304  
FXUS63 KDLH 182312  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
612 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH  
COOL TEMPERATURES. A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE ARROWHEAD AND  
WISCONSIN SNOWBELTS.  
 
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT  
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  
 
- A LARGER SPRING STORM IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
WHICH COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND  
GUSTY WINDS.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL  
BORDER AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS  
EVENING AND A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO  
RESULT IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, AND SOME  
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, MAINLY  
IN THE ARROWHEAD (20-30% CHANCE). A COLD FRONT WILL PASS  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN A WIND  
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING  
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS  
MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE ARROWHEAD TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH  
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL MIXING  
THAT COULD RESULT IN HORIZONTAL ROLL CONVECTION. WITH PLENTY OF  
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, HOWEVER, I'M NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH  
FOR COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW. A 10-15% CHANCE FOR  
FLURRIES IS IN THE FORECAST.  
 
THE OTHER STORY FOR TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY IS THE OVERALL DRY (ALBEIT COOL) WEATHER PATTERN  
EXPECTED AND IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH  
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TUESDAY, WHICH  
MAY KEEP MIN RH FROM FALLING LOWER THAN 30% DESPITE WINDS  
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS WILL BE  
GENERALLY DRY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO  
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE LESS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
A BIT OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN IRON COUNTY, MAINLY  
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (~40% CHANCE FOR ~1" OR LESS).  
 
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DRY WEATHER DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE  
MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO 20-25% AND POSSIBLY LOWER  
LOCALLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST  
WEDNESDAY (GUSTS TO ~20 MPH), BUT MUCH LIGHTER THURSDAY.  
 
A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LOOKING LIKELY STARTING  
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON  
TRACK TO BRING SOME SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE BROAD  
CONSENSUS FAVORS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN WITH THE BEST  
CHANCES (~60%) FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO  
KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRACK OF THIS THOUGH, BECAUSE A WOBBLE TO THE  
NORTH OR SOUTH COULD BRING THE PRIMARY AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AND  
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL FURTHER NORTH INTO OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.  
CURRENT FORECAST PWATS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH ARE  
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE  
REGION. ANOTHER COMPONENT OF UNCERTAINTY IS LAKE INFLUENCE WITH  
A COLD AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE (850 HPA TEMPS AROUND  
-15C OR SO). NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING SOME LAKE-ENHANCEMENT TO  
THE SOUTH SHORE AND POSSIBLY INTO THE TWIN PORTS DEPENDING ON  
THE STORM TRACK TRENDS.  
 
WE MAY CATCH A BREAK AROUND SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER STORM MAY BE  
ON THE HORIZON AROUND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE'S MUCH  
MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ONE GIVEN THAT IT'S STILL JUST UNDER  
A WEEK AWAY, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COLORADO-STYLE LOW TO  
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST AND TAKE A TRACK THAT COULD BE  
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, MIXED PRECIPITATION,  
AND GUSTY WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST, POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE  
NORTHLAND. IF ANYONE HAS TRAVEL PLANS AROUND THIS TIME, BE  
ENCOURAGED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST, AS IT IS  
EXPECTED TO CHANGE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE  
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS A  
COLD FRONT CROSSES. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS  
LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT  
BRD, FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE  
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND LESSEN THE THREAT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK WHERE  
WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY LESSEN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE,  
MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, BUT  
THEY WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE  
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST  
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS THEN  
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN AS THEY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE  
DAY TUESDAY. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY  
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WINDS MAY APPROACH OR REACH GALE FORCE,  
MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE NORTH SHORE (GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND  
PORTAGE) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED EVERYWHERE THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY  
EVENING FOR SOME AREAS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TUESDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND  
PORTAGE.  
 
 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT  
TUESDAY FOR LSZ121.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ140.  
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR  
LSZ140.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>148-  
150.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...JDS  
AVIATION...WOLFE  
MARINE...JDS  
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