559  
FXUS63 KDLH 240543  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
1143 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INVOLVES THE  
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA  
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S WINTER STORM HAS KEPT  
MOST OF MINNESOTA SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. NORTHERLY FLOW  
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SUPPORTED STRATUS AND SNOW SHOWERS  
DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE  
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER NEAR THE PAS. A NEARLY STATIONARY  
FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE TROUGH THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  
 
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT MOVING  
INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE  
FRONTAL SURFACE HAS SUPPORTED AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE RED  
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO  
THE WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS  
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BACK NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY  
WESTERLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT PUSHING THE CLOUD DECK  
EAST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR A TIME. THE CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF  
AS THE STRATUS FROM THE WEST WILL ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE. COLD AIR  
WILL CONTINUE POURING ONTO LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST  
OVERNIGHT WITH LONG RESIDENCE TIMES EXPECTED. SENSIBLE HEAT AND  
MOISTURE FLUX WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER OVER THE LAKE THROUGH  
THE NIGHT. WINDS OFF THE NORTH SHORE WILL BACK SOUTHERLY AS THE  
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
RETURN FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ADVECT THE LAKE MODIFIED  
PARCELS INLAND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF  
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM TWO HARBORS TO GRAND PORTAGE DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS. BY AFTERNOON, FALLING HEIGHTS AND AN APPROACHING  
ELEVATED COOL FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD  
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. SEEDER/FEEDER  
PROCESSES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE SHOULD HELP BOOST SNOWFALL  
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE BOARD, THE  
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 2 INCHES.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON  
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH MILD TEMPERATURES  
IMPACTING THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLING DOWN ONCE MORE.  
NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
THE INITIAL PERIOD CONTINUES ON THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS DRIER  
CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  
THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH  
MONTANA AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE  
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL BE  
ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL HAVE MAX  
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S  
WHILE FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND  
LOW 40S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS DIFFER ON THE MAX  
TEMPERATURE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE SPREAD GOING WARMER INTO THE UPPER  
30S AND LOWER 40S ON FRIDAY BUT WITH RECENT SNOWFALL COVER ACROSS  
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, THINK THE MODELS ARE GOING TOO WARM ON  
TEMPERATURES AND EXTENDING HOW FAR THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXTENDS  
NORTHWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM AIR  
ADVECTION WITH LIGHT WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH  
THE PASSING OF THE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT GIVING THE RISE TO INCREASED  
LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR,  
PARTICULARLY ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY. LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO PORTIONS  
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL DIP BACK INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 20S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND  
SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE RANGE AND LOW 20S ACROSS  
WISCONSIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
WILL BRING GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHLAND TAF  
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY  
FREEZING DRIZZLE JUST WEST OF KBRD, AND WE DO EXPECT THAT SOME  
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL MOVE INTO THE KBRD VICINITY DURING  
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THIS MAY EVEN SPREAD INTO KINL  
AND KHIB OVERNIGHT AS WELL. OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO  
BECOME LARGELY MVFR TO IFR, AND THEN REMAIN MORESO IN THE MVFR  
RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME VISIBILITY  
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 7 25 14 29 / 10 20 10 0  
INL -1 24 10 29 / 20 20 10 0  
BRD 8 28 15 32 / 20 0 0 0  
HYR 5 27 10 31 / 0 10 10 0  
ASX 7 26 12 31 / 10 20 10 0  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HUYCK  
LONG TERM...LE/WM  
AVIATION...DAP  
 
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