769
FXUS63 KMKX 240257 AAB
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
957 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FROM WEST OF MADISON TO NORTH/NORTHEAST OF MADISON, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. SMALL HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, BUT COOLER BY LAKE
MICHIGAN.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AFTER.
- DRIER THIS WEEKEND, BUT ANOTHER PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO AREAS
WEST OF MADISON, AIDED BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND SOME
850 MB CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE.
CAMS THAT ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY DECENTLY TRY TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
MADISON TO PERHAPS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF MADISON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT, AS ELEVATED CAPE WEAKENS AND THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FIELDS WEAKEN AS WELL. STILL COULD SEE HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
WEST OF MADISON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OTHERWISE, SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING HIGHER
DEW POINTS MAY ALLOW FOR THE FOG. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT THIS DEVELOPMENT.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
A PERIOD OF DESCENDING MOTION FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS
MORNING'S WEAK MCV HAS LEFT A WINDOW FOR SUNSHINE TO GRADUALLY
STEEPEN THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH ARE CURRENTLY POOR, AS
EVIDENCED BY THE GENERAL LACK OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS). A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A WEAK STORM MAY FORM IN FAR SOUTHERN
WI (NEAR THE IL BORDER) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE POOR THERMODYNAMICS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION. INSTEAD, THE MAIN AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE
CUMULUS FIELD EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IN NORTHEAST IOWA, ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THAT OCCURS IN THAT REGION IS LIKELY TO
DRIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, IMPACTING
OUR REGION AFTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED IN THE
SUNSHINE. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING CURRENTLY FEATURES 15-35% CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(HIGHEST FURTHER WEST), THOUGH THIS COULD BE INCREASED IF
FAVORABLE TIMING / UPWIND-PLACEMENT OF INITIATION IN IOWA /
SOUTHWESTERN WI OCCURS.
IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT, WE'D BE WORKING WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 40-50KT EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR (MOSTLY ALOFT,
SHALLOW SHEAR AND HELICITY ARE RELATIVELY WEAK), WITH STEEP LOW
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME CELLULAR OR
LINE-SEGMENT STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, WITH
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
HELICITY ALOFT FOR A FEW STORMS TO ROTATE (THUS CONTRIBUTING TO
HAIL AND WIND BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS), BUT LOW-LEVEL HELICITY
INTEGRALS ARE NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE. THAT, COUPLED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NBL LATER THIS EVENING WILL LIMIT TORNADIC
POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY MID-THURSDAY / THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL HOLD
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS TO THE 50S, BUT ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S FURTHER WEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE 12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM
SRN IA TO SE LOWER MI DURING THE DAY ON FRI. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI DURING THIS
TIME. NLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS WI FOR SAT-
SAT NT WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IS
FORECAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FOR SUNDAY WITH LGT SLY
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE NEARS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MI.
BREEZY SLY WINDS AND WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WILL THEN INCREASE
SUN NT- MON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES
INTO THE NRN GREAT PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY NRN MN. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A WARM,
HUMID AIRMASS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR MON NT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS
ON TUE, WITH LESS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN ARRIVE FOR WED.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO AREAS
WEST OF MADISON. THEY MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OF MADISON OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THERE COULD BE SMALL
HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WEST OF MADISON.
OTHERWISE, SOME LIGHT FOG WITH 2 TO 5 MILE VISIBILITY MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE. BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT THIS DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CEILINGS AROUND
500 FEET AGL THAT REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE LAKESHORE TERMINALS,
ALONG WITH 1 TO 2 MILE FOG, DURING THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY DAWN THURSDAY MORNING AND
BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MIDDLE MORNING, LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY LINGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
GALES APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME OVER THE OPEN WATERS, BUT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH WINDS TAPERING
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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