844  
FXUS61 KRLX 301744  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
144 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT  
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE  
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A  
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG  
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW  
STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE  
50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.  
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK  
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH  
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING  
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT  
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY  
NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE  
IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DENSE RIVER  
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR KCRW/KEKN WHERE VLIFR FOG WAS CODED UP.  
THINK BL WINDS WILL HOLD UP REMAINING TERMINALS AND LIMIT THEM TO  
LATE MVFR FOG.  
 
ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS  
WITH JUST SOME FLAT DIURNAL CU.  
 
WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND  
10 KTS WITH SFC WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT. WINDS BACK AROUND TO MORE  
WNW FOR FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE SFC.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN  
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BL WINDS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...  
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC  
NEAR TERM...30  
SHORT TERM...JW  
LONG TERM...26/DTC  
AVIATION...30  
 
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