462
FXUS63 KGRB 090958
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
358 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAIN IDEA IS TO LET CURRENT HEADLINES/FORECAST ALONE. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD TO SNOW TOTALS...MAINLY WARNING AREA AS DRY AIR EAST
OF STATE HARD TO OVERCOME WITH MANITOWOC STILL AT 10SM AT 9Z. FETCH
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TOO EASTERLY AT THIS TIME TO BE MUCH OF A
CONTRIBUTION. THIS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AFTER 12Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST.
LONG PERIOD OF WAA LIFT AS SURFACE INVERTED TROF SHIFTS EAST OF
THE STATE...COMBINED WITH GOOD QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT
AS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL IL...WILL CONTINUE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE STATE
INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EAST OF STATE
WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SOME CONCERN
MAY NEED TO EXTEND ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT LOOK AT THAT AGAIN.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 850MB MOISTURE LIMITED AND 850MB TO LAKE TEMPERATURES
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WHICH BACK TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER INCH IS POSSIBLE
IN THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHWEST VILAS COUNTY WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WISCONSIN.
WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR EAST
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO WISCONSIN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AREA. GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL DID
NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT IN SNOW. LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS WITH CONDITIONS NEAR OR BELOW MINIMUMS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. STRONG...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED FOX
VALLEY TO LAKESHORE INTO TONIGHT.
MARINE
WILL UPGRADE SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FOR TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING PERIOD. LIKELY BE MARGINAL GALE AS SHEER IN LLVL WINDS TOO
GREAT...BUT SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IDEAL FOR FUNNELING THROUGH
DEATHS DOOR AND FOR GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE MI COAST.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ048>050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ020>022-031-038>040-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ035>037-045.
TE/ECKBERG
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