995  
FXUS61 KRLX 290752  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
352 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY.  
UPPER LOW WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...  
 
BUSY NIGHT SO FAR WITH WAVES OF CONVECTION MOVING WEST TO EAST  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS TAKING  
TWO DIFFERENT APPROACHES WITH THIS...ONE CAMP TRANSITIONING  
THINGS NORTH PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT  
THE OTHER CAMP BRINGS THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST STRAIGHT EAST  
INTO I-64 CORRIDOR -- OR JUST NORTH. THIS SEEMS LIKE THE BETTER  
FORECAST WITH NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET STILL IN THE REGION, SO  
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THROUGH 12Z ALONG AND NORTH OF I64, THEN  
TRANSITION ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH AS THE NOSE OF THE JET ALSO  
MOVES NORTH. MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SE OHIO AND ALSO MOUNTAINS  
OF WV.  
 
OPTED TO GO WITH A SHOTGUN FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO EARLY  
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION MOVING  
THROUGH SE OHIO THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL  
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. COMBINED WITH UP TO AN INCH THAT HAS FALLEN  
ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING, ANTICIPATE THERE COULD BE SOME  
ISSUES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...  
 
IN THE WARM SECTOR, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY. OTHERWISE JUST  
LOOKING AT A SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.  
 
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WE SHOULD HAVE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR  
MASS WITH DECENT SHEAR AS WELL. THIS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST AN  
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON EAST  
OF THE OHIO RIVER -- AS NOTED BY MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC. HAVE  
INCLUDED THIS IN THE HWO.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER MOVES  
IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...  
 
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE INFLUENCED BY A CLOSE  
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE FEATURE, BUT HANDLE IT  
DIFFERENTLY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL, CLOUDY AND RAINY  
END OF THE WORK WEEK. STUCK CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS BLEND, WHICH  
DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES, STILL HAS LIKELY POPS THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 143 AM SATURDAY...  
 
MESSY AVIATION SITUATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA  
WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING ENE. OVERALL,  
ONLY EXPECTING SOME BRIEF POCKETS OF IFR IN THE STRONGER CELLS,  
SO DID NOT INCLUDE IFR IN TAFS, HOWEVER AMD TEMPOS WILL BE  
NEEDED IF A STRONGER CELL APPROACHES A TAF SITE.  
 
MAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF AREA  
LATER THIS MORNING WITH VFR AND S TO SW FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
COULD STILL GET SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW CWA AND INCLUDED  
VCTS AT PKB INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD VARY.  
MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE IFR VIS IN TAFS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE SAT 04/29/17  
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19  
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H L M M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M  
 
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ009>011.  
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-  
075-076-083>087.  
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ  
NEAR TERM...MZ  
SHORT TERM...MZ  
LONG TERM...MZ  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
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