214
UXUS97 KPQR 181330
SRGPQR
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - PORTLAND OR
630 AM PDT MON NOV 18 2013
THIS SOARING FORECAST IS FOR WESTERN OREGON
WITH SPECIFIC INDICES FOR THE GREATER SALEM AND MEDFORD AREAS
FOR CURRENT FLIGHT CONDITIONS...FORECASTS...AND ADVISORIES...
CONSULT YOUR LOCAL BRIEFING OUTLET OR FLIGHT SERVICE STATION.
**************************************************************************
LOCAL INDICES FOR SALEM:
THERMAL INDEX....MINUS SIGN INDICATES INSTABILITY
5000 FT ASL........3.5
6000 FT ASL........5.0
10000 FT ASL........13.5
15000 FT ASL........18.5
HEIGHT OF THE - 3 INDEX...................700 FT ASL
TOP OF THE LIFT...........................2100 FT ASL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT SALEM...(DEG F)... 56
FIRST USABLE LIFT..............(DEG F)... 60
TOP OF LIFT....................(FT MSL).. 2100
SOARING INDEX..................(FPM).... -147
MAXIMUM LIFT...................(FPM)..... 150
AFTERNOON WINDS ALOFT FORECAST
MSL (FT) WIND/TEMP
3000 2037/
6000 2343/-01
9000 2446/-03
10000 2447/-04
12000 2548/-08
14000 2548/-12
16000 2549/-16
**************************************************************************
NZUS56 KMFR 142228
WRKMFR
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVING INLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
IN THE LAST FEW RUNS, MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND MOISTER WITH
THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REBUILD THURSDAY. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE WEAK AND BRIEF WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY CONCERN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT FORECASTS
HAVE TRENDED MUCH STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY AND SHOW THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENING THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING, BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN MODEL
VARIABILITY REMAINS A CONCERN.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE CORRECT, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG COAST. CURRENT GFS FORECASTS SHOW A
POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WITH THIS FRONT TAPPING INTO DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE LATEST DGEX AND GFS RUNS BOTH SHOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS OVER CURRY COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO, WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY BRING SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND RIVER RISES,
ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL AREAS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO THE COAST
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE DURATION OF
THESE STRONG WINDS OVER THE COAST AND GALES OVER THE WATERS ARE
DEPENDENT ON HOW SLOWLY THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. OVER INLAND AREAS
EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE RAIN WITH AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITAION IN THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE EPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH, GENERALLY AROUND
5000 TO 7000 FEET. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SUMMER LAKE AND SHASTA VALLEY AREAS.
CC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page