258
FXUS61 KRLX 060216
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008
SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROF DRIFTS EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA...WHILE STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE
FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT FOR MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED
CLEARED OUT POPS UP NORTH AND AREAS WEST OF I79. ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN TO SCHC ALONG SOUTHERN MTNS/EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL LOSS OF COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/SHOWERS OVER THE AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER...MODELS SLIDE A VORT MAX NORTH ALONG EAST SIDE OF
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT WARRANTING THE POPS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES.
MAINTAINED FOG IN WX GRIDS...WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSER FOG WILL BE REALIZED ALONG RIVERS.
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
BREAKS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON SKIES RESULTED IN DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT SERVED AS FOCUS AREAS FOR CONVECTION THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
UPPER SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH/SFC LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. THIS MAIN
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER WV BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THEREFORE...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXCEPT UPPER 50S
OVER AREAS THAT CLEAR. A WARMER TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ON.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT TIMING IN
MODELS VARIES WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP SMALL
POPS OVER THE AREA BUT WILL NOT TRY TO PIN IT DOWN TO AN EXACT
TIMING. BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AND PUSHES
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WILL INCREASE POPS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THIS MOISTURE BECOMES AMPLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY SIZABLE DIFFERENCES FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...STALLING AROUND OR SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...THEN MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. SCT
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SOME
SCT SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN MTN TAFS.
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD OHIO RIVER VCNTY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AFTER
03Z SUNDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR VIS/CEILINGS 06-12Z. AREAS NEAR RIVERS
WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY ACROSS ALL SITES.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z MON/...IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30
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