757  
FXUS63 KMPX 241941  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
241 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2018  
 
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE  
20S. AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR,  
OR BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND  
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOMORROW AS FULL SUNSHINE IS  
EXPECTED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2018  
 
TWO FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST  
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS AND  
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT GUSTY WINDS  
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAYS EVENING WILL MAKE IT FEEL  
MUCH COOLER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE  
OVERHEAD, AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THESE FRONTS  
WILL MAINLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TO MUCH ABOVE THE NORMAL  
HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BY  
SATURDAY MORNING SO KEEP IN MIND IF YOU START PLACING PLANTS  
OUTSIDE.  
 
BEFORE DISCUSSING SPECIFICS NEXT WEEK, THE GFS/EC MEAN UPPER  
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE ON AN ACTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  
THUS, THE NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK. IN  
ADDITION, THE EC/GFS HAVE BOTH BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH A  
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS NEXT WEEK.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID SECTION  
OF THE NATION. THUS, MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DEEPER MOISTURE  
FROM THE GULF.  
 
NOW THE SPECIFICS,  
 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND, AND  
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE TWO FRONTS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL HOLD OFF  
ANY GULF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND, OR NEXT WEEK AS  
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. BEFORE ANY MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE  
REGION, SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY IF THE NEXT FRONT  
HOLDS OFF TO THE WEST. THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST MID TO UPPER 70S OR  
EVEN AN 80 DEGREE DAY.  
 
DEPENDING UPON WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS, FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS  
ARE LOW. IN ADDITION, ONCE MOISTURE DOES RETURN, THE POSSIBILITY  
OF THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY. THERE IS AN EXPERIMENTAL CIPS  
ANALOG WHICH HAS A SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY GUIDANCE. BASED ON  
THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE, AND THE ADDED STRONGER WIND ENERGY,  
THIS ANALOG SUGGESTS A 15-30% CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS NEXT  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2018  
 
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS IN FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, OUTSIDE MPX  
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE  
NORTHWEST TO WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
KMSP...  
 
NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
 
WED NIGHT...VFR. WIND SW 5 TO 10 KT.  
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC OF -RA. WIND SW BCMG NW 10 TO 20 KTS.  
FRI...VFR. WIND W BCMG NW 5 TO 15 KT.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JLT  
LONG TERM...JLT  
AVIATION...JLT  
 
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