629  
FXUS61 KRLX 241849  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
149 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CLOUDS LINGER UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WARM WEDNESDAY BEFORE  
TURNING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER MID AND LATE WEEK WITH PASSAGE OF  
A COLD FRONT AND LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...  
 
LINGERING DRIZZLE AND SPRITZES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. DO NOT  
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION THOUGH. SHOWER ACTIVITY  
SHOULD SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND WAA OCCURS. WEDNESDAY  
SHOULD BE A WARM WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...  
 
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY,  
WITH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FALLING, BEFORE BECOMING RATHER  
STEADY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE  
LIGHT RAIN, ALTHOUGH MOUNTAINS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW BY  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE BY THURSDAY  
NIGHT FOR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS LOWLANDS. LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS  
THE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...  
 
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE  
WEEKEND, AS MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE  
AREA. A MORE SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,  
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...  
 
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE UNDER WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE. STILL GETTING PATCHY SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT EXPECT THIS  
TO DECREASE TONIGHT. IFR EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE  
A RETURN TO VFR.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATUS BREAKS UP EARLY THAN FORECAST, BUT  
NOT LIKELY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00  
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H H H H M L  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L  
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L M M H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H L M M M H L H M M H M  
 
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...  
INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/26  
NEAR TERM...JW/26  
SHORT TERM...SL  
LONG TERM...SL  
AVIATION...JW/26  
 
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