411  
FNUS71 KRNK 091529  
FWSRNK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACKING OUT HANDLINE RX...NC STATE PARKS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
1029 AM EST FRI FEB 9 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON FEBRUARY 09.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY LEAVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SECOND  
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY  
WITH THE BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY.  
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE WEEKEND.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................21, INCREASING TO 32 IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN  
DECREASING TO 21 LATE.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........3 3 4 4 4 5 5  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............37 41 47 51 53 54 53  
RH..............57 53 49 46 44 44 45  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 6 6 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 10 10 11 11 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.9  
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW S S S S S S  
MIXNG WIND SPD..9 9 10 12 12 12 9  
LVORI...........2 2 2 1 1 1 2  
ADI.............18 24 29 33 35 34 21  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT), THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 1 TO 6 MPH.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................2.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........5 6 36 78 92 89  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 10 30  
TEMP............49 46 43 44 43 42  
RH..............50 58 68 71 76 81  
20 FT WIND......S 4 S 2 S 2 SW 1 N 1 N 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 4 2 2  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 300 300 300 300 400  
MIXING WIND......S 6 S 2 S 2 SW 1 W 1 NW 2  
LVORI...........2 3 4 4 4 6  
ADI.............3 1 1 1 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.  
MIN HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST AROUND 2 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 2 TO  
9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,  
THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 12 MPH LATE.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................5, INCREASING TO 16 LATE.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........100 97 98 98 98 97  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............30 60 70 70 70 70  
TEMP............41 42 46 49 51 53  
RH..............87 88 83 84 83 80  
20 FT WIND......NW 1 NW 1 W 2 SW 2 S 3 S 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.2 2 4 4  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 500 800 800 1000 1300  
MIXING WIND......NW 2 W 2 S 2 SW 2 SW 6 SW 12  
LVORI...........6 6 5 5 4 3  
ADI.............3 2 2 2 7 18  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...RUCKMAN  
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1801742.0/RNK  
 
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