351
FXUS63 KGRB 040924
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
424 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE
MINOR PCPN CHCS...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE ELUSIVE ISOLD SHOWER THREAT (REAL
OR IMAGINED) AGAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
THAT PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS NEAR MDZ/AUW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SAGGED INTO CNTRL WI AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. ALTHOUGH RADAR
SHOWS THAT THE INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED...MODELS
HINT THAT ISOLD CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES OVER
500 J/KG NEAR OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
ADD A SMALL POP FOR SHRA/TSRA THERE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WITH NORTHERN WI
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. DEEP MIXING THROUGH 800-750 MB SUPPORTS
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP LKSHR READINGS COOLER.
IF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP OVER C/EC WI THIS
AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THE EVG FIREWORKS
SHOWS COMMENCE. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF NICELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
N WI...WHERE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THAT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.
ON SUNDAY...A S/W TROF WILL CLIP N WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH THE LFQ OF A 90 KNOT JET. HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL POPS FOR
FAR NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDE INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR BOTH PERIODS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...PROBABLY HIGHER
THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED. CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION
COULD PREVENT US FROM REACHING THE 90S. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST
AS IS SINCE MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION
THURSDAY. LOOKING AT THE 00Z GFS...VERY WARM AIR SHOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM +11C TO +13 C TO INHIBIT ANY
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS CAN FINE TUNE THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...AND HOW THE LATEST TRENDS WILL AFFECT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING +20 C 850MB AIR WILL WORK
INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE COULD MIX TO 850MB...
TEMPERATURES WOULD CLIMB ABOVE 90. LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDING...
LATEST RUNS WOULD SUGGEST WE WOULD MIX TO ABOUT 875 MB.
YESTERDAY...FRIDAY WAS LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
HAMPER HOW WARM WE WILL GET. PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW
SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER NC WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
SAG SOUTH AND GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. IF ENOUGH HEATING
OCCURS...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SFC TROF OVER
C/EC WI THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF PCPN IN THE 12Z TAFS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KIECKBUSCH/ECKBERG
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