539  
FXUS61 KRLX 082141  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
441 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF  
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW  
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS  
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH  
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE  
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS  
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE  
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT  
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY  
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE  
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE  
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT  
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO  
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS  
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER  
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY  
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1  
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL  
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES  
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.1015 AM UPDATE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND  
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.  
 
ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE  
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL  
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY  
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.  
 
NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME  
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED  
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT  
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE  
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK  
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN  
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE  
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.  
 
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS  
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE  
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE  
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.  
 
STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE  
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING  
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING  
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE  
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST  
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A  
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL  
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED  
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES  
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK  
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON  
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH  
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST  
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN  
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.  
 
EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT  
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS  
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST  
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE  
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.  
 
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH  
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...  
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...YES...FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT NEAR A KILN-KHTS-  
KBLF LINE AROUND 01Z...A K3I2-KCRW-KBKW AROUND 04Z...AND INTO THE  
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 07Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THRU  
00Z...VARIABLE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN AND  
SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH  
IFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS. BEHIND  
THE FRONT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS  
IN SNOW SHOWERS.  
 
AFTER 13Z...GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS AND LOWER VSBY CONTINUE IN  
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OVER SOUTHWEST  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 18Z.  
 
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 KTS...BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 20  
KTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW SHOWERS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08  
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03  
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M L L L L L L  
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L L L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L L L L L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L L L L L  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L L L  
 
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...  
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-  
047.  
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.  
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.  
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ  
NEAR TERM...JMV/26  
SHORT TERM...TRM  
LONG TERM...MZ  
AVIATION...JMV  
 
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