972
FXUS61 KRNK 301855
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
255 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. FROST
ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP SOUTH STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. COLD AIR MOVES IN
AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING.
2) NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA IS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DEEP SOUTH STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME RAIN FOR
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. COLD AIR MOVES IN
AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING.
A LARGE MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER CANADA IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ROTATING SHORTWAVES AROUND IT.
ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN GREAT
PLAINS AND NUDGE NORTHWARD AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TRAVELING
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RECEIVE THE BULK
OF THE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, IT MAY BE JUST NORTH ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-460.
RAINFALL TOTALS, HOWEVER, ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN PROJECTED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.
GIVEN WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WE'LL TAKE ANY RAIN WE CAN
GET.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND MAKE THINGS
CHILLY FOR MAY STANDARDS. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WILL BE AROUND
FREEZING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF FROST FOR THE AREA. ANY HEADLINES REGARDING FROST OR
FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE DECIDED AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ENTIRE AREA IS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS AGREEMENT ON THE FORMATION AND PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, BUT
DETAILS GET MURKY ON THE TIMING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
APPROACHES AND MAY FIGHT FOR SPACE AGAINST THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. SINCE THIS EVENT IS ABOUT A WEEK
OUT, IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW OF ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE AREA OR GENERAL IMPACTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO ITS ARRIVAL DATE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING ALL TERMINALS
TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP AND ARE
GUSTING THROUGHOUT THE AREA BETWEEN 15-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL
QUIET DOWN AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS INSISTENT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES, LIKELY DUE
TO RIVER FOG, FOR KLWB EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LACK OF WIND
AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT
CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT ITS DISTRIBUTION, DEPENDING ON HOW LOW
THEY ACTUALLY GO. ONCE THE SUN RISES, ALL FOG WILL DISSIPATE
AND TERMINALS WILL RESUME THEIR VFR STATUS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST TWO OPPORTUNITIES
IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS. ONE IS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THE RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS EVENT WILL PROVIDE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
KLYH AND KDAN. RULE OF THUMB IS, THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO, THE
GREATER YOUR CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL SEND ADDITIONAL
COLD AIR THROUGH SO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS, THERE MAY BE
A ROUND OF FOG FOR AT LEAST KDAN.
THE NEXT EVENT WILL BE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE POTENT AND PROVIDE RAIN
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS
ABOUT A WEEK AWAY, IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE TIMING,
DURATION, AND INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ043-044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG
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