851  
FXUS61 KRLX 251901 CCA  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
248 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE  
SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT  
WAVES...AS SEEN ON H500 VORTICITY MAXIMUM...WILL CROSS THE AREA  
UNDER AN H500 RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL  
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
RADAR IMAGES SHOW A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND  
MOVING NORTH OVER CENTRAL OH AT 18Z. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO  
MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF WV LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER LOOSING THE AFTERNOON  
HEATING...SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DECREASE FURTHER MORE.  
THEREFORE...ONLY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE  
FOR THESE AREAS. DESPITE THE INCREASE OF DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE  
AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS PRECLUDING THE FORMATION OF  
WIDESPREAD FOG...EXCEPT OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS  
LIKE THE TYGART RIVER VALLEY.  
 
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO PUMP HIGHER  
DEWPOINTS...INTO THE MID 60S...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE  
PASS BY. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRI STATE AREA...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEAST OH...AND NORTHEAST KY VALID THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  
BELIEVE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. KEPT MENTION OF SUCH RISK IN HWO.  
 
FOR TEMPERATURES...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS...AS  
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE PROVIDING A MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT.  
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND  
TROUGH TO THE W. A FEW DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE A  
KICKER FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS  
DIFFICULT...THUS WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE  
MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  
 
FOR TEMPS...STAYED MAINLY WITH INHERITED VALUES...WITH A SLIGHT  
BLEND TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH  
CHANGE IN FORECAST TRENDS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT  
CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND  
WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF  
THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE  
AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES. SOME LOW TO MID  
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY AND  
PORTIONS OF WV THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST  
FLOW WILL BRING JUICY AIR MASS TO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND AROUND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST  
NO LIGHTNING WITH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND  
OH. IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO REACH SOUTHEAST OH...ROUGHLY AROUND 23Z.  
THEREFORE...DELAYED VCTS AT HTS AND PKB AROUND THAT TIME.  
CONVECTION ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS WE LOOSE THE  
DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5000  
FEET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS  
MAINLY AROUND SHOWERS. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOW  
ATTM...THEREFORE...DID NOT INCLUDE SHRA IN TAFS.  
 
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE. ADDED VCTS AT PKB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 17Z.  
 
FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY OVER  
AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN...AND OVER THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS  
LIKE EKN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO KEPT DENSE FOG OUT OF EKN TAF.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM  
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY  
FORECAST.  
   
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY
 
LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL  
NEAR TERM...ARJ  
SHORT TERM...KMC  
LONG TERM...KMC  
AVIATION...ARJ  
 
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