216  
FXUS61 KRLX 040813 CCA  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES  
TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH  
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO  
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE  
PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY  
AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY  
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL  
GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW  
TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL  
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN  
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS  
THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN  
APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP  
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A  
STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE  
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK  
500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST. AS A RESULT...  
HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN  
BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  
STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING  
SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW. ALSO INCREASED  
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE  
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.  
 
THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH  
ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH.  
SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY.  
 
THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING  
FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER.  
 
CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...  
BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW  
CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN  
WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING.  
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH  
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG.  
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH  
THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR  
NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT  
THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS  
ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS  
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY.  
WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS  
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR TO SETTLE INTO TO ALL TAF  
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID  
MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE  
MOUNTAINS TODAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY  
VARY TONIGHT.  
 
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS  
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR  
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES  
SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015-016-  
024>027-033>037.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ  
NEAR TERM...MZ  
SHORT TERM...KTB  
LONG TERM...ARJ  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
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