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FOCN45 CWWG 022000
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST FRIDAY JANUARY
2 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ALBERTA INCLUDING
CALGARY.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER
WESTERN CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED OVER THE NORTHERN BC/
AB BORDER. OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC, AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH
FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN INTO YUKON AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.
EAST OF THIS, A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GREENLAND INTO THE ARCTIC
ARCHIPELAGO. A BROAD VORTEX SITS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC,
ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST TO A
SECONDARY LOW OVER ATLANTIC CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE, A 1038 MB HIGH SITS OVER ALASKA WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO YT AND THE NWT, THEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AB, CENTRAL SK, AND SOUTHERN MB. THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
BC AND AB. A 990 MB LOW SITS OVER CENTRAL HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO. LASTLY, A 975 MB LOW SITS OVER
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.
DISCUSSION...
AB...AS DISTRUBANCES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ACROSS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR EDMONTON, STEADY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW UNDER OR NEAR 5 CM
PER 12 HOURS CONTINUE TO THE NORTH, AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE SOUTH.
FOG FORECASTING IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA HAS PROVEN TO BE A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE, AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BOUNDARY LAYER COMPETES WITH A
WEAK TO NON-EXISTANT UPSLOPE FLOW. AS OF 12PM LOCAL, IT'S LIFTED IN
MOST AREAS, BUT REMAINS AT CALGARY SPRINGBANK AND SOME AREAS NEAR RED
DEER. MANY AREAS STILL HAVE LOW CEILINGS AND MIST. THE FOG ADVISORY
HAS ENDED NEAR THE SASKATCHEWAN BORDER, WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN SLACK
OR A BIT DOWNSLOPE AT TIMES, AND TEMPERUTRES IN THE MINUS TEENS IN
CORONATION HAVE PROBABLY ALLOWED ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM INSTEAD OF
WATER DROPLETS.
A RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY TO MAYBE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF, SO IT FOLLOWS THAT
DENSE FOG SHOULD RETURN TO BUFFET THE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. THE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS OUT FOR THIS REASON, WITH THE VALID TIME ADJUSTED.
RED DEER CITY REMAINS OUT OF THE ADVISORY. WE THINK THE 3/8SM AUTO
OBSERVATION ISN'T QUITE REPRENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND IT
MIGHT NOT HOLD THIS AFTERNOON.
THOUGH IT IS A LITTLE COLDER, A BIT BELOW MINUS 10, NEARER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AREAS LIKE RED DEER FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE FOG TO RE-DEVELOP/PERSIST,
THOUGH THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE.
SK/MB...THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES SLIDING ACROSS THE PRAIRIES CONTINUES
TODAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN SK SPREADING INTO
SOUTHERN MB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
4 TO 8 CM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SK AND THEN LESSER AMOUNTS AS IT
TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN MB.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL THEN BRING MORE SNOW STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN CENTRAL SK AND INTO SOUTHERN MB SATURDAY EVENING. 24 HOUR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6 TO 12 CM RANGE, STAYING BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA.
ARCTIC...THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS CAUSING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE COASTAL KIVALLIQ TODAY. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS
TONIGHT, THE BLOWING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF.
THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE UNGAVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. MORE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED
OVER BAFFIN ISLAND, LARGELY CONSTRAINED TO THE TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MAIN COMMUNITIES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THE STRONG WINDS HOWEVER, THIS LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND THE EXTENT OF THE WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS WIDESPREAD. KIMMIRUT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT.
HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS, GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 70 TO 80 KM/H OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ON THE OTHER HAND, PANGNIRTUNG WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 50 KNOTS NEAR THE RIDGETOP,
IN THE FAVOURABLE EASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 KM/H
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY
EVENING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST, IT WILL BRING SOME MODERATE
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 KM/H TO KINNGAIT. BLIZZARD
OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN, BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THE SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND AND MAINLAND
NU. 5 TO 10 CM OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
OF 70 TO 80 KM/H WILL DEVELOP FOR CORAL HARBOUR AND NAUJAAT. ANOTHER
BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH COMMUNITIES BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, BLOWING SNOW
OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MELVILLE PENINSULA
WHERE GUSTS OF 70 KM/H ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SIMILARILY, CHESTERFIELD INLET WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO
70 KM/H WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. BLOWING SNOW COULD SPREAD INTO KUGAARUK THOUGH THERE'S SOME
UNDERTAINTY HERE AND A NORTHWESTERLY WIND IS NOT A FAVOURED DIRECTION
FOR THE COMMUNITY.
WHEN A THIRD LOW ARRIVES IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY, IT WILL BRING
ANOTHER PUSH OF STRONGER WINDS, WITH A RELATIVELY RARE DOWNSLOPE WIND
EVENT POSSIBLE FOR IQALUIT. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS, BUT WE'LL KEEP AN
EYE ON IT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
END/BILOUS/BATE
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