592
FXUS61 KLWX 241813
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
213 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURN OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SURFACE HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAS LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF THE CUMULUS HAVE BEEN LIMITED.
CONVECTION HAD FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AND BEARS WATCHING.
HOWEVER...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
SO WILL LEAVE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DRY ATTM. CUMULUS OVER OUR CWA
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SOME SUBURBS MAY EXPERIENCE LOWS BELOW 60
DEG F.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY...PROVIDING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH ONLY A SCANT FEW CUMULUS.
DRY AIR WILL WARM QUICKLY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EASILY RISING
INTO THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE.
INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WHEN IT COMES TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS ENERGY REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING HAPPENING OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT..BUT MORE
OPTIMISTIC THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A DRY PERIOD SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.
GFS BRINGS A COUPLE WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH STUCK OVER THE EASTERN US. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DRY AIR WILL SQUELCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
W/NW WINDS UP TO 15 KT THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...PELOQUIN/SAR
MARINE...PELOQUIN/SAR
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