067  
FXUS63 KGRB 192327  
AFDGRB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
527 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
   
SHORT TERM
 
TONIGHT AND MONDAY  
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPERATURES AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS  
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  
 
THE 19Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED  
FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER INTO THE  
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF ONTARIO. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS  
LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. VISIBLE  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVER  
NORTHEAST WI BETWEEN RETREATING LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND  
ADVANCING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE WELL-  
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.  
 
A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AND DRAW  
MILDER AIR INTO WI TONIGHT AS 8H TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND -6C  
TO AROUND 0C. THIS WAA, COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 110 KNOT  
UPPER JET, SHOULD BRING THESE MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO PARTS OF  
NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT. UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT LATER THIS EVENING,  
THEN EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATE. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 15-20 DEGREES NORTH-CENTRAL WI, 25-30  
DEGREES EAST-CENTRAL WI. AS A SIDE NOTE, IF SKIES OVER NORTHERN WI  
WERE TO CLEAR OUT, TEMPERATURES COULD END UP CLOSER TO 10 ABOVE  
DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER.  
 
SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO WI AS 8H TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND +6C  
BY 00Z TUESDAY. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY,  
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY  
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.  
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE SEE MAX  
TEMPERATURES REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES FAR NORTH, UPPER 40S OVER  
PARTS OF CENTRAL WI.  
   
LONG TERM
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY  
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS  
WEEK, WITH DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  
MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE SECOND COULD BRING SOME  
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS A CLIPPER PASSES  
BY TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES  
OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN WI WILL END EARLY IN  
THE TAF PERIOD, AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST  
TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE  
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE  
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING  
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED  
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE  
GALES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER AS WINDS TURN  
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  

 
   
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS  
LONG TERM......RDM  
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH  
MARINE.........KALLAS  
 
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