395  
FXUS61 KRLX 011805  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE  
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
UPDATE...  
SKY GRIDS WERE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE THIS MORNING SO BROUGHT THOSE  
DOWN. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS NEW MODEL DATA  
STREAMS IN.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD REMAINS IN CONTROL PROVIDING MOSTLY  
DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE  
TO DIURNAL HEATING. ANY SHOWER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.  
 
A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR  
DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PLACES  
REACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND TO THE MID 80S TO  
UPPER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND  
NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE. SO WILL CONTINUE  
WITH A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE  
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOWING SIGNALS ON THE SREF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER  
OHIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH  
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION  
SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL  
DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO  
THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND.  
 
IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND  
SOUTHEAST OHIO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS  
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...CREATING HAVOC FOR THE  
FORECAST THROUGH DAWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ON THE LOWER  
SIDE...BUT COULD SEE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY  
HAMPER VALLEY FOG FORMATION. GOING ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE AND WILL  
PUT VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED ON LAMP GUIDANCE.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM  
FORECAST.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02  
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ/30  
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26  
SHORT TERM...JW  
LONG TERM...FB  
AVIATION...26  
 
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