820  
FXCN01 CWAO 211730  
 
DAYS 1 TO 7 UPDATED SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION - EAST  
 
PREVIOUS DAYS 1 TO 3 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION AVAILABLE HERE:  
[HTTP://COLLABORATION.CMC.EC.GC.CA/CMC/CMOP/FXCN/20180921/FX_D1-3_EAST_2018092100.HTML]  
 
PREVIOUS DAYS 4 TO 7 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION AVAILABLE HERE:  
[HTTP://COLLABORATION.CMC.EC.GC.CA/CMC/CMOP/FXCN/20180921/FX_D4-7_EAST_2018092100.HTML]  
 
DAYS 1 TO 3 DISCUSSION UPDATE:  
VALID 12Z FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 21 2018 - 12Z MONDAY SEPTEMBER 24 2018  
 
LAKE SUPERIOR INTENSE SYSTEM REACHING LABRADOR SEA SATURDAY..  
PREFERRED GUIDANCE: RDPS/GDPS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: HIGH  
NO UPDATE NECESSARY.  
 
 
FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS ON/QC SATURDAY/SUNDAY..  
PREFERRED GUIDANCE: RDPS/GDPS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: HIGH  
NO UPDATE NECESSARY.  
 
 
DAYS 4 TO 7 DISCUSSION UPDATE:  
VALID 12Z MONDAY SEPTEMBER 24 2018 - 00Z FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 28 2018  
 
NORTHERN LABRADOR SEA SYSTEM MOVING AWAY..  
PREFERRED GUIDANCE: GEPS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MEDIUM  
NEW GDPS AND UKMET SEEM A BIT WEAK AND BRING SURFACE LOW A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS  
THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTHERN LABRADOR SEA COMPARE TO GEPS AND NCEP  
MODELS AND FOREIGN MODELS ARE A TAD MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS  
WEST OF THE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LABRADOR/TORNGATS. OUR CONFIDENCE  
HAD LOWERED FOR THE GDPS SOLUTION AND NOW SUGGEST TO GO WITH A MIDDLE SOLUTION  
OFFER BY THE GEPS.  
 
PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING TO NORTHERN QC TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH FRONTAL TROUGH  
SWEEPING ACROSS ON/QC/ATLANTIC CANADA..  
PREFERRED GUIDANCE: GDPS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: LOW  
NEW GDPS IS NOW A BIT LESS PROGRESSIVE THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING INTO  
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHWESTERN ON BY MONDAY AND AS IT TRACKS INTO HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN  
QC BY TUESDAY. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND IT SOLUTION IS REJECTED. UKMET  
HINT A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS GDPS BUT WITH QUITE DEEPER PORTION AHEAD OF THE  
SYSTEM MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN CANADA.  
 
 
THE COMPLETE VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:  
[HTTP://COLLABORATION.CMC.EC.GC.CA/CMC/CMOP/FXCN/20180921/FX_D1-7_EAST_2018092112.HTML]  
 
END/LAROCQUEM  
 
 
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