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FOCN45 CWWG 222000
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST THURSDAY
JANUARY 22 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE MANITOBA LAKES.
COLD WARNING MOST OF MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN, PARTS OF EASTERN
ALBERTA, AND THE GREAT SLAVE LAKE REGION. BLIZZARD AND WIND WARNING
FOR CLYDE RIVER. BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ARVIAT AND PAULATUK. WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR NAUJAAT, BAKER LAKE, AND GJOA HAVEN.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT TODAY, AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND ALASKA. THE POLAR VORTEX SITS OVER THE MANITOBA ELBOW.
LONG-WAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTH OVER NW ONTARIO AS WELL AS NORTH
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO. A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW SITS
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND PRAIRIES.
AT THE SURFACE, A 1050 MB HIGH SITS NEAR GREAT SLAKE LAKE WITH
RIDGING THROUGH NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND MOST OF
THE PRAIRIES. EAST OF THIS, A 1002 MB LOW SITS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NORTHERN YUKON SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PRAIRIES AND INTO NW ONTARIO; IT RUNS EAST INTO QUEBEC/
LABRADOR THEN CURLS BACK ACROSS UNGAVA BAY THEN ARCS NORTH-NORTHEAST
TO DAVIS STRAIT.
DISCUSSION...
AB/NORTHERN SK...THE WEATHER REGIME IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHWARDS INTO SASKATCHEWAN. COLD IS THE
SOLE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE REGION, AND THE FORECAST IS
REASONABLY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES LOCATED
UNDER THE CENTRE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
COLD WARNINGS WILL BE SPREAD SOUTHWARDS TO PROBABLY ABOUT CORONATION
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A 1 TO 4 DAY EVENT DEPENDING ON
LOCATION, LASTING LONGEST OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
WEST OF THE RIDGE, THE ARCTIC FRONT AND EMBEDDED VORTICIES WITHIN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AB. GENERALLY AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 CM.
LOOKING AHEAD, A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY , GIVING LIGHT SNOW TO A DECENT PORTION OF THE PROVINCE.
GENERALLY SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-5 CM BY SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING UPWARDS OF 10 CM.
MB/SOUTHERN SK...FOR MANITOBA, MORE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.
AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LAYER MAY BE ON THE DRY SIDE AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL; A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED
FOR ANY LOCATIONS OVER LAND. HOWEVER, A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MANITOBA LAKES AS WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE
OPEN, FLAT EXPANSE OF THE FROZEN LAKE. THOSE WINDS WILL RELAX
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE EASTERN
PRAIRIES WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS SLUMPING INTO THE
PRAIRIES BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT AS A LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
DESCENDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PLUMMET, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE -30 TO -40 DEGREES
CELSIUS RANGE AND DAYTIME HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE BACK INTO THE -25 TO
-30 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES, SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ARRIVES.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WIDESPREAD WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 KM/H WILL PERSIST FOR MANY COMMUNITIES THROUGHOUT AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLD OUTBREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
OF ANYWHERE FROM -40 TO -50, WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OF THE COLDEST
REGIONS EXPERIENCING WIND CHILLS VALUES IN THE -50 TO -55 RANGE.
THIS IS A MULTI-DAY EXTREME COLD EVENT WITH LITTLE RELIEF DURING THE
DAYS THAT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE PRAIRIES. IT WILL BE A NOTABLE
CHANGE OF PACE COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER OF THE LATTER
HALF OF DECEMBER AND START OF JANUARY.
AN ORANGE COLD WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR NEARLY ALL OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.
MANY AREAS WILL SEE RELIEF FROM THE COLD IN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS LIKELY TO CRASH SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NT...A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH. ONLY LUTSEL K'E TECHNICALLY
HIT COLD WARNING CRITERIA SO FAR BUT THE COLDEST AIR IS STILL SITTING
OVER GREAT SLAVE LAKE AREA, AND ALL IT WILL TAKE IS FOR A PUFF OF
WIND TO PUSH A LOT OF SITES INTO COLD CRITERIA.
