008
FOCN45 CWWG 221900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT MONDAY JUNE
22 2026.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. HEAT WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF THE NWT AND
CORAL HARBOUR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SK,
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SK, TORNADO WATCH FOR SASKATOON AREA.
OVERVIEW...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SK AND SOUTH
OF JAMES BAY WITH RIDGING OVER B.C. INTO THE YUKON, AS WELL AS OVER
THE KIVALLIQ NORTHWARDS OVER BAFFIN ISLAND. LARGE UPPER LOW IN ARCTIC
CIRCLE.
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A 1015 MB LOW NEAR KINDERSLEY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN ARCTIC.
DISCUSSION...
AB...A QUIETER DAY IN STORE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SASKATCHEWAN
LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS AND RISK OF A TS IN ITS WAKE. ANY TS THAT FORM
TODAY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FUNNEL CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW, MAINLY CLOSE TO THE
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVEN THE PROVINCE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BRINGING WIDESPREAD FOG TO AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE EDMONTON AND MUCH OF THE SURROUNDING REGIONS.
SK/MB...LOW NEAR KINDERSLEY DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, ENDING
UP IN SOUTHWEST MANITOBA BY TUESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL GIVE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF SOUTHERN SK TODAY. MLCAPE
VALUES NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE - MAYBE 500 J/KG OR SO - WITH UP TO 30
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. A 90 KNOT UPPER JET TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION FROM A LOWER CAPE/HIGHER
VORTICITY ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH NON-SEVERE TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS AND/OR WEAK LANDSPOUT TORNADOES DUE TO THE HIGH VORTICITY
ENVIRONMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE AND STRONG SURFACE INSOLATION. SHIFTING
EAST, A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK DEVELOPS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS,
BUT THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE ENHANCED FUNNEL CLOUD RISK IS FUZZY
AND WILL MERGE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH, TORNADO WATCH FOR
WEAK LAND SPOUT TORNADOS AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS HAVE ALL BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO MANITOBA
AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
RISK IS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND PARKLAND REGIONS WHERE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 40 MM ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
TRAINING/SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS
IN PARTS OF THE AFFECTED AREA AND THE BROADLY ENHANCED SENSITIVITY TO
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF IN THE PROVINCE DUE TO RECENT STORMS.
NUNAVUT...HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR CORAL HARBOUR BEING REACHED
TODAY, AS WELL AS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS OF 22 TO 25 DEGREES
CELCIUS. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
ARCTIC WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. SOME ONSHORE FOG, OTHERWISE NIL SIG WX.
NWT...HEAT WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NWT AS
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BRING PERSISTENT WARM WEATHER TO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. HIGHS NEAR 30 DEG CELSIUS WILL
OCCUR ALMOST EVERY DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB-SEVERE TS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERRAIN WEST OF THE FCST REGIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
END/LUZNY/ALBERS
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