956
FXUS61 KRNK 251104
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
604 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE.
A WINTER STORM IS ONGOING AND ALL LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE
AREAWIDE.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ALL DAY TODAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAVE RESULTED IN VERY SLICK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED UNLESS ABSOLUTELY
NECESSARY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.
SNOW WILL TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND THEN TO WIDESPREAD FREEZING
RAIN LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT, EXTREME COLD LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN TO WIDESPREAD FREEZING
RAIN LATER TODAY.
WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ONGOING WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY WEST TO TEXAS. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, LEADING TO CONTINUED
WINTRY WEATHER. SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN A TRANSITION TO SLEET FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA, WITH ONLY THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY STILL ALL SNOW. THIS MAY LAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS, BUT THOSE LOCATIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN TO
SLEET BY DAYBREAK. STILL MOSTLY SLEET SOUTH OF I-64, WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NC
AND PORTIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM, AND THIS IS VERY EVIDENT BY CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
VARIOUS WEATHER STATIONS ACROSS NC. MULTIPLE STATIONS NOW
OBSERVING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ELEVATIONS AROUND
3600FT-4000FT. THIS INDICATES THAT THE WARM LAYER IS EXPANDING,
THUS LEADING TO MORE CONFIDENCE THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE
TO FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.4" TO
0.75" FOR MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN/SW VIRGINIA, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ICE... DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES,
RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. SOME GUIDANCE
WARMS TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S,
BUT BASED OFF THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE, ALONG
WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION INTO THE COLD AIR MASS, DIURNAL
WARMING OF ANY KIND WILL BE LIMITED AND CURRENTLY DO NOT
BELIEVE IT WILL WARM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH THE TENDENCY FOR
MODEL BIAS TO ERODE WEDGING TOO QUICKLY/PREMATURELY, HAVE OPTED
TO REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS FURTHER INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS
A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLIER AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE PARENT LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ONCE THIS FINAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH, PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT, WITH JUST LINGERING FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS SOME BACKEND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT,
EXTREME COLD LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
POST WINTER STORM ON MONDAY WILL BE QUIET, OUTSIDE OF SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN WV. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE LOW 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTERACTS WITH THE LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10-20+ MPH GUSTING TO 30-40
MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS REDUCE
SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL GUST TO 20+ MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE BITTERLY COLD, PERHAPS THE COLDEST IN YEARS, AS SNOW PACK ON
THE GROUND COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO BE MAXIMIZED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH THE WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND ZERO IN THE
NC PIEDMONT, AND BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -20 DEGREES. THIS IS
DANGEROUSLY COLD, AND WILL BE MAGNIFIED BY THE FACT MANY MAY
LOSE POWER FROM THE WINTER STORM. ANY PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE
COLD WILL LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND COULD BE LIFE-THREATENING.
EXTREME COLD HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED.
DESPITE THE FRIGID START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE A BALMY 20S IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND TOASTY LOW TO MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS MAY BE
THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND HELP
MELT THE SNOW/ICE. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS CONTINUE ALL WEEK, POSSIBLY
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND A FRONT LATE WEEK. HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS/20S EACH DAY, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS IN NC
REACHING THE LOW 30S. THE EXTREME COLD WILL LIMIT MELTING, AND CAUSE
SOME ROADS TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ALL WEEK. THIS STRETCH OF COLD
COULD BE RECORD-BREAKING IN SPOTS FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW
FREEZING AS THIS LASTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO PATTERN CHANGE IN
SIGHT INTO EARLY FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS PORTIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MIDWEEK, WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS, POSSIBLY STRETCHING AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING, SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN WV THROUGH
THURSDAY, THOUGH THEY WILL AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A MAJOR
WINTER STORMS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT, BUT LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LOW CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. SOME MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR BLF/LWB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PRETTY MUCH UP AND
DOWN THE EAST COAST AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW AND
SUB-VFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
WINDS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
DISCUSSION...BMG/JCB
AVIATION...BMG
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