DETERMINING IF TONIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE.
THE CENTRE OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OFF, AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE EAST OF GREAT SLAVE LAKE. MEANWHILE, CIRRUS ALONG A JET AND THE
EDGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN. WITH SOME HESITATION, WE WILL
LIKELY BE LEAVING FORT SMITH AND LUTSEL K'E IN THE COLD WARNING FOR
TONIGHT, AND TAKING ANOTHER LOOK AT FORT RESOLUTION AND AREAS NORTH
OF THAT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT PAULATUK. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 70 KM/H HAVE BEEN REPORTED, AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE 'MUCH
LOOSE' SNOW COVER HAS RESULTED IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE
COMMUNITY. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE LOCALIZED GROUND BLIZZARD OF TODAY
WILL BECOME A MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN AND
ADDITIONAL SNOW IS ADDED TO THE MIX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY MORNING.
NU...A BLIZZARD IS ONGOING IN CLYDE RIVER, DRIVEN BY THE EAST BAFFIN
BARRIER JET. IT HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN DAVIS STRAIT AND BAFFIN BAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPAWN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 GUSTING
60 KM/H WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY, REACHING AS HIGH AS
70 GUSTING 90 KM/H AND SUPPORT A LONG-LASTING, MULTI-DAY BLIZZARD FOR
THE COMMUNITY. THE BLIZZARD SHOULD COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BARRIER JET COLLAPSES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW.
FURTHER WEST, BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL ISSUE FOR THE
COASTAL KIVALLIQ COMMUNITIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS: ARVIAT (CYEK),
RANKIN INLET (CYRT), CHESTERFIELD INLET (CYCS), AND NAUJAAT (CYUT).
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE POLAR VORTEX
SHIFTS, INCREASING INTO THE 40 TO 50 KM/H RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO
70 KM/H. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER ARVIAT (CYEK) THIS
MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE KIVALLIQ COAST WILL
SEE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS TODAY WHILE NAUJAAT AND BAKER LAKE WILL SEE
THE CHANCE FOR BLOWING SNOW BEGINNING THURSDAY BUT AN INCREASING
BLIZZARD RISK HEADING INTO FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE SITES THIS MAY LATER PUSH OF WINDIER CONDITIONS MAY
BRING BLOWING SNOW OR BLIZZARD RISKS TO SANIRAJAK (CYUX) AND IGLOOLIK
(CYGT) ON THE MELVILLE PENINSULA. HOWEVER PROFILES FOR BOTH SITES ARE
QUITE DRY, DESPITE THE OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR A REDUCED
VISIBILITY EVENT.
OVER THE KITIKMEOT, SIMILAR NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 40 KM/H
SUSTAINED WILL AFFECT GJOA HAVEN AND PERHAPS KUGAARUK, THOUGH THE
LATTER COMMUNITY DOESN'T LIKE TO BLOW THAT HARD IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
VERY OFTEN. KUGAARUK'S SNOW ON GROUND SENSOR IS REPORTING A PALTRY 1
TO 2 CM OF SNOW ON THE GROUND, AND THE OBSERVER REPORTED 1 LOOSE CM
OF SNOW YESTERDAY, WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PERCLUDE MUCH OF A GROUND
BLIZZARD. GJOA HAVEN MEANWHILE HAS 50 CM+ OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
WAS UNDER 1/2 SM FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME WINDS WERE ABOVE 22 KNOTS
WITH THE LAST NORTHWESTERLY WIND EVENT. THERE'S AN INVERSION NEAR THE
SURFACE WHICH COULD REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED BUT ALSO
WILL HELP BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPMENT. A NEAR BLIZZARD HAS BEEN PLACED
IN THE FORECAST AND A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE KIVALLIQ NORTH TOWARDS
THE MELVILLE PENINSULA MAY SEE CLOSE TO WIND CHILL COLD WARNING
CRITERIA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN. OTHERWISE THE COLD
WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
END/CARLSEN/KOKOLSKY/BATE/PIMISKERN
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