286  
FXUS61 KRLX 210229  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
929 PM EST MON FEB 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WEAK SYSTEM LATE  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS  
COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 9 PM MONDAY...  
BASICALLY TOOK MOST OF THE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT.  
DESPITE VALLEY WINDS DECOUPLING FOR AT LEAST MUCH OF THE NIGHT  
BEFORE INCREASING LATE, AIR IS JUST TOO DRY.  
 
AS OF 130 PM TODAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY SLIDES OFF TO THE  
NORTHEAST, AND OFF THE NORTHEAST U. S. COAST, ON TUESDAY. THAT  
HIGH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS  
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE  
IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH  
APPROACHES, BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN  
ABSENT.  
 
LOWERED LOWS A BIT TONIGHT BUT STILL CLOSER TO THE HIGHER MET  
VERSUS THE LOWER MAV. HIGHS TUESDAY WERE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF  
THE GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...  
 
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY  
EVENING/NIGHT, AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND MOISTURE FROM A LOW  
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO, INTERACT. OVERALL, AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT,  
WITH GREATEST ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES, WHERE  
MORE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW. MOSTLY DRY BY  
MID WEEK, BUT A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE  
AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY  
ACROSS THE NORTH, AS IT DOES SO. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK  
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AS  
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN  
ADDITION TO THE WARMTH, WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WE APPROACH THE END OF  
THE WORK WEEK, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DUE TO ENHANCED  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...  
 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT  
POSSIBLE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS  
TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT, GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE  
LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA, WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND  
SHEAR WILL EXIST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SATURDAY WILL BECOME  
MUCH COOLER, AND WINDY DUE TO STRONG CAA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY  
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER ON INTO SUNDAY,  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
LINGER SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY AS WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR, AND  
THEN HAVE POPS INCREASING PRETTY QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD  
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ECMWF PRETTY QUICK ON MOVING THE MOISTURE  
OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE GFS HAS WRAP-AROUND  
MOISTURE LINGERING. FOR NOW STUCK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND HAVE  
POPS ENDING BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
00Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...  
AS OF 9 PM MONDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING  
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. VFR WITH MAINLY SCT  
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, BUT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR FOG IN THE MOST  
PROTECTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 08Z-12Z, INCLUDING EKN. HIGH CLOUDS  
LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY,  
VFR CEILINGS 4000 FEET WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE  
OHIO RIVER, TO VFR CEILINGS 10000 FEET IN THE EAST. HOWEVER,  
VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET MAY DEVELOP ON EAST FACING SLOPES  
OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST  
FLOW, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MAJOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES OF  
BKW AND EKN.  
 
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10  
KTS LATER TONIGHT, AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.  
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE TUE  
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11  
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...  
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/JW  
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV  
SHORT TERM...MZ  
LONG TERM...MZ  
AVIATION...JMV  
 
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