869  
FXUS61 KRLX 241833  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
233 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM NORTH TONIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER TO  
START THE WORK WEEK. FRONT MID WEEK, THEN TURNING HOT INTO THE  
END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS  
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SUBTLE  
WAVE AT THE SURFACE. ML CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND PLENTY OF  
BULK SHEAR IS GIVING THE STORMS SOME POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE. ONE  
CELL THAT MOVED ACROSS CHARLESTON EARLIER HAD BROUGHT REPORTS OF SMALL  
HAIL, TORRENTIAL RAIN AND SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW. EXPECT THIS TO BE  
THE CASE WITH ANY BETTER DEVELOPED CELL INTO THIS EVENING, BUT  
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. EXPECT  
THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
DEPARTS.  
 
ADDED IN SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST  
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE  
COMPLEX HEADED INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY PASS OVER THE  
COAL FIELDS. FARTHER NORTH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN WITH  
DRIER CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...  
 
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING THE SIGNIFICANT  
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART, BUT DID LEAVE  
SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES.  
 
NO CHANGES TO THE RIDGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS  
LIKE BOTH THE OPERATIONAL SHORT AND LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW  
BACKING OFF A BIT ON A LATE TUESDAY ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROUGH  
ALOFT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, WARM FRONT  
PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,  
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY  
INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL  
INCREASE AS WELL BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...  
 
COULD SEE A COUPLE DIFFERENT LINES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH  
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW  
ALOFT TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST. STOUT RIDGING ALOFT  
EXPECTED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING GRADUALLY INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS REPRESENTS THE NEXT HEAT WAVE FOR THE  
WHOLE REGION, AND HAVE SEEN GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON THE SLOW  
INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN  
CHANCES PLUMMET WITH THE RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BECOMING  
DOMINANT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS  
EVENING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT BRIEF MVFR TO  
IFR POSSIBLE IN BETTER DEVELOPED CELLS. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH  
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. WITH LIGHT FLOW, EXPECT  
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER AS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME  
SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH, SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE  
IMPROVING VISIBILITY DURING THE PRE-DAWN. SHOWERS AND STORMS  
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAIN HOW  
FAR NORTH THEY WILL MAKE IT SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS YET.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN STORMS TODAY. FOG  
TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...  
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26  
NEAR TERM...MZ  
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM...26  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page