899  
FXUS61 KRLX 211035  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND  
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE  
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING  
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE  
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE  
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE  
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND  
TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE  
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL  
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE  
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE  
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.  
 
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF  
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER  
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND  
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE  
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.  
 
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF  
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY  
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE  
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR  
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD  
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE  
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE  
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT  
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.  
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.  
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING  
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A  
DRY FORECAST.  
 
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT  
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.  
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL  
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH  
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.  
 
W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER  
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD  
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE  
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22  
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18  
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L H H H M H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H L M H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H L H M M M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M H H H M M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H L L L H H H  
 
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...  
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ  
NEAR TERM...FB  
SHORT TERM...ARJ  
LONG TERM...SL  
AVIATION...FB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page