835
FOCN45 CWWG 121300
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST WEDNESDAY
NOVEMBER 12 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR CAMBRIDGE BAY, WIND WARNING
FOR PANGNIRTUNG, AND A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NAUJAAT.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
ALOFT, AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
U.S. NORTH INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA INTERIOR. PREDOMINANT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PRAIRIES. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPANS FROM THE
EASTERN ARCTIC SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S., CONTAINING SEVERAL
EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW SITS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RIDGING EXTENDS
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN B.C. A WEAKENING LOW IS LOCATED NEAR BAKER LAKE
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH ITS
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH UNGAVA BAY, ACROSS SOUTHERN BAFFIN
ISLAND AND INTO NORTHERN FOXE BASIN.
DISCUSSION...
AB/NRN SK..NIL SIG WX TODAY. A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING MIXED PRECIP TO NRN AB BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. THE FREEZING
RAIN RISK WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT, EXCEPT IN THE GRANDE PRAIRIE
REGION, WHERE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF INTERMITENT FREEZING RAIN
PERSISTING FOR UP TO 6 HOURS. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY AS
THE WARM FRONT TRACKS INTO NRN SK. HOWEVER, SNOWFALL RATES WILL
INCREASE OVER WESTERN REGIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AB THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA NEAR WATERTON
NATIONAL PARK. AN ALERT WILL BE ISSUED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
SRN SK/MB..A WINTERY MIX OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA TODAY - LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND
FLURRIES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY COMMUNITIES. PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH A COUPLE OF MILLIMETERS OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AT MOST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN ON THURSDAY WILL BRING SETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL FOR THE EASTERN PRAIRIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PRAIRIES FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN, SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.
ARCTIC..THE SYSTEM NEAR BAKER LAKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DELIVERING
SNOW TO THE KIVALLIQ REGION, AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES AND KITIKMEOT, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECASTED TO BE MODEST, WITH GENERALLY A FEW CENTIMETERS EXPECTED
PER 12 HOURS.
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER PWAT ANOMALY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND, HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH MINIMAL
AMOUNTS (LIKELY 5 TO 10 CM) TO IMPACT ANY OF THE COMMUNITIES.
THE MORE NOTEABLE IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE WINDS, PARTICULARLY OVER
NEARBY MARINE AREAS, WHERE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100 KM/H AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. IN PANGNIRTUNG,
LOCAL CROSS-BARRIER EASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY LATE WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 90 KM/H OR MORE FOR THE COMMUNITY.
THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES FOXE BASIN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
EVENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATH OF THE LOW, THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
ALOFT AND A FAVOURABLE WIND DIRECTION, A WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PANGNIRTUNG.
AS THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO FOXE BASIN, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MELVILLE PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN KIVALLIQ. IN LIGHT OF RECENT SNOWFALL, WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE IN
THE AREA, RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR SOME COMMUNITIES. CURRENTLY, NAUJAAT APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST PROBABLE CANDIDATE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY, CORAL HARBOUR AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES ALONG THE MELVILLE PENINSULA ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WELL.
THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL BRING A FEW CM OF SNOWFALL TO
SOUTHERN NWT ON THURSDAY.
END/KOKOLSKY/GERGELY
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