678
FXUS61 KRNK 022329
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
729 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THANKS TO A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES DURING THE
WEEKEND. A LARGE DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THIS SECOND FRONT
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 720 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VA BUT
WEAKENING AS IT COMES INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHOULD SEE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
TOWARD DAWN AND MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS TO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST VA/SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST, SOME 40S
IN THE VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE STARTING TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING THE
REGION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG AND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS WILL PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
LIKELY PUT A CAP ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS DO
INCREASE INTO THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOWARDS
80 IN THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, CAMS SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS MAY NOT
ARRIVE IN THE PIEDMONT UNTIL SUNSET AND MAY DIE OUT DUE TO THE LACK
OF AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS, THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GENERAL
ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50". SOME
STORMS MAY BE UPSLOPE BASED OR TRAIN OVER A SINGLE LOCATION SO
LOCALIZED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE UP TO ONE INCH.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE.
2) SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE PERIOD.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT LATE WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
FORMED DURING THE DAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AFTER THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BIGGER EVENT WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA MID
TO LATE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY, BUT
WILL LOSE STEAM AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. NONETHELESS, LOCATIONS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AREA-WIDE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA THAT IS ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. CURRENTLY, A MARGINAL RISK IS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES. THE PIEDMONT WILL
BE DRIER, DUE TO A MUCH WEAKER FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY
PULLS BACK NORTH.
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH LITTLE
CHANGES BEHIND THE FRONT, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
QPF TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWN, WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE PIEDMONT WILL MOSTLY REMAIN DRY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED
SPOTS COULD SEE AROUND 0.10". UP TO 0.25" IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S/80S, WITH UPPER 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S MIDWEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH, QUIET WEATHER
BEHIND THE FRONT.
2) TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
BEGINNING SUNDAY.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST, AS A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY, HELPING AID IN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN, WITH POPS CURRENTLY
AROUND 40%. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING FRONT WILL KEEP
RAIN COVERAGE LESS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH,
WITH A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION,
WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER BY TUESDAY AS TO WHETHER THE HIGH WILL SINK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO, OR IF MOISTURE TRIES TO
SURGE NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW, POPS ARE KEPT LOW,
AROUND 10-20% UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S. SOME EASTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW 90S. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES FALL, WITH HIGHS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S, WITH A FEW 60S IN THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 720 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT LWB BUT WILL BE IFFY WITH SOME CLOUDS AT
TIMES. STILL WILL HAVE IFR TEMPO LIFR TOWARD 12Z.
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS WED
MORNING WITH VCTS POTENTIAL AT BLF, BUT TOO LOW ON COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME FOR MENTION AT LWB/BCB/ROA BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE SHOWERS/FEW STORMS REACH LWB/BCB BY AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT BLF WITH SHOWERS IN
VICINITY IN THE 14Z-19Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND RELATIVELY QUIET OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FADE BY WED EVENING. A FRONT
ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL
SUB-VFR. KDAN AND KLYH ARE THE LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER TERMINALS. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WIND STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY CHANGING DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST. OUTSIDE OF STORMS EXPECT VFR INTO SUNDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...CG/WP
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