197  
FXUS61 KRLX 241800  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES  
POSSIBLY PROVIDING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. DRY MIDWEEK UNDER HIGH  
PRESSURE. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES HOLD LATE IN WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...  
 
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SE OHIO AND NE KENTUCKY,  
HOWEVER IN MOST AREAS WATER IS RECEDING AND FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE.  
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES WILL PROVIDE MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.  
MODELS DO SHOW A COUPLE WEAK 500MB RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH  
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. KEPT POPS DRY, BUT DID INCLUDE SOME  
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN GENERALLY  
5-7 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...  
 
COOLER AND DRIER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS UPPER SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL. COULD BE A  
FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION, BUT  
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  
 
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION MID WEEK, FOR A  
RETURN OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER. HOWEVER, A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN  
WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH  
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN, WITH SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN AS THE WEEK  
PROGRESSES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...  
 
VFR CUMULUS FIELD IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME  
AS THE SUN SET. A COUPLE 500MB RIPPLES COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS  
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, BUT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON  
CLOUDS, WE COULD SEE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING  
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.  
OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG AT EKN, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT REAL  
HIGH AT THIS POINT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE  
WEST.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION TONIGHT MAY BE MORE  
WIDESPREAD -- OR NOT OCCUR AT ALL DUE TO CLOUDS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL  
NEAR TERM...MZ  
SHORT TERM...SL  
LONG TERM...SL  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
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