900  
FXUS61 KRLX 190606  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
206 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF  
A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY HERALDS AN  
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER...AS ANOTHER FOLLOWS MID-LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
200 AM UPDATE...  
CONTINUED THE EVENING IDEA OF SLOWING POPS A BIT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY  
JUST W OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WRFARW SEEMED TO HAVE HAVE A DECENT  
HANDLE ON THIS. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.  
 
PREV DISCN...  
IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...WAS A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE SHOWERS  
NORTH ON SUNDAY...INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. FIGURING THE  
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DELAYED THE ONSET IN THE WESTERN  
DOWNSLOPE AREAS.  
 
AFTER THE INITIAL SUPPORT AND SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH...THE STRONG DEW  
POINT BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN FROM THE TUG FORK VALLEY ON NW  
INTO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR  
UPSTREAM - TO THE WEST. CONVECTION COULD FORM TO OUR WEST AND REACH  
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EVENING. WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WILL  
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM REACHING AS FAR  
EAST AS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND THE HTS TRI STATE...BUT ALSO  
ALONG THE KY BORDER TO INCLUDE OUR 2 IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER  
TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS  
AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END  
BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BEFORE A COLD FRONT  
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING  
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT...LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE  
FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TOWARD THE EARLIER PART OF THE  
DAY MONDAY...SO THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE  
AREA AND POPS ACTUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE  
DAY. IN ADDITION...THE SPEED OF THE TWO SYSTEMS LOWERS THE POTENTIAL  
FOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE  
FRONT COMES ACROSS...WITH A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
OVERALL...WE LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT  
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BEST CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE LOOKS TO BE  
FRIDAY MORNING AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC FOR POPS/SKY/HIGH  
TEMPS. UNDERCUT WPC TEMPS A BIT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOTH GFS AND  
ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS ON WET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH  
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL  
BE FOUND AT BKW ON STRONG AND GU STY SE FLOW...WITH PEAK GUSTS UP  
AROUND 30 KTS. CIGS THERE COULD GET CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO IFR  
RANGE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IN DURATION IN THE DOWNSLOPE  
AREA W OF THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING CRW CKB AND EKN.  
 
THUNDER IS NOT FCST...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION IN THE HTS TRI STATE AREA SUNDAY EVENING NEAR THE SFC WARM  
FRONT.  
 
LIGHT NE SFC FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING AND VEERING TO SE  
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOMING GUSTY SE ON SUNDAY AND THEN DIMINISHING AND  
BECOMING S TO SE SUNDAY NT. MODERATE SE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME  
STRONG SUNDAY STARTING EARLY ON...AND THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME S TO  
SW SUNDAY NT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING IF  
SFC WINDS DO NOT START TO PICK UP BY DAWN.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REACH  
SURFACE...THEY MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR LLWS HTS-CRW VCNTY  
AROUND 10 TO 13Z SUNDAY. ALSO...TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF IFR CEILINGS AT  
BECKLEY COULD VARY..FCST IS CURRENTLY RIGHT AT THE MVFR THRESHOLD  
/1KFT/ 15Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MON.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE SUN 04/19/15  
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26  
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM  
SHORT TERM...JMV  
LONG TERM...MZ  
AVIATION...TRM  
 
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