850  
FXUS61 KPBZ 241756  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
156 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF  
THE NEW WEEK UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN COMMAND. ALOFT, THE FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE  
AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE  
CWA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ARE  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA  
TICK BACK AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST AND FILLS EVERY SO  
SLIGHTLY. THIS PLUS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY  
SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.  
 
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN A EASTWARD MOTION ON TUESDAY, AS A MIDLEVEL  
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND FINALLY GIVES THE PATTERN A  
LITTLE PUSH. ALTHOUGH THE CIRRUS WILL MOVE OFF, INCREASING LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS, ALONG  
WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES, LEADS TO A FURTHER  
DROP IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE  
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE EXTENDED  
FORECAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO CROSS WEDNESDAY OR  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE EJECTING ACROSS  
THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK FORCING AND THE VERY DRY  
AIRMASS IN PLACE LEAD ME TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE  
PASSAGE AT THIS TIME.  
 
UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL PATTERN  
INITIALLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN A TROUGH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL  
LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBILITIES ALSO ARRIVE WITH THE PATTERN,  
BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO DENT THE CONTINUING OVERALL DRY SPELL.  
TEMPERATURES MAY RECOVER SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO EXIT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WED NIGHT COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:  
 
PIT: 90 (1881)  
ZZV: 95 (1908)  
MGW: 92 (1930, 1908)  
DUJ: 85 (1970)  
HLG: 91 (1934)  
PHD: 91 (1970)  
 
DUJ HAS ALREADY SURPASSED ITS RECORD HIGH. PHD, AND POSSIBLY  
PIT, ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE MET OR BROKEN.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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