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FOCN45 CWWG 151300
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST FRIDAY
NOVEMBER 15 2024.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...BLIZZARD WARNING IN RESOLUTE. FOG ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF ALBERTA.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
SLACK WESTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OVER MANITOBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXISTS OVER SOUTHAMPTON
ISLAND WITH AN UPPER LOW TO ITS NORTH OVER THE ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE MANITOBA PARKLANDS WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND A
WARM FRONT ARCING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT CURLS NORTHWEST ALONG THE ALBERA FOOTHILLS
AND TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. TO THE NORTH A 1028 MB HIGH SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ
WITH A 1012 MB LOW TO ITS EAST OVER HUDSON STRAIT. A COLD FRONT
STRETCHES SOUTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW INTO HUDSON BAY
BEFORE CURLING BACK WEST/NORTHWEST AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH
NORTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN AND CONTINUES INTO THE MACKENZIE
VALLEY AND INTO THE YUKON.
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PRAIRIES...MAIN CONCERN IS FOG THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES REPORTED NEAR A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE CLOSE
TO CALGARY AND BROOKS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT IN THE FOG AREA AS WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THE BEST CHANCE IS LIKELY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD
ONCE AGAIN. THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA.
A NEW LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD BRING SOME WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
EASTERN PRAIRIES...THE LOW OVER THE MANITOBA PARKLANDS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MANITOBA TODAY BRINGING A WINTER MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WITH SNOWFALL BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ON A LINE
ROUGHLY FROM FLIN FLON TO THOMPSON AND AREAS NORTH OF THIS, WHILE THE
PAS AND NORWAY HOUSE WILL EXPERIENCE A MIX OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 3-7 CM RANGE BY THIS
EVENING.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN/SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH FROM WYOMING BRINGING A
WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN PRAIRIES.
CURRENTLY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
ASIDE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW, IN PARTICULAR THE RIDING
MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER WESTERN MANITOBA WITH 5-10 CM POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING, WHILE SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA LOOKS TO REMAIN AS RAIN,
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING.
WESTERN ARCTIC... STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH RESOLUTE, CAMBRIDGE BAY AND GJOA HAVEN. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS, STRONGEST WINDS AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE ALL IN
RESOLUTE. GUIDANCE THERE IS POINTING TO A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A
BLIZZARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CAMBRIDGE BAY AND GJOA HAVEN
HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THEM FALLING SHY OF 6 HOURS.
EASTERN ARCTIC...THE LOW OVER HUDSON STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TODAY AND THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ WILL PUSH EAST INTO
FOXE BASIN. FLURRIES WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF BAFFIN ISLAND TODAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OUT AND WEAKENS, OTHERWISE NIL SIG WX EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE REGION.
END/ZIOLKOWSKI/WIELKI
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