788  
FXUS61 KPBZ 262316  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
716 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS  
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO IS PROGGED TO TRACK TO SOUTHERN  
ONTARIO BY MORNING. INCREASING SHORTWAVE SUPPORT THROUGH THE  
EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS CROSSING THE  
REGION. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR  
AREA, THOUGH WITH ELEVATED SHEAR LEVELS GUSTY WINDS ARE  
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM THAT BECOMES ORGANIZED THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING. THE LOW'S ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A  
LIGHT NIGHT PASSAGE, WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES THEREAFTER.  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD RETURN DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA BY LATE  
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES  
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
BY MONDAY EVENING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS IS FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE  
BRINGS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  
WHILE THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MILD, VALUES  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN  
THE PREVIOUS DAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO  
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO, SHOWING SHOWERS  
MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY  
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER COULD REMAIN INTO SATURDAY  
BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW  
SPREADING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM  
TO HIGH WITH GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL GO  
IN A HEAVIER SHOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF IFR. HOWEVER  
FOR THE SAKE OF THE TAF, DID NOT INCLUDE THAT SINCE IT WOULD  
LAST LESS THAN 30 MINUTES. THE INITIAL ROUND WILL MOVE THROUGH  
BY 2Z THEN ANOTHER WILL TRAVERSE BETWEEN 3Z- 10Z. CIGS WILL DROP  
TO MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WILL CLIMB BACK TO LOW  
END VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY HOWEVER  
POCKETS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS,  
BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION.  
 
GUSTY SE WINDS AT FKL AND DUJ WILL SLACKEN TOWARD 4Z WHEN THE  
FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL  
BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH A CROSSING  
COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...98  
 
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