338  
FXUS61 KRLX 182015  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
415 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD  
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER  
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH  
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED  
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS  
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING  
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.  
 
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.  
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN  
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR  
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  
 
OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN  
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED  
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER  
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  
 
LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS  
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY. ANY WEAK FLOW  
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.  
 
STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S  
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH  
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING  
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND  
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY  
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.  
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM  
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST  
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS  
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE  
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE  
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON  
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA  
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND SCT TO BKN MID TO  
HIGH CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP  
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR  
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...  
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL  
NEAR TERM...SL  
SHORT TERM...KTB  
LONG TERM...50  
AVIATION...SL  
 
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