755  
FXUS63 KGRB 172351  
AFDGRB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
651 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
   
SHORT TERM
 
TONIGHT AND MONDAY  
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN  
CONCERNS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND  
EARLY MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL  
PROVIDE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING VERY  
HEAVY RAINS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT. WE ADDED SOME  
COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN  
SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS, AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT  
ARE NOT COLD FOR LARGE HAIL. A BRIEF TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT AND  
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW. THAT WILL  
HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY  
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
ZONAL PATTERN AT 500MB WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AT THE  
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY  
THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES  
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON  
SOME NIGHTS COULD FALL INTO THE 40S AT OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS  
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS WEEK.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY  
NIGHT. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE  
AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DOMINATE THE WEATHER  
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE  
IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN CHANCES. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE  
MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR OUR WARMER BIASED SITES.  
DID LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON A FEW NIGHTS LATER IN THE WEEK  
ACROSS THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
STRONG AND LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND  
TORRENTIAL RAIN WERE ONGOING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST  
WI EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH THE  
PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.  
THE COMBINATION OF STEADY RAINS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT  
WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/LOCAL IFR OVERNIGHT INTO  
EARLY MONDAY, BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY MONDAY.  
 
LLWS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING, THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST  
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  
 

 
   
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005-010>013-  
018-019-021-030-073.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM.....RDM  
LONG TERM......ECKBERG  
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH  
 
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