454
FXUS63 KMKX 092055
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE
NORTH...HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY
HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEAK ISENTROPIC EVENT TO AFFECT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...DECREASING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
LAST WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. WEAK RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OMEGA ALSO HELPING TO WRINGE OUT ANY AVAILABLE
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE HIGH CLOUDS. NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR FEW-SCT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BRUSHING FAR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST TO THE SOUTH.
OTRW SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ACROSS WI WITH QUIET...BENIGN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH LAKESHORE TEMPERED A FEW DEGREES BY COOLER LAKE
SURFACE.
LONG TERM/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AT LEAST IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS
OF THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 FORECAST. BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
EXTENDED MODELS ON HANDLING WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH WESTERN GTLAKES AT END OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN TO WARRANT BUMPING UP POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY AS SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.
GFS ENSEMBLES IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DIVERGE ON SATURDAY AS HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO
PUSH ACROSS PLAINS. LATEST GFS HAS SHIFTED TO A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO
00Z ECMWF WHICH CARRIES OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NRN MS VALLEY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES...WL LEAVE IN SCHC POPS FOR LIQUID THROUGH END OF
WEEKEND. IF CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT CARRIES INTO FUTURE
GUIDANCE...WL BE INCREASING POPS FOR SUN INTO MON IN FUTURE ISSANCES.
AOA NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER THIS MORE POTENT SYSTEM.
AVIATION
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECTING THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE MID TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD TO EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CIRRUS OR CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
NE WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. NORTH OF MILWAUKEE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SHORT/LONG TERM...MBK
AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
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