611  
FXUS61 KRLX 302334  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
734 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WET WEATHER THROUGH  
TONIGHT. DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THIS WEEKEND, LOWERING CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 735 PM FRIDAY...  
 
TIGHTENED UP THE POPS ALONG THE NARROW AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE  
RUNNING SOUTH TO NORTH FROM FAYETTE TO WASHINGTON COUNTIES.  
 
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...  
 
A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ROTATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY THROUGH  
THE EVENING. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING LONG RAIN BANDS FAR AWAY FROM  
ITS CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THESE BANDS, SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER  
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFT NORTHEAST  
LOOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA. LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN IS  
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 50S  
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOWER 70S  
LOWLANDS, TO LOW 60S HIGHEST PEAKS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...  
 
THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PULL NORTH OUT OF HOUR HAIR  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE CHANCES FOR SHRA STILL EXIST ACROSS  
SE OH AND N WV, MOST PLACES WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER, CLOUDS  
WILL STILL LINGER. UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ON MONDAY AS THE  
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AS A DRYING PATTERN TAKES HOLD.  
STILL EXPECT SOME HEFTY AFTERNOON CU THOUGH.  
 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...  
 
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD WITH  
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK ABOVE NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR  
DAYTIME HIGHS. A TROF APPROACHES LATE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE AND A BAND OF SHRA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 735 PM FRIDAY...  
 
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MEANS MORE VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
EVENING, BUT STILL GIVES FORECAST ISSUES BASED ON THE VARIABILITY  
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR AND WORSE FOG IS IN THE  
FORECAST, BUT CANNOT PRODUCE TAFS WITH FOG FOR THE ENTIRE  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE  
IFR RANGE. SO, HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IN THE  
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF, BUT HOW THOSE WILL MANIFEST THEMSELVES  
IS THE KICKER. TAF REFLECTS THE BEST DETERMINISTIC FORECAST, BUT  
THIS COULD BE ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
AND RESULTANT MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.  
AMENDMENTS LIKELY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09  
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M M L L M L  
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L H H L L L L L M M  
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M H H H L L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L M M L L  
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H M M H H H M M L L  
CKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H H M H H L L L  
 
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...  
AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  
SATURDAY, AND IN DENSE FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30  
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26  
SHORT TERM...30  
LONG TERM...30  
AVIATION...26  
 
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