649
FOCN45 CWWG 151900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT THURSDAY
OCTOBER 15 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...WIND WARNING FOR GJOA HAVEN, CHESTERFIELD INLET
AND NAUJAAT.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, A BIG RIDGE SITS OVER THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH WELL TO ITS WEST, AND TROUGHS OVER MANITOBA, THE EASTERN
ARCTIC, AND OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA, A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST BAFFIN ISLAND, A TROUGH EXTENDING TO A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN KIVALLIQ, AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NWT TO ALBERTA.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...A QUIET DAY TODAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT HAS NOW MOVED INTO MANITOBA. TODAY, TOMORROW AND SATURDAY
ALBERTA CAN ENJOY SOME PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES BEFORE RETURNING
TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE WINDS IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG,
ALTHOUGH NOT WARNING-LEVEL IN A WIDESPREAD FASHION. THE LONE
EXCEPTION, AND ONLY MAYBE AT THAT, IS IN THE LEE OF THE MANITOBA
LAKES, WHERE A ROGUE GUST TO 90 KM/H MAY BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 35-40 KNOTS IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND THE LLJ IS PROGGED
TO BE WEAKER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY IN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
THUS, WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY BULLETINS FOR THIS WIND, WHICH WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.
NT...ANOTHER SOMEWHAT QUIET DAY IN THE NT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN BEGINNING TONIGHT. FOG PATCHES WILL LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR A FEW REGIONS. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE YUKON
TODAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INITIAL ROUND OF SNOW TO THE DELTA
REGIONS, WITH 5 TO 10 CM OF SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER 2 CM OR SO ON FRIDAY. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN KITIKMEOT AND A LEE LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN MACKENZIE,
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC MARINE AND COASTAL REGIONS WITH WIND GUST
OF 70 KM/H ANTICIPATED OUT OF THE EAST FOR ULUKHAKTOK.
NUNAVUT...THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST,
FROM THE KITIKMEOT TO THE HUDSON BAY COAST, A TIGHTENING SURFACE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WARNING-LEVEL WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KM/H. THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY SNOW
TO BLOW OVER THE AREA YET, SO NO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES.
THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS QIKIQTARJUAQ: THE SOUTHERN BAFFIN LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT SOMEWHAT, BRINGING A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO PARTS OF
EASTERN BAFFIN ISLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS IS A TRICKY SETUP, AS SIMILAR
SETUPS CAN ALTERNATIVELY BRING HEAVY SNOW OR ALMOST NO SNOW AT ALL TO
THE COMMUNITY. THE 00Z CAPS RUN IS SHOWING ONLY 10 CM AT MOST, AND
WITH THE WIND DIRECTION BEING SLIGHTLY NORTEAST, THE COMMUNITY MAY BE
SHELTERED FROM THE WORST OF THE SNOWFALL. THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE IS ALSO VERY SHALLOW. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INSERTED
NEAR-WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL INTO THE PUBLIC FORECAST, BUT A WARNING
MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF MODEL AMOUNTS INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
RUNS.
END/CARLSEN/COLANGELO/GREENHOUGH/VAN LOCHEM
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