627  
FXUS61 KRLX 292149  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
549 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RAISE SHOWER CHANCE TODAY IN THE  
MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS FOR MID WEEK. COLD FRONT  
ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
545 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK. JUST MADE MINOR  
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.  
ALSO WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POP BASED ON CURRENT PRECIPITATION  
COVERAGE ON RADAR.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS MOISTURE FROM  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE OVERSPREADS THE MOUNTAINOUS  
COUNTIES...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS PARTS OF  
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES AS  
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD BONNIE IS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE  
GROUND ON WESTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND WITH THUNDER IN THE WESTERN  
ZONES TODAY...AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH BONNIE.  
 
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE  
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT KY AND WV  
COUNTIES...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT...ENTERING INDIANA AT  
18Z...MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL BE  
RATHER LIMITED DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  
 
DRIER...AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON  
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL STILL EXIST  
ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/EXIT OF THE FRONT.  
 
NEXT CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM. AT THIS  
POINT...THINKING BEST BET/LOCATION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ACROSS  
THE NORTH AND WEST...WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT IS  
POSSIBLE. STILL...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED  
OUT IN OTHER LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE  
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY 12Z. MEANWHILE, A COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED  
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER UNTIL  
TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS ALONG THE  
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GETS SQUEEZE ACROSS  
THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
THE FRONT CROSSES TO THE SOUTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE DIURNAL  
HEATING AND NEAR CALM FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR  
STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT  
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOWLANDS AND LIKELY POPS OVER ELEVATIONS OF 3000  
FEET AND HIGHER.  
 
CURRENT TRACK OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE APPROACH FROM  
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ATTM, SEEMS THAT THE  
SHOWERS WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE A  
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.  
 
WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF THE SUPER BLEND AND THE ALL BLEND  
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR  
AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE  
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 04-06Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
OHIO...NE KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER.  
HOWEVER...FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TONIGHT IN ANY  
LOCATION THAT RECEIVES RAINFALL TODAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA REMAINS  
IN QUESTION TODAY. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN QUESTION.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09  
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...  
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL  
NEAR TERM...MPK/SL  
SHORT TERM...ARJ  
LONG TERM...ARJ  
AVIATION...SL  
 
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