771  
FXUS61 KRNK 230715  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
315 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC  
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.  
WARMER AIR RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SATURDAY ALONG  
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT FOR MORE RAIN.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WAS LINED UP FROM PA SOUTHWEST TO KY/TN. A  
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE  
GREENBRIER VALLEY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD STILL SEE MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF GREENBRIER AND THE ALLEGHANYS  
BEFORE DAWN.  
 
AT THE SAME TIME WE HAVE DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS  
THIS MORNING WHERE IT HAS CLEARED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH A  
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH.  
 
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, AS MODELS FAVOR AN  
ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS MORNING ONCE THE LINE WEAKENS MAINLY FROM  
THE BUCKINGHAM VA AREA WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SFC  
FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING, REACHING THE  
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
INSTABILITY INCREASES SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH SBCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ANTICIPATED FROM FARMVILLE TO  
WILKESBORO AND POINTS SOUTHEAST, WITH DCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND  
BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS. WILL SEE SOME MULTICELL CLUSTERS DEVELOP FROM  
SOUTHSIDE VA TO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA  
BY EVENING. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK ROUGHLY FROM STAUNTON RIVER  
STATE PARK VA SOUTHWEST TO REIDSVILLE, NC. LEANING TOWARD A SLIGHT  
WESTWARD TREND TO THE OUTLOOK, THOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WINDS ARE  
WEAKER TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS.  
 
DRIER AIR SHIFTS TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/VA NORTH OF BLUEFIELD TO  
ROANOKE THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY EDGES SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT  
STILL SOME SLOWNESS IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY KEEP THE SOUTHEAST IN  
THE SOUPY AIRMASS ONE MORE NIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WANE  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG WILL FORM IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS BY DAWN THURSDAY.  
 
KEPT HIGHS TODAY RUNNING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WEST, TO  
MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.  
 
TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT  
STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE  
GREENBRIER VALLEY, TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE MOUNTAINS,  
SURGING UP TO AROUND 60 ROANOKE TO LYNCHBURG NORTH, AND IN THE  
LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST TO THE NC FOOTHILLS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WASTE NO TIME SLIDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF  
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO THE  
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MOST OF THE REGION A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION  
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VA AND THE  
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF NC. BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL  
BEGIN PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AS SOME WEAK SHORT  
WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP FORM THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE  
WEEKEND. SLOW STORM MOTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY RENEW HYDRO  
CONCERNS THOUGH AFTER A COUPLE OF MAINLY DRY DAYS THE SOIL MAY BE  
AMENABLE TO MORE ABSORPTION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ONE CHARACTERIZED BY A  
GENEROUS RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE  
MID-ATLANTIC WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED IN THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC, EAST OF GA/FL. THIS WILL AGAIN OPEN THE DOOR FOR ATLANTIC  
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NORTHERN  
STREAM ENERGY WILL AGAIN PROGRESS INTO OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION  
ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE, ALLOWING FOR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
SIMILAR THOSE THOSE OF RECENT DAYS. WE EVEN MAY BE INFLUENCED BY  
MOISTURE HEADING NORTH FROM WHAT MAY BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE  
EAST GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE FIVE  
TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 134 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS  
CENTRAL/EASTERN WV WILL IMPACT THE LWB TAF IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME  
FRAME, BUT MODELS SHOWING WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. SO  
LOOK FOR DENSE FOG THEN A TEMPO PERIOD OF HIGHER VSBYS/CIGS  
WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR FOG  
DEVELOPING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER AT BLF/BCB AFTER  
09Z, ALONG WITH TYPICAL CIGS BELOW 1000 FT.  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOG ERODES LEAVING VFR  
CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT  
BUT COULD SEE STORMS FIRE UP AROUND DAN AFTER 20Z, BUT MOST  
MODELS ARE HAVING TRENDS OF STORMS TOWARD RDU/AVC/BUY AREA.  
STILL WILL HAVE VCTS IN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT DAN IN THE 21-23Z  
TIME FRAME, WITH VFR CIGS.  
 
   
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE STREAMS BACK  
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO  
SHOWERS/STORMS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN  
THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP  
NEAR TERM...WP  
SHORT TERM...MBS  
LONG TERM...DS  
AVIATION...JH/RCS/WP  
 
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