082
FXUS63 KMKX 162020
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
VERY SHORT TERM
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY...TIED TO DECENT AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
BEST COMBO OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUITE A BIT
AGAIN. WAS HESITANT TO GO QUITE AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT AS 925 MB TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 3C WARMER TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER. 925 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
TODAY...AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HOLD
TEMPS BACK A BIT FROM MILDEST POTENTIAL. WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE
LAKE AGAIN UNDER SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SHORT TERM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES...AND INFLUENCE OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH BEING FELT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
STRONGER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH INITIAL
850-700MB WAA PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT WITH LIFT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WITH DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT SOME MIXING AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25
TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK INVERSION WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
COOLING LOWER THAN THE LOW 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION ON GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
BRINGING 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 19C TO 20C IN THE WEST...AND 18C
TO 19C EAST. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE WEST...AND
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE EAST...WITH SOME COOLING NEAR THE LAKE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MODELS ALL DAMPEN THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SW UTAH/NRN ARIZONA
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. GFS BRINGING A MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...POSSIBLY MORE OF AN MCV...INTO SW WI FRIDAY
EVENING BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY SO ONLY A FEW PASSING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AT MOST.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING 850-700MB
FLOW IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE. BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT REMAINS WEST...FOCUSED OVER IOWA AND MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. GFS 2-METER DEW POINTS ARE 5 TO 10F HIGHER THAN OTHER
MODELS...AND WITH GULF MOISTURE HAVING TO WORK AROUND EASTERN
SURFACE HIGH NOSING WELL DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES...WILL LEAN
TOWARD DRIER MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID 80S WEST AS 925MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 22C...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE FAR
EAST...WITH COOLER UPPER 70S ALONG THE LAKE BEFORE DIPPING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LOW TO MEDIUM.
WENT WITH CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD TO MITIGATE MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND WITH DEVELOPING
/OVER-DEVELOPED?/SECONDARY WAVE DEPICTED ON ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT ON GEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS SOLUTION FOCUSES THE
HIGHER POPS ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE KEEPING A
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR
SOUTH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL CLOSED SYSTEM ON THE
ECMWF. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LOW 80S AGAIN SUNDAY...POSSIBLY WARMER IF
SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW CUMULUS AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM
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