152
NOUS70 KSEW 082305
OEPZSE
TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CWSU AUBURN WA
255 PM PST SUN NOV 08 2009
DISCUSSION
THE WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE WA COAST ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WESTERN WA/NORTHWESTERN OR INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER
ABOUT 15Z AT SEA/PDX AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.
AT SEA...SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z...RETURNING
AROUND 15Z MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD BE 025-030 UNTIL THE SHOWERS
PASS...THEN VFR. AT 15Z CIGS SHOULD FALL BACK TO 025-030 IN RAIN.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AROUND
21Z WHEN THEY SHIFT TO SSW.
AT PDX...SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z...RETURNING
AROUND 15Z MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD BE 020-030 UNTIL THE SHOWERS
PASS...THEN VFR. AT 15Z THE CIGS FALL TO 020-030 IN RAIN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SE INITIALLY...BECOMING MORE ESE BY 03Z...THEN MORE
SE TO S AROUND 21Z AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
JMV
KSEA CURRENT ARRIVAL RATE...44 SOUTH FLOW
KSEA WX DELAYS...SHOWERS
IMPORTANT NUMBERS FOR KSEA....
CIG/WX VSBY AAR IMPACT
>6000 >10 48-52 NO ARTCC PROBLEMS
4100-6000 >6 44-46 LMTD VAPS (METER DELAYS)
3000-4000 >6 40-44 LMTD/NO VAPS (TMA, CFR)
1000-3000 >6 40-44 NO VAPS (TMA, CFR AND/OR GDP)
100-900 1-5 30-38 MOD DELAYS (TMA, CFR, AND/OR GDP)
<100 <1 28-30 MAJOR DELAYS (TMA, CFR, AND/OR GDP)
FZRA/FZDZ/SN 00-28 MAJOR DELAYS FOR PLOWING/DEICING
(TMA,CFR, AND/OR GDP)
TSRA VRBL DELAYS (TMA,CFR,GS AND/OR GDP)
WINDS(2-6K)>30KT 24-32 MAJOR DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP)
WINDSHIFTS 20MIN DELAYS/RWY SWITCH/FLOW CHG
KPDX CURRENT ARRIVAL RATE...40-60 EAST FLOW
KPDX WX DELAYS...SHOWERS
IMPORTANT NUMBERS FOR KPDX....
CIG/WX VSBY AAR IMPACT
>4100 >6 60 NO ARTCC PROBLEMS
1000-4000 >6 40 LMTD/NO VAPS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP)
100-900 >1-5 24 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP)
<100 <1 24 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP)
FZRA/FZDZ/SN 20 MAJOR DELAYS FOR PLOWING/DEICING
(TMA,CFR, AND/OR GDP)
TSRA VRB DELAYS (TMA,CFR,GS AND/OR GDP)
SFC WD 170-230 DEG, 32 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP)
WS>20KT, CIG>=4000 FT
SFC WD 170-230 DEG, 24 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFP AND/OR GDP)
WS>20KT, CIG<4000 FT
SFC WINDSHIFTS 10MIN DELAYS/RWY SWITCH/FLOW CHG
STG E SFC WINDS WITH 48 PSBL MINOR DELAYS
STG S-SW WINDS ABV
1500 FT AGL
MIT=MILES IN TRAIL GDP=GROUND DELAY PROGRAM GS=GROUND STOP
CFR=CALL FOR RELEASE TMA=TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ADVISOR
VAPS=VISUAL APPROACHES
END
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