163  
FXUS61 KRLX 241606  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
1206 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH RAIN LINGERING THROUGH  
MIDWEEK. SOUTHERN SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. HIGH SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...TWEAKED POP BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND  
MESO MODEL TRENDS...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT  
RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING ACROSS SE OHIO, BUT AMOUNTS OF AROUND  
AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY MORE SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY WATER ISSUES.  
 
AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE KEPT THEM  
FROM WARMING TOO MUCH SO FAR THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT, THE  
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...  
 
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY FOR BASICALLY ACE PROBS. I  
ALSO BEEFED UP QPF PER LATEST MODEL RUNS.  
 
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...  
 
I'VE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS WINDS HAVE  
BEEN BELOW CRITERIA. HAVING SAID THAT, I STILL EXPECT SOME  
DECENT GUSTS INTO MID MORNING GIVEN THE STOUT LLJ IN PLACE. I  
ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE AREAS THAT WERE  
PREVIOUSLY IN THE ADVISORY.  
 
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT TOWARD  
THE AREA TODAY, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. BANDS OF  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE AS A RESULT. I INCLUDED  
SOME THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH  
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER. HIGHS WERE NUDGED TOWARD A COOLER  
CONSENSUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO, WITH THE MILDEST READINGS  
LIKELY IN OUR BANANA BELT REGION ALONG THE WESTWARD FACING  
SLOPES, COURTESY OF STRONG SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING FLOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...  
 
SHOWERS WILL TAPPER OFF BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW  
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  
 
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXISTS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN OTHER  
MODELS AND WOULD REQUIRE MUCH HIGHER POPS. WITH OTHER MODELS IN  
RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT, WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW, BUT  
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...  
 
MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT OR TWO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL PATTERN, THERE ARE  
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO  
THE FRONTS.  
 
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE DRY  
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...  
 
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA TODAY, PASSING  
SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW BANDS  
OF SHOWERS TO PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS  
SHOULD HOLD FOR THE MOST PART TODAY OUTSIDE OF BKW, THOUGH SOME  
TEMPO MVFR VSBY WAS CODED UP 12 TO 15Z IN SHOWERS. CIGS WILL  
GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
OHIO, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AS THE UPPER  
LOW CLOSES IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR BASES OVERSPREADING THE  
LOWLAND TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND IFR OVERNIGHT, THOUGH  
CKB/EKN LIKELY STIFF ARMING THIS UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. BKW  
WILL SEE THEIR CIGS LOWER INTO LOW END MVFR OR HIGH END IFR  
TODAY, LOWERING EVEN MORE SO THIS EVENING.  
 
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK WILL PERSIST TODAY,  
RESULTING IN 20 TO 25 KT SURFACE WINDS AT EKN/BKW WITH GUSTS TO  
35 KTS AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS,  
THANKS IN PART TO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY  
VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST TOMORROW.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02  
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H L  
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H M M M M H M M L  
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H L H H H H L  
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...  
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE  
RAIN.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30  
NEAR TERM...MPK/30  
SHORT TERM...RPY  
LONG TERM...RPY  
AVIATION...30  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page