755  
FXUS61 KPBZ 010550  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
150 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
UPDATES OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS,  
AS GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED AND LOWS ARE LIKELY TO STAY WARMER THAN  
ORIGINALLY FORECAST WITH CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD IN  
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  
 
LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES TODAY, DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG  
LOW AND MID LEVEL JETS WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF SPEED SHEAR  
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION AS THE TIMING OF  
PRECIPITATION IS RATHER EARLY, AT LEAST FOR AREAS WEST OF I-79.  
STILL, STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST CONVECTIVE  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70'S/LOW 80'S, MAY ALLOW FOR MIXING  
OF SOME OF THE STRONGER WIND ALOFT, WHICH MAY BE EXACERBATED BY  
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BEST WARMING WILL TAKE  
PLACE...EAST OF THE I-79 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE, THINK THAT SPCS  
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL REMAINS VALID AS OF THIS MORNING. WILL  
CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINING  
DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THROUGH ZANESVILLE OH BY  
10AM, PITTSBURGH AROUND 2PM, AND EAST OF THE LAURELS BY 5PM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY EVENING, WITH SHOWERS  
DIMINISHING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DIVE IN BEHIND THE  
EXITING SYSTEM, BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS. THE CLOSED CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES  
MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH  
DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD  
MOISTURE NORTH TOWARD THE REGION BY LATER WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS  
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AS A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH  
OR CLOSED LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL  
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WHAT REMAINS  
OF EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TO DIE OFF BETWEEN ZZV AND  
HLG. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY START TO INCREASE TOWARD MORNING  
CONCURRENT WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND OFF THE DECK, PRECLUDING THE  
INCLUSION OF LLWS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. A COLD FRONT  
WILL BEAR DOWN ON THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND RACE ACROSS  
THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT.  
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN TS, HOWEVER IT'S A BIT  
TO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING FOR THOSE. MID-CLOUDS AND  
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
FRIES  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THU/FRI LOW PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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