484
FXUS61 KRNK 211509
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1009 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT COMES TO AN END BY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EST SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
STAYED WARMER THAN FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY RISE MAYBE ONE OR TWO DEGREES MORE ACROSS
THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING BECOMES OFFSET WITH CAA. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLY FOR PORTIONS OF NW NORTH
CAROLINA AND SW VIRGINIA WHERE SNOWFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 1PM EDT. OVERALL, EXPECT A COLD DAY TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) COLD TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TROUGH AXIS NOW PUSHING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. FLOW HAS
NOW TURNED NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
AGAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AS WELL, BUT A STRONGER
PUSH AT 850MB WILL COME LATER TODAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING IN
FAVORED WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WITH UPSLOPE STRATUS AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION,
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH, IF ANY DAYTIME WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LITTLE MORE SUN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 40S.
VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND PERHAPS
A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS SHOULD GO
LIGHT/CALM, THEREFORE NOT MUCH CONCERN OF COLD WIND CHILLS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.
2). MAINLY DRY WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
3). GENERALLY GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TRAVEL EXPECTED DURING
THE PRE-CHRISTMAS PERIOD.
GOING INTO THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WE WILL FIND REASONABLY PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LATE DECEMBER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AND ARCTIC AIR REMAINS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
PERIOD WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE GRADUALLY MODERATING AS IT
DRIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION. ALOFT, AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CAUSING
THE UPPER FLOW TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL TRACK TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY BUT BECAUSE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WILL BE SHUNTED NORTHWARD TOWARD PRINCETON.
THIS FRONT WILL BECOME WEST-EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME FROM
NORTHERN WV SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN KY AND BEYOND. ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE AT IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD OUR
REGION WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST TO THE 40S
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S WEST TO THE 50S EAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT MORE
SLOWLY, BUT NONETHELESS WILL WITH TIME. THIS WILL SEE LOWS MORE
IN THE 20S AND 30S THAN THE TEENS AND 20S.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
2) A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DIGS
INTO THE MOUNTAINS IN OUR REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE TROUGHS THAT
ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BUT TIMING
AND IMPACT FOR OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN. INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS AND RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY DIVERT THESE STORM
SYSTEMS AWAY. ANY PATH THESE SYSTEMS TAKE WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED
BY THIS RIDGE SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED AS WE HEAD INTO THE CHRISTMAS
WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, THE RIDGE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND AND BRING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
30S REGION-WIDE. WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS COULD BRING SOME WIND
CHILL VALUES TOWARDS THE UPPER 20S. THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDIER DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EST SATURDAY...
MVFR STRATUS REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE APPALACHIANS,
RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS. UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES AS WELL,
REDUCING VSBY AT TIMES TO 2SM OR LESS FOR BLF. SNOW COVERAGE
WILL TAPER BY LATE MORNING. VFR TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH STRATUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE IT ERODE TONIGHT AND
VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY LATE IN THE 24 HOURS TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD. LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON AVIATION IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ007.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ042-043-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG
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