004  
FXUS61 KRNK 260556  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
156 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE  
WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A FAST MOVING, MOISTURE LIMITED,  
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON  
TUESDAY. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MID- WEEK BEFORE HEAT  
AND HUMIDITY, ALONG WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 850 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
MUCH DRIER AIR, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, STILL  
REMAINS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WHERE SOME  
MOISTURE LINGERS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MTV-DAN LINE THIS  
EVENING. HOWEVER AS A PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE/SPEED MAX CROSSES  
TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT, SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR FILTER SOUTHEAST IN  
ITS WAKE, WITH THE LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ALSO  
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD MAKE FOR MAINLY CLEAR  
SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS  
LOWS TO SETTLE OUT MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT AROUND 60  
SOUTHEAST, AND IN THE 40S ACROSS THE DEEPEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS  
PENDING ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION LATE.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
OUR REGION WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST OF THE  
CAROLINAS, AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW YORK,  
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER  
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 40S  
WERE COMMON ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE UPPER 50S ACROSS  
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. BANDS OF SEMI-OPAQUE CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM  
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS TREND  
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE  
DECREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AS THE JET RESPONSIBLE SHIFTS  
EASTWARD. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND TO THE LIGHT OR CALM SIDE. WITH  
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL ARE FORECAST. ANTICIPATE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,  
WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER 40S.  
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED.  
 
ON MONDAY, DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID  
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 80S TO THE LOWER 80S  
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PICTURE  
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE GET IN WINTER  
MONTHS. LACK OF GOOD RETURN MOISTURE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL LIMIT  
THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS, AS WELL AS LACK OF STRONG SFC SUPPORT.  
ANTICIPATE MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAYBE A STORM OR  
TWO, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
DRY AIR RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SFC HIGH  
OVERHEAD. STILL TEMPS THIS PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE  
DEWPOINTS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND 5H RIDGE WORKS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM  
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WILL SEE RETURN FLOW  
AROUND SOUTHEAST HIGH WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO TYPICAL LATE  
JUNE/EARLY JULY NUMBERS. ALSO WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SOME  
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE STORMS FRIDAY-AND AS  
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST EDGES CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY, SHOULD SEE  
A BETTER CHANCE INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 150 AM EDT MONDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF  
VALID PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING ACROSS MAINLY THE  
NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING  
MARKED ONLY BY SOME SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS, MOSTLY IN THE 060-080  
RANGE. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, LIKELY NEVER  
CROSSING THE ALLEGHANY FRONT, AND DISSIPATING BEFORE DAYBREAK.  
OTHERWISE, LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SKC OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS MUCH  
DRIER THAN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT, SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY FOG  
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. LAST NIGHT KDAN HAD A T/TD OF 70/70.  
TONIGHT THE T/TD HAS DROPPED TO 60/60, BUT THERE WAS NO LATE DAY  
NEARBY RAIN AND THERE IS A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. THUS,  
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG ANYWHERE TONIGHT IN THE TAFS AT THIS  
TIME, BUT WILL WATCH AS THE THREAT IS NOT ZERO AT THIS TIME OF  
YEAR.  
 
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY, LOOK FOR JUST FEW-SCT CU IN  
THE 040-060 RANGE, MOSTLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SCT 150-200  
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE  
IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE  
OHIO VALLEY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID  
PERIOD.  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN W TO WNW 0-5KTS AT NIGHT, 6-12KTS DAYTIME WITH  
LOW END GUSTS AT MOST STATIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY  
AFTERNOON MOSTLY < 20KTS.  
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.  
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 13Z, THEN HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID  
PERIOD.  
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE  
TAF VALID PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A  
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS  
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECTING OVERALL VFR  
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY  
MORNING MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.  
 
BY FRIDAY, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE  
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND BE LOCATED OFF THE SC/NC COAST INTO  
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO  
RETURN TO THE AREA. AS A RESULT LOOK FOR INCREASING DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND, MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF  
SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL  
ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING  
FOG/LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SUB-VFR  
CIGS AT TIMES DURING THESE HOURS.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH  
NEAR TERM...DS/JH  
SHORT TERM...WP  
LONG TERM...WP  
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB  
 
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