284  
FXUS63 KMPX 280900  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
400 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
 
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS  
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALONG A  
TIGHT 850 MB MOISTURE GRADIENT. ONE NEARLY STATIONARY BAND  
STRETCHING FROM LONG PRAIRIE AND ALEXANDRIA SOUTHWARD TO REDWOOD  
FALLS AND NEW ULM IS EVIDENCE THE LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO AT LEAST  
THE MEAN WIND. SOME BUILDING OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED  
WITH THE JET VEERING AROUND SUNRISE, BEFORE THE BEST MOISTURE  
CONVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND SUPPORT FOR THE RAIN  
AND THUNDER DIMINISHES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.  
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING ACROSS EASTERN  
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH CIGS GREATER THAN 12KFT PER OBSERVING STATIONS.  
THIS IS A GOOD SIGN WE'RE GOING TO CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING WITH  
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. INCREASED HIGH  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DEW POINTS WILL  
ALSO BE CLIMBING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE UPPER 60S, BENEATH A  
POCKET OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS STEEP AS 7.5-8.0 C/KM. THIS WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO 2500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN  
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHILE A MID LEVEL VORT PASSES OVERHEAD.  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS AREA,  
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, WIND SHEAR  
IS A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MID  
LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A  
FEW COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONGLY  
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, HOWEVER.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
 
COOL YET UNSTABLE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THEN A  
PATTERN TRANSITION OCCURS AT THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST  
PERIOD WHICH BRINGS A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID AIR LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE DAYTIME PERIOD ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BRIEF RIDGING  
SETS IN OVER THE AREA. THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS SHORT-LIVED,  
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING AND  
AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE  
AREA ON SATURDAY, AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF I-35.  
 
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY TOP OUT IN THE 70S.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRING MID LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS  
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING  
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT  
AROUND NORMAL IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON TSRA DEVELOPING/EVOLVING ACROSS  
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT, AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD  
SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE  
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL  
ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF MPX FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT  
6 TO 9 HRS. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN  
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, KEPT IT SIMPLE WITH TSRA SLOWLY  
ABATING AFTER 12Z, BUT LIKELY REFORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING  
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TAFS WILL LIKELY  
BE ALTERED BASED ON OVERALL TRENDS OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS.  
 
KMSP...  
 
AS STATED BEFORE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON TSRA DEVELOPING IN  
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE AIRPORT. TIMING REMAINS CLOSE TO  
THE 9-13Z PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST AND LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS. AFTER 13Z,  
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP WITH VCTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A  
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
 
FRI...VFR. CHANCE MVFR WITH TSRA. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.  
SAT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR WITH TSRA. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.  
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF TSRA/SHRA. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF  
LONG TERM...LS  
AVIATION...JLT  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MN Page
The Nexlab WI Page Main Text Page