262  
FXUS63 KDLH 220741  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
241 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY  
THIS MORNING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY/COOL FRONT EXTENDING EAST  
THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED  
FROM NEAR GRAND FORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND  
MOVE INTO ONTARIO THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL  
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST  
MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS MINNESOTA,  
ONTARIO, AND SOUTH DAKOTA SEEM TO BE AIDED BY A STRONG SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WINDS ALOFT  
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HRRR AGREES WITH  
THIS SOLUTION. IF THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE PANS OUT, STORMS IN  
OUR FORECAST AREA MAY BE NEAR THEIR PEAK INTENSITY. THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS WILL BE QUITE TELLING. MANY OF THE OTHER HIGH RES MODELS,  
INCLUDING THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOW THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONVECTION  
CONGEALING INTO AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS, MOVING ACROSS OUR  
SOUTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. GOES-16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY  
SUPPORTS THE ANALYSIS OF THE RAP AND HRRR WITH THE LOCATION AND  
STRENGTH OF THE LLJ, BUT THE TREND OF THE LAST HOUR HAS BEEN FOR  
VEERING WINDS WITHOUT MUCH DECREASE IN INTENSITY. GIVEN THE  
SATELLITE DATA AND THE BROAD CONSENSUS TOWARD CONTINUED STORM  
ACTIVITY, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND KEPT  
POPS HIGH ACROSS MY SOUTH THROUGH LATE MORNING.  
 
THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND  
SATURDAY. WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND EFFICIENT  
MIXING, NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND  
TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.  
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-  
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX  
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES, AS WELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, SOME MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE.  
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY WITH PARTLY  
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM  
ONCE AGAIN OVER EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
 
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WILL  
ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL ALSO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY AS A RESULT  
OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PWAT VALUES, AROUND 1.5 INCHES,  
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WILL REMAIN IN PLACE  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A HIGH  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MOISTURE PRESENT,  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, HEAVY  
RAIN, POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME FLOODING, WILL BE A THREAT OVER  
PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST OVER  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWEST.  
HIGHS THERE WILL BE IN THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES.  
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES OVER FAR NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE  
NORTHLAND WHERE CLOUD COVER AND STORM/SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE  
GREATEST.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS LATER MONDAY  
INTO TUESDAY AND A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND THE FRONT WILL  
FINALLY MAKE IT TO OUR EASTERN ZONES OR PASS JUST EAST OF THERE.  
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH  
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS WELL. STORM TOTAL  
RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE  
HIGHER AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE FAR  
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO  
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY AFFECTING THE SAME AREAS.  
 
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END FOR MOST AREAS BY  
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE  
MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY. THERE WILL BE MAINLY LOW CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHLAND  
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING JUST  
SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD  
OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS WILL  
THEN SHIFT TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF OUR  
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE LARGELY VFR  
CONDITIONS, THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME MVFR TO IFR CIG'S AND  
VSBY'S.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 80 67 78 60 / 50 40 40 60  
INL 72 60 63 52 / 60 70 40 70  
BRD 86 65 73 60 / 60 40 60 80  
HYR 89 68 85 65 / 60 30 30 40  
ASX 89 69 85 62 / 60 30 20 40  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
LSZ140>145.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HUYCK  
LONG TERM...MELDE  
AVIATION...DAP  
 
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