371  
FXUS61 KALY 220802  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN  
ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A  
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH MANY LOCATIONS WARMING  
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, WITH LOWER 50S IN THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA, LEADING TO STRONG  
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S  
AND LOWER 30S, AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING  
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES  
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN  
TODAY, IN THE MID 60S. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS  
LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
OUR RECENT TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE MID  
WEEK PERIOD.  
 
STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUT OFF LOW  
SLOWLY TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL STRONG SHORT WAVE FROM ALBERTA  
CANADA ARRIVES AND ASSISTS WITH STEERING THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST. THIS  
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO  
WEDNESDAY. AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE  
ATLANTIC AS V-COMPONENT OF THE H850 WIND MAGNITUDES APPROACH 2-3  
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE PWAT ANOMALIES ARE  
ONLY ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL, THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS  
SUGGESTS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE  
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE REST OF THE REGION.  
 
AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST, SURFACE LOW REFLECTION IS EXPECTED  
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME  
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. THIS WILL  
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  
 
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK (THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY) AS WE SHOULD HAVE A MAINLY DRY DAY. HOWEVER,  
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS QUICKLY APPROACHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST  
WEEKEND OF APRIL WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR SHOWERS.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL  
WITH PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH VFR IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS  
TAF FORECAST CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIR MASS WITH  
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN BE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING  
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT THIS  
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND RECOVER TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT  
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
WINDS WILL WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT,  
THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE FROM HEAVIER  
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK.  
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A MODERATING  
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOWMELT IN THE  
MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAINLY  
IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE  
INTO THURSDAY.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS/JVM  
NEAR TERM...JVM  
SHORT TERM...JVM  
LONG TERM...BGM  
AVIATION...BGM  
FIRE WEATHER...JVM  
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM  
 
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