460  
FXUS61 KRLX 231458  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
1058 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TRYING TO DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL MUGGY TODAY WITH HIGHER  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE  
NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
FORECAST APPEARS TO GENERALLY BE ON TRACK. SO...SEE NO REASON TO  
MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES. STILL MAY BE A QUESTION ABOUT THE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
REGION. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING SOME  
BREAKS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
OVERALL WAS HAPPY WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH  
WE POSTED ON THIS SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR DOWNPOURS. OF  
COURSE...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER...THE FLASH FLOOD  
WARNING COVERAGE WAS MUCH LESS THAN THE WATCH COVERAGE.  
 
IT WAS ANOTHER BUSY GRAVEYARD SHIFT THIS MORNING. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD  
WARNINGS EVEN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OF RICH  
MOIST AIR AT 925 MBS INTO OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD BE BREAKING  
DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING. 925 MB FLOW HAS BEEN TURNING MORE NORTH.  
YET...A FEW SMALL DOWNPOURS WERE STILL LINGERING AT 08Z OVER OUR  
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES INCLUDING TAYLOR AND BARBOUR.  
 
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS KEEPING THE THICK FOG AT BAY IN MOST OF WEST  
VIRGINIA. THE CLEARER SKY EARLIER IN OHIO...ALLOWED FOR THICKER  
FOG. STILL TRIED TO KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT UNDER 00Z GFS MOS  
GUIDANCE...WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO BREAK UP.  
 
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR EASTERN SLOPES THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY THOUGH COULD  
STILL FORM SOME CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.  
 
MORE LATE NIGHT FOG FIGURED 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...AND A SURFACE HIGH  
NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SO HAVE ANY LINGERING POPS SLOWLY  
SINKING SOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE  
REMAINING ALONG THE TUG FORK AND INTO NE KY MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS  
WILL BE RISING...WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIP AS WELL.  
 
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR HIGHS...WHICH REFLECTS SOME COOLER  
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME  
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOSGUIDE FOR  
LOWS...RESULTING IN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. HIGH PRESSURE...AT THE SURFACE  
AND ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE  
WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA  
ON THURSDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
 
WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE 06Z SET OF TAFS FOR THE 12Z SET.  
 
LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AOB 1 THSD FT FIGURED THROUGH 13Z WITH  
HIGHER RIDGES OBSCURED. FIGURING CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW LIFTING UP  
BETWEEN 13Z TO 16Z IN THE WEAK FLOW. SURFACE VISIBILITY FIGURED TO  
BE LOWEST DURING THE PREDAWN AND DAWN TIME FRAME IN SOUTHEAST  
OHIO...WHERE THERE WAS LESS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  
 
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...DRY  
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM  
WEAK NORTH TO EAST. THAT EAST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP MORE LOW STRATUS  
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.  
 
SO HAVE CEILINGS LIFTING INTO 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN AFTER 15Z TODAY.  
VSBY MOSTLY AOA 5 MILES AFTER 15Z. CEILINGS LOWERING NEAR 1 THSD FT  
AGAIN BY 06Z SUNDAY ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...MAYBE INCLUDING KBKW.  
WITH INCREASING SE FLOW A BIT LEARY ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE  
WESTERN LOWLANDS 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WITH WET GROUND...THINKING  
WE NEED MORE TIME TO DRY OUT...SO HAVE FOG FORMING WITH VSBY BLO 3  
MILES IN WV VALLEYS.  
 
VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY CONVECTION.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOW QUICKLY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT...THE CLOUDS  
LIFT AND BREAK UP TODAY WAS IN QUESTION.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H  
HTS CONSISTENCY M H M M M M M M M M M H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M H  
 
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...  
LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 12Z TO 14Z IN EITHER LOW STRATUS  
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ  
NEAR TERM...JSH/KTB  
SHORT TERM...MZ  
LONG TERM...JSH  
AVIATION...KTB  
 
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