825
FXUS61 KPBZ 051256
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
856 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM
OVER EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES WHERE MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF HANNA WILL MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TOWARD NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BAND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. BY
TONIGHT FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE FROM HANNA WILL SPREAD AREA OF
RAIN TOWARD SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MODELS
INDICATE FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE AND HANNA REMNANTS WILL NOT REALLY
LINK UP AS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDGES IN BETWEEN THE FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A DRY POCKET
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLY BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND
FRONT TO WEST ACROSS OHIO.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE FROM HANNA QUICKLY HEADS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS REGION AND
REMAINING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGAIN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR TO JUST BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS CONTINUE WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OUR AREA. SFC WINDS TODAY SOUTH AT 8-14 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDS RETURN TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT NEXT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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