558
FOCN45 CWWG 111200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT SATURDAY APRIL
11 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR IGLOOLIK, NU.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT THIS MORNING, AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
ALBERTA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA INTERIOR. IN THE NORTH, THE POLAR
VORTEX IS ANCHORED OVER THE MELVILLE PENINSULA WITH A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH THAT RUNS WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ITS CYCLONIC INFLUENCE EXTENDS ACROSS
ALMOST ALL CANADA'S ARCTIC REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, A
STRONG ZONAL FLOW SITS OVER MUCH OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH THE STRONGEST JET CORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THESE AREAS.
AT THE SURFACE, A 1005 MB LOW SITS NEAR SANIRAJAK (CYUX), OCCLUDED
AND STACKED UNDER THE POLAR VORTEX. ITS ARCTIC FRONT RUNS FROM BAFFIN
BAY SOUTH INTO LABRADOR, THEN CUTS WEST ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND
NORTHERN MANITOBA, THEN LIFTS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES AND NUNAVUT TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. WEST OF THIS, A 1014 MB
LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN YUKON WITH A WARM FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN :AB; THEN TURNS SHARPLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PRAIRIES AND NW ONTARIO. ONE FINAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS AN APEX OVER
WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A COLD FRONT SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND A WARM FRONT THAT RUNS EAST INTO CENTRAL ALBERTA THEN DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND THE
DAKOTAS.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...AN APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN BC
WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO ALBERTA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE ALBERTA PEACE REGIONS AND ACROSS INTO SLAVE LAKE, AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THEN A BAND OF RAIN OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX, THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA AND INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY 2-4 CM OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN REGIONS
OF ALBERTA HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE RED EARTH REGION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TODAY, UPWARDS OF 10 CM CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KEY LAKE AND SOUTHEND
REGIONS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO MOST REGIONS OF ALBERTA, INCLUDING EDMONTON BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS
THE COLD FRONT GAINS MOMENTUM, SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 60-70 KM/H ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
EDMONTON AND THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, SOME HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHWAY 93, WHERE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT A FEW CM
OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THIS MORNING THERE ARE ALSO A FEW FOG PATCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PRAIRIES
TODAY AND BRING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN MANITOBA, STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ENDS OF THE MANITOBA
LAKES NORTH THROUGH FLIN FLON AND THOMPSON, THAT PUSHES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT WARMS, THE SNOW MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
WET SNOW OR EVEN MIXED WITH RAIN FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH LOW
SLRS AND NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE IMPACTED AREA WILL
RECEIVE 2 TO 5 CM OF SNOW WITH THIS IMPULSE.
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE INTO THE SAME AREA, BRINGING
ANOTHER WAVE OF SNOW. IT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FURTHER NORTH,
LIKELY ALONG A LINE FROM LYNN LAKE EAST THROUGH GILLAM, AND WILL FALL
INTO A COLDER AIR MASS THAN SATURDAY'S SNOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE MORE READILY, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF 5
TO 10 CM ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH, AS WARMER AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES AND
A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR THE MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL INTENSIFY,
BRINGING STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE 40 TO 50 KM/H RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 70 KM/H POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL EASE INTO THE 20 TO 30
KM/H RANGE OVERNIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE RISK OF ISOLATED, EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN LOW CENTRE
TRACKS EAST. THERE WILL BE BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT IN WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES, SUPPORTED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY H500 FLOW
THAT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ON SUNDAY MORNING.
MUCAPE VALUES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 600 OR 700 J/KG IN SASKATCHEWAN
OVERNIGHT, THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION DRIFTS
EAST. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY,
CAPE VALUES WONâT LIKELY RECOVER DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION AND
STABLE AIR BEING WRAPPED NORTH FROM CONVECTION IN THE UNITED STATES.
WESTERN ARCTIC...A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MACKENZIE
VALLEY SO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NEGLIGIBLE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
EASTERN ARCTIC...WINDS HAVE EASED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ARCTIC OVER THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MELVILLE PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED. WINDS WONâT BE AN ISSUE FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY, THOUGH MODERATE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
SANIRAJAK AND IGLOOLIK AREAS FOR PART OF THE DAY TODAY. HAVE ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR 40G60 EASTERLIES IN IGLOOLIK TODAY, ENDING THIS
EVENING, AND KEPT SANIRAJAK WITH NEAR-BLIZZARD FOR A SHORTER PERIOD
OF MODERATE WINDS.
THE AREA SHOULD GET A REPRIEVE FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, ATTENTION TURNS TO A NEW LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE POLAR VORTEX. IT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO MUCH OF BAFFIN ISLAND AND THE MELVILLE PENINSULA AS IT
DEEPENS TO A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 970 TO
980 MB RANGE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO MANY PARTS OF THE EASTERN
ARCTIC WITH WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KM/H POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE KIVALLIQ
AND SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY DRIVE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NUMEROUS COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE REGION; ALERTS WILL BE
ISSUED LATER THIS WEEKEND AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION
IMPROVES.
END/VROLIJK/GREENHOUGH
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