121
FOCN45 CWWG 161900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT TUESDAY JUNE
16 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN ALBERTA
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ALBERTA. AIR QUALITY WARNING FOR NORMAN
WELLS.
OVERVIEW...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER HUDSON
BAY, AN UPPER RIDGE OVER BAFFIN BAY, AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NWT WITH A DIGGING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ALBERTA WITH A 135
KT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF NOTED COMING ONSHORE IN
SOUTHERN BC.
AT THE SURFACE, 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF LOWS CIRCLING
HUDSON BAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE YUKON INTO SOUTHERN AB, WITH COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST AND WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION...
ALBERTA...LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING THROUGH ALBERTA TODAY WILL
TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PROVINCE, SOME OF
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE THROUGH MOST OF ALBERTA. OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA,
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. AS A RESULT OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS,
LCLS IN NORTHERN ALBERTA ARE QUITE LOW. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
SURFACE TROF AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPE, FUNNEL CLOUDS OR AN ISOLTED
LANDSPOUT TORNADO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA, DYNAMICS ARE QUITE FAVOURABLE, WITH 30-40 KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS FROM NORTHWEST OF CALGARY, THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF UP TO 100 KM/H AND LARGE HAIL IN THE 2-4 CM RANGE. A TORNADO WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY EVENING IN NORTHERN ALBERA AND CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PROVINCE TODAY.
SOUTHERN SK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL TRACK
INTO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. A 125-135KT UPPER-LEVEL JET ANALYZED AT
12Z WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON, PLACING SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN IN THE JETS LEFT EXIT REGION. MODEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE
500-1,000 J/KG), 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR, AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SEVERAL OF WHICH
COULD BECOME SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER,
INCREASING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS GUSTS TO ABOUT 90 KM/H ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS AND HAIL UP TO 2-4 CM.
AFTER YESTERDAYS ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA THAT MAY HAVE
PRODUCED A TORNADO, AND WITH THE RISK AREA SHIFTING SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY.
NORTHERN MB/KIVALLIQ...SHOWERS WITH SOME ONSHORE FOG AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA.
BAFFIN/KITIKMEOT/HIGH ARCTIC...SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW ZERO.
OTHERWISE NIL SIG WX.
NT...FOREST FIRE SMOKE FROM A FIRE TO THE WEST OF NORMAN WELLS HAS
BROUGHT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AND POOR AIR QUALITY TO THE
TOWN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE THREAT OF
POOR AIR QUALITY WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOUTHERN MB...NIL SIG WX.
END/FULTON/KOKOLSKY/ALBERS
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