296
FXUS63 KDLH 090953
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009
DISCUSSION
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN OUR WRN AND CENTRAL CWA...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED. AS CLEARING LINE PROGRESSES EAST...WE EXPECT
THE FOG TO DEVELOP EASTWARD AS WELL...BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE
MON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MON AND
TUE...BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND QUITE MILD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MID NOVEMBER.
DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE RUNNING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
EXTENDED
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...KNOCKING DOWN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST. BECAUSE THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND ISOLD/SCTRD. RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THAT BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM/FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUR MN
ZONES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS TAKING THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE EAST ACROSS NWRN AND THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP THE PRECIP ACROSS OUR MN
ZONES AND EXTREME NWRN WI. BECAUSE OF THIS DISPARITY...HAVE OPTED TO
GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POP SOLUTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEN HAVE POPS LOWERING AS BOTH MODELS TAKE THE MOISTURE
EITHER TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LOW LIFTING OUT OF
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING A WIDE AREA
OF PRECIP TO THE REGION. SINCE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY DOESNT
SEEM TO THE FIT THE TREND...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE DRY FORECAST
OF THE GFS FOR SUNDAY.
POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 53 31 54 33 / 0 0 0 10
INL 49 26 52 34 / 0 0 0 20
BRD 53 26 57 36 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 57 27 54 32 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 55 28 55 34 / 0 0 0 10
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
LONKA/BERDES
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