURES TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH H850 TEMPS  
AVERAGING AROUND 15-18C. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S  
IN THE VALLEYS, POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BY  
SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY INTO  
TUESDAY, SO IT'LL FEEL QUITE SUMMER-Y. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW  
LOW TEMPS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE  
40S.  
 
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE ABOVE SCENARIO HAS TO DO WITH  
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. BY THE LONG TERM PERIOD, JOSE WILL BE  
POST-TROPICAL AND LIKELY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, BUT THERE IS STILL  
UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS PATH. THERE ARE A NON-TRIVIAL NUMBER OF  
SOLUTIONS THAT DRIFT POST-TC JOSE BACK WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS,  
WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SHOWERS  
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY ONWARD. HOWEVER,  
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY AS EVEN IF A  
WESTWARD DRIFT OCCURS, IT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR  
FORECAST AREA. FINALLY, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TC MARIA TOWARD  
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT MOVES POLEWARD IN THE VICINITY OF 75W.  
STILL LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND TRACK, WITH CONSENSUS  
KEEPING ITS IMPACTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG  
TERM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
FOR THE MOST PART, LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE EXCEPTIONS. TO START MVFR CEILINGS  
CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT KPSF AND KPOU. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO  
CHANGE MUCH INTO TONIGHT. PRESENCE OF LOWER CLOUDS AND BREEZE  
SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR BR/FG AT THESE SITES. KGFL  
SHOULD SEE LEAST CLOUDS AND WINDS TRENDING TO CALM OVERNIGHT.  
THESE CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TYPICAL  
AUTUMN IFR FG. FINALLY A LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB THROUGH THE NIGHT  
SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 14-15Z THURSDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG  
WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO  
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.  
 
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S  
TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WESTERN  
NEW ENGLAND. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WILL OCCUR  
TONIGHT. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH  
GUSTS INTO THE 20S TODAY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL  
DISTRICT WITH LIGHTER SPEED TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL  
NOT BE AS STRONG THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. AN EXTENDED  
STRETCH OF FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS  
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...IAA  
NEAR TERM...IAA/OKEEFE/JPV  
SHORT TERM...IAA  
LONG TERM...THOMPSON  
AVIATION...OKEEFE  
FIRE WEATHER...IAA  
HYDROLOGY...IAA  
 
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