793  
FXUS63 KDLH 181209  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
709 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE AFFECTS OF HIGH  
PRESSURE TODAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. THERE WAS AN EXTENSIVE AREA  
OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING ALONG WITH FOG. THE RAP  
WAS DOING A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THIS AND SHOWS MUCH OF THE  
FOG/STRATUS LIFTING BY 16Z AS SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY. THERE WILL  
STILL BE SMOKE AROUND TODAY AND WE OPTED TO GO WITH A PARTLY SUNNY  
SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED SMOKE. WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE  
UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES ACROSS MOST AREAS, COOLER NEAR  
LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE VALUES MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON  
HOW THICK THE SMOKE IS.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE  
NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST AREA LATE. SOME FOG WILL  
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.  
 
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND ON  
SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MUCH OF  
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BUT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY  
DRY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES  
WITH THE LOWER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA  
WHERE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS  
WILL BE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK, FOLLOWED  
BY SUNNY AND SEASONAL WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN IS  
CERTAINLY NEEDED TO MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE  
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, AND WE MAY GET THAT OPPORTUNITY LATE THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
MONDAY, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS  
WILL GIVE THE NORTHLAND SOME NEEDED RAINFALL AFTER QUITE DRY  
CONDITIONS THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED  
WITH A DEEP LOW MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES  
REGION. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE EARLY PART  
OF THE WEEK LOOKS COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO  
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW  
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE,  
BRINGING WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. THE GFS, EUROPEAN, AND CANADIAN  
MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF FOG AND LOW  
CLOUD COVER WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,  
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE  
DOMINATES THE REGION. HOWEVER, YOU MAY NOTICE HAZY SKIES AT TIMES  
BECOMES OF LOFTED SMOKE THAT ORIGINATED FROM THE WILDFIRES IN THE  
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. MORE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE  
TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 77 57 81 60 / 0 0 20 40  
INL 84 62 77 54 / 0 30 30 20  
BRD 83 60 80 60 / 0 10 40 50  
HYR 80 55 83 59 / 0 0 10 30  
ASX 77 56 84 60 / 0 0 10 30  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI  
SHORT TERM...MELDE  
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI  
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MN Page
The Nexlab WI Page Main Text Page