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FOCN45 CWWG 061900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT MONDAY JULY
6 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. AIR QUALITY WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MANITOBA,
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NWT. FOG ADVISORY FOR SACHS HARBOUR.
HEAT WARNINGS FOR IQALUIT, AND KIMMIRUT.
OVERVIEW...ALOFT THIS MORNING, A STACKED UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE
BORDER OF NORTHERN MANITOBA AND NUNAVUT WITH SHARP TROUGHING
SOUTHWARDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. AN UPPER LOW SITS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING TO ITS EAST OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. FURTHER EAST, UPPER RIDGING OVER QUEBEC
NORTHWARDS THOUGH SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE
ARCTIC OCEAN WITH TROUGHING OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO.
AT THE SURFACE, A 995 MB LOW AT THE MANITOBA/NUNAVUT BORDER WITH A
COLD FRONT EASTWARD OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS
THOUGH NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND A WARM FRONT
NORTHEASTWARDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER YUKON/NWT/BC/ALBERTA. FURTHER
NORTH WEAKENING 1002 MB LOW IN BAFFIN BAY AND 993 MB LOW IN ARCTIC
OCEAN.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...NUMEROUS WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN IN
NORTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. SHOWERS IN THE AREA HAVE LARGELY KEPT
SMOKE DOWN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO, BUT ONCE THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF
LATER TODAY THE SMOKE IS FORECAST TO FLARE UP AGAIN.
WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS ALSO DRIFTED INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA FROM THE NWT.
AT THIS DISTANCE FROM THE SOURCE REGION THE AQHI HAS THUS FAR
REMAINED IN THE MODERATE RANGE AT WORST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FLUSH OUT ANY LINGERING SMOKE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHALLOW AND THUS NOT SEVERE.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM LOW IN NORTHERN MANITOBA ARE AIDED
BY INTENSE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. STRONG JET SUPPORT
AND MU CAPES STILL NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-INVIGORATE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT IN
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOT OF MOISTURE
STILL AVAILABLE. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35 KNOTS OF 0
TO 6 KM BULK LAYER SHEAR MAY TRIGGER SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE SEVERE. THE LINE SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT LARGE HAIL, LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE A
CONCERN AND THE LATEST HRRR HAS WINNIPEG JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS LINE.
AIR QUALITY WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR LYNN LAKE, BROCHET, AND TADOULE
LAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MANITOBA THIS EVENING.
AIR QUALITY WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHEASTERLY INTO
THOMPSON AND GILLAM LATER TODAY.
WESTERN ARCTIC...SMOKE IS AFFECTING SEVERAL COMMUNITIES IN THE
SOUTHERN NWT. A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY MAY HELP TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS AROUND GREAT SLAVE LAKE, BUT SMOKE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO IMPACT FORT SIMPSON FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FIRE TO THE COMMUNITY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SHIFT
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SMOKE DOWN THE MACKENZIE VALLEY ON
TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MACKENZIE
MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER.
FOG IS ALSO AFFECTING SOME COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE NWT. A FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SACHS HARBOUR, WHERE FOG MAY WELL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY WHEN A WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST.
EASTERN ARCTIC...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN ARCTIC UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES LATER THIS WEEK.
HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR IQALUIT AND KIMMIRUT.
FOG IS ALSO INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING GJOA HAVEN AND RESOLUTE IN
ONSHORE FLOW.
END/LUZNY/STAUNTON/VAN LOCHEM
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