166  
FXUS63 KDLH 200526  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
1126 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG  
AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. IMPACTS WITH  
THIS SNOW SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AS ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE  
BEEN OBSERVED ON AREA WEBCAMS. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE  
NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER OUR  
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE  
THE TREND THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH MONDAY  
MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UP MONDAY  
AS WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY, BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.  
HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S OVER  
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD, TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER OUR  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT.  
SOME OF THE HIGH-RES, SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS GOING A BIT COOLER  
COMPARED TO SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING, SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME MELTING OF THE  
SNOW PACK TOMORROW.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW  
MIX, WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHEN A MID-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  
THALER QG OMEGA PROGS INDICATE THE BEST LIFT OVER MANITOBA AND  
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA, AHEAD OF THE WAVE. ALSO, THERE IS A CORRIDOR  
OF STRONGER 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL  
BORDER REGION. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH  
APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
A COLD SNAP WILL COME EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT MORE SEASONAL WEATHER  
IS EXPECTED AROUND THANKSGIVING. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM COULD BRING A  
SLOPPY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
ANOTHER COLD SNAP WILL HIT THE NORTHLAND WITH THAT PASSING SYSTEM  
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH IN CANADA MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW'S ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH  
THE NORTHLAND LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING OF  
TUESDAY. BRACE YOURSELVES! THIS FRONT WILL NOT ONLY BRING RELATIVELY  
STRONG AND DEEP MIXING, WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS WIND SPEEDS WITHIN THE  
MIXING LAYER. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG PRESSURE RISES. CLOUD COVER  
WILL MINIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING (AND THE RESULTING BOUNDARY LAYER  
DECOUPLING) OVERNIGHT AND HELP MAINTAIN STRONG MIXING. THE COLD AIR  
WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY, SO THE MIXING WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WE INCREASED THE WIND FORECAST FOR MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND  
GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, WITH STRAY  
GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO  
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, AND ON THE WEAKER RANGE OF THOSE WINDS IN  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY  
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE DAY  
BEFORE, BUT THAT'S NOT THE BIGGER STORY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  
 
THE PASSING CLIPPER AND FRONT WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO FAR  
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, AND LIGHT LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE  
SNOWFALL FORECAST IS PRETTY LIGHT, ABOUT LESS THAN AN INCH.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL EASE OFF THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. WEDNESDAY  
WILL BE WARMER, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MUCH LIGHTER WIND FLOW. A  
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE  
UPPER MIDWEST OR CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT  
MIGHT BRING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE LATEST  
GFS AND EUROPEAN SUGGEST THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL OVER THE  
AREAS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WOULD MOST LIKELY  
BE VERY LIGHT SNOW.  
 
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY.  
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOMEWHAT SUNNY DAY. COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER  
NORTHERN MINNESOTA COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. HIGHS SHOULD  
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE LOW 30S FROM  
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  
 
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER COULD  
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THE LATEST GFS, EUROPEAN, AND  
CANADIAN ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN  
CANADA, WHEN EARLIER MODEL RUNS (LIKE THE EUROPEAN) WERE TAKING THE  
LOW THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THIS MORE NORTHERN TRACK MEANS WARMER AIR  
FOR THE NORTHLAND, AND KEEPING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN CANADA.  
HOWEVER, THE NORTHLAND COULD STILL GET A SLOPPY MIX OF RAIN AND  
SNOW. THE CLIPPER'S ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD SNAP  
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE  
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH  
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR. WE  
ONLY MENTION 6SM IN FOG AT KHYR/KHIB AS LOW VSBYS LOOK UNLIKELY.  
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO COLD AIR  
ADVECTION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT. VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE  
NORTHLAND LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO  
WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE  
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER FAR NORTHERN  
MINNESOTA WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 16 40 19 22 / 0 10 10 10  
INL 9 38 16 19 / 0 30 50 30  
BRD 22 44 20 24 / 0 0 10 10  
HYR 14 44 22 25 / 0 0 10 10  
ASX 17 45 25 26 / 0 0 10 30  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR  
LSZ121-140>148.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JTS  
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI  
AVIATION...MELDE  
 
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