625
FXUS63 KDLH 051542
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1042 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
UPDATE
AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 231 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK
OF THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO CHOKE ON
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 0C TO 10C RANGE OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL
WILL NOT APPEAR UNTIL THE SHORT WAVES GET INTO MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. ATTM HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BUILD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND ALL OF MINNESOTA TODAY AND MONDAY. DUAL STORM TRACKS...ONE
ALONG A PERSISTENT FRONT IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER
THE MANITOBA LAKES WILL KEEP MOISTURE AWAY FROM US THROUGH MONDAY.
EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TOWARD
MID WEEK AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH EJECTS AND BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS STILL IN MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES...AS 00Z ECMWF
TRACKS LOW CENTER NORTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA...AND 00Z GFS KEEPS
CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING STRONG...WITH SOUTHEAST TRACKING OF LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS. CONSENSUS IS TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH POPS...AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT GRIDS DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW SKIRTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 76 46 75 52 / 10 10 10 10
INL 76 42 79 48 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 81 51 80 58 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 79 44 81 50 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 75 46 73 51 / 10 10 10 10
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
DAP/STEWART
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page