092
FXUS63 KMPX 090438
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1038 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
AVIATION
/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24/30 HRS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES EAST...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS (AOA 25000') BRUSH THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NW/N OVERNIGHT...AND
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 8 KTS...THEN BECOME MORE W/NW BY 16/17Z
MONDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS FOR RNH/EAU. ..JLT..
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TRENDS THIS
EVENING. EARLIER..THE NAM WAS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION DEVELOPING
ON THE 295 SURFACE WHERE THE 40-50K STUFF WAS FORMING AND THEN
EXPANDING TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THE RUC IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT THE BAND OF CLOUDS IS REMAINING IN PLACE
WITHE A BIT LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. WILL LET THE
CLOUDS FILL IN THIS EVENING AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA EAST
CENTRAL MN INTO WI. THE RUC IS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 400 J/KG
MU CAPE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. DECENT
DRYING AND SINKING DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WITH GOOD CLEARING
ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MON-WED AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. DEW POINT TEMPS MAY BE LOWER
THAN GUID AND TEMPS MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN GUID. TIMING ON THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN A LITTLE IN QUESTION BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO INCH UP TO A LITTLE MORE THAN NORMAL STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK OFF A LITTLE ON THE FRONTAL
BAND MOVING IN BY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC THEN DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE MORE OF AN UPPER WAVE. MODELS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SE COAST WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS COULD A AFFECT THE SPEED OF THINGS IN THE
PLAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ANY SLOWING WILL MEAN CHANCES ACROSS MORE OF THE
CWA. TEMPS STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE TIME
SERIES SHOWS A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD NORMAL. THE 500 MB MEAN CHARTS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CIRCUMPOLAR VORTEX DEVELOPING WEST OF AK FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WHICH WOULD STILL MEAN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR US.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
JPR/JLT
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