310  
FXUS61 KRLX 270904  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
504 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSOLVE OVER THE AREA  
BY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL  
POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ANY MORNING DENSE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 13Z.  
 
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION  
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS  
BOUNDARY, TOGETHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES  
AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAPABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED WATER PROBLEMS ALONG  
THEIR PATH.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES LOWLANDS, TO  
THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SEVERAL WAVES, SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WILL ALREADY BE ARRIVING  
THURSDAY MORNING RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING  
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS NOW, BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES STILL  
IN PLACE CAPPED POPS AROUND 80 PERCENT. THAT WAVE SHOULD MOVE  
THROUGH THURSDAY AND HEAD ON ITS WAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PULL A COLD  
FRONT SOUTH.  
 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE  
LIKELY POPS WITH THIS. WEAK HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR FRIDAY  
NIGHT WITH JUST LOW CHANCE POPS LINGERING.  
 
NEXT SURFACE WAVE APPROACHING FOR SATURDAY. MODELS HAVING A BIT  
HARDER TIME RESOLVING THIS ONE, BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF MAX  
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, SO INCLUDED SOME LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA.  
 
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES. WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS,  
EXPECTING WARM NIGHTS WITH AVERAGE TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME  
HIGHS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER  
WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
WIDESPREAD MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 13Z.  
THE LIFTING FOG COULD END AS A LOW LEVEL DECK MAINLY ACROSS  
CENTRAL WV AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY STRONG STORMS WITH BRIEF IFR  
CONDITIONS ALONG THEIR PATH.  
 
OVERNIGHT FOG COULD REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FOR LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT FOR STRONG GUSTS  
IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT  
WEST.  
 
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY  
AFFECT ANY TAF SITE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE WED 07/27/16  
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20  
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16  
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...  
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE INTO MID WEEK  
DEPENDING, IN PART, ON OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THE  
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/ARJ  
NEAR TERM...ARJ  
SHORT TERM...MZ  
LONG TERM...SL  
AVIATION...ARJ  
 
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