028  
FXUS61 KRLX 270135  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
935 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ACTIVE, MILD PATTERN CONTINUES IN A PARADE OF SOUTHERN STREAM  
SYSTEMS. ONE CROSSES THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 920 PM SUNDAY...  
 
TOOK OUT THUNDER FOR ENTIRE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS  
GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT,  
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST WV BY MORNING.  
 
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL TELL WHAT COMES OF A  
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO  
VALLEY, AND THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET ON THE  
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE  
DIFFLUENT AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  
 
SO FAR, ONLY SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE LIMITED  
SURFACE HEATING. HEATING WAS MORE EVIDENT FARTHER SOUTH, BENEATH  
AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, WHERE THE FIRST  
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING UP IN EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE WRFS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS PEGGED AS THE BEGINNING  
OF THE MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CROSSING THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AS THE CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE  
FORECAST DEPICT.  
 
THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS A WARM  
OCCLUSION THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TONIGHT,  
WHILE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END ONCE THE OCCLUSION  
PUSHES THROUGH. COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS, HRRR AND  
RUC, AND SLOWER NAM AND WRFS IN WINDING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT MORNING STRATUS WHERE THE  
SURFACE OCCLUSION STALLS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.  
 
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY.  
 
USED A BLEND OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW  
POINTS, WHICH DID NOT BRING UP ANY MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE  
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...  
 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT  
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT IS  
LIKELY TO LEAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND IN THE FORM OF STRATUS  
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE  
SAILS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A  
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY MORNING,  
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  
 
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CENTRAL GUIDANCE AND REMAINING ABOVE  
NORMAL, EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...  
 
THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THURSDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  
THIS BRINGS A SURFACE WARM FRONT, ALONG WITH AN INITIAL ROUND  
OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS, THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY EVENING, AS THE SURFACE  
LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
MOST LIKELY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH THE TYPICAL  
DOWNSLOPE SHADOW EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY IN STRONG  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT.  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY BRING UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS  
IN AND NEAR THE WV MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH THE LATTER PART  
OF NEXT WEEKEND MORE LIKELY TO BRING DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER,  
MODELS ARE NOT TOO DIVERGENT ON TIMING OF YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING LATE NEXT SUNDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CENTRAL GUIDANCE AND LOWER THAN THE MEX.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 920 PM SUNDAY...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO  
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS, MOSTLY ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST  
BY AROUND 13Z MONDAY. THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE  
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LOOK FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN A  
FEW OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
15 TO 20 KTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD  
GENERALLY KEEP IFR FOG FROM BECOMING AN ISSUE. HOWEVER,  
PREVAILING VFR CEILINGS BECOME MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z, BUT  
WITH LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY HIGHER MOUNTAINS. NO  
IFR IS FORECAST FOR MAJOR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS  
LIFTING TO VFR CEILINGS 3500-4500 FEET BY 15Z MONDAY.  
 
THE REST OF MONDAY WILL BRING DRY VFR WEATHER, WITH AT MOST A  
4-6KFT STRATOCU DECK.  
 
SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TONIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY  
5 TO 8 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE IFR CEILINGS  
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT  
TO VFR ON MONDAY MAY VARY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE MON 03/27/17  
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11  
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L  
 
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...  
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
RADAR SITE KRLX APPEARS TO HAVE A FAULTY COMPONENT THAT IS  
LEADING TO HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES THAN WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED AT  
TIMES. SO FAR TODAY AND THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, THE RADAR HAS  
PERFORMED NORMALLY. FURTHER EVALUATION AND MONITORING IS  
EXPECTED PRIOR TO ACTION BEING TAKEN.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TRM  
NEAR TERM...JMV  
SHORT TERM...TRM  
LONG TERM...TRM  
AVIATION...JMV  
 
EQUIPMENT...99  
 
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