284  
FXUS61 KRLX 241734  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
134 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON  
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES  
MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME...WHICH HAS REALLY MIXED OUT THE MOISTURE  
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS. AREA OF HIGH  
LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IOWA APPROACHES  
TONIGHT...AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE FRIDAY WITH A WEAK  
COLD FRONT CROSSING CWA. HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A 500MB  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY AS WELL...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN...OR AT  
LEAST MAINTAIN...THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT  
SLOWER WITH THIS...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH A BIT STRONGER  
SURFACE LOW AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND INCREASED POPS. ALSO ADDED  
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDER  
ANTICIPATING SOMETHING MUCH LIKE THE FRONT EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH  
A CELL OR TWO THAT LIGHTS UP.  
 
BLENDED WARMER MET INTO LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL A TOUCH  
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER  
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/RAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK COLD  
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL  
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED  
PRECIPITATION. SO...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY...  
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END. HOWEVER...A SECOND WEAK COLD  
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE LATE SATURDAY INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION  
WITH THE FRONT...AND THEY LIMIT THE LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR  
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FAR  
NORTH FOR SATURDAY.  
 
BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD  
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER. THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP  
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS WORKING NORTH AS  
A WARM FRONT. THE GFS INDICATES THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON  
SUNDAY.  
 
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MODELS FOR  
POSSIBLE INCLUSION ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.  
 
BASED ON EXPECTED WEATHER AND LATEST MOS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR  
TWEAKS TO TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS  
WARMER FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE TWEAKED OUR TEMPERATURES UP  
A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.  
 
DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SUNDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN TWEAKED  
OUR EXPECTED HIGHS UP. BUT I STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH  
UP WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING  
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS  
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES  
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS  
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.  
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE  
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH  
CLOUDS DRIFT BY. HAVE SOME MVFR CIG/VIS IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING  
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH A  
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT  
NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.  
 
LIGHT EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH  
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CAT CHANGES WITH SHOWERS MAY VARY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...  
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL  
NEAR TERM...MZ  
SHORT TERM...JSH  
LONG TERM...SL  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
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