355
FOCN45 CWWG 041300
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST WEDNESDAY
MARCH 4 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...COLD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE ARCTIC
AND THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES. BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
KUGLUKTUK, CLYDE RIVER, PARTS OF KIVILLIQ AND MELVILLE PENINSULA.
WIND WARNING FOR PAULATUK AND CLYDE RIVER.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, A DIGGING TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER BC. PERSISTENT WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PRAIRIES. A COMPLEX OF UPPER LOWS IS OVER
NUNAVUT.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH
TROUGHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH BC AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO ANOTHER
LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE PRAIRIES AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC. A STRONG 966 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER DAVIS STRAIT.
DISCUSSION...
AB/NRN SK...TODAY, A WEAK VORTICITY CENTRE AND FAIRLY COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY FOR WINTER WILL LEAD TO FLURRIES, POSSIBLY
HEAVY, OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA, MOSTLY NORTH OF EDMONTON, AND JASPER
NATIONAL PARK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE, PROBABLY
MAXING OUT IN THE RANGE OF 5 CENTIMETERS OR MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE
HEAVIEST FLURRIES.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA TODAY WITH A BIT OF
INVERTED TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND THE ZERO DEGREE LINE DRAPED ACROSS HERE, MOST THOUGH NOT BY ALL
MEANS ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONG RISK OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND
THE MEDICINE HAT REGION AND PERHAPS FURTHER WEST DOWN HIGHWAY 3
TOWARDS LETHBRIDGE. TAKING CANADIAN GUIDANCE AT FACE VALUE, WE COULD
THEORETICALLY BE LOOKING AT UPWARDS OF 5 MILLIMETRES OF ICE
ACCRETION. FREEZING RAIN FORECASTING CAN BE FINICKY OVER ALBERTA,
HOWEVER. CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS WE WATCH THE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOP.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS REGIONS NEAR THE 60TH PARALLEL,
BUT AS A RIDGE DEPARTS AND CLOUD AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL PROMPTY RISE ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
FINALLY, WE'RE WATCHING CLOSELY FOG PATCHES AROUND CALGARY AND DOWN
HIGHWAY 2 TO LETHBRIDGE AND PINCHER CREEK, BUT AS OF THIS WRITING
WE JUDGE THAT FOG PATCHES AREN'T EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. FOG PATCHES WILL REDEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ALBERTA TONIGHT IN A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN SOME AREAS.
SRN SK/MB...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO
TRUNDLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PRAIRIES ALONG THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SUPPORTED BY THE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. A BAND OF SNOW IS TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE PROVINCE LATER TODAY, LEAVING A SWATH
OF 4 TO 8 CM OF SNOW IN ITS WAKE.
ANOTHER WAVE OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES. OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A BROADER AREA
OF 5 TO 10 CM OF SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
YELLOW COLD WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA FOR WIND
CHILLS OF -45 OR LOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WARNINGS
WILL BE ENDED FOR MOST REGIONS LATER TODAY.
NT...COLD WARNINGS WILL BE ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARDS OUT OF THE AREA AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. COLD
WARNINGS WERE ACTUALLY ENDED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AT COLVILLE LAKE AS
LOW CLOUD MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
NU...COLD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE KITIKMEOT, HIGH
ARCTIC AND SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ. THESE COLD CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARDS.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT KUGLUKTUK IN A FAVOURABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, WITH NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY REPORTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE
BLIZZARD FORMALLY ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE EAST BAFFIN BARRIER JET CONTINUES TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
TO CLYDE RIVER WITH 70 GUSTING 90 KM/H WINDS. WARNING LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL EASE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT BETWEEN THE POTENT LOW OVER DAVIS
STRAIT AND THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR LAKE ATHABASCA CONTINUES TO BRING
STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARDS TO SEVERAL COMMUNITIES IN
KIVALLIQ AND MELVILLE PENINSULA. BLIZZARDS ARE ONGOING IN RANKIN
INLET, NAUJAAT AND MELVILLE PENINSULA. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN CORAL
HARBOUR THIS MORNING WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
ELSEWHERE, VISIBILITIES MAY BE 1/2 SM OR LOWER IN BLOWING SNOW, BUT
WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE BLIZZARD DURATION CRITERA OF 6 HOURS. THE
LOW OVER DAVIS STRAIT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT, AND THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD, RELAXING THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL IMPROVE FOR THESE COMMUNITIES.
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER HUDSON
STRAIT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO IQALUIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FUNNELING OF THE WINDS MAY LEAD TO
GUSTS NEAR 70 KM/H WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE
COMMUNITY.
END/MOODIE/BATE
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