268  
FXUS63 KMKX 211132  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
532 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS  
MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO SRN WI THIS MORNING. GUSTY NWLY  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS  
WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME STEADY IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION(12Z TAFS)
 
STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE  
AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BKN025-035 IS EXPECTED BY LATE  
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ENOUGH  
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO  
EAST ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WLY WINDS THIS  
MORNING WILL BECOME NWLY BY LATE MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE  
COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
(ISSUED 313 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017)  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.  
 
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO, CANADA, THEN  
NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC, CANADA. A 100-120 KT NLY JET WILL DRIVE THE  
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG  
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY  
THIS MORNING THEN FALL THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT BECOMING STEADY  
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH  
ARE EXPECTED. THE BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER  
MN SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SEWD VIA THE UPPER TROUGH BEING DRIVEN SWD  
BY THE UPPER JET. THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE  
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT A FEW FLURRIES COULD  
OCCUR. FOR TNT, THE CORE OF THE POLAR HIGH WILL TRACK SWD THROUGH  
THE GREAT PLAINS BUT ITS SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND NWD INTO THE UPPER  
MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED. THUS EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER  
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT NOT DECOUPLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO  
LOWER 20S EXPECTED.  
 
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM  
SOME MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH EXPECTED WITH WINDS  
SWINGING AROUND TO MORE OF A WEST OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THE  
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STARTS OFF THE DAY ACROSS IA/MN AND THEN LEANS  
MORE INTO THE OH VALLEY BY DAYS END. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR  
THE RETURN FLOW. NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE WET NAM SOLUTION FOR  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THIS WAA REGIME.  
 
THANKSGIVING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM  
A WEAK SURFACE/850 TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THEN THE FLOW RELOADS  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS NEXT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE A STEADY PERIOD OF MODIFYING 925 TEMPS RIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM  
THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE MANY  
TEMPS REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT. COULD GO EVEN HIGHER WITH AMPLE SUN, HOWEVER CLOUD  
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING THROUGH.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM  
LOOKING AT A COLDER BUT DRY WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN  
THE CHILLY AIRMASS. WINDIEST DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SATURDAY. AS  
SUNDAY WEARS ALONG THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGD TO SHIFT  
RIGHT ACROSS THE STATE SO THAT WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH LIGHTER WIND  
REGIME.  
 
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM  
THE HIGH WILL END UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY  
FLOW SETTING UP YET ANOTHER LOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE PLAINS. SO WE  
SHOULD SEE SOME MODIFICATION TO THE WEEKEND CHILL THOUGH THE SOUTH  
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND THE WARMEST 925 TEMPS HOLD OFF TO THE WEST  
AND SOUTHWEST OF WI.  
 
AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE  
AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BKN025-035 IS EXPECTED BY LATE  
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ENOUGH  
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO  
EAST ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WLY WINDS THIS  
MORNING WILL BECOME NWLY BY LATE MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE  
COLD FRONT.  
 
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TNT  
FOR BRISK WLY WINDS BECOMING NWLY BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP  
MAINTAIN WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED  
OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GEHRING  
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  
 
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