842  
FXUS61 KRLX 010002  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
802 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH  
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
325 PM UPDATE...JUST MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE  
POP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS  
EVENING. OTHER THAN THAT THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
A HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY UNDER CALM OR LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON CU TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME RIVER VALLEYS  
MAY SEE DENSE FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY.  
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER ON FRIDAY. NO MUCH  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALLOWS FOR POP BEING IN THE CHANCE  
CATEGORY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
USING A NATIONAL BLEND FROM THE WPC, INCREASED POPS IN THE  
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND  
PUSHES ALL REMAINING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE A CONVECTIVE  
COMPLEX LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY WILL  
PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY  
REMAINS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT MAKES IT  
WAY INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. CHANCES OF STORMS REMAIN IN THE  
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. TEMPERATURES  
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE PERIOD WHILE DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO  
CLIMB UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AGAIN, USING THE NATIONAL BLEND FROM THE WPC SINCE THE GFS AND  
ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. LEFT POPS IN THE AREA  
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY AND BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN  
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AMPLE MOISTURE AT 850 AND AN UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH AT 500 WILL ALLOW FOR VERTICAL ACCENT AND CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW BEGINS TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST FOR LATE  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL  
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CALM WINDS AND DECENT  
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE  
AGAIN TONIGHT IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE FOG DOES NOT LOOK  
LIKE IT WILL BE QUITE AS DENSE AND WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS OVERNIGHT  
LAST NIGHT.  
 
LIFR VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GREATEST  
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT EKN AND PKB. ANY OVERNIGHT FOG WILL  
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 13Z FRIDAY.  
 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WILL START TO AFFECT THE  
AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND POINTS WEST ON LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT  
IT SHOULD JUST BE GETTING TO PKB AROUND 22Z OR 23Z SO I LEFT IT  
OUT OF THIS ROUND OF TAFS AS I'M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT SHOWERS  
WILL GET THERE BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF VALLEY FOG MAY VARY  
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS COULD REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT  
AND DAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE FRI 07/01/16  
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11  
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L  
 
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ  
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK  
SHORT TERM...KMC/99  
LONG TERM...KMC/99  
AVIATION...MPK  
 
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