618  
FXUS63 KMPX 262225  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
525 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO LINGER IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS  
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE PRECIPITATION HAS SLOWLY TAPERED OFF  
ACROSS THE REGION AND JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN PERSISTING  
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE ONCE AGAIN, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN  
THE MID 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY ARE  
LOOKING A BIT DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY, SO SHOULD PARTLY TO MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL  
LINGER ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS  
REFLECT THE SUNSHINE, SO INCREASED THEM ACROSS WESTERN MN AND  
COOLED THEM OFF SLIGHTLY IN WESTERN WI IN COMPARISON TO THE  
BLENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
 
THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY BE TRENDING MILDER THROUGH NEXT  
WEEKEND, BUT THE SPLIT FLOW AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS WILL STILL BE  
TRAVERSING AREAS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW IN  
PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS, A RETURN OF  
THE SUN AND SOMEWHAT WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW US TO CLIMB  
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TUESDAY. COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH  
IN AND WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE  
APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN  
SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTH TOWARD THE  
GFS AND THE GEFS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM, BUT STILL DOES BRING  
SOME RAIN INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  
NAM/GFS ARE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, SO EXPECTING A LIKELY DRY WEEK  
AHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS WERE REDUCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN CWA FOR LATE WEEK.  
 
YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES FOR LATE WEEK AND EJECT ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT  
WEEKEND. LIKE THE SYSTEM PRECEDING IT, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING  
IT FURTHER NORTH AS A WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE WHEREAS THE GFS IS  
FLATTER, FURTHER SOUTH, AND CUTOFF. A STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW AND  
COOLER TEMPERATURES RESULT ON THE EC, WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS VERY  
LITTLE INFLUENCE THIS FAR NORTH, DEPICTS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT,  
SUNSHINE, AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES  
CLIMB INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GEFS PLUMES  
ALSO SHOW THE WARMING TREND NICELY INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF  
APRIL. AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE, PLAYED IT DOWN THE MIDDLE BUT  
THE GFS HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR TWO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
 
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH DEGRADATION  
TO IFR AT EASTERN SITES (KMSP-KRNH-KEAU) TONIGHT AS WELL. WENT A  
TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SCATTERING/IMPROVEMENT TRENDS ON MONDAY,  
THINKING WE WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT MN SITES BETWEEN 15Z  
AND 18Z, AND WI SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT  
IN THE 3SM-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AS AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP.  
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES, KRNH AND KEAU MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN  
THE VICINITY THIS EVE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH  
THE PERIOD.  
 
KMSP...  
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH REGARDING LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH  
MONDAY MORNING, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WE COULD  
SEE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE IMPROVING TRENDS ARE  
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR NOW LOOKING A BIT MORE  
PROBABLE FOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
 
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5 KTS.  
WED...VFR. CHC -RA LATE. WIND ESE AT 7-10KTS.  
THU...VFR. CHC -RA. WIND E AT 7-10KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JRB  
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF  
AVIATION...LS  
 
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