676  
FXUS61 KALY 301046  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
646 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. A DRY DAY IS FINALLY IN STORE THURSDAY  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 630 AM EDT, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER  
40S TO MID 50S.  
 
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NYS INTO NORTH  
CENTRAL PA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE  
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW  
IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  
 
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, A BOUNDARY SEPARATING  
COOL, MOIST AIR TO THE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION, WITH  
WARMER AIR TO THE WEST, IS LOCATED FROM WEST CENTRAL NYS INTO  
PA. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE APPROACH OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING  
FROM THE FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO IGNITE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NYS/PA THIS  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
LOW LEVEL STABILITY IS QUITE STRONG ACROSS OUR REGION DUE TO THE  
COOL/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE TOUGH TO  
DISLODGE TODAY, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS LOW LEVEL COOL AIR  
TO BE DISLODGED MUCH, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WIND FLOW BELOW H925  
TO REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AS  
WELL AS STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50+ KT, MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS.  
 
BASED ON CURRENT THINKING, IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL  
IGNITE ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL NYS AND PA, WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE  
CLOUDS AND GREATER SURFACE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. THERE IS  
A POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY ORGANIZE IN THESE AREAS  
INTO FASTER MOVING CLUSTERS, CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS.  
HOWEVER, AS THEY ADVANCE INTO WESTERN AREAS OF OUR AREA, THEY  
SHOULD WEAKEN, DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER THEY  
ENCOUNTER. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING STRONG WIND GUSTS  
REACHING THE SURFACE IN SOME WESTERN AREAS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN  
SUFFICIENTLY, HENCE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,  
MAINLY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, EXISTS FOR AREAS FROM  
THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W.  
 
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED, HOWEVER, AS SOME SURFACE  
DESTABILIZATION COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN  
MOHAWK VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS, AND PERHAPS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY IF  
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE  
THREAT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND FARTHER EAST.  
 
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ANY CONVECTION  
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST  
ADIRONDACKS, WHICH COULD ENHANCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE  
CLOSED/UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES IS SOMEWHAT  
SIMILAR TO A NEUTRALLY TILTED 'TYPE B' AS EXAMINED IN CSTAR III  
RESEARCH, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES, BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION.  
 
HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE  
EXPECTATION FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH  
MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT ONLY  
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN  
GREENS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS, CLOSER TO  
70, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE  
VALLEY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TONIGHT, ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT  
TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES  
LATER TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID  
50S.  
 
WEDNESDAY, AS THE WIND FLOW BELOW H925 BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST,  
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR  
DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO  
GREATER SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR, BEFORE ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE  
AFTERNOON. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY POTENTIAL, AND STRONG WINDS  
PERSISTING ALOFT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD,  
IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, IF NOT  
SEVERE, WILL BE GREATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH  
OF THE REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR WEDNESDAY, AND WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED IF AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE UPGRADED TO  
SLIGHT RISK WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND  
GUSTS, WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS LOWERING TO 7000-8500 FT AGL,  
HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER/DEEPER CONVECTION THAT  
DEVELOPS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED MENTION OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS  
FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90. COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF  
I-90 WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM OVERALL FORCING AND  
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE  
LOWER/MID 70S IN VALLEYS, WITH 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD  
TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM. IT WILL  
REMAIN COOL, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE THE APPROACH OF MORE UPPER  
ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT TIMED FOR LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BUT AROUND 60 TO LOWER  
60S HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
SOURCES OF GUIDANCE NOT IN EXACT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A COLD  
FRONT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SO, INCLUDING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY  
IN THE 70S BUT MID 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
BEYOND FRIDAY MORE DISAGREEMENTS IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND  
ENSEMBLES. THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY  
BEFORE POTENTIALLY STRONGER UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN  
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF  
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BUT AROUND 60  
TO LOWER 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR RAIN  
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT BIG DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TRACK  
OF UPPER ENERGY AS IT AFFECTS OUR REGION. SO, JUST INDICATING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNTIL THE AREAL COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY OF RAIN CAN BE DETERMINED AS WE GET CLOSER.  
 
WHETHER WE GET A LITTLE RAIN OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, THE NEAR TO  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GENERAL CLOUDINESS AND WETTER THAN  
NORMAL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S TO  
LOWER 70S BUT LOWER 60S HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S WITH  
LOWER 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S SOUTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH  
EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING,  
ESPECIALLY KPSF. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST, AND  
AFFECT KGFL/KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND  
EARLY EVENING. SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR IN ANY STRONGER  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, AFTER ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF IN THE  
EVENING, EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR CIGS. THE  
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER 08Z/WED.  
 
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 8-12 KT BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
SOME STRONGER GUSTS, POSSIBLY TO 20-25+ KT, COULD OCCUR AT KALB  
IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10  
KT TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
WINDS MAY BE MUCH STRONGER, AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND  
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.  
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. A DRY DAY IS FINALLY IN STORE THURSDAY  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RADAR ESTIMATES AND SPOTTER OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST 0.25" TO UP TO  
1.00" OF RAIN FELL MONDAY, WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER  
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
LIKELY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A HALF INCH OR BELOW, BUT LOCALLY A HALF  
INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN  
ADIRONDACKS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY YET AGAIN ON  
WEDNESDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.75" EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD  
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR URBAN, SMALL  
STREAM, AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT  
ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
THE ASOS AT THE PITTSFIELD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MA AND GLENS  
FALLS, NY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE OUTAGES WITH HOURLY METARS  
OCCASIONALLY OR CONTINUOUSLY MISSING. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL  
COMMUNICATIONS ARE FULLY RESTORED.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/THOMPSON  
NEAR TERM...KL  
SHORT TERM...KL  
LONG TERM...NAS  
AVIATION...IAA/KL  
FIRE WEATHER...KL/THOMPSON  
HYDROLOGY...KL/THOMPSON  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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