230  
FXUS63 KMKX 221021  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
521 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION(12Z TAFS)
 
 
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS UNDER 10KTS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
(ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2018)  
 
SHORT TERM...  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  
A LARGE CLOSED LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE  
FAR SOUTH TODAY, WITH MORE SUN TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, QUIET  
WEATHER RULES. DUE TO A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE  
COOLER EAST, WARMER WEST. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST  
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.  
 
THE MAIN 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY,  
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE AREA KEEPING  
THINGS DRY. SOME CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
60S ARE EXPECTED INLAND, WITH 50S LAKESIDE WITH ONSHORE WINDS.  
 
THE 500 MB LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY, STAYING WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS IS THE ONLY  
MODEL TO BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE PERIPHERY  
OF THE 500 MB LOW CIRCULATION. KEPT A VERY LOW POP IN THE FAR  
SOUTHEAST FOR NOW, THOUGH IS MAY NEED REMOVAL IF THE GFS REMAINS  
AN OUTLIER.  
 
MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
AREA TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TUESDAY  
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE  
AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GFS  
CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN DURING THIS TIME  
THAN THE NAM. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL WITH QPF IN THE AREA AS  
WELL. FOR NOW, HAVE LOW END POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED  
TUESDAY, WITH MAINLY MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND 50S LAKESIDE.  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.  
 
A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF  
THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME.  
 
MODELS THEN ARE INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEY ALSO BRING A  
FAIRLY ROBUST AND DEEP 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH  
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THURSDAY INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONTINUED  
BLENDED MODEL POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
 
QUIET WEATHER THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 
AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...  
 
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS UNDER 10KTS.  
 
MARINE...  
 
QUIET LAKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY.  
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY, THAT MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DAVIS  
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS  
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD  
 
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