015
FXUS63 KMPX 110842
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
DISCUSSION
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST CWA...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. RATHER POTENT FRONT ACROSS
FAR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST INDICATED
THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY. FEW
-SHRA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND
SATELLITE SHOWING SOME HIGH CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MN ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS MAY YET GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS INTO MAINLY NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FOR THIS. OVERNIGHT...MODELS MOVE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
NORTHEAST OVER MAINLY NORTHWEST CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THIS MOVES
THROUGH...RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO ITS PASSAGE
AND DEEPENING TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SFC BNDRY REDEVELOPS
BACK WEST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW IN
SOME WARMER AIR TO MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...KEEPING LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
MODELS THEN TREND JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE SFC CDFNT MOVES
INTO WESTERN MN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS TO GENERATE LIKELY POPS AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IT DOES APPEAR MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES A BIT HIGH INITIALLY. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HOWEVER. MODELS INDICATE SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST AS NORBERT REMNANTS MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
REGION LATER SUNDAY. SFC CDNFT THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS AS THIS MOVES EAST.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSCOAITED WITH THE FNT MOVING THROUGH...WITH
LOW-MID K INDEX VALUES AND H85 LI SLIGTLY NEGATIVE. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME WIDELY SCT TSRA ALONG FNT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT...AND SHOULD DRY OUT
WESTERN POTION OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS IS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END POPS IN CASE THIS FEATURE SLOWS
FURTHER. 21Z SREF AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES WERE HOLDING ONTO SOME
POPS INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION
/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT VCNTY
KAXN WHERE MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP...DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA. REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT COULD CAUSE A FEW
SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. OTHERWISE OCNL BKN CIGS 050-060
COULD DEVELOP IN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE MN
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS VCNTY
KAXN...KSTC SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CHANCE THUNDER BUT TOO ISOLATED
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT. MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KAXN AND KSTC AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DWE/TRH
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