156  
FXUS61 KRLX 021908  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
208 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER TROUGH LATE SUNDAY  
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY. MILDER MID  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...  
 
LOW STRATUS BEHAVING AS EXPECTED THUS FAR TODAY WITH NAM NEST  
MODEL HAVING AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS. THERE IS AN AREA OF WEAK  
CAA EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF VORTICITY ADVECTION PIVOTING THRU  
OH, HELPING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE. EXPECT  
THIS TO PIVOT THRU THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO  
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, THOUGH THERE IS A  
CONCERN THAT ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY GIVEN A MEAGER  
MOISTURE DEPTH. STILL, THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SEEM TO FIND A WAY  
TO FLAKE DESPITE CLOUD TOP TEMPS/LIFT EXTENDING ONLY TO -6C.  
ALLOWED FOR A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGER  
CONUNDRUM CENTERS AROUND WHAT TO DO WITH THE STRATUS. MOST OF THE  
MODELS SHOW ENOUGH DRYING BENEATH THE INVERSION TO ALLOW FOR MORE  
OF BROKEN DECK LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING ON SATURDAY. THE NAM  
NEST HAS HAD THE HOT HAND SO WILL LEAN ON IT FOR SKY COVERAGE  
THROUGH TOMORROW. EVEN IF THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVER SE  
OH AND PARTS OF WV INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON  
ERADICATING THE STRATUS COMPLETELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
EVEN IF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT  
LIVED AS CIRRUS ADVECTS IN FROM THE SW IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. HAVE  
GONE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED THINKING. THIS  
IS ALSO REFLECTED FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WITH COOLER TEMPS NORTH AND  
WARMER TOWARD KY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...  
 
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ZONES SUNDAY FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THESE SYSTEM WILL BE MUTUALLY  
EXCLUSIVE, AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE  
TWO. HOWEVER, THE NET RESULT WILL BE NEARLY EQUAL TIMING WITH  
PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE CWA. MAY GET LIGHT SNOW AT FIRST OVER THE  
SW VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS, BUT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A LIGHT RAIN EVENT  
UNTIL THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW  
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW ARE LESS THAN AN  
INCH IN THOSE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...  
 
NEXT SYSTEM IS A 500MB TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THAT WILL WORK  
ITS WAY INTO THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS, THE WARM SECTOR INTO OUR AREA FROM THE  
MID LATITUDE WAVE CYCLONE LOOKS LESS PRONOUNCED, AND WILL KEEP THE  
MID WEEK HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WHILE RAIN MIGHT BE A  
BIT HEAVIER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM FORECAST  
PERIOD, IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA FAIRLY  
EFFICIENTLY. AT THIS POINT, THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN SHOULD  
AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE  
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...  
 
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK OVER THE AREA PROVIDING FOR MVFR CIGS THRU  
THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS N  
WV BUT SHOULD NOT RESTRICT VSBY BELOW VFR. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO  
SHSN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS/VSBY SHOULD STAY  
BELOW IFR.  
 
LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO QUESTIONS CONCERNING  
THE STAYING POWER OF THE STRATUS DECK. CURRENT THINKING IS SOME  
IMPROVEMENT INTO LOW END VFR TONIGHT AS THE STRATUS LIFTS A BIT  
BEFORE PERHAPS LOWERING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD MORNING.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES IN CLOUDS MAY  
VARY. POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP MORE OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN  
MORE WIDESPREAD VFR THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L  
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M M M M M M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L L H H L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L M L H L H M L L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H L M M L  
 
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...  
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN -SHSN AT HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES INTO  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...30/26  
NEAR TERM...30  
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM...26  
AVIATION...30  
 
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