871
AXUS73 KMPX 221638
DGTMPX
MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
230200-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST FRI MAR 22 2013
...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
MOST OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS THE MOST OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS STORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR REGION FROM MID
FEBRUARY TO MARCH 17TH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD
HAVE BEEN ABOVE HISTORICAL AVERAGES STATEWIDE. AMOUNTS DURING THE
LAST 30 DAYS HAVE VARIED FROM A HALF AN INCH IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA
TO AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
FOR MANY AREAS IN THE STATE THIS WAS 150 TO 300 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL. FEBRUARY TOTALS SET NEW ALL TIME HIGH RECORDS ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE
HALF AND TWO INCHES OF MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WAS UP TO
TWICE THE NORMAL VALUES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE FELL AS SNOW...OR IN
SOME CASES SLEET AND RAIN.
DESPITE THE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THE SOILS
REMAIN VERY DRY. WINTERTIME PRECIPITATION TYPICALLY REMAINS ON THE
SURFACE AS SNOW OR ICE AND DOES NOT SOAK INTO THE FROZEN GROUND.
THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE RARELY SEEN
DURING OUR WINTER MONTHS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
LOCAL AREA AFFECTED.
..MINNESOTA
EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
ST CLOUD TO ALBERT LEA AND IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LINE...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES...ARE UNDER SEVERE /D2/
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXTEND ALONG A
LINE FROM FERGUS FALLS THROUGH DETROIT LAKES AS WELL AS EAST OF
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALSO HAD MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
..WISCONSIN
SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAINED IN PLACE OVER VIRTUALLY ALL
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THAT IS UNDER MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SOIL CONDITIONS.
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CURRENT
VALUES IN THE BOTTOM 5TH TO 10TH PERCENTILE OF RECORDS. SOIL
MOISTURE ANOMALIES THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN ARE RUNNING 2 TO
7 INCHES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS.
RIVER FLOWS REMAIN LOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST
REPORTING FLOWS IN COMPARISON TO NORMAL ENCOMPASSING STREAMS FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE LEVELS IN
MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
MINNESOTA...
THERE HAVE BEEN NO UPDATES TO THE FIRE DANGER RATING SINCE DECEMBER
13, 2012. AT THAT TIME THE FIRE DANGER RATING WAS LOW. BURNING
RESTRICTIONS AS OF JANUARY 10, 2013 INDICATED THAT BURNING PERMITS
ARE REQUIRED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON BURNING PERMITS IN MINNESOTA...VISIT THE
MINNESOTA DNR WEB SITE OR CALL 1-888-MINNDNR...OR IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO CALL 651-296-6157. IN WISCONSIN... VISIT THE
WISCONSIN DNR WEB SITE OR CALL 1-888-WIS-BURN /947-2876/.
WISCONSIN...
AS OF MARCH 20TH...THE FIRE DANGER RATING FOR ALL OF WISCONSIN WAS
LOW. PLEASE VISIT THE WISCONSIN DNR WEB SITE FOR CURRENT BURNING
RESTRICTIONS OR CALL THE NUMBER LISTED BELOW.
1-888-WIS-BURN (947-2876).
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE LAST 10 DAYS OF MARCH WILL FEATURE A VERY BENIGN PATTERN WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. IF ALL OF
THAT PRECIPITATION FELL AS SNOW WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT 3 INCHES OR
LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.
THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL THROUGH JUNE CALLS FOR A 33-38 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONE
THIRD OF MINNESOTA AND MOST OF WISCONSIN. THE REMAINDER OF MINNESOTA
HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION....EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WISCONSIN WHERE THE
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE 33 TO 37 PERCENT.
HYDROLOGICAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FROM MARCH 21ST TO JUNE 30,
2013 IS INDICATING A LIKELY IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA.
RIVER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE
SPRING THAW GETS UNDERWAY DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.
AS OF MARCH 23TH...ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE
SUMMER.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED BY THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL...OR SOONER
IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS CHANGE NOTICEABLY.
RELATED WEB SITES...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/INDEX.JSP
WISCONSIN STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE...
HTTP://WWW.AOS.WISC.EDU/~SCO/
MINNESOTA CLIMATOLOGY WORKING GROUP...HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/
DETAILED CROP INFORMATION AT USDA PUBLICATIONS WEB SITE...
HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/PUBLICATIONS/STATE_CROP_PROGRESS_AND_
CONDITION/INDEX.ASP
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION:
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/CPC...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER
..THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS
AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES
..STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA
USACE AND
USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS REPORT PLEASE
CONTACT:
DIANE COOPER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
CHANHASSEN, MN 55317
952-361-6708
DIANE.COOPER@NOAA.GOV
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