487
NOUS70 KSEW 242303
OEPZSE
TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CWSU AUBURN WA
250 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
DISCUSSION
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE THE CEILINGS AROUND SEA. A WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA THIS EVENING ON ITS
WAY INTO BC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SEA...THE CURRENT TREND FOR THE FORECAST THIS EVENING LOOKS GOOD
WITH INITIALLY BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS...RISING TO AROUND 020. I
AGREE WITH THE DISCUSSIONS ON IFR COMING BACK IN 10-12Z
TONIGHT...THEN BREAKING OUT 16-17Z. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY 00Z...AND RAIN SHOULD NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SSW-SSE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
PDX...VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THE NAM SHOWS SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN
THE MORNING...BUT I WOULD LEAN AGAINST IT. OUTLYING AREAS AND AREAS
FARTHER NORTH INTO WA LOOK MORE LIKELY FOR FOG. WINDS GENERALLY
SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 5-8KT.
JMV
&
KSEA CURRENT ARRIVAL RATE...38 SOUTH FLOW
KSEA WX DELAYS...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
IMPORTANT NUMBERS FOR KSEA....
CIG/WX VSBY AAR IMPACT
>6000 >10 48-52 NO ARTCC PROBLEMS
4100-6000 >6 44-46 LMTD VAPS (METER DELAYS)
3000-4000 >6 40-44 LMTD/NO VAPS (TMA, CFR)
1000-3000 >6 40-44 NO VAPS (TMA, CFR AND/OR GDP)
100-900 1-5 30-38 MOD DELAYS (TMA, CFR, AND/OR GDP)
<100 <1 28-30 MAJOR DELAYS (TMA, CFR, AND/OR GDP)
FZRA/FZDZ/SN 00-28 MAJOR DELAYS FOR PLOWING/DEICING
(TMA,CFR, AND/OR GDP)
TSRA VRBL DELAYS (TMA,CFR,GS AND/OR GDP)
WINDS(2-6K)>30KT 24-32 MAJOR DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP)
WINDSHIFTS 20MIN DELAYS/RWY SWITCH/FLOW CHG
KPDX CURRENT ARRIVAL RATE...40-60 EAST FLOW
KPDX WX DELAYS...NONE
IMPORTANT NUMBERS FOR KPDX....
CIG/WX VSBY AAR IMPACT
>4100 >6 60 NO ARTCC PROBLEMS
1000-4000 >6 40 LMTD/NO VAPS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP)
100-900 >1-5 24 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP)
<100 <1 24 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP)
FZRA/FZDZ/SN 20 MAJOR DELAYS FOR PLOWING/DEICING
(TMA,CFR, AND/OR GDP)
TSRA VRB DELAYS (TMA,CFR,GS AND/OR GDP)
SFC WD 170-230 DEG, 32 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP)
WS>20KT, CIG>=4000 FT
SFC WD 170-230 DEG, 24 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFP AND/OR GDP)
WS>20KT, CIG<4000 FT
SFC WINDSHIFTS 10MIN DELAYS/RWY SWITCH/FLOW CHG
STG E SFC WINDS WITH 48 PSBL MINOR DELAYS
STG S-SW WINDS ABV
1500 FT AGL
MIT=MILES IN TRAIL GDP=GROUND DELAY PROGRAM GS=GROUND STOP
CFR=CALL FOR RELEASE TMA=TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ADVISOR
VAPS=VISUAL APPROACHES
END
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