294  
FXUS61 KRLX 260209  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
1009 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES  
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY  
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
1000 PM UPDATE... COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKING IT INTO CWA...WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN SE OHIO STARTING TO DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME  
CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWERED  
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BASED ON NEW SREF.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO  
THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A  
DRY FROPA. SOME POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS  
THE MOUNTAINS AND S COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT  
DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.  
 
A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE  
GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE  
EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A  
TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS.  
 
OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND  
TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES  
TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS  
AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST  
OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY.  
 
ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER  
THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.  
OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF  
I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD  
FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN  
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY  
FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE  
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED  
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE  
SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY  
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS  
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED.  
TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL  
START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY.  
LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY  
FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO  
TONIGHT. COULD GET A BRIEF GUST OF 20KTS AS THE FRONT PASSES. SATELLITE  
SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.  
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EASTERN  
LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL HAVE  
SOME FLOW TO KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP...AND LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG CHANGES MAY VARY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE SUN 10/26/14  
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13  
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09  
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L M M H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...  
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26  
NEAR TERM...MZ/30  
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM...JMV  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
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