163  
FXUS63 KDLH 180000  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS  
EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY. THE  
FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS DECREASED AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND CERTAINLY NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, WE'RE  
NOT QUITE READY TO DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER NORTHWEST  
WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD FLOODING DOES CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN  
WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CARLTON AND PINE COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA NEAR ELY  
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NEBRASKA. THE FRONT WILL BE  
ON THE MOVE CLEARING OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH INSTABILITY  
AND FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE STORMS HAVE  
BEEN BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2  
INCHES IN PLACE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN A QUICK 1 TO 1.5  
INCHES FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ADDING TO THE TOTALS. RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL OF 2.5 TO  
NEARLY 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS OVER CROW WING/AITKIN COUNTIES.  
SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 4 OR 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A  
FEW SPOTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S RAIN AND  
ADDING IN TONIGHTS. THE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE GREATEST THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO  
DIMINISH BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS FROM NORTHWEST BAYFIELD COUNTY  
INTO SOUTHERN PINE COUNTY.  
 
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN  
MONDAY MORNING THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
FOR MOST AREAS. OFF LAKE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID WEEK  
AND LAST INTO LATE WEEK.  
 
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE IN HOW THEY HANDLE AN UPPER LOW FRIDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BRINGS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH  
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT  
FURTHER SOUTH. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND HAVE RAIN CHANCES  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST  
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WERE VFR OVER FAR  
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FURTHER  
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BUT WILL DIMINISH THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT.  
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS LATER  
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE FOG IN SPOTS  
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IFR/MVFR.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 58 75 54 77 / 60 10 0 0  
INL 51 77 50 81 / 20 0 0 0  
BRD 59 79 58 78 / 50 10 10 10  
HYR 61 77 56 78 / 80 20 10 10  
ASX 57 73 49 73 / 80 10 0 0  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.  
 
MN...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MELDE  
SHORT TERM...MELDE  
LONG TERM...MELDE  
AVIATION...MELDE  
 
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