630
FXUS61 KRNK 021900
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW FLAKES EARLY ON, BUT A
QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY, AND THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
1. A COLD AND WET DAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-64.
2. A FEW FLAKES EARLY ON FOR FOLKS ALONG AND NORTH OF 460 IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF 460 IN VIRGINIA. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKING FURTHER
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR, WHEREAS PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A FURTHER NORTH TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THIS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER HAVE DECREASED,
AND HAVE BECOME AROUND 20% OR LESS FOR AREAS NORTH OF 460. WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF 460, SO
HAS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF 460 WILL GENERALLY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH
MORE THAN A RAIN SNOW MIX. MOST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF 460, WITH A 2-3 DEGREE
WARM NOSE AT 850MB PLUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO
RUN AROUND 34-36 DEGREES. OVERALL, MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA, AS EVEN HREF GUIDANCE HAS A LESS THAN 20%
CHANCE OF EVEN 0.1 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF 460.
REGARDLESS, A FEW FLAKES CAN'T BE RULED OUT EARLY ON ACROSS THE
AREA PRIOR TO WARM AIR AT THE 850MB LEVEL SCOURING OUT ANY
PROLONGED EVENT. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END ACROSS THE AREA BY
THE 7-8PM TIMEFRAME FOR PIEDMONT LOCATIONS, AND 2-3PM FOR
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
WITH A PSEUDO COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT IN PLACE TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 40S AREAWIDE,
WITH NC COUNTIES POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
2) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT,
MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INITIALLY, BUT QUICKLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND. THE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY MONDAY, WITH THE
CLOCKWISE FLOW TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING AS A RESULT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL, WITH 30S
TO LOW 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BY MONDAY, AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY, HIGHS RISE INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AREA-WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN
CONSISTENT, IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S EACH MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK, MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
NEXT WEEK, WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ACTING AS
A BLOW TORCH TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS
COULD BE NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MIDWEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING THE MID-
ATLANTIC IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES HEADING
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH HOW STRONG THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE AND HOW QUICKLY IT ADVANCES EAST INTO OUR AREA,
BUT REGARDLESS, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL STAY
CONSISTENT, GENERALLY IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LWB, WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. ONCE LWB'S
RESTRICTIONS LIFT, VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FOR ALL
TERMINALS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY STARTS TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING TONIGHT, WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS DON'T LOOK TO TO INCREASE MUCH BEYOND 5 KNOTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CREEP INTO
DAN AND POSSIBLY BCB AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE REGION; HOWEVER, THEY LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED,
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER SATURDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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