170
FXUS63 KUNR 241924
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
130 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2008
DISCUSSION
AT 19Z SFC MAP SHOWS WK HIGH PRES ACRS NERN
WY AND FAR WRN SD WITH WK SFC TROF ACRS S-CENT SD. WSR-88D
SHOWS SCTS SHWS/TSTMS IN S-CENT SD IN VCNTY OF SFC TROF.
ALOFT...FLAT UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES NRN PLAINS WITH UPPER
TROF MVG ACRS NORTH CENTRAL MT.
MID LVL S/W NOW MVG THRU CENTRAL MT. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WL
COMBINE WITH CAPES ARD 1500 J/KG LATE THIS AFT AND EVENING TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE TSTMS ACRS AREA...INITIATING
IN NWRN SD/NERN WY LATE THIS AFT AND MVG SE ACRS AREA THRU
06Z AS MID LVL S/W MVS SE ACRS AREA. SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT MID LVL
LIFT MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND.
WILL SEE A LULL AFT S/W MVS THRU AREA WITH ANOTHER WK S/W MVG
INTO AREA FM WEST LATE TONIGHT...MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLD SHW OR
TSTM LATE...WL CONT LOW POPS AFT 06Z.
ON FRI...UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL COMBINE WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR...ESP
BLK HLS/NERN WY...DECENT INSTABILITY...GOOD THETA-E ADV AND CAPES
IN 1000-2000 J/KG TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR STORMS FRIDAY
AFT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...EXPECT STORMS TO FIRST DVLP ACRS NERN
WY IN AFT AND PROGRESS INTO WRN SD BY EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SAT...ANOTHER MID LVL S/W WL MV ACRS REGION. THIS WL COMBINE WITH
GOOD SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CAPES IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WX ACROSS THE AREA.
SAT NIGHT...STG THETA-E ADV WL DVLP ACRS NERN WY BY 06Z AND MV NE
ACRS THE BLACK HILLS AND NWRN SD AFT 06Z...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
SHWS/TSTMS AS IT MVS ACRS THE AREA.
EXTENDED...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. AROUND MIDWEEK
...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BACK TO THE CWA.
AVIATION
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME LIKELY SEVERE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
